Sammy Watkins to Rams

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:26 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:02 pm
Valhalla wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:22 pm
I think at the close of this year Sammy owners will still be griping about how much better Sammy is than Kupp and how stupid Goff is for not targeting him as the heavy favorite.
That will certainly be the case. As a Parker fan I've been bitching about Tannehill and Landry for 2 years now.

Watkins just strikes me as one of those guys who never seems to deliver, and there's excuses and he's young and his situation is bad so any flaws are overlooked. Then one day he's in his mid-late 20s and still not delivering what we'd hoped and you can't keep making excuses anymore. I thought I could at least start him as a flex in the league I own him but I can't even do that.

Edit: Watkins also believes the earth is flat.
This reads like Michael Crabtree in San Francisco. Battled injuries and bad/conservative QB play for his tenure there. Goes to Oakland, stays healthy, Carr emerges as a Top 10 QB and Crabtree starts putting up WR1 numbers.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm

Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.

edit: oh my god https://www.google.com/search?client=op ... 8&oe=UTF-8

Sammy is dead to me.

I don't expect athletes to be geniuses, but I do expect them to be able to think critically on a basic level, like any human being worth their carbon-footprint.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:04 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm
Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.


edit: oh my god https://www.google.com/search?client=op ... 8&oe=UTF-8

Sammy is now dead to me.
In terms of total points, Crabtree was WR12 in PPR last season.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm

Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:10 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm
Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
Full PPR is gradually becoming the default format. Either way, Crabtree put up WR1 numbers in some fashion last season.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby cweds » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm
Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Team 1 (2nd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, McGuire, Lacy, J. Richard, Collins, Carson
WR: Adams, T. Hill, M. Bryant, Thielen, Golladay, Taywan Taylor, C. Henderson, Mitchell, JJ Nelson
TE: Kittle, Ebron, Fleener, J. Smith, Shaheen
2018: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 2 (1st season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: Kamara, Dixon, Carson, De. Washington, Conner, Lacy, Henderson, Jon. Williams
WR: Allen, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, Doctson, Treadwell, JJSS, Godwin, Henderson, C. Williams, Hogan
TE: Kelce, Njoku, Shaheen, Butt
2018: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm

Dynasty24 wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm
Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
12 Team .5 PPR, .2 PPCarry, TE 1PPR, 6 pt passing TDs, -3.5 per Int, 1pt/20 Return Yds
25 Player Rosters, keep 20, start 1QB 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE 1DST

QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Mike Gillislee, James Conner, Austin Ekeler
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp, Rashard Higgins
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith
DSTs: Cardinals

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby skip » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:08 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:10 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm
Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
Full PPR is gradually becoming the default format. Either way, Crabtree put up WR1 numbers in some fashion last season.
Gradually??? It should be referred to as "standard" as it is the majority format from my experience. In the last 10+ years I've played in one half ppr league and all of the rest are full ppr.
When the ignorant are out of arguments they fall back on name calling, vulgarity, and threats.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:44 pm

skip wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:08 pm

Gradually??? It should be referred to as "standard" as it is the majority format from my experience. In the last 10+ years I've played in one half ppr league and all of the rest are full ppr.
Give it another couple of years and it will be the standard. The rise of DFS is pushing PPR that way. Even ESPN converted to it as the default.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ericanadian » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm

StableOfRBs wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm
Dynasty24 wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm
Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Trubisky, Garoppolo
RB - Montgomery, Henry, Bernard, Foreman, Booker, Prosise, Darkwa
WR - Julio, D. Bryant, Watkins, Lee, Gordon, Kupp
TE - Kelce, DeValve
LB - Kuechly, Shazier
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - Joseph, Neal, Peppers
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby JFever » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:59 pm

Currently in 6 dynasty leagues. 5 are full ppr and one is .75 ppr. I think its safe to say that full ppr is much more the standard than say no ppr.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:11 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm
StableOfRBs wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm
Dynasty24 wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm


https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
Ah, see I was trying to find the PFR definition for deep and short passes and couldn't find anything, figured they went with the standard NFL definitions where short is <10 yards and deep is >20, don't have a PFF subscription so I don't have access to all their data (also that 18 yarder for Kupp was from the 18-yard line so it's possible that it went 20 yards through the air when factoring in the length of the end zone but that's whatever).

Either way (and even though it's a small sample size) Kupp is getting targeted downfield more than Watkins is and, worse for Watkins owners, it's working.
12 Team .5 PPR, .2 PPCarry, TE 1PPR, 6 pt passing TDs, -3.5 per Int, 1pt/20 Return Yds
25 Player Rosters, keep 20, start 1QB 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE 1DST

QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Mike Gillislee, James Conner, Austin Ekeler
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp, Rashard Higgins
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith
DSTs: Cardinals

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ericanadian » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:08 am

StableOfRBs wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:11 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm
StableOfRBs wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm


Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
Ah, see I was trying to find the PFR definition for deep and short passes and couldn't find anything, figured they went with the standard NFL definitions where short is <10 yards and deep is >20, don't have a PFF subscription so I don't have access to all their data (also that 18 yarder for Kupp was from the 18-yard line so it's possible that it went 20 yards through the air when factoring in the length of the end zone but that's whatever).

Either way (and even though it's a small sample size) Kupp is getting targeted downfield more than Watkins is and, worse for Watkins owners, it's working.
That's a good point and explains why I have one less pass and reception than the PFF article states (had Goff at 5 for 8). PFF is probably measuring the depth into the end zone while the NFL does not. Thanks!

I don't have a PFF subscription either (was like $200 a month, which is ridiculous), but I grab the depth of target data off of NFLGSIS. It's ugly and a bit labour intensive, but it's interesting enough to me to make it worth the effort.

Also, PFR only has short and deep passes, which is why the cutoff is at 15. I suspect they grab the definitions from NFLGSIS, and I have no idea why intermediate passes do not exist in their world.
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Trubisky, Garoppolo
RB - Montgomery, Henry, Bernard, Foreman, Booker, Prosise, Darkwa
WR - Julio, D. Bryant, Watkins, Lee, Gordon, Kupp
TE - Kelce, DeValve
LB - Kuechly, Shazier
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - Joseph, Neal, Peppers
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Plank » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:19 am

so much for a college education ...
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby skip » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:31 am

I'm not going to defend Watkins' position regarding a flat earth, but the insinuation that the education system teaches things that are only factual is patently false. I'm also not sure what it has to do with playing football.
When the ignorant are out of arguments they fall back on name calling, vulgarity, and threats.


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