Donte Moncrief Value [POLL]

[_yeti]

If that can change that fast, how is ADP the be-all measure?

Agreed. There are clearly some people who subscribe to it as though that is the proper valuation in every league. On the DLF forum there is generally too much value placed on age and upside. Consider Moncrief and DT. Until this current month, the two have been within 5 draft spots of one another for over a year. From October thru December, Moncrief was being drafted EARLIER, which is ridiculous. There is also a general lack of willingness to move players up or down rankings without an extreme event taking place. IMO, Moncrief has been overvalued for 2+ years. He hasn't done anything significant to drop that valuation so people who like him hang on. To those who never had him that high, they aren't going to suddenly become believers because there have been no indicators to move him up either. And it works in the reverse...like a Crowder...he was never valued that highly so there is hesitation to move him up.

Exactly.

[Reljac]

There is no right value, depends on your leaguemates... but go check twitter

Poll on twitter w/ 63 votes

Fantasy Pros list him as player value 30 and top 12 pick as value of only 25.

As I've said repeatedly there is no right price and depends on the perception of owners in your league as well as those owners current teams. However, right now, there are numerous trades and valuations of Crowder going down at a price I'd never pay and that is consistent with both his ADP and his expert rankings.

[maxhyde]

There is no right value, depends on your leaguemates... but go check twitter

Poll on twitter w/ 63 votes

Fantasy Pros list him as player value 30 and top 12 pick as value of only 25.

Crowder will trade and is trading for more than Moncrief in all my leagues. Later 1st (8+) or he isn't moving. People care about production and Crowder has produced in back to back seasons.
Moncrief is still essentially what he is during his rookie draft...an athletic flier in a great situation but 3 years in has yet to take advantage. He could explode certainly but lack of opportunity hasn't his problem to this point

[Reljac]

I agree. Seems to be the 'steady eddy' vs. "High risk-reward" comparison. Both are certainly situation based on your team. I mean for my team in sig the last thing I would do is acquire a Crowder type at WR unless they were a free pickup in draft or free agency.

[skip]

I agree. Seems to be the 'steady eddy' vs. "High risk-reward" comparison. Both are certainly situation based on your team. I mean for my team in sig the last thing I would do is acquire a Crowder type at WR unless they were a free pickup in draft or free agency.

So you just spent a ton of time in this thread about the value of Moncrief basing it on ADP and then throw all of that out the window with Crowder saying he's only worth a free pick up to you?

[Reljac]

So you just spent a ton of time in this thread about the value of Moncrief basing it on ADP and then throw all of that out the window with Crowder saying he's only worth a free pick up to you?

I believe I said, Crowder was worth a late first, which is further evidenced by other fantasy sites, twitter, and our forum trade discussions... I also said I can not roster him at that cost and would be a seller rather than a buyer with the roster in my signature as I don't need a steady player with a lower ceiling. However, I did caveat I would draft him or pick him up if available...

C'mon, it's really not that hard to understand

[skip]

So you just spent a ton of time in this thread about the value of Moncrief basing it on ADP and then throw all of that out the window with Crowder saying he's only worth a free pick up to you?

I believe I said, Crowder was worth a late first, which is further evidenced by other fantasy sites, twitter, and our forum trade discussions... I also said I can not roster him at that cost and would be a seller rather than a buyer with the roster in my signature as I don't need a steady player with a lower ceiling. However, I did caveat I would draft him or pick him up if available...

C'mon, it's really not that hard to understand

So why be so critical of people who do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick? Do I need to make a statement that I would "not roster him at that cost"? I'm pretty sure that's the value discussion of this thread. There are people (myself among them) that do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick.

It shouldn't be that hard to understand.

[Reljac]

So why be so critical of people who do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick? Do I need to make a statement that I would "not roster him at that cost"? I'm pretty sure that's the value discussion of this thread. There are people (myself among them) that do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick.

It shouldn't be that hard to understand.

Because this thread was posted as what is the value of Donte Moncrief...

Not How much are you willing to trade to acquire Donte Moncrief.... glaringly obvious that people who would never own him wouldn't pay much.

[skip]

So why be so critical of people who do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick? Do I need to make a statement that I would "not roster him at that cost"? I'm pretty sure that's the value discussion of this thread. There are people (myself among them) that do not value Moncrief as a 1st round pick.

It shouldn't be that hard to understand.

Because this thread was posted as what is the value of Donte Moncrief...

Not How much are you willing to trade to acquire Donte Moncrief.... glaringly obvious that people who would never own him wouldn't pay much.

So then why have a value discussion at all? Why ask for people's opinions on players? Why even reference "expert" opinions? Based on your philosophy, opinions are meaningless. Just look at the ADP and that is a player's value? How do you even arrive at that valuation? Why are there people who like him MORE than his ADP? Why are those who like him LESS than his ADP?

I collected sports cards for years and would make a statement like "this card is worth $125". My father would respond, "it's only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it." Every league is unique and value is based on opinions. If no one is willing to pay a 1st round pick in a league then a player is not worth a 1st round pick - regardless of what the replies are on a twitter poll or what ADP shows is happening in a startup.

[Reljac]

I collected sports cards for years and would make a statement like "this card is worth $125". My father would respond, "it's only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it." Every league is unique and value is based on opinions. If no one is willing to pay a 1st round pick in a league then a player is not worth a 1st round pick - regardless of what the replies are on a twitter poll or what ADP shows is happening in a startup.

Exactly why I say it's unhelpful to tell other community users that the card is worth $5 when it's well documented that others are paying $125 for it, just because you are only willing to pay $5 for it.

[ArrylT]

Crowder will trade and is trading for more than Moncrief in all my leagues. Later 1st (8+) or he isn't moving. People care about production and Crowder has produced in back to back seasons.
Moncrief is still essentially what he is during his rookie draft...an athletic flier in a great situation but 3 years in has yet to take advantage. He could explode certainly but lack of opportunity hasn't his problem to this point

If you extrapolate Moncriefs production over a full season he would have produced about the same as Crowder. Crowder was 12.1 ppg in ppr while Moncrief was 11.4 (and thats including the game where he got injured early). And I think thats a conservative extrapolation. A fully healthy Moncrief could theoretically have reached Davante Adams production.

Do people really feel Crowder is going to grab that many more targets than he did last year? I think it is reasonable to expect Crowders target share to equal about what he got last year, and maybe at best what J. Matthews got last year - so in the 100-120 range. I get that people think he has Jarvis Landry production upside but does he have a clear path to that target volume without making assumptions about other players getting injured?

[ArrylT]

I collected sports cards for years and would make a statement like "this card is worth $125". My father would respond, "it's only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it." Every league is unique and value is based on opinions. If no one is willing to pay a 1st round pick in a league then a player is not worth a 1st round pick - regardless of what the replies are on a twitter poll or what ADP shows is happening in a startup.

Exactly why I say it's unhelpful to tell other community users that the card is worth $5 when it's well documented that others are paying $125 for it, just because you are only willing to pay $5 for it.

One of the most enjoyable challenges, imho, is where everyone values a rookie pick, and especially how much a 2nd is worth in correlation to a 1st. Lets assume for a second that $125 = option B (1.06-1.12). How many mid to late seconds can get you a mid-to-late 1st?

If we assume 3 2nds could secure you a 1st, then a late 2nd is like $45. If we assume 2, then it is more like $65.

Basically what I am saying is that depending on how an owner values a late 2nd in comparision to a 1st also has to be taken into consideration. Irregardless I would say $5 is more like a 4th.

And of course rookie picks have different values at different times of the year.

[lukkynumber13]

He's worth about the 1.07-1.10

[maxhyde]

Crowder will trade and is trading for more than Moncrief in all my leagues. Later 1st (8+) or he isn't moving. People care about production and Crowder has produced in back to back seasons.
Moncrief is still essentially what he is during his rookie draft...an athletic flier in a great situation but 3 years in has yet to take advantage. He could explode certainly but lack of opportunity hasn't his problem to this point

If you extrapolate Moncriefs production over a full season he would have produced about the same as Crowder. Crowder was 12.1 ppg in ppr while Moncrief was 11.4 (and thats including the game where he got injured early). And I think thats a conservative extrapolation. A fully healthy Moncrief could theoretically have reached Davante Adams production.

Do people really feel Crowder is going to grab that many more targets than he did last year? I think it is reasonable to expect Crowders target share to equal about what he got last year, and maybe at best what J. Matthews got last year - so in the 100-120 range. I get that people think he has Jarvis Landry production upside but does he have a clear path to that target volume without making assumptions about other players getting injured?

Extrapolating is where I think people artificially inflate value to what they would like with a reasonable premise. Moncrief had scored a TD about every 10 catches until last year when he scored one every 5 catches. Extrapolating that is...well ill advised

[ArrylT]

*shrugs* projections are a projection for a reason. I see nothing different in looking at what Moncrief did in basically 8 games and projecting that to a full season vs. projecting what a player will do with a full season this year.

In any case that is what people might be doing with Crowder. If we were going simply on production there are plenty of better production results from 2016 going for a lot less than Crowder. So people are looking at what he did in 2016, and making an optimistic 3rd year projection. I have no issue with that. If people want to pay more for Crowder than Moncrief so be it - I just havent seen anything to suggest Crowder will out produce Moncrief this year, or in any sort of long term window.