Jordan Matthews to Bills

[remedy29]

Depends on where they have him playing is my guess. Will he be in the slot or on the outside? If he stays in the slot I could see him have an increase in targets. If they move him to the outside with Zay Jones I think his targets will decline because I think Jones is better than Matthews even as a rookie.

Can't see them using Matthews on the outside, he's never had success there in albeit limited chances but more simply he just doesn't profile as a guy that can play on the sidelines, feet aren't super quick, struggles getting separation, doesn't catch the ball at its high point and usually makes catches with his body.

Completely agree.
It's amazing how an average talent WR in Mathews keeps finding himself as a top option on a team with weak WRs.

[RightlegTucker]

Most optimistic scenario is he returns to 2015 production, but I'd be cautious in projecting a big uptick this year. The Bills presumably will want to play Boldin in the slot, which is Matthews' best position. The Eagles split him out wide occasionally last year because he was by far and away their best receiver and he was much less effective. If I had Matthews, I'd be looking to sell right now and capitalize off of the perceived value bump.

[Friction]

Bills have some serious draft capital now. If you cant compete, why be stuxk in the middle? Believe it or not, as bad as they are perceived to be, they somehow have been close to a middle pack team in the playoff hunt until late in the season.

[crisdecamposmd]

Most optimistic scenario is he returns to 2015 production, but I'd be cautious in projecting a big uptick this year. The Bills presumably will want to play Boldin in the slot, which is Matthews' best position. The Eagles split him out wide occasionally last year because he was by far and away their best receiver and he was much less effective. If I had Matthews, I'd be looking to sell right now and capitalize off of the perceived value bump.

Do you have any objective criteria for stating his decreased effectiveness when playing outside? I drafted JMatt as a rookie and have been eagerly awaiting his trade for about a year now... Philly just has no love for anybody on any of their teams, and often complain about anything they can think of. The last article I read which used advanced analytics actually made (and supported with evidence) that he's actually better on the outside than the likes of an Alshon Jeffery. This was in comparing qualities such as top speed during a route, average separation gained, and wins/losses for different route concepts. I'm pretty excited to see him finally (hopefully?) get moved around and get more opportunities for real chunk catches. But, I'd love to know if there's any actual objective evidence for his lack of production when split out wide. Considering he was probably brought in to replace Sammy, and Boldin is pretty much limited to the slot position, I see JMatt's opportunity finally arriving, going into a contract year.

[Cowboysfan33]

I see the trade of Watkins as a downgrade for him and the trade of Jmatt as an upgrade to him, at least a little bit.

[RightlegTucker]

Do you have any objective criteria for stating his decreased effectiveness when playing outside? I drafted JMatt as a rookie and have been eagerly awaiting his trade for about a year now... Philly just has no love for anybody on any of their teams, and often complain about anything they can think of. The last article I read which used advanced analytics actually made (and supported with evidence) that he's actually better on the outside than the likes of an Alshon Jeffery. This was in comparing qualities such as top speed during a route, average separation gained, and wins/losses for different route concepts. I'm pretty excited to see him finally (hopefully?) get moved around and get more opportunities for real chunk catches. But, I'd love to know if there's any actual objective evidence for his lack of production when split out wide. Considering he was probably brought in to replace Sammy, and Boldin is pretty much limited to the slot position, I see JMatt's opportunity finally arriving, going into a contract year.

Sure, I could probably dig up some analytical metrics that would re-affirm that statement, or you could google it yourself if you want to find out, or you could watch him play and clearly see he is not as effective on the outside. Two different coaching regimes played him primarily in the slot because that's where he was most effective and have said publicly as much. When they played him on the outside this season out of necessity he couldn't get separation on a consistent basis and his production dipped. Matthews has good speed but isn't sudden in open space.

He actually had more targets per game last season than he did in 2015 when he played primarily in the slot, but was less productive. If you drafted him and want to believe he'll set the world on fire this season go ahead I'm just saying expectations should be tempered based off of how he has performed in that role thus far.

[theone]

Not any talk about how this affects Alshon so far. Jeffrey was already the likely #1 target, but moving the #2 Matthews increases his ceiling substantially and really solidifies his 2017 outlook. PHI is likely left with only the uninspiring pair of Smith and Agholar as 2nd/3rd wide receiver targets so there is not much competition for targets on a high volume passing attack.

[Friction]

The offensive stats of Buffalo with and without Sammy are very similar. They scored basically the same amount of points, albeit with them using their rushing attack primarily. JMatt will be added to their offense from last year, so i could see him doing ok.

[Cameron Giles]

Matthews target pace the last 3 seasons in Philly: 103, 126, 133 = Average of 120.6
Watkins target pace the last 3 seasons in Buffalo: 128, 118, 104 = Average of 116.6

So, how is Matthews getting a bump here because of "more targets."

Targets aren't the issue for Matthews. The issue is that he's not as good as people think he is. Going to Buffalo where he's going to be in a worse passing offense with more coverage doesn't strike me as a great thing.

[ericanadian]

Matthews target pace the last 3 seasons in Philly: 103, 126, 133 = Average of 120.6
Watkins target pace the last 3 seasons in Buffalo: 128, 118, 104 = Average of 116.6

So, how is Matthews getting a bump here because of "more targets."

Targets aren't the issue for Matthews. The issue is that he's not as good as people think he is. Going to Buffalo where he's going to be in a worse passing offense with more coverage doesn't strike me as a great thing.

He was playing hurt last year and looked way less agile when you compare the tape between seasons. Maybe his knees are done, or going to be a recurring problem, but if he can get back to 2015, he'll be fine.

[carsoncity]

Matthews target pace the last 3 seasons in Philly: 103, 126, 133 = Average of 120.6
Watkins target pace the last 3 seasons in Buffalo: 128, 118, 104 = Average of 116.6

So, how is Matthews getting a bump here because of "more targets."

Targets aren't the issue for Matthews. The issue is that he's not as good as people think he is. Going to Buffalo where he's going to be in a worse passing offense with more coverage doesn't strike me as a great thing.

Agreed that Matthews isn't as good as the dynasty community thinks. I've watched every snap of his career. But in terms of 2017 he should see more targets considering he was never going to be the #1 option on the Eagles this year as opposed to years past and he might be on the Bills in 2017.

[Cameron Giles]

Matthews target pace the last 3 seasons in Philly: 103, 126, 133 = Average of 120.6
Watkins target pace the last 3 seasons in Buffalo: 128, 118, 104 = Average of 116.6

So, how is Matthews getting a bump here because of "more targets."

Targets aren't the issue for Matthews. The issue is that he's not as good as people think he is. Going to Buffalo where he's going to be in a worse passing offense with more coverage doesn't strike me as a great thing.

He was playing hurt last year and looked way less agile when you compare the tape between seasons. Maybe his knees are done, or going to be a recurring problem, but if he can get back to 2015, he'll be fine.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's productive despite his flaws. But, I don't think he's anything more than a fringe WR2 at best right now. A team's offense isn't going to get very far if Jordan Matthews is your #1 option.

[ArrylT]

Ah it is not like every single owner thinks the same way about Jordan Matthews - as an example shown in the contrast thread.

And we all know ADP only shows us the average draft price of the highest owner on Matthews. And even that currently which is around 70-75 isnt that high.

Also the OC of the Bills has a lot of history of having a more robust passing offence.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ennRi0.htm

Apart from one year in Houston all his passing offenses have been middle of the road at least

Compare that to his predecessor

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... omaGr0.htm

I think we can expect a decent uptick in passing attemps from 474 to at least 550.

[ericanadian]

Matthews target pace the last 3 seasons in Philly: 103, 126, 133 = Average of 120.6
Watkins target pace the last 3 seasons in Buffalo: 128, 118, 104 = Average of 116.6

So, how is Matthews getting a bump here because of "more targets."

Targets aren't the issue for Matthews. The issue is that he's not as good as people think he is. Going to Buffalo where he's going to be in a worse passing offense with more coverage doesn't strike me as a great thing.

He was playing hurt last year and looked way less agile when you compare the tape between seasons. Maybe his knees are done, or going to be a recurring problem, but if he can get back to 2015, he'll be fine.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's productive despite his flaws. But, I don't think he's anything more than a fringe WR2 at best right now. A team's offense isn't going to get very far if Jordan Matthews is your #1 option.

He's a big slot receiver, so he'd need the right offense to be anything more than that. Buffalo is unlikely to be that offense, so I completely agree with you on his current value.

[Tsunami]

Matthews and Ertz are both going at least a full round earlier in redrafts than they were last week.