Dynasty League Football Forum

After a lost rookie season would now be a good time to target Josh Doctson? How much would you be willing to give up to get him?

owners are holding for the most part. i am at least. the belief a year ago was that he may be the best WR in the class but he fell to back half of first rounds due to injury.those owners who spent a late first likely took doctson over guys like mike thomas and jordan howard but didnt get to see if their pick was worthy.so if they have waited this long i doubt they wanna jump ship 3 weeks before the season starts. the time for this thought was late last season or even during this offseason. but now i think its a bit too late

Early 2nd might be able to get it done if the Doctson owner isn't a patient person.

Best time to buy would've been right after WAS signed Pryor. Because Doctson's injury was known all summer long a lot of owners that drafted June-August were aware of the risk to his season and weren't expecting as much from him (at least I know I wasn't) and he was targeted fairly heavily in the very small amount of snaps he played in the regular season last year (had a target/snap share of 19.4%, OBJ's last year was 16.9%) with half of his 6 targets being in the RZ, he did nothing to lower his value other than not being healthy which his owners were most likely prepared for so they're all pretty much holding right now rather than risk selling low on a guy who could be a big target hog

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:53 pm Best time to buy would've been right after WAS signed Pryor. Because Doctson's injury was known all summer long a lot of owners that drafted June-August were aware of the risk to his season and weren't expecting as much from him (at least I know I wasn't) and he was targeted fairly heavily in the very small amount of snaps he played in the regular season last year (had a target/snap share of 19.4%, OBJ's last year was 16.9%) with half of his 6 targets being in the RZ, he did nothing to lower his value other than not being healthy which his owners were most likely prepared for so they're all pretty much holding right now rather than risk selling low on a guy who could be a big target hog

So based on this I should expect around 120 targets for him this season? Barring injuries ofc.
Or what is the use of the statistics you provided?

trc wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:24 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:53 pm Best time to buy would've been right after WAS signed Pryor. Because Doctson's injury was known all summer long a lot of owners that drafted June-August were aware of the risk to his season and weren't expecting as much from him (at least I know I wasn't) and he was targeted fairly heavily in the very small amount of snaps he played in the regular season last year (had a target/snap share of 19.4%, OBJ's last year was 16.9%) with half of his 6 targets being in the RZ, he did nothing to lower his value other than not being healthy which his owners were most likely prepared for so they're all pretty much holding right now rather than risk selling low on a guy who could be a big target hog

So based on this I should expect around 120 targets for him this season? Barring injuries ofc.
Or what is the use of the statistics you provided?

That if he's healthy and on the field he should see a good target share in the Redskins offense, they put him on the field last year to use him, not just run routes and be a decoy or to block, but to involve him. I would expect that to carry over to this year as well. I acknowledged that it was a small sample size but it still shows that they wanted to get him going in the offense.

I traded Mike Wallace and a 3rd for him in July. Where I do own him, being August I'm not moving until I see him play.

I traded Parker and 12 for Doctson and 6 in my 20 team league. He came to me wanting Parker though.

I like Doctson as a prospect but I would not give up a 1st for him. His value can only continue to go down where as a 1st can't. If you can package a lesser/older player and a later pick for him (like Wallace and a 3rd as mentioned above), I think that's worth the investment. Depends on the owner in your league and his patience/situation.

Oh, and in terms of now being a good time, I'm kind of torn. I think it would've been better to buy him a few months ago. It would be better to buy him now in the sense that if he goes off his price will climb, but his price could also continue to dip if he has any more setbacks or struggles. Also there's the whole Cousins uncertainty. Me personally, I'd wait until in season and see if I could acquire him 4-5 weeks in when he's not producing.

Jason3123 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm I like Doctson as a prospect but I would not give up a 1st for him. His value can only continue to go down where as a 1st can't. If you can package a lesser/older player and a later pick for him (like Wallace and a 3rd as mentioned above), I think that's worth the investment. Depends on the owner in your league and his patience/situation.

Well that's just not true, there's several things that could cause him to gain value

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:14 pm

Jason3123 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm I like Doctson as a prospect but I would not give up a 1st for him. His value can only continue to go down where as a 1st can't. If you can package a lesser/older player and a later pick for him (like Wallace and a 3rd as mentioned above), I think that's worth the investment. Depends on the owner in your league and his patience/situation.

Well that's just not true, there's several things that could cause him to gain value

I agree. Even if they're unlikely, they're still plausible. But right now, Doctson doesn't seem to be a smart add with Pryor, Crowder and Reed in front of him. But, things change and if you believe in the talent, get him.

As far as selling him goes, I think this is the best time if you're not a true believer.

I think his value continues to go lower and there will bra better buy low opportunity. It will take him time to have weekly fantasy value and it might not be this year with many others infront of him. Owners will get antsy if he is healthy and not quickly being involved.

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:14 pm

Jason3123 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm I like Doctson as a prospect but I would not give up a 1st for him. His value can only continue to go down where as a 1st can't. If you can package a lesser/older player and a later pick for him (like Wallace and a 3rd as mentioned above), I think that's worth the investment. Depends on the owner in your league and his patience/situation.

Well that's just not true, there's several things that could cause him to gain value

Sorry, poorly worded. I meant Doctson's value can drastically go down, a la Perriman, Funchess, Adams, Agholor, other highly coveted WR's who bombed their first 2 years. And sure it could bounce back in Y3 a la Adams, but I would still rather have the 1st round pick, versus trading it for a player who really would just be a luxury addition. I mean I doubt anyone is banking on Doctson to be a startable WR. Why trade a future 1st, which is only going to increase in value, for a depth/luxury WR prospect who could possibly tank. That's what I meant.

But obviously devil's advocate, Doctson could take off and then it might cost a lot more than a 1st. I just don't find it likely since he's at best a 3rd option, probably the 4th option.

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:30 pm

trc wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:24 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:53 pm Best time to buy would've been right after WAS signed Pryor. Because Doctson's injury was known all summer long a lot of owners that drafted June-August were aware of the risk to his season and weren't expecting as much from him (at least I know I wasn't) and he was targeted fairly heavily in the very small amount of snaps he played in the regular season last year (had a target/snap share of 19.4%, OBJ's last year was 16.9%) with half of his 6 targets being in the RZ, he did nothing to lower his value other than not being healthy which his owners were most likely prepared for so they're all pretty much holding right now rather than risk selling low on a guy who could be a big target hog

So based on this I should expect around 120 targets for him this season? Barring injuries ofc.
Or what is the use of the statistics you provided?

That if he's healthy and on the field he should see a good target share in the Redskins offense, they put him on the field last year to use him, not just run routes and be a decoy or to block, but to involve him. I would expect that to carry over to this year as well. I acknowledged that it was a small sample size but it still shows that they wanted to get him going in the offense.

I actually do think they will involve him, but not based on extrapolating and cherry picking this extremely low sample size (catch ratio of 33,3 %).

I would put heavy weight into draft capital spent.