Jordan Matthews to Bills

[Mefisto]

I feel JMatt is another one of those guys like Moncrief where the truthers will continue to make excuses for anything that goes wrong and those that don't believe in him won't regardless of what you bring to the table.

I like the guy but I don't really ever expect WR1 numbers from him. I think we are going to be getting more of the same from him. A consistent 85/1000 wit 6-8 TD's for the next 6 years or so. Maybe not what some people were hoping for from him but it makes him a great WR3 to have on your team. I'm a-ok with that.

[Reljac]

I saw a pst-trade pre-injury projection on him from one of the larger expert sites of 75-900-7 for him. So pretty much right in line with what you are saying. Good enough for WR3 value, and very ownable based on that but a disappointment from anyone thinking WR1. I agree similarly with Moncrief. Hard to think at this point he's going to be a WR1 with the yardage he's put up so far. As a buyer/seller I'm probably waiting to see if they can put it on the field before I buy at their current prices.

[Valhalla]

New Bills WR Jordan Matthews is "week to week" with a "chip fracture in his sternum."
Matthews suffered the injury during his first practice with the team on Sunday. "Week to week" is not a telling timetable, and it is unclear if Matthews will return for Week 1. Even if he does, it sounds like he is going to miss multiple weeks of practice, a major concern as he attempts to settle in with his new team. It is not inconceivable second-rounder Zay Jones opens the season as the No. 1 option.

That can't be a good way to start on a new team.

Tough break

[Friction]

So basically the offense may look similar to last year, to start. I know Zay and Q are new and that may seem like an odd statement to say "similar', but I mean moreso no Sammy (or his replacement) and no true #1 WR. Bone chip to the sternum sounds bad to only be week-to-week.

[ManuManu]

Do you have any objective criteria for stating his decreased effectiveness when playing outside? I drafted JMatt as a rookie and have been eagerly awaiting his trade for about a year now... Philly just has no love for anybody on any of their teams, and often complain about anything they can think of. The last article I read which used advanced analytics actually made (and supported with evidence) that he's actually better on the outside than the likes of an Alshon Jeffery. This was in comparing qualities such as top speed during a route, average separation gained, and wins/losses for different route concepts. I'm pretty excited to see him finally (hopefully?) get moved around and get more opportunities for real chunk catches. But, I'd love to know if there's any actual objective evidence for his lack of production when split out wide. Considering he was probably brought in to replace Sammy, and Boldin is pretty much limited to the slot position, I see JMatt's opportunity finally arriving, going into a contract year.

Sure, I could probably dig up some analytical metrics that would re-affirm that statement, or you could google it yourself if you want to find out, or you could watch him play and clearly see he is not as effective on the outside. Two different coaching regimes played him primarily in the slot because that's where he was most effective and have said publicly as much. When they played him on the outside this season out of necessity he couldn't get separation on a consistent basis and his production dipped. Matthews has good speed but isn't sudden in open space.

He actually had more targets per game last season than he did in 2015 when he played primarily in the slot, but was less productive. If you drafted him and want to believe he'll set the world on fire this season go ahead I'm just saying expectations should be tempered based off of how he has performed in that role thus far.

Ok, thanks. I'll take that as a 'no'. Well, if you ever do dig up those analytics that are objective and not subjective please update me. There are a lot of factors that contribute to production. So when I look at the advanced analytics that someone else took the time to do... I have to go ahead and trust their input over yours. He looked fine on the outside to me, and their research supports that. So, I don't know... maybe the fact that Chip Kelly put him in the slot because of the mismatch it creates (not because of his inability to play outside) carried over to the new regime really not knowing what to do? Maybe if he has Bradford instead of a rookie last year he puts up 1100? Maybe because I've seen him beast a lot of people when he gets the ball in his hands. Maybe because I've seen him win a lot of matchups on the outside. Maybe because he's in a group of 5 for the first 3 years of production that include nothing else but basically HOF WRs. I don't know.... Just trying to see if you're intellectual or ignorant. Please update me with some objectivity when you can, thanks.

I can't recall the exact number, but Matthews averaged around 2 fewer yards per target on the outside vs in the slot last year. I believe it was 7.2 to 5.2.

[ManuManu]

Also, just heard on a podcast that Matthews caught 20 of 40 targets as an outside receiver for 11 yards per catch. They didn't say if it was last year or for his career.

[Jason3123]

I think it's a push really. He probably see's about 115-125 targets. I do think there's a scenario where J-Matt can get peppered with 130+ targets, since their WR corps is atrocious. I also think it's unlikely the Bills only attempt 474 attempts again. I know they did it back to back seasons in 15/16 but Rick Dennison teams typically throw 550+ times except for 1 season in Houston where they threw around 470. Just seems unlikely the Bills are 31/32 in attempts for a 3rd year in a row.

[crisdecamposmd]

Please update me with some objectivity when you can, thanks.

Objectivity? You clearly want him to succeed because you drafted him, that's abundantly clear based on your responses. Matthews is a fine player but he has clearly been more effective in the slot than on the outside up to this point in his career. That's not 'subjective', that's the generally accepted consensus. It's a relatively uncontroversial point and a reason to manage expectations for his prospects this season.

Any objective reasoning would be great. Not really interested in generally accepted consensuses. He's on my bench so I'm not really worried about needing him, but projecting his future value requires objective reasoning (because he's going to be a free agent... and like I said, has been better than most WRs typically are over a 3 year span). Thank you for sharing your feelings on the matter, I really do appreciate them, they're just not necessary anymore.

[Cameron Giles]

I feel JMatt is another one of those guys like Moncrief where the truthers will continue to make excuses for anything that goes wrong and those that don't believe in him won't regardless of what you bring to the table.

I like the guy but I don't really ever expect WR1 numbers from him. I think we are going to be getting more of the same from him. A consistent 85/1000 wit 6-8 TD's for the next 6 years or so. Maybe not what some people were hoping for from him but it makes him a great WR3 to have on your team. I'm a-ok with that.

Matthews is one of those players who always does just enough. He's productive enough to make you think he can be great one day. He flashes enough to make you wonder if he can put it all together. He has the profile of a WR that should be alot better than he is. Ultimately, he never does. Some players just don't have it and Matthews very well may be one of them.

He's very, very fortunate though. This will be his 3rd consecutive season of being the best talent on a team with mediocre WR's. So, despite clear limitations to his game, Matthews (by default) is once again "the guy" and we think he's better than what he is.

[Valhalla]

...He has the profile of a WR that should be alot better than he is. Ultimately, he never does....

A bit premature to say he NEVER does something when there have only been two seasons thus far where he didn't live up to the hype (yet still performed decently).

He's very, very fortunate though. This will be his 3rd consecutive season of being the best talent on a team with mediocre WR's.

Yeah...he's super fortunate to have had those statistical stalwarts throwing to him thus far.
It would suck for him to be sharing the field with a guy like Jordy, Mike Thomas, Julio, Brown, or Hilton.

[Cameron Giles]

A bit premature to say he NEVER does something when there have only been two seasons thus far where he didn't live up to the hype (yet still performed decently).

Yeah...he's super fortunate to have had those statistical stalwarts throwing to him thus far.
It would suck for him to be sharing the field with a guy like Jordy, Mike Thomas, Julio, Brown, or Hilton.

On the same note, if Matthews was on a team with good WR's, he would not be nearly as fantasy relevant. He may turn into a better real life WR though. Matthews is very lucky that he continues to be masqueraded as a team's WR1, despite not doing anything to resemble one.

I used to be much higher on Matthews than I currently am. I see a solid player, but I don't see any traits of a great player. I don't doubt that he'll continue to be productive as an 800-900 yard receiver. He may even hit 1,000 yards a few times. But, I don't think he's a player that you build your gameplan around to win games. Basically, he's shown nothing special because...he isn't special. He's just good enough. There's nothing wrong with that unless someone truthfully feels he is great.