Donte Moncrief Value [POLL]

[Reljac]

This is the thing that kills me about Moncrief truthers!

This is the thing that kills me about Moncrief Haters! They'd rather trade at way below his ADP value to get these rookies that are drafted into situations where they are not starters, and in offenses that are Run first and instead of taking a young, athletic WR in pass first offense. They'd rather just sit on another Rookie that won't help their roster for a few more years, and who is watching Eric Decker, Rishad Matthews, and Corey Davis from the sidelines... Where they are more likely in a few years to still be behind the reception pecking order of Corey Davis & Jonnu Smith... before they get mad at that guy and then move on again...Where is the logic in that?

[Reljac]

Titans third-round WR Taywan Taylor is listed as a third-team wideout on Tennessee's initial unofficial depth chart.
Rishard Matthews and first-rounder Corey Davis are listed as the starters, with Eric Decker and Tre McBride (surprisingly) with the twos. Taylor has seen reps with the ones in camp, working out of the slot. But if everyone stays healthy, it's hard to see Taylor making much of a year-one impact after the signing of Decker. Aug 7 - 6:13 PM

[_yeti]

I'd quote you Reljac but you spammed out 3 posts in a row so I'll just say what I'm going to say here. Redraft mentality lacking in nuance. Rishard Matthews is a threat to a Diggs type? A team with a heavy run game can't sustain a good slot WR, and it can't help him produce? Decker is a long term threat on the last legs of his career? Corey Davis fulfills a totally different role than Taylor. Taylor will be behind the pecking order of Jonnu Smith? And you are now listing pre-preseason depth charts as evidence?

I'll just say this, I find none of that persuasive or formulated with good football logic in my humble opinion. You are clearly the captain of the Donte Moncrief fanclub ready to take on all comers, armed with bullet proof statements of his ADP as proof. Good luck with it man. I'm not a fan, I'm not a believer, it is what it is. I'll let you continue to carry the torch and if you want the last word, go for it but I'm not going to keep debating you on it.

[Reljac]

I'm not a fan, I'm not a believer, it is what it is. I'll let you continue to carry the torch and if you want the last word, go for it but I'm not going to keep debating you on it.

That is not only clear, but leading you to mislead others on the value of a player because you don't like that player. It's unhelpful to the community. I'm hardly in the Moncrief fanclub, but I am rational in understanding fantasy football, where you don't trade an asset for a considerably lower valued asset...

I traded Moncrief last season when the hype on him was huge...I packaged him in a deal with multiple 1sts where I got Mike Evans when everyone was down on Evans. I see you instead went the trading Mike Evans for Arob route, which is more what I expect from someone who undersells and overpays.

[_yeti]

I'm not a fan, I'm not a believer, it is what it is. I'll let you continue to carry the torch and if you want the last word, go for it but I'm not going to keep debating you on it.

That is not only clear, but leading you to mislead others on the value of a player because you don't like that player. It's unhelpful to the community. I'm hardly in the Moncrief fanclub, but I am rational in understanding fantasy football, where you don't trade an asset for a considerably lower valued asset...

I traded Moncrief last season when the hype on him was huge...I packaged him in a deal with multiple 1sts where I got Mike Evans when everyone was down on Evans. I see you instead went the trading Mike Evans for Arob route, which is more what I expect from someone who undersells and overpays.

Stop cherry picking my football relevant comments out and only including the takeaway from those conclusions to avoid talking about things of substance. Also stop attributing beliefs and actions to me which i don't hold. You are making it hard not to end up in the ad hominem hall of fame.

I love after holding court for multiple pages where you appear to be either related to Moncrief or his agent, you then say how you cashed in on his un-realized hype for a great WR who was already established. Nice work bud, we are in debt to your thorough analysis

[ArrylT]

Has anyone ever read David Eddings The Belgariad? One of my favorite Fantasy series of all time. Anyways in the fourth book of the series there is a scene where some people are opposed to giving an important role to a young inexperienced princess. One of those opposed is a brilliant well respected general. He goes on to make some wierd incomprehensible arguments that steals the wind out of the sails of the group of people opposed, and in the end the princess gets the role. Later on we learn he intentionally sabotaged them and actually wanted the princess to have the role she got.

How is this relevant?

a_yeti could be considered by some to be a brilliant and well respected poster (I think he makes a lot of good points usually - just not here), and he has gone on to make some really odd statements in this thread that basically seem to equate to Moncrief having less value than Tawyan Taylor and less likely to have a better career (but my interpretation could be incorrect). Ever since he started posting in this thread, the % of people who have voted for Moncrief as a 1st round value vs. 2nd has slowly grown. If his intent was to sabotage the anti-Moncrief side of the discussion, by posting on their side, one could say he is doing a great job.

In the end, like many debates/discussions, only time will tell how this will end. I certainly hope for Moncrief this ends up like it did for Davante Adams or Devonta Freeman and less like Dorial Green Beckham or Bishop Sankey.

Final thought. In a 12 team league Moncrief owners = 8.5% of the league. Current % of people voting Moncrief is worth a high 1st 9.0%. Odds are you'll have your work cut out for you and a need to be creative if you want to get Moncrief at a late 2nd valuation and somehow I doubt offering T. Taylor for Moncrief will work.

[_yeti]

a_yeti could be considered by some to be a brilliant and well respected poster (I think he makes a lot of good points usually - just not here),

That was a fun story and I appreciate the compliments even if they come with qualifications (I have to take what I can get).

What am I saying? I personally prefer Taylor's upside (in my rating) to Moncrief. I am not trying to swing or influence the poll. I'm just giving my perspective why I think the hype on him isn't warranted. The fact that my argument is that the hype exists and isn't warranted also means his ADP must already be high. ADP is just a measure of the trend of the community's perception on a player, it alone proves nothing.

I own Moncrief nowhere so I won't be trading for him, or trading him away, this is just a thought exercise or debate on value for the fun of it. I would view that as not having a horse in the race and once we get personally invested in a player we can manifest a lot more belief, especially the longer we own them in leagues. The flipside is by making a hard pass we can get stuck in our evaluation of that too, maybe that's me and Moncrief. Or maybe he is a guy who is living up to about what a 90th overall pick should be, occasionally flashing, ultimately not a game changer. Time will tell, I'm just choosing a side.

[ArrylT]

Nothing wrong with choosing a side!

Agreed re: ADP ... its best usuage comes when trying to determine the capital needed to spend in a startup draft, or comparing similar players in a tier, less so when trying to determine the feasibility of a trade, or value in comparison to a rookie pick.

As for NFL draft position, I try to avoid comparing draft positions from drafts more than a year or so apart, and for different style players on different teams. Its impossible to determine where Moncrief would go - although those redo the 200X NFL draft excercise are always entertaining to read - and Taylors draft position in this draft relative to Moncriefs in 2014 is immaterial to me since they are on separate teams. I think the fact that the Colts did not spend any draft capital is more important to consider than Taylor having been drafted at 72nd overall. Too hard to accurately speculate on whether or not they would have wanted Taylor but since the Colts did not take any WR that suggests to me that Taylor was not on their board (otherwise they would have gone with a plan B somewhere along the way).

I think you would likely agree one of the best uses of draft pedigree is in knowing the more pedigree the more shots the player will get to prove his upside. And even that doesnt happen 100% of the time as we've seen with teams. Again while impossible to predict accurately, the Colts did not add at WR (apart from Aiken as a FA) and that is suggestive that they did not feel a need and that Moncrief has done enough with his shot(s) so far to satisfy them. Aiken is a hedge bet in case he gets injured or doesnt progress further, not to replace is how it appears to me.

Anyways I believe there are no 100% certaintys in football, injuries and unexpected events make that impossible, but I feel confident Moncrief has a good shot at cementing his role in the NFL, and likely with the Colts (unless his agent prices him out of their market). I also feel that while it is certainly plausible Taylor can succeed in the NFL, his route to success is too early in its journey for me to feel comfortable speculating on his viability. If you feel the exact opposite there is nothing wrong with that.

[Reljac]

Nothing wrong with choosing a side!

Agreed re: ADP ... its best usuage comes when trying to determine the capital needed to spend in a startup draft, or comparing similar players in a tier, less so when trying to determine the feasibility of a trade, or value in comparison to a rookie pick.

There are a lot of factors that go into the feasibility of a trade including the needs of the team you are trading with. Value of a rookie pick is typically silly as people near rookie drafts they sky rocket. By midseason, All these Rookies that aren't starting yet will see a huge drop in trade value, like they do every year. In shallower leagues the mid to late 2nd and 3rd round rookies will begin to fall to the waiver wire as waivers and bye weeks impact rosters.

ADP is an excellent source to help establish a range of values you might get from another owner in a trade or comparable players you may receive in return from a trade. If you are using it you should never expect to get every player ranked after the player you are trading. It's a range because most owners after a widely varying range of perceptions of a player.

As of right now, Moncrief is drafted in the same tier as Lamar Miller, Corey Coleman, Davante Adams, Devante Parker

As of right now, Moncrief is dynasty ranked by DLF in the same tier as Lamar Miller, Corey Coleman, Davante Adams, Devante Parker

That speaks to where the average value of the community is, but you have to know and understand your leagues. Some leagues overvalue QBs, some RBs, some overvalue hype, some overvalue last season's production or career production.

Lots of factors in value, but knowing your league and other owners are key to getting the best value in return for a player where you are a seller rather than a buyer.

[_yeti]

[...]
As for NFL draft position, I try to avoid comparing draft positions from drafts more than a year or so apart, and for different style players on different teams. Its impossible to determine where Moncrief would go - although those redo the 200X NFL draft excercise are always entertaining to read - and Taylors draft position in this draft relative to Moncriefs in 2014 is immaterial to me since they are on separate teams. I think the fact that the Colts did not spend any draft capital is more important to consider than Taylor having been drafted at 72nd overall. Too hard to accurately speculate on whether or not they would have wanted Taylor but since the Colts did not take any WR that suggests to me that Taylor was not on their board (otherwise they would have gone with a plan B somewhere along the way).

I think you would likely agree one of the best uses of draft pedigree is in knowing the more pedigree the more shots the player will get to prove his upside. And even that doesnt happen 100% of the time as we've seen with teams. Again while impossible to predict accurately, the Colts did not add at WR (apart from Aiken as a FA) and that is suggestive that they did not feel a need and that Moncrief has done enough with his shot(s) so far to satisfy them. Aiken is a hedge bet in case he gets injured or doesnt progress further, not to replace is how it appears to me.

Anyways I believe there are no 100% certaintys in football, injuries and unexpected events make that impossible, but I feel confident Moncrief has a good shot at cementing his role in the NFL, and likely with the Colts (unless his agent prices him out of their market). I also feel that while it is certainly plausible Taylor can succeed in the NFL, his route to success is too early in its journey for me to feel comfortable speculating on his viability. If you feel the exact opposite there is nothing wrong with that.

I included Taylor mainly as an example of a player I am high on and why I would rather have a late 2nd than Moncrief. It's not really to compare the fact that they are both 3rd rounders or that Taylor was drafted slightly higher, as I agree they are totally different styles of WR. I think that in half ppr or full ppr which most of us play, Taylor has a very likely shot at WR2 numbers for a long time. I am higher than most on him.

To say because a team doesn't draft x player or x position means they weren't on that team's board, I'm not sure I agree with that. Teams address their needs in ways they see fit, I think that means for any high round player they wouldn't mind having them, but they had to allocate those resources elsewhere. It is very common for teams to have a weak area and still not address it. You mention Aiken, Chester Rogers has also been coming on strong and then there is the off-chance Dorsett does something. At the same time I know they are happy with Doyle and the Swoope breakout is coming. So you may be overestimating their dependence on Moncrief. They believe the group can get it done, not necessarily that it has to be him. They also have need at RB and Mack does not address that, doesn't mean the other RBs "weren't on their board" they just allocated resources elsewhere.

If Moncrief busts season 4 for whatever reason, I don't think he has cemented anything in the NFL. In the case of an underwhelming 2017, he either returns for the Colts hoping for a year 5 breakout, or goes in FA to someone willing to roll the dice on him competing for their #3 WR. If he blows the doors off 2017, well, different story. I don't see that happening. So this is a make or break year in many respects for him. BUT imo, if he produces in 2017, THEN I am willing to be okay with a 1st price tag on him. Until then, the buyer is throwing away a first when they could likely have Mike Williams, OJ Howard, Etc. Also, I am MUCH higher on Zay than Moncrief if we want to have that debate too. I am fine with a late first for Zay as I think he is being tremendously underrated.

[sloth8u]

I included Taylor mainly as an example of a player I am high on and why I would rather have a late 2nd than Moncrief. It's not really to compare the fact that they are both 3rd rounders or that Taylor was drafted slightly higher, as I agree they are totally different styles of WR. I think that in half ppr or full ppr which most of us play, Taylor has a very likely shot at WR2 numbers for a long time. I am higher than most on him.

feel free to have any opinon that you want. noone is "right" today. but that is a huge difference in value, and if you play without recognizing player value....your headed down a long road. thats like taking bmarsh for nuk right now. noone is going to argue, but your getting killed in "value" if you will.

To say because a team doesn't draft x player or x position means they weren't on that team's board, I'm not sure I agree with that. Teams address their needs in ways they see fit, I think that means for any high round player they wouldn't mind having them, but they had to allocate those resources elsewhere. It is very common for teams to have a weak area and still not address it. You mention Aiken, Chester Rogers has also been coming on strong and then there is the off-chance Dorsett does something. At the same time I know they are happy with Doyle and the Swoope breakout is coming. So you may be overestimating their dependence on Moncrief. They believe the group can get it done, not necessarily that it has to be him. They also have need at RB and Mack does not address that, doesn't mean the other RBs "weren't on their board" they just allocated resources elsewhere.

i agree completely with where your going here...a prolific offense in indy does not mean that crief is the answer. i will tell you that imo, dorsett and rogers are not the answer. hilton is a 5 td guy. think about that as your wr 1. i do realize that the te's come in to play in the redzone, and the sky's the limit for swoope (been holding that guy in several leagues for a few years). my bets always been on turbin with an opportunity...but mack does have some appeal there. i would not say that they haven't addressed the rb's. it went from bradshaw to gore and some possible's. gore took care of the need.

If Moncrief busts season 4 for whatever reason, I don't think he has cemented anything in the NFL. In the case of an underwhelming 2017, he either returns for the Colts hoping for a year 5 breakout, or goes in FA to someone willing to roll the dice on him competing for their #3 WR. If he blows the doors off 2017, well, different story. I don't see that happening. So this is a make or break year in many respects for him. BUT imo, if he produces in 2017, THEN I am willing to be okay with a 1st price tag on him. Until then, the buyer is throwing away a first when they could likely have Mike Williams, OJ Howard, Etc. Also, I am MUCH higher on Zay than Moncrief if we want to have that debate too. I am fine with a late first for Zay as I think he is being tremendously underrated.

again in this thread, i will bring up the facts. (adp on this site right now)
crief 48
williams 56
kamara 70
perrine 73
ross 79
hunt 82
howard 83
jones as the 15th rookie @ 118

noone here is going to convince you that crief is worth more than jones at this point.

[_yeti]

You guys are going nuts with this ADP stuff. Moncrief is 48, Jamison Crowder is 49. Is anyone paying a 1st or 2nd for Crowder alone? I haven't seen it.

Snead is 54, Mike Williams is 56. Are people trading Mike Williams for Snead straight up? Nope. This ADP as the be-all-end-all of value is pretty annoying. Why have a debate or a poll? Everyone just look to the ADP.

Fact is the owner of every player in every league likely has a different ranking on any player than the ADP and they are rarely selling for less and don't want to buy at ADP or more. Moncrief truthers point to it as though it proves something and I'm fine with that, I also battled all comers on Rawls being overrated after 2015 and I was the dumb outlier then too. One more year like the last three and Moncrief ADP tumbles well past 100 or more. If that can change that fast, how is ADP the be-all measure?

[Reljac]

apparently two seconds (one was 2.4) for Crowder was considered quite the deal on our forum and most have him as a late 1st

The value of most responders fits in nicely with what we've been saying here.

[_yeti]

apparently two seconds (one was 2.4) for Crowder was considered quite the deal on our forum and most have him as a late 1st

The value of most responders fits in nicely with what we've been saying here.

Would you agree that a very high percentage of the players in most leagues are not on DLF forums? There is a general valuation of most players here in a range, there is also constant outrage about how people's leaguemates don't have the same valuation.

The "savvy" typical DLF type plays in multiple leagues and tends to gamble less and take on less risk. They then treat this as the only way to play. I take on more risk and strategic gambles for higher payoffs. This means I am much lower on players like Crowder and Moncrief. This is why the forum exists. If I had Moncrief and you had 2.9 we could make that trade and you would be happy and I would be happy. Why does everyone have to have the same valuation? If that were the case no one would ever trade.

Also, this site is kind of contradictory as everyone wants elite WRs and then still wants to overvalue Moncriefs and Crowders. How many times do I see rosters fullll of WRs and naked at QB, RB, and TE

[skip]

If that can change that fast, how is ADP the be-all measure?

Agreed. There are clearly some people who subscribe to it as though that is the proper valuation in every league. On the DLF forum there is generally too much value placed on age and upside. Consider Moncrief and DT. Until this current month, the two have been within 5 draft spots of one another for over a year. From October thru December, Moncrief was being drafted EARLIER, which is ridiculous. There is also a general lack of willingness to move players up or down rankings without an extreme event taking place. IMO, Moncrief has been overvalued for 2+ years. He hasn't done anything significant to drop that valuation so people who like him hang on. To those who never had him that high, they aren't going to suddenly become believers because there have been no indicators to move him up either. And it works in the reverse...like a Crowder...he was never valued that highly so there is hesitation to move him up.