Buy low or sell: Abdullah

[Meretc01]

What's the communities consensus of him? Looks electric in college but really hasn't put it together on the field.. are you guys buying him or are you staying away from him and the lions backfield?

[sugbear65]

Still love me some Abdullah, I'm buying if the price is right. Anything under a 2018 1st value is an instant-accept for me. I'd be willing to go as high as a 1st & 2rd type value for him personally because I like him, but that is the highest. Anything over that and he's a sell to me as well.

[Lssd2012]

Sell for me. He's getting squeezed on both side from a PPR perspective - Riddick is taking away the catches and Zenner / Washington will be the goal line back. Ameer will essentially only be working between the 20s which combined with his size and injury history is a huge sell for me.

[Tsunami]

I've been unsuccessfully trying to buy Abdullah. High upside but his value has been going up too fast. Maybe not a buy low anymore. I think I like him over Coleman, Montgomery, and Crowell but not Miller or the rookies. I think I have to put him ahead of Hyde and Henry right now, but similar value.

[Kramer]

Buy for any 2nd, sell for any 1st imo. Riddick isn't going anywhere and will eat into his workload. Plus the injury issues. Most owners that have him at the moment want too much for me to be buying him.

[ninotoreS]

I'm a fan, but I think he's a sell at the moment. People think he's gonna be an RB2 with RB1 upside, but more likely he's an RB3 this year, with a very real chance to not reach 200 carries. The Detroit O-line projects to be shaky at best, the Detroit O became slower paced last year under Cooter as OC and still much prefers to pass over rushing, and Abdullah will be splitting touches with two, even possibly three other RBs, and not getting most of both the red-zone and passing-down snaps. Objectively, it's undeniably a situation warranting pessimism.

I do think Abdullah could surprise everyone if he ever got real feature-back work. But at this point I can only imagine at least one, maybe two major injuries to the Detroit depth-chart being required before it can happen.

I would rate Abdullah a buy if his owner acknowledges all these realities and drops his asking price accordingly. But that doesn't seem to happen, because his offseason hype-train in '15 was such that any current owners that also drafted him used at least a high-1st to do it. And right now, he just isn't a rational buy for anything better than a 2nd.

[rubber_duck]

For the game and a half that Abdullah played last year he was very good and the lead back. The coaches did not pull him off the field in passing situations. Instead he was on the field for 2 series, then would be spelled by Theo for 1.

I don't know where all the talk of Ameer losing passing down work started, but it is not based on team history. I suspect it comes from some ESPN or podcast "generalist" who is assuming the Lions will do what other committee RB teams have done.

[The Red Rooster]

I think you will find that the general consensus is that there is no consensus on him.

[Lssd2012]

For the game and a half that Abdullah played last year he was very good and the lead back. The coaches did not pull him off the field in passing situations. Instead he was on the field for 2 series, then would be spelled by Theo for 1.

I don't know where all the talk of Ameer losing passing down work started, but it is not based on team history. I suspect it comes from some ESPN or podcast "generalist" who is assuming the Lions will do what other committee RB teams have done.

You don't think Theo Riddick cuts into his passing down workload? He had 80(!) receptions in 2015 and 53 in 2016 (including injuries). Advanced metrics show that he is one of the best pass catching backs (ypc, ypt, etc) and far superior to Abdullah.

[rubber_duck]

For the game and a half that Abdullah played last year he was very good and the lead back. The coaches did not pull him off the field in passing situations. Instead he was on the field for 2 series, then would be spelled by Theo for 1.

I don't know where all the talk of Ameer losing passing down work started, but it is not based on team history. I suspect it comes from some ESPN or podcast "generalist" who is assuming the Lions will do what other committee RB teams have done.

You don't think Theo Riddick cuts into his passing down workload? He had 80(!) receptions in 2015 and 53 in 2016 (including injuries). Advanced metrics show that he is one of the best pass catching backs (ypc, ypt, etc) and far superior to Abdullah.

Metrics schmetrics.
The actual play-by-play game logs of 2015 show that he doesn't. The sample size is limited to just 1 1/2 games, which is not great. But it clearly shows the coaches play calling.

[ninotoreS]

I don't know where all the talk of Ameer losing passing down work started, but it is not based on team history.

It's not 'losing', present tense; it's 'lost', past tense. It's based on Riddick averaging five receptions a game since '15, and signing a long contract extension last year. A healthy Riddick isn't gonna be scaled back at a role he's already trusted and excelling in just because it would be convenient for Abdullah's fantasy owners.

The actual play-by-play game logs of 2015 show that he doesn't. The sample size is limited to just 1 1/2 games

But... that's just false. Here are the game logs. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... elog/2015/

Abdullah played 16 games in '15 and had 25 receptions while Riddick racked up 80. You're confused, and possibly basing your entire argument on Week 1 of 2016, when Ameer caught five passes. What's that about a limited sample size?


@all: This is the kind of thing I was referring to in my last post with current Abdullah owners, and why it makes him a difficult buy prospect right now in most leagues; this denial of situation-reality his owners are exhibiting is setting his price too high. I'm seeing something similar with Tevin Coleman owners.

I plan to investigate an Abdullah buy opportunity mid-season, when the projected reality has set in for everyone. Right now, it seems to be a non-starter.

[rubber_duck]

No, it is not just false. But I did have a fat finger. It should have read:
"The actual play-by-play logs of 2016 show that he doesn't. The sample size is limited to just 1 1/2 games"

And here are links to the ESPN play-by-plays. Feel free to browse them or go back and watch the 2016 games. Detroit's current coaching staff rotated Theo into the game series by series, it was not game situation dependent.

2016 week 1
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400874573

2016 week 2
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400874488

Abdullah left the week 1 game early due to injury, and Theo finished it up.
Abdullah then departed for the remainder of the season near the end of the 2nd quarter in week 2 ... and Theo finished that game up as well.

So, until I see Detroit change their game plan, I am running with what they did when Abdullah was healthy last year. Well, that and what the coaches are currently saying/doing.

[Plank]

its a risk to hold onto Abdullah, this seems like the point of no return for any ROI for him..

I personally am holding because I like the player and it gives me a reason to watch DET, but I'm very much aware that he may become worthless during/after the season.

Also the injury was the dreaded Lisfranc which isn't good for RB's ...

[kmbryant09]

I may be biased as an owner, but I'm buying Abdullah all day. I definitely agree that his 2017 fantasy outlook is capped both by Riddick (in the passing game) and Zenner / Washington (at the goalline), but I think Abdullah is dripping with talent. He will be utilized in the passing game alongside Riddick, so he should be able to catch 35 - 45 passes; and he's set to handle ~200+ carries as the feature RB between the 20's. Even without getting goalline carries, there's a lot of value for a RB with 250+ touches in an above-average offense.

I also think there are 2 plausible scenarios that lead to an Abdullah breakout:
1. Riddick or Zenner get injured, opening up more opportunities for Abdullah
2. Abdullah's talent shines through, forcing the Lions' coaching staff to leave him on the field with enough opportunity for him to become an RB1.

[Crwdstunna]

I think his talent will shine if he can stay healthy. I don't buy into the injury prone label either. Buy him for like a 1st, but I wouldn't go much higher than that just yet.