Torrey Smith Value

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Novacane » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:50 pm

Sterling Archer wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:16 am
Novacane wrote: Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm He is worth slightly less than a roster spot.
This seems like a short sighted take on the matter. I guarantee you are fielding someone worse at the end of your rosters.

The guy went 4-for-4 on WR2 numbers beginning as a rookie (0ppr). He went to a bad situation for 2 years. His current situation isn't great, but playing with Flacco isn't exactly great, either. I don't see why he couldn't put up WR2 numbers yet again at some point in the near future - either while Jeffery is hurt or on another team in the future. I'm not saying he's a great player or a premium stash, but he's only 28 and 67% of his seasons have yielded WR2 numbers, so he's not a drop, either.
I was 80% joking. He should be on a roster. He won't be on mine because I try to stay away from roster cloggers. I would rather roster more of a lesser known prospect with upside on the back end of my roster. Torrey is just a guy that you are never going to feel comfortable starting but is too good to outright drop. Even if he does have a couple decent weeks to start, most will have a tough time giving up any sort of value in a trade because of the perception of his past few years.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Tsunami » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:57 pm

Novacane wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:50 pm I was 80% joking. He should be on a roster. He won't be on mine because I try to stay away from roster cloggers. I would rather roster more of a lesser known prospect with upside on the back end of my roster. Torrey is just a guy that you are never going to feel comfortable starting but is too good to outright drop. Even if he does have a couple decent weeks to start, most will have a tough time giving up any sort of value in a trade because of the perception of his past few years.
I would just like to point out that this is the same thing people were saying about Michael Crabtree a couple years ago. He was stuck in the quagmire that was San Francisco, and everyone thought he wasn't good because of that, and his value dropped to ADP 166. And then he had two solid WR2 years in a row and his ADP worked its way back up to the 50s despite him being 30. I can easily see Torrey Smith in the same situation in a couple years. I'm not sure Smith has the same talent level but I am sure he's better than most of those "lesser known prospects".
Novacane wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:21 pm I would definately do that for Parker. If it is your choice, I would give up Crabtree over [Josh] Hill.
Tsunami wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:13 pm Personally I think he's worth more as a free agent, he wasn't being utilized by Kaepernick at all. I don't think his poor stats last season were his fault at all... Crabtree has more upside than Garcon and Decker and he's a similar age, if he lands in a good spot he might be the biggest steal to be had right now.
Last edited by Tsunami on Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby motherlode » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:59 pm

I took over an orphan a few weeks ago and i cant get a future 5th for him. Hopefully that means he will blow up for a 90/1400/12 season and i'll have a cool story to tell my new leaguemates for years to come.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby motherlode » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:02 pm

Tsunami wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:57 pm
Novacane wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:50 pm I was 80% joking. He should be on a roster. He won't be on mine because I try to stay away from roster cloggers. I would rather roster more of a lesser known prospect with upside on the back end of my roster. Torrey is just a guy that you are never going to feel comfortable starting but is too good to outright drop. Even if he does have a couple decent weeks to start, most will have a tough time giving up any sort of value in a trade because of the perception of his past few years.
I would just like to point out that this is the same thing people were saying about Michael Crabtree a couple years ago. He was stuck in the quagmire that was San Francisco, and everyone thought he wasn't good because of that, and his value dropped to ADP 166. And then he had two solid WR2 years in a row and his ADP worked its way back up to the 50s despite him being 30. I can easily see Torrey Smith in the same situation in a couple years. I'm not sure Smith has the same talent level but I am sure he's better than most of those "lesser known prospects".
Also Randy Moss to the Patriots.

This post just inspired me to stop shopping him.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Novacane » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:33 pm

Tsunami wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:57 pm
Novacane wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:50 pm I was 80% joking. He should be on a roster. He won't be on mine because I try to stay away from roster cloggers. I would rather roster more of a lesser known prospect with upside on the back end of my roster. Torrey is just a guy that you are never going to feel comfortable starting but is too good to outright drop. Even if he does have a couple decent weeks to start, most will have a tough time giving up any sort of value in a trade because of the perception of his past few years.
I would just like to point out that this is the same thing people were saying about Michael Crabtree a couple years ago. He was stuck in the quagmire that was San Francisco, and everyone thought he wasn't good because of that, and his value dropped to ADP 166. And then he had two solid WR2 years in a row and his ADP worked its way back up to the 50s despite him being 30. I can easily see Torrey Smith in the same situation in a couple years. I'm not sure Smith has the same talent level but I am sure he's better than most of those "lesser known prospects".
Novacane wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:21 pm I would definately do that for Parker. If it is your choice, I would give up Crabtree over [Josh] Hill.
Tsunami wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:13 pm Personally I think he's worth more as a free agent, he wasn't being utilized by Kaepernick at all. I don't think his poor stats last season were his fault at all... Crabtree has more upside than Garcon and Decker and he's a similar age, if he lands in a good spot he might be the biggest steal to be had right now.
Anything is possible but I think he is more Michael Floyd than Michael Crabtree.
Tsunami wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:38 am I traded Jordy Nelson for him a few weeks ago. I believe in his talent long-term, I'll wait for him to develop and find a stable situation.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Space Cowboy » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:35 pm

WR5

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Tsunami » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:42 pm

Novacane wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:33 pm
Anything is possible but I think he is more Michael Floyd than Michael Crabtree.
Tsunami wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:38 am I traded Jordy Nelson for him a few weeks ago. I believe in his talent long-term, I'll wait for him to develop and find a stable situation.
I'll be quoting this one in a couple years. Still buying Floyd, still believe (still waiting...).

Jordy Nelson didn't play in 2015, pretty sure I won that trade :biggrin:

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby trc » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:02 am

Reljac wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:08 am
trc wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:49 am Depending on league scoring, jmatt had 60 more receptions, and either out scored in ppr or got outscored in non ppr.

The difference is that jmatt can still improve the next years, smith probably won't improve and didn't improve.
Not sure I could disagree more, Smith's situation should've improved a lot this year over last. If you do dig into his 49er stats and adjust to the poor target totals SanFran offered. While I doubt he improves to anything more than WR2 or WR3 numbers, for his current value that's a nice risk (FYI, I picked him up post 5 round draft in one league for free).

2015 Converted to 100 targets would have been:
100 targets 53 receptions 1,069 yards, 6.5 TDs which is right in line with his WR2 lines

2016 was just a plan bad year.... Chip Kelly offense caused much shorter routes and lowest y/catch totals of his career.... The 49ers only targeted him 49 times and the targets were bad, year finished with a concussion and Injured reserve. It's important to note this Chip Kelly passing offense finished last in the NFL in passing yards and virtually tied for last in completions.

If he receives targets in the Eagles offense, which seems highly plausable, it should not even slight be a shock if he goes 65-900-7.
Fully agree that SFO has been a disaster, and it should be close to impossible to repeat that performance, even with eyes closed.

But the improvement part I were referring to after his first 3 years. I think we have seen his ceiling. Could he repeat those numbers in PHI, sure. However his 4th year in BAL his TD-numbers saved the fantasy stats for him (49-767-11), and that was when he played as the WR2 -> which he will again this year. So I have my reservations on him (and I don't bother comparing the 2014 BAL to 2017 PHI).

Value - a 2nd rounder seems like a fair price. Though I don't think many will be willing to give even that.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Sterling Archer » Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:23 am

Novacane wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:50 pm
Sterling Archer wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:16 am
Novacane wrote: Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm He is worth slightly less than a roster spot.
This seems like a short sighted take on the matter. I guarantee you are fielding someone worse at the end of your rosters.

The guy went 4-for-4 on WR2 numbers beginning as a rookie (0ppr). He went to a bad situation for 2 years. His current situation isn't great, but playing with Flacco isn't exactly great, either. I don't see why he couldn't put up WR2 numbers yet again at some point in the near future - either while Jeffery is hurt or on another team in the future. I'm not saying he's a great player or a premium stash, but he's only 28 and 67% of his seasons have yielded WR2 numbers, so he's not a drop, either.
I was 80% joking. He should be on a roster. He won't be on mine because I try to stay away from roster cloggers. I would rather roster more of a lesser known prospect with upside on the back end of my roster. Torrey is just a guy that you are never going to feel comfortable starting but is too good to outright drop. Even if he does have a couple decent weeks to start, most will have a tough time giving up any sort of value in a trade because of the perception of his past few years.
Ah, ok, I get that. Like you, I prefer high upside, low cost prospects over guys with a low (WR3) ceiling, but where I start to shift my stance is when guys have a realistic shot at WR2 numbers, which I think Torrey does. His first four years were all WR2 seasons, but they varied wildly. 92-137 targets, 49-65 rec, 767-1128 yards, and 4-11 TDs. The only constant was high YPR (15.7-17.4). Guys with high YPR are guys with high ceilings. If he was to ever get the high targets and high TDs in the same season, you're actually looking at WR1 numbers (in 0ppr Baldwin was WR10 with 1128-7 last year).

With Alshon on the same team this year (1 year deal) that's not going to happen, but he's still in his prime and Alshon is injury prone, so it could happen in stretches this season, making him a very good spot start. And who knows? Maybe he performs well enough while Alshon is hurt that they let Alshon walk next year. Then at age 29 Torrey is the WR1. Pretty unlikely but possible. Which is exactly what could be said for the "lesser known prospect with upside" on the back end of your roster.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby maxhyde » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:43 am

Sterling Archer wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:23 am
Ah, ok, I get that. Like you, I prefer high upside, low cost prospects over guys with a low (WR3) ceiling, but where I start to shift my stance is when guys have a realistic shot at WR2 numbers, which I think Torrey does. His first four years were all WR2 seasons, but they varied wildly. 92-137 targets, 49-65 rec, 767-1128 yards, and 4-11 TDs. The only constant was high YPR (15.7-17.4). Guys with high YPR are guys with high ceilings. If he was to ever get the high targets and high TDs in the same season, you're actually looking at WR1 numbers (in 0ppr Baldwin was WR10 with 1128-7 last year).

With Alshon on the same team this year (1 year deal) that's not going to happen, but he's still in his prime and Alshon is injury prone, so it could happen in stretches this season, making him a very good spot start. And who knows? Maybe he performs well enough while Alshon is hurt that they let Alshon walk next year. Then at age 29 Torrey is the WR1. Pretty unlikely but possible. Which is exactly what could be said for the "lesser known prospect with upside" on the back end of your roster.
Except you're projecting that lesser known prospect to make it in the NFL and have a relatively high level of success, Smith is there already and demonstrated he can actually function in multiple roles in an offense.
He screwed himself going to SF for money...that was a poor business decision but he is still a decent enough player he can make an impact.

If Wallace can carve out a return I am pretty sure Smith can
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Reljac » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:14 am

trc wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:02 am Value - a 2nd rounder seems like a fair price. Though I don't think many will be willing to give even that.
He's virtually free in a lot of leagues. I got him off Waiver wire... and poster above couldn't get a 5th for him. Makes him a decent low risk acquisition, since you the capital required to get him is quite low at the moment.
12-team Non-PPR QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, TE, K, DEF
QB: Herbert, Tanny
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WR: AJ Brown, M Evans, M Williams, D London, C Olave, Jameson Williams, M Thomas
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2023: 1.01, 2.01
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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby Sterling Archer » Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:59 am

maxhyde wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:43 am
Sterling Archer wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:23 am
Ah, ok, I get that. Like you, I prefer high upside, low cost prospects over guys with a low (WR3) ceiling, but where I start to shift my stance is when guys have a realistic shot at WR2 numbers, which I think Torrey does. His first four years were all WR2 seasons, but they varied wildly. 92-137 targets, 49-65 rec, 767-1128 yards, and 4-11 TDs. The only constant was high YPR (15.7-17.4). Guys with high YPR are guys with high ceilings. If he was to ever get the high targets and high TDs in the same season, you're actually looking at WR1 numbers (in 0ppr Baldwin was WR10 with 1128-7 last year).

With Alshon on the same team this year (1 year deal) that's not going to happen, but he's still in his prime and Alshon is injury prone, so it could happen in stretches this season, making him a very good spot start. And who knows? Maybe he performs well enough while Alshon is hurt that they let Alshon walk next year. Then at age 29 Torrey is the WR1. Pretty unlikely but possible. Which is exactly what could be said for the "lesser known prospect with upside" on the back end of your roster.
Except you're projecting that lesser known prospect to make it in the NFL and have a relatively high level of success, Smith is there already and demonstrated he can actually function in multiple roles in an offense.
He screwed himself going to SF for money...that was a poor business decision but he is still a decent enough player he can make an impact.

If Wallace can carve out a return I am pretty sure Smith can
I think we're arguing the same side here.

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Re: Torrey Smith Value

Postby The Red Rooster » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:29 am

Id say his portfolio is low to quite low. Roster clogger.


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