Torrey Smith Value

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gausec
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Torrey Smith Value

Postby gausec » Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:49 am

With the trade of Jordan Matthews, Torrey Smith's value has to go up, but does that make him fantasy relevant? What kind of numbers do you predict for him?
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby ericanadian » Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:56 am

gausec wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:49 am With the trade of Jordan Matthews, Torrey Smith's value has to go up, but does that make him fantasy relevant? What kind of numbers do you predict for him?
Will depend on how much Wentz has developed his deep ball.
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby carsoncity » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:17 am

ericanadian wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:56 am
gausec wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:49 am With the trade of Jordan Matthews, Torrey Smith's value has to go up, but does that make him fantasy relevant? What kind of numbers do you predict for him?
Will depend on how much Wentz has developed his deep ball.
Wentz' deep balls have been probably the strongest aspect of his training camp thus far, he's looked especially good airing it out to Smith. I think Smith is certainly worth a flier, he should stay on the field a lot and even though some were pontificating that because his contract doesn't contain a lot of guaranteed money that Smith isn't necessarily part of the Eagles plans, but I would point out that they tried to acquire him even last year at the deadline. Should be a dirt cheap player with boom or bust potential.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Sterling Archer » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:31 pm

Wait for Jeffery's inevitable injury. That will be the selling window.

Assuming everyone is healthy for 16 games, I'd guess (and that's all anyone can do at this stage) that 90 targets is the most you can realistically expect with Ertz and Agholor eating up the interior targets.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Novacane » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm

He is worth slightly less than a roster spot.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:09 pm

Sterling Archer wrote: Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:31 pm Wait for Jeffery's inevitable injury. That will be the selling window.

Assuming everyone is healthy for 16 games, I'd guess (and that's all anyone can do at this stage) that 90 targets is the most you can realistically expect with Ertz and Agholor eating up the interior targets.
I'll co-sign to this. Torrey smith is someone who you MIGHT be able to sell and get a mid 2nd for, during the season. He'll have to put up WR2 numbers tho.

His floor is what he did last season. His ceiling is 55-900-8
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Tsunami » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:29 am

I'm amazed that Torrey Smith is still being overlooked even in redrafts. I could easily see him being a fantasy WR2/3 this season, and he's only 28. He is going to be worth a lot more mid-season. Torrey Smith and Jaron Brown are the best buys in all of fantasy right now.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:07 am

Every year everyone is saying "this is the year!"

Burned too many times, let him blow up on someone elses roster this year if it happens

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Reljac » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:13 am

If Torrey Smith is healthy all year you have to wonder, who will score more points.... Torrey Smith or Jordan Matthews... their historical stats are so similar for the first 3 years of their careers, even though JMatt has a lot more targets.
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby trc » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:37 am

Reljac wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:13 am If Torrey Smith is healthy all year you have to wonder, who will score more points.... Torrey Smith or Jordan Matthews... their historical stats are so similar for the first 3 years of their careers, even though JMatt has a lot more targets.
Is 5 more targets a lot?

Granted I only checked the first 16 games, as that is what my leagues accumulate stats for.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby keebs3 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:57 am

Even with a reliable QB who can hit the long ball Smith is too hit and miss for me. I'd only draft him in Best Ball Leagues, personally.
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Reljac » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:01 am

trc wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:37 am
Reljac wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:13 am If Torrey Smith is healthy all year you have to wonder, who will score more points.... Torrey Smith or Jordan Matthews... their historical stats are so similar for the first 3 years of their careers, even though JMatt has a lot more targets.
Is 5 more targets a lot?

Granted I only checked the first 16 games, as that is what my leagues accumulate stats for.
Good point.... so Torrey Smith achieved 200 more yards on virtually the same target count as JMatt over the first three years of their careers. The rest of there stats are almost identical, including TDs, Fumbles, etc...
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Sterling Archer » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:16 am

Novacane wrote: Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm He is worth slightly less than a roster spot.
This seems like a short sighted take on the matter. I guarantee you are fielding someone worse at the end of your rosters.

The guy went 4-for-4 on WR2 numbers beginning as a rookie (0ppr). He went to a bad situation for 2 years. His current situation isn't great, but playing with Flacco isn't exactly great, either. I don't see why he couldn't put up WR2 numbers yet again at some point in the near future - either while Jeffery is hurt or on another team in the future. I'm not saying he's a great player or a premium stash, but he's only 28 and 67% of his seasons have yielded WR2 numbers, so he's not a drop, either.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby trc » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:49 am

Reljac wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:01 am
trc wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:37 am
Reljac wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:13 am If Torrey Smith is healthy all year you have to wonder, who will score more points.... Torrey Smith or Jordan Matthews... their historical stats are so similar for the first 3 years of their careers, even though JMatt has a lot more targets.
Is 5 more targets a lot?

Granted I only checked the first 16 games, as that is what my leagues accumulate stats for.
Good point.... so Torrey Smith achieved 200 more yards on virtually the same target count as JMatt over the first three years of their careers. The rest of there stats are almost identical, including TDs, Fumbles, etc...
Depending on league scoring, jmatt had 60 more receptions, and either out scored in ppr or got outscored in non ppr.

The difference is that jmatt can still improve the next years, smith probably won't improve and didn't improve.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Reljac » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:08 am

trc wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:49 am Depending on league scoring, jmatt had 60 more receptions, and either out scored in ppr or got outscored in non ppr.

The difference is that jmatt can still improve the next years, smith probably won't improve and didn't improve.
Not sure I could disagree more, Smith's situation should've improved a lot this year over last. If you do dig into his 49er stats and adjust to the poor target totals SanFran offered. While I doubt he improves to anything more than WR2 or WR3 numbers, for his current value that's a nice risk (FYI, I picked him up post 5 round draft in one league for free).

2015 Converted to 100 targets would have been:
100 targets 53 receptions 1,069 yards, 6.5 TDs which is right in line with his WR2 lines

2016 was just a plan bad year.... Chip Kelly offense caused much shorter routes and lowest y/catch totals of his career.... The 49ers only targeted him 49 times and the targets were bad, year finished with a concussion and Injured reserve. It's important to note this Chip Kelly passing offense finished last in the NFL in passing yards and virtually tied for last in completions.

If he receives targets in the Eagles offense, which seems highly plausable, it should not even slight be a shock if he goes 65-900-7.
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