Worried about Rookies?

[Moneyball_85]

With all of this recent chatter about rookies taking a backseat, are you disappointed about their situations or is this standard? I've never had luxury of drafting so early so I never really paid attention to previous years.

Mixon (3rd string; Jeremy Hill possible starter all year)
Fournette (sharing carries and Ivory getting goal line)
McCafferey (splitting carries and J-Stew getting goal line)
Davis (missing valuable time in camp on an already run-based offense)

[Needalife]

All reason why Cook is the new #1. LOL

All of your concerns/callouts are valid. That said, I think they only apply to year one and all of these guys have a nice longer-term trajectory. This year, Cook and Fournette will be very viable starting options and McCaffrey as a flex. I think Mixon may gain steam by mid season or down the stretch. I think Davis will be up and down all season and look like a typical first year wideout.

As of today... I rank them Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Mixon, Davis.

[FiremanEd]

No concerns. The cream rises to the top. We haven't even seen a preseason game for them yet. Let the talent start to come through. Way to early to have any concerns. Coaches show respect to vets and make the rookies earn their roles. All part of the process.

[mclilj]

No concerns. The cream rises to the top. We haven't even seen a preseason game for them yet. Let the talent start to come through. Way to early to have any concerns. Coaches show respect to vets and make the rookies earn their roles. All part of the process.

agree for the most part but would be a tad worried about Mixon's role this year. People were drafting him to be a plug and play RB but that just doesn't seem like it's going to be the case. I'm pretty stoked I got Cook at 5 after all the recent reporting that has come out.

[Friction]

We are still talking dynasty, right? Unless this is a redraft question, my top four rookies do not change.

[Tsunami]

Cook is the one I'm most worried about. Murray and McKinnon are better competition than the other situations. They're just injured right now so Cook is getting the camp touches, doesn't necessarily project to the regular season.

Anyways if you're playing a dynasty league there's no reason to be concerned about a top rookie not performing immediately in the first season. We've been spoiled by OBJ and Evans and Zeke but traditionally those were the exceptions. Jonathan Stewart in particular is near the end of his career, so I wouldn't be concerned about McCaffrey after 2017 unless they draft another RB next season (like they did to DeAngelo Williams with Stewart).

If you're playing in a redraft I'm beginning to be concerned about Mixon, I was always expecting Stewart to start, and I don't expect much from Cook because I foresee a lackluster committee. I think Corey Davis is still in line for enough opportunities to break out. I don't know what to think about Fournette but I certainly don't expect as much as Zeke last year. I used to consider Ivory to be very good, I don't know if last year was his fault or if that offense is just very bad.

[Reljac]

Early in the rookie draft, should be talent over opportunity. I remember when some people thought that Adrian Peterson not outright winning the job over Chester Taylor was a big deal in rookie drafts.

He ended up going third in my leagues Rookie draft although arguable Calvin Johnson was not a bad #1 pick. Although some thought that Chris Henry (Tennessee) & Brandon Jackson (Green Bay) would be the better picks than AP because they were looking to own their jobs.

[mclilj]

Cook is the one I'm most worried about. Murray and McKinnon are better competition than the other situations. They're just injured right now so Cook is getting the camp touches, doesn't necessarily project to the regular season.

Sorry but Gio + Hill > Murray and McKinnon

[sugbear65]

When the realization hits that rookies may not be automatic studs and gaurenteed starting jobs, it is not a time to panic. It's a good thing, it means the rookie fever has finally passed through your system.

[Reljac]

Whenver I start to feel rookie fever take hold... I try to look back at drafts from 5+ years ago... and you quickly realize how few after the first half of the first round will be relevant EVER!

2013
ROUND 1
1.7 Ball, Montee RB DEN 4 min 36 sec 26.0/93.0
1.8 Vereen, Shane RB NE 24 min 27 sec 52.0/96.0
1.9 Wheaton, Markus WR PIT 1 min 20 sec 0.0/5.0
1.10 Woods, Robert WR BUF 30 min 44 sec 0.0/73.0
1.11 Lattimore, Marcus RB SF 28 min 19 sec 0.0/0.0
1.12 Allen, Keenan WR SD 20 min 32 sec 137.0/187.0
ROUND 2
PICK TEAM PLAYER ELAPSED TIME PTS
1 Manuel, EJ QB BUF 14 hrs 52 min 19 sec 0.0/124.0
2 Michael, Christine RB SEA 25 min 33 sec 0.0/6.0
3 Eifert, Tyler TE CIN 1 hrs 32 min 0 sec 8.0/49.0
4 Cameron, Jordan TE CLE 3 hrs 43 min 38 sec 19.0/133.0
5 Stacy, Zac RB STL 3 hrs 29 min 58 sec 75.0/162.0
6 Davis, Knile RB KC 7 hrs 50 min 21 sec 0.0/68.0
7 Hunter, Justin WR TEN 1 hrs 27 min 41 sec 0.0/61.0
8 Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE 4 hrs 44 min 25 sec 57.0/69.0
9 Dobson, Aaron WR NE 3 min 5 sec 0.0/78.0
10 Smith, Geno QB NYJ 2 hrs 29 min 39 sec 0.0/182.0
11 Weeden, Brandon QB CLE 26 min 20 sec 16.0/87.0
12 *Bryant, Matt K ATL 0 sec 77.0/113.0




2012
ROUND 1
1.7 Wilson, David RB NYG 23 min 22 sec 0.0/66.0
1.8 Floyd, Michael WR ARI 1 hrs 36 min 34 sec 0.0/62.0
1.9 Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN 1 hrs 34 sec 5.0/43.0
1.10 Pead, Isaiah RB STL 7 min 19 sec 0.0/3.0
1.11 Hill, Stephen WR NYJ 10 hrs 57 min 55 sec 0.0/40.0
1.12 Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI 7 hrs 46 min 0 sec 0.0/51.0
ROUND 2
PICK TEAM PLAYER ELAPSED TIME PTS
2.1 Bullock, Randy K HOU 4 hrs 6 min 43 sec 0.0/0.0
2.2 Randle, Rueben WR NYG 3 hrs 18 min 16 sec 0.0/44.0
2.3 Quick, Brian WR STL 7 hrs 56 min 40 sec 0.0/23.0
2.4 Fleener, Coby TE IND 6 min 25 sec 16.0/38.0
2.5 Turbin, Robert RB SEA 6 hrs 21 min 5 sec 0.0/51.0
2.6 Gordon, Josh WR CLE 2 hrs 3 min 34 sec 88.0/103.0
2.7 Miller, Lamar RB MIA 2 hrs 10 min 25 sec 0.0/30.0
2.8 Royster, Evan RB WAS 11 min 41 sec 0.0/31.0
2.9 Broyles, Ryan WR DET 12 hrs 23 min 52 sec 0.0/43.0
2.10 James, LaMichael RB SF 1 hrs 38 min 50 sec 0.0/23.0
2.11 Hartley, Garrett K NO 1 hrs 22 min 17 sec 35.0/109.0
2.12 Jennings, Rashad RB JAC 1 hrs 33 min 51 sec 19.0/47.0

[Friction]

Whenver I start to feel rookie fever take hold... I try to look back at drafts from 5+ years ago... and you quickly realize how few after the first half of the first round will be relevant EVER!

2013
ROUND 1
1.7 Ball, Montee RB DEN 4 min 36 sec 26.0/93.0
1.8 Vereen, Shane RB NE 24 min 27 sec 52.0/96.0
1.9 Wheaton, Markus WR PIT 1 min 20 sec 0.0/5.0
1.10 Woods, Robert WR BUF 30 min 44 sec 0.0/73.0
1.11 Lattimore, Marcus RB SF 28 min 19 sec 0.0/0.0
1.12 Allen, Keenan WR SD 20 min 32 sec 137.0/187.0
ROUND 2
PICK TEAM PLAYER ELAPSED TIME PTS
1 Manuel, EJ QB BUF 14 hrs 52 min 19 sec 0.0/124.0
2 Michael, Christine RB SEA 25 min 33 sec 0.0/6.0
3 Eifert, Tyler TE CIN 1 hrs 32 min 0 sec 8.0/49.0
4 Cameron, Jordan TE CLE 3 hrs 43 min 38 sec 19.0/133.0
5 Stacy, Zac RB STL 3 hrs 29 min 58 sec 75.0/162.0
6 Davis, Knile RB KC 7 hrs 50 min 21 sec 0.0/68.0
7 Hunter, Justin WR TEN 1 hrs 27 min 41 sec 0.0/61.0
8 Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE 4 hrs 44 min 25 sec 57.0/69.0
9 Dobson, Aaron WR NE 3 min 5 sec 0.0/78.0
10 Smith, Geno QB NYJ 2 hrs 29 min 39 sec 0.0/182.0
11 Weeden, Brandon QB CLE 26 min 20 sec 16.0/87.0
12 *Bryant, Matt K ATL 0 sec 77.0/113.0




2012
ROUND 1
1.7 Wilson, David RB NYG 23 min 22 sec 0.0/66.0
1.8 Floyd, Michael WR ARI 1 hrs 36 min 34 sec 0.0/62.0
1.9 Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN 1 hrs 34 sec 5.0/43.0
1.10 Pead, Isaiah RB STL 7 min 19 sec 0.0/3.0
1.11 Hill, Stephen WR NYJ 10 hrs 57 min 55 sec 0.0/40.0
1.12 Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI 7 hrs 46 min 0 sec 0.0/51.0
ROUND 2
PICK TEAM PLAYER ELAPSED TIME PTS
2.1 Bullock, Randy K HOU 4 hrs 6 min 43 sec 0.0/0.0
2.2 Randle, Rueben WR NYG 3 hrs 18 min 16 sec 0.0/44.0
2.3 Quick, Brian WR STL 7 hrs 56 min 40 sec 0.0/23.0
2.4 Fleener, Coby TE IND 6 min 25 sec 16.0/38.0
2.5 Turbin, Robert RB SEA 6 hrs 21 min 5 sec 0.0/51.0
2.6 Gordon, Josh WR CLE 2 hrs 3 min 34 sec 88.0/103.0
2.7 Miller, Lamar RB MIA 2 hrs 10 min 25 sec 0.0/30.0
2.8 Royster, Evan RB WAS 11 min 41 sec 0.0/31.0
2.9 Broyles, Ryan WR DET 12 hrs 23 min 52 sec 0.0/43.0
2.10 James, LaMichael RB SF 1 hrs 38 min 50 sec 0.0/23.0
2.11 Hartley, Garrett K NO 1 hrs 22 min 17 sec 35.0/109.0
2.12 Jennings, Rashad RB JAC 1 hrs 33 min 51 sec 19.0/47.0

I was waiting to see 2014 too..... No, I agree with you and think its pretty funny to look back at how much of dart throws these really are. But will it ever change the FEVER?? Probably not much.

[Cameron Giles]

It's not said enough on here, but...

Stop drafting rookies and expecting immediate fantasy impact.

Sure, a few rookies will be really good right away, but it's a losing strategy to expect it to happen. Even early draft picks are going to struggle for a while. 2014 was the anomaly of rookie seasons and is unlikely to be repeated for a long time. It's fun watching rookies get their start and figure it all out, but in terms of winning fantasy leagues, you are doing a huge disservice to yourself by expecting them to help you win.

I wouldn't be concerned at all. Think about the long haul and not 2017.

[jordanzs]

Did the person who took Randy Bullock ahead of Lamar Miller hand in his dynasty card & step down to redrafters only?

[Reljac]

Did the person who took Randy Bullock ahead of Lamar Miller hand in his dynasty card & step down to redrafters only?

I think that was a total homer pick, because of both his college and pro team landing spots. Was a bad pick and definitely hurt that team, but he's not a bad owner in general and has made some great picks in the past.

[Reljac]

I was waiting to see 2014 too..... No, I agree with you and think its pretty funny to look back at how much of dart throws these really are. But will it ever change the FEVER?? Probably not much.

Yeah, 2014 really messed with a lot of people in terms of expectations from rookies. I only look back at the older drafts to reset my rookie fever. I doubt it will work for everyone, the hype is so big this time of year and so often the glowing praise of coaches and comparisons of rookies to HoFers is too.