Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

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StableOfRBs
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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:31 am

trc wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:08 am
StableOfRBs wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:30 pm
trc wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:24 pm


So based on this I should expect around 120 targets for him this season? Barring injuries ofc.
Or what is the use of the statistics you provided?
That if he's healthy and on the field he should see a good target share in the Redskins offense, they put him on the field last year to use him, not just run routes and be a decoy or to block, but to involve him. I would expect that to carry over to this year as well. I acknowledged that it was a small sample size but it still shows that they wanted to get him going in the offense.
I actually do think they will involve him, but not based on extrapolating and cherry picking this extremely low sample size (catch ratio of 33,3 %).

I would put heavy weight into draft capital spent.
Again, already admitted/pointed out that it was a very low sample size (and it's not cherry picking because I didn't pick and choose any sample size, those numbers are all-inclusive).

The point of it was to show that even last year, with DJax, Garcon, Crowder and Reed playing in the 2 games Doctson was in, the Redskins still made a sincere effort to get Doctson, who was still dealing with an injury at that point, involved in the offense. Which, sure, by itself might not mean anything but combined with the high draft pick they spent on him tells me that they want him featured in the near future and had planned to do so starting as early as last year, even with a loaded/crowded receiving corps. If he, and every other receiver (Reed included), played a full 16 games I wouldn't be surprised if he had over 100 targets by the end of the year.

I'm thinking it would end up roughly like this assuming another 600 attempts for Cousins:

Crowder ~120 targets
Reed ~110 targets
Doctson ~100-110 targets
Pryor ~100-110 targets
Thompson ~50-55 targets
Everyone else ~95-120 targets

This is about what the spread was last year with Garcon, Crowder, Reed and DJax having just over 400 combined targets in 59 combined games so it's not that far-fetched and with Doctson's ability to run routes, leaping ability and ability to get separation I think he could end the year as a mid WR2.
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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:18 am

I drafted Doctson his rookie year and am holding unless he is a smaller piece in a larger trade. I have held him for a year, I can wait another month to see him (hopefully) get on the field healthy.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby trc » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:30 am

StableOfRBs wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:31 am

Again, already admitted/pointed out that it was a very low sample size (and it's not cherry picking because I didn't pick and choose any sample size, those numbers are all-inclusive).
So only using target/snap and redzone targets for supporting your view is not cherry picking?
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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Tsunami » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:37 am

If you think he's going to explode quickly (a la Odell Beckham) then this is your last chance to buy low. If you think he's behind Pryor and Crowder and Reed and so he's going to come along gradually like Doug Baldwin then he might be worth a little less next season, but probably not much less considering he's already behind Moncrief and Parker in ADP. If he misses significant time or doesn't play well this season his value could drop some more (a la Treadwell or Kevin White) but so do his chances of being good, so this might not be an ideal situation. Buy now if you believe.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby jcc6fd » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:05 am

Biased owner disclaimer*

My only concern right now with Doctson is injury. Tsunami mentioned a possible Treadwell/White outcome, but I don't see that happening if healthy and on the field. (here's where I start to make a bold leap) In Doctson's one healthy game he was targeted 5 times despite a healthy Reed, Crowder, DJax and Garcon on the roster, implying the coaching staff was ready to unleash him and that Cousins trusted him. He only caught one of the targets, but it was a monster 50 yard gain. That one game gives me more optimism with Doctson than anything you could have heard about Treadwell (because you can't feel good about anything he did on the field).

His health is a big concern and I can respect wanting to avoid him for that reason. But my point is if he's healthy, I wouldn't be worried about the other receiving options burying him.
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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Plank » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:47 am

If you believe he can be a WR1, then this is a good time to buy. Owning Doctson I'd expect full price, I wouldn't want to trade him without ever seeing him play ... I'd instantly reject low ball offers for him. (All this 2nd round talk is ridiculous in my opinion).
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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:34 am

jcc6fd wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:05 am
Biased owner disclaimer*

My only concern right now with Doctson is injury. Tsunami mentioned a possible Treadwell/White outcome, but I don't see that happening if healthy and on the field. (here's where I start to make a bold leap) In Doctson's one healthy game he was targeted 5 times despite a healthy Reed, Crowder, DJax and Garcon on the roster, implying the coaching staff was ready to unleash him and that Cousins trusted him. He only caught one of the targets, but it was a monster 50 yard gain. That one game gives me more optimism with Doctson than anything you could have heard about Treadwell (because you can't feel good about anything he did on the field).

His health is a big concern and I can respect wanting to avoid him for that reason. But my point is if he's healthy, I wouldn't be worried about the other receiving options burying him.
I watched most of his targets that game and it's a shame because they did seem intent on forcing him the ball particualrly around the goal line. Some were bad targets, at least 2 poorly thrown jump balls in the endzone from what I remember and the 50 yard bomb was a broken play. I know he can play he just needs to stay healthy.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Sterling Archer » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:30 am

Isn't he already hurt? Hamstring injuries are not to be glossed over.

I would not buy now. There's a solid chance he's much cheaper in 2 months.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby cazzie33 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:28 am

I would put heavy weight into draft capital spent.
[/quote]

That's been my experience in making offers for Doctson. Owners drafted him so high that they want equal value before getting a chance to see in game action (or inaction ) before they bail on him

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby sloth8u » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:33 am

StableOfRBs wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:30 pm
trc wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:24 pm
StableOfRBs wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:53 pm
Best time to buy would've been right after WAS signed Pryor. Because Doctson's injury was known all summer long a lot of owners that drafted June-August were aware of the risk to his season and weren't expecting as much from him (at least I know I wasn't) and he was targeted fairly heavily in the very small amount of snaps he played in the regular season last year (had a target/snap share of 19.4%, OBJ's last year was 16.9%) with half of his 6 targets being in the RZ, he did nothing to lower his value other than not being healthy which his owners were most likely prepared for so they're all pretty much holding right now rather than risk selling low on a guy who could be a big target hog
So based on this I should expect around 120 targets for him this season? Barring injuries ofc.
Or what is the use of the statistics you provided?
That if he's healthy and on the field he should see a good target share in the Redskins offense, they put him on the field last year to use him, not just run routes and be a decoy or to block, but to involve him. I would expect that to carry over to this year as well. I acknowledged that it was a small sample size but it still shows that they wanted to get him going in the offense.
lol...the guy had 2 catches...

ive seen nothing that suggest that they intend to use him in the offense to be honest. if they felt he was ready...they wouldnt have signed pryor. i had my doubts about doctson, but if i drafted him...i wouldnt give up yet for a random pick, but i could see myself selling for a top 15 or so if the situation presented itself while on the clock.

id suggest that whether buying or selling....use the on the clock pick to get your piece here.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby IBall2 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:48 am

Sterling Archer wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:30 am
Isn't he already hurt? Hamstring injuries are not to be glossed over.

I would not buy now. There's a solid chance he's much cheaper in 2 months.
2 months is to far away, his value could also be much higher in 2 months. I would rather wait until right before the season to buy at his cheapest price, he most likely wont play this week, he could play preseason week 3 if all goes well on his hamstring recovery, then he wont likely play preseason week 4. At that point, I would buy because his value shouldn't have gone up or down much. Once the regular season starts, values start to swing drastically in both directions depending on injuries and target volume from the first week of the regular season.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby jimmychoi » Sun Aug 27, 2017 5:26 pm

Yikes. Gruden stated he had soreness in his leg as the reason he didn't play. I own shares of Doctson, and believe in his talent, but it would be nice to see him play a good number of snaps in a game. Then again, I'd rather they be cautious and let him fully heal. I was looking forward to seeing him play a bit though.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Jason » Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:37 pm

Frustrated Doctson owner. Played 45 games in College, can barely make it through a practice in the pros. Trust me this is as good a time as ever to send those lowball offers for him. Like someone else mentioned, it wouldn't be as annoying if I didn't take him over Michael Thomas.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:51 pm

jimmychoi wrote:
Sun Aug 27, 2017 5:26 pm
Yikes. Gruden stated he had soreness in his leg as the reason he didn't play. I own shares of Doctson, and believe in his talent, but it would be nice to see him play a good number of snaps in a game. Then again, I'd rather they be cautious and let him fully heal. I was looking forward to seeing him play a bit though.
We just don't need him getting hurt again. Whether he played in this game or not it doesn't matter, he wouldn't be very involved in the offense at this point anyway. Have him build up his snaps through the regular season is fine with me, trend towards a 3rd year breakout. I could live with that. what I can't live with is another setback.

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Re: Is now a good time to trade for Doctson?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:06 pm

btaylor383 wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:51 pm
After a lost rookie season would now be a good time to target Josh Doctson? How much would you be willing to give up to get him?
Yes now is certainly the time to buy, but I wouldn't give up more than a 2nd and a flyer piece for him.
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