Donte Moncrief Value [POLL]

[TTHTD]

The Monrcrief hate has really reached irrational levels here. It's kinda toxic to reasonable discussion imo.

Hate?

The poll is a near 50/50 split between 1st round and 2nd round value.

The problem I see is, many Moncrief supporters aren't judging him on his own merit. Throwing in comparisons to other success stories who looked similar to Moncrief at the same time in their careers turns the discussion away from Moncrief. Also, metrics are being used to support the best case scenario of what Moncrief could be instead of being used to confirm what has been shown on the field. The guy has been wholly average.

Im talking about the discussion and not the polls and the same exact thing can be said of the Moncrief haters cherry picking bad things and giving no recognition to his upside, glossing over or overemphasising the role that his and Lucks injury played in his performances, and just generally being inconsistent in applying the same logic to other players that they ascribe to Moncrief. You can't just pretend upside isn't valuable or a part of a players overall value.

My point is that there is very little balance in the anti-Moncrief rhetoric. It's essentially just "lol people think he gonna be good numbers but he was bad numbers before so will be bad so people dumb". The truth is more complex than that and things like injury affecting performance and learning curves, elite short yardage and RZ performance, demonstratable growth in route running, youth, excellent opportunity, and yes - player upside are obtusely being completely ignored while ironically being praised in other players that this forum venerated. In a game as unpredictable as fantasy footbsll it's really just hard to take these deadset negative opinions with no concession for potential seriously. It's just kinda... a low quality opinions with no depth of reasoning and so there's really no discussion because the haters have seemingly made up their minds and won't hear anything to the contrary. Its toxic to discussion. I literally just provided good reasons to like Moncrief's potential and they were all ignored in favor of cherry picking the same old arguments. Just people chugging haterade and throwing shade.

I'm not super high on Moncrief but until he has an entire season with him and Luck healthy it is just not possible to be so decisive that Moncrief is as bad as people here are claiming and holding that position (or the position that he and a luck are both destined to always be injured because the last 2 seasons are definitely predictive of the future...) is imo worse than someone who thinks he deserves more patience and still got a shot at a major. and taking mid-late 2nd round guys over Moncrief, like many here are claiming they would do (and which i sincerely doubt), just sounds... unwise.

[Mefisto]

Just because people may disagree with your viewpoint does not mean that they are "obtuse" or that their opinions are "low quality" or whatever else you want to call it. Also, your only post in support of the guy is he has a great QB throwing to him, has upside, is young, injuries, upside. He's had a good training camp... and upside!!!! And then you posted that everyone who disagrees is irrational and toxic... twice. We just don't see the growth you are talking about (upside turning into actual production) and haven't seen it in real games. For example, 53% catch rate last year is no bueno.

[TTHTD]

Just because people may disagree with your viewpoint does not mean that they are "obtuse" or that their opinions are "low quality" or whatever else you want to call it. Also, your only post in support of the guy is he has a great QB throwing to him, has upside, is young, injuries, upside. He's had a good training camp... and upside!!!! And then you posted that everyone who disagrees is irrational and toxic... twice. We just don't see the growth you are talking about (upside turning into actual production) and haven't seen it in real games. For example, 53% catch rate last year is no bueno.

You've ironically sidestepped Moncrief's injury affecting his performance and the article I provided about Moncrief's elite RZ performance and completely misrepresenting what I said and turned it into a strawman... My position isn't nearly as controversial as you're trying to make it seem. Out of curiosity, what do you think Moncrief's stats will be this season?

[Vcize]

The problem with Moncrief (even as an owner of him myself) is that the last great hope for him in discussions is that we've yet to see a full season where both he and Luck were healthy. Yet here we are in August and already both he and Luck are having injury issues. Even worse, this is the last year of Moncrief's rookie deal so if things don't turn around fast we may never get to see that magical scenario where both he and Luck are healthy for an extended period.

It's not like there's always next year anymore. This is pretty much it. If it doesn't work now then he may never get another chance to start, much less get another chance to start alongside Andrew Luck. And with all that on the line he's already injured. AND Luck is already injured. Not an ideal start.

[Vcize]

I have no idea why you're talking about that trade in a response to me.

2nd round rookies because 1/2 the poll as you noted go in the ADP beginning around the #130th pick in a draft.... 82 picks after where Moncrief averages

Startup ADP and value in established leagues can sometimes vary greatly. Moncrief seems to be one of those scenarios. I took Moncrief mid-5th in a recent startup draft (basically right where his ADP is). At the time I could have traded the 5th round pick for a future 1st and future 2nd. But as the actual player himself with rosters now full, I doubt I could get a 1st alone for him.

[Mefisto]

Just because people may disagree with your viewpoint does not mean that they are "obtuse" or that their opinions are "low quality" or whatever else you want to call it. Also, your only post in support of the guy is he has a great QB throwing to him, has upside, is young, injuries, upside. He's had a good training camp... and upside!!!! And then you posted that everyone who disagrees is irrational and toxic... twice. We just don't see the growth you are talking about (upside turning into actual production) and haven't seen it in real games. For example, 53% catch rate last year is no bueno.

You've ironically sidestepped Moncrief's injury affecting his performance and the article I provided about Moncrief's elite RZ performance and completely misrepresenting what I said and turned it into a strawman... My position isn't nearly as controversial as you're trying to make it seem. Out of curiosity, what do you think Moncrief's stats will be this season?

No I had not read it. First, as was mentioned, relying on TD's can be fickle. ARob had 14 of them 2 years ago. Last year? Not so many. Regarding your article, I read the article on which it was actually based. It seems that off of a sample size of 10 passes, Moncrief is in the group of elite red zone efficient players such as Cole Beasley (#1 on their list), Garrett Celek, Danny Amendola, Dion Sims, Eifert, Brate, Sterling Shepherd, Bennett, Miller, Justin Hunter (!!!), and it goes on. So maybe redzone efficiency isn't the be all end all. Also, take a look at how the blurb on Moncrief ends.... upside!!! As to his injuries, they happen! And they regularly derail production and more importantly growth and development. You can't just ignore them.

As i said in one of my first posts, Moncrief is the type of player that people will continue to make excuses for any lack of production. Hell, I have done it, do it and will continue to do it as well! (trust me, this year Ebron is going to explode!)

Your position isn't controversial at all. It's wholly reasonable. However, so is ours. I'm not the one calling people irrational, obtuse or toxic. I'm just providing counter arguments.

I don't know what his stats will be. I don't think he'll be a top 25 WR though.

[seahawks506]

I have no idea why you're talking about that trade in a response to me.

2nd round rookies because 1/2 the poll as you noted go in the ADP beginning around the #130th pick in a draft.... 82 picks after where Moncrief averages

Startup ADP and value in established leagues can sometimes vary greatly. Moncrief seems to be one of those scenarios. I took Moncrief mid-5th in a recent startup draft (basically right where his ADP is). At the time I could have traded the 5th round pick for a future 1st and future 2nd. But as the actual player himself with rosters now full, I doubt I could get a 1st alone for him.

Gaps like this should not exist. If they do, arbitrage the sh*t out of them until they don't. If your valuations are true, trade for the 1st and 2nd, let someone else take Moncrief, then trade that 1st for Moncrief, and stash the free 2nd. This is in theory, of course, but gaps like that represent free value. Otherwise, Moncrief should be worth roughly whatever the ADP value is worth in picks.

[ArrylT]

I have zero recollection as to why anyone originally thought Moncrief was going to be great, let alone why they irrationally harbor thoughts that he still will be.

Metrics and age...you know the same thing that drives all the hype machines. Eventually we have to believe what we get out of these guys but in some cases it takes longer than others...like Cmike

A THIRD ROUND pick (almost 4th) from 2014? Being paired with Luck on what has been perceived as a weak and easy to ascend WR group. Situation, situation, situation has driven years of Moncrief hype with very little to show for it. Hilarious to me how many people were quick to slap bust on Treadwell after one season in a dumpster fire offense at the age of 21 but will be waiting for the Moncrief breakout in 2025.

Also, 50% voted a first for Moncrief? Yuck

This assumes that anyone who is a fan of Moncrief is anti-Treadwell. I personally wouldnt sell Treadwell any cheaper than I would Moncrief.

[_yeti]

Metrics and age...you know the same thing that drives all the hype machines. Eventually we have to believe what we get out of these guys but in some cases it takes longer than others...like Cmike

A THIRD ROUND pick (almost 4th) from 2014? Being paired with Luck on what has been perceived as a weak and easy to ascend WR group. Situation, situation, situation has driven years of Moncrief hype with very little to show for it. Hilarious to me how many people were quick to slap bust on Treadwell after one season in a dumpster fire offense at the age of 21 but will be waiting for the Moncrief breakout in 2025.

Also, 50% voted a first for Moncrief? Yuck

This assumes that anyone who is a fan of Moncrief is anti-Treadwell. I personally wouldnt sell Treadwell any cheaper than I would Moncrief.

Incorrect. I was making a point about how people on this forum formulate their hype. Treadwell had a season that was basically a scratch on a team where the whole offense couldn't function.

Despite having a better college career, being drafted in the first as opposed to the end of the third, he gets labeled a bust after one year at 21. Meanwhile, Moncrief is entering his 4th season in an optimal situation team-wise and has showed he is drastically overrated by the fantasy community and yet people still say he is worth a 1st which baffles me.

[ArrylT]

Well hopefully next time you'll word your point better because the way it is written is suggestive that the same people who label Treadwell a bust are Moncrief supporters.

[jonf86]

A THIRD ROUND pick (almost 4th) from 2014? Being paired with Luck on what has been perceived as a weak and easy to ascend WR group. Situation, situation, situation has driven years of Moncrief hype with very little to show for it. Hilarious to me how many people were quick to slap bust on Treadwell after one season in a dumpster fire offense at the age of 21 but will be waiting for the Moncrief breakout in 2025.

Also, 50% voted a first for Moncrief? Yuck

This assumes that anyone who is a fan of Moncrief is anti-Treadwell. I personally wouldnt sell Treadwell any cheaper than I would Moncrief.

Incorrect. I was making a point about how people on this forum formulate their hype. Treadwell had a season that was basically a scratch on a team where the whole offense couldn't function.

Despite having a better college career, being drafted in the first as opposed to the end of the third, he gets labeled a bust after one year at 21. Meanwhile, Moncrief is entering his 4th season in an optimal situation team-wise and has showed he is drastically overrated by the fantasy community and yet people still say he is worth a 1st which baffles me.

This has been a really interesting discussion to follow. Just want to say well done everyone.

Part of me is still a believer in both Treadwell and Moncrief. I think the forum is too harsh on Treadwell, especially when compared to Moncrief, but I'm guessing it's because there isn't a whole lot of precedent for future success coming off of such a unproductive rookie season. In a way 1st rounders are treated unfairly and held to a higher standard, but that's because these teams are heavily invested in them and they will usually give them every opportunity to succeed. Knowing that, it's hard to fathom why Treadwell was so unproductive, especially since he was seen as a very pro ready prospect and going to an offense that, while definitely underwhelming overall, features a short passing game that should play to his strengths as a possession receiver.

Moncrief on the other hand is in a potent offense and did show us something both of his first two seasons (some of which he had to do without Luck), despite his 3rd round draft pedigree. His biggest supporters were counting on last year being his true breakout, but he just couldn't manage to stay healthy and was somewhat underwhelming when he returned. So, fair or not, it's almost as if last season was a wash for him.

Not saying any of this is fair or unfair, right or wrong, just how I think many perceive these two very polarizing players.

[skip]

My point is that there is very little balance in the anti-Moncrief rhetoric. It's essentially just "lol people think he gonna be good numbers but he was bad numbers before so will be bad so people dumb". The truth is more complex than that and things like injury affecting performance and learning curves, elite short yardage and RZ performance, demonstratable growth in route running, youth, excellent opportunity, and yes - player upside are obtusely being completely ignored while ironically being praised in other players that this forum venerated. In a game as unpredictable as fantasy footbsll it's really just hard to take these deadset negative opinions with no concession for potential seriously. It's just kinda... a low quality opinions with no depth of reasoning and so there's really no discussion because the haters have seemingly made up their minds and won't hear anything to the contrary. Its toxic to discussion. I literally just provided good reasons to like Moncrief's potential and they were all ignored in favor of cherry picking the same old arguments. Just people chugging haterade and throwing shade.

I could just as well argue that the "pro-Moncrief" side is being equally "obtuse" believing that his upside is a guarantee. Just because he's young or athletic or meets some arbitrary standard of measurables does not mean he will improve. 2015 was supposed to be a breakout season and he fell short. Then it was supposed to be in 2016 and while an improvement in TDs was there, there were also drops in production elsewhere. Overall his growth was at best flat. While he could improve and most likely will over last season, the evidence suggests to me only a modest improvement at best and a relatively low career ceiling.

Two years ago he was being drafted ahead of Hilton which I considered ridiculous and that was before the excuses of QB play and injury were even on the table. I do not believe the upside expectations are realistic.

[_yeti]

Right or wrong? When we run out of things to talk about and Zeke suspensions to mull over, a good Donte Moncrief debate can sustain us for quite some time. How many more years of this can we do for the Coby Fleener of receivers?

... probably at least one more year by my count

[ArrylT]

Ok I'll bite lol - in what way are you comparing Coby Fleener to Donte Moncrief?

It certainly isnt height/weight. Fleener has 4 inches and 30-35 lb on Moncrief.

It isnt likely to be player profile comparison since they compare Fleener to Jared Cook and Donte Moncrief to Andre Johnson.

[ArrylT]

Heres an early off-season article sure to make disbelievers cringe.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/ ... omparison/