Ryan Tannehill Injury

[gausec]

While the news regarding his injury has not been formally announced some believe he will be out for the year. If he is out for the year what does that mean for his career? Is he a good buy low, or do you think he will just be another journeyman?

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

He wasn't much of a fantasy option outside of 2QB leagues anyway.
If he misses the year, it gets very complicated for Miami. They can get out of his contract for only $4.6m dead money after this season. That will be a tough decision with what he has shown and the injury.

[ninotoreS]

I'm guessing Miami would only cut Tannehill loose this off-season in the event they're terrible enough this year to acquire a top pick in the '18 draft. Otherwise, they'll keep him.

[drbuttermaker]

I have watched every pro snap he has taken, and my opinion is he is just a journeyman.

Luckily for me, I traded him for two firsts a couple season ago to a QB-desperate team (16-team league).

[Mefisto]

Ugh, sucks for me as I had him in both my 2Qb and superflex (and Bridgewater last year in both... wtf?!!?) but this could be tremendous for my shares of Parker. If Cutler goes to Miami Parker is a WR1 this year.

As to Tannehill, I think he'll have a long career scoring in the QB12-20 range. Kind of like Alex Smith/Brian Hoyer but with more running. I wouldn't touch him in 1QB leagues but he's useful and cheap in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

[Friction]

I am trying to share in the enthusiasm for Parker that you do too, as I have him in a couple leagues. I just do not think Jay Cutler would make me confidently (or sanely) predict him in the top 12 receivers. I am not even entirely sure I could put him in the top 20, though a twist of the arm may help. I get the combo of Jay forcing the deep ball in there like he did with Marsh and Alshon, but Parker has just not shown much on the field. I actually was not even that impressed with him in college and thought he was overdrafted in the NFL.

[DLF3000]

Thought Kenny Stills might be a sneaky WR3+ play this year too, but this is an unfortunate (though not huge) downgrade.

[drbuttermaker]

Thought Kenny Stills might be a sneaky WR3+ play this year too, but this is an unfortunate (though not huge) downgrade.

I did not even think about my Stills shares until I read this, although I bought them in 2011 (after he torched FSU) so this is just a bump in the road.

[ninotoreS]

For those of you only getting updated on this via rotoworld's sparse blurbs:

It's been determined that the knee has suffered no fresh structural damage.

BUT...

...everyone is still extremely concerned as to why his knee buckled in the first place. Since there's no new damage, it's an ominous mystery. So far as I can tell, the fear is that the ligament is weak because it didn't heal well enough, and thus might be close to re-tearing. That possibility is really scary, because Tannehill's knee probably wouldn't ever be the same again.

SO, Miami is reportedly deciding between two options: 1.) rest Tannehill for two months and hope the additional down time will strengthen the ligament. 2.) Don't risk it, and commit to surgery now for a full repair, which Miami chose not to do after the original injury.

Miami opted not to do surgery last year so that Tannehill would have shorter convalescence time and be ready for the '17 season by Week 1. It was thought that since it was only a partial tear, surgery would not be necessary. Now it appears Miami might have screwed the pooch with that call.

[drbuttermaker]

Now it appears Miami might have screwed the pooch with that call.

Always ask, WWJAD.

What would James Andrews do?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If the guy can't get through a few days of training camp without injuring it the way it is I don't see how he'd get through a full football season. Don't see how this doesn't result in surgery but who knows.

[DLF3000]

Ok then. Cutler's actually a slight upgrade.

[jcc6fd]

Ok then. Cutler's actually a slight upgrade.

I'd take Cutler over Tannehill when it comes to throwing to my fantasy WRs.

[ninotoreS]

Cutler could be an upgrade in the sense of how his deep ball can keep opposing Ds more stretched out.

But in terms of pure statistics, Cutler doesn't feed his weapons any better than Tannehill has. Cutler has one 4k yardage season in 11 seasons and doesn't throw all that many TDs. His numbers are game-manager numbers.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

But in terms of pure statistics, Cutler doesn't feed his weapons any better than Tannehill has.

Respectfully disagree. His end of year statistics don't tell the full story for his time in Chicago.

Pre-2012, he didn't exactly have "weapons". His top 3 WRs were Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett. He also had Olsen until 2009 or 2010 but didn't target him much, for whatever reason.
2012 - He had Marshall and a Rookie Alshon who was not active much. Marshall had 192 targets and finished as WR2 overall in PPR.
2013 - He had Marshall and Alshon, who both finished top 10 at WR. Marty Bennett and Forte had 94 and 95 targets as well. Cutler missed 5 games and left in the 1st of another. In the games he played, Alshon averaged 9 targets per game and Marshall averaged 11 targets per game. He was on pace for ~4300 Yds and 30-31 TDs that year, but regardless he was pretty locked on his top couple weapons.
2014 - Alshon (145), Forte (130), Bennett (128), and Marshall (106 in 13 games before the "breakup") all got a pretty good chunk of targets. Cutler had 3800/28 in 15 games.
2015 (under Gase) - Alshon had 94 targets in 9 games, Bennett had 80 targets in 11 games, Forte and Langford combined for 100 targets (Langford seemed to be in the receiving back role after Forte got injured). The rest went to middling WRs and TEs again (Marquess Wilson, Zach Miller, Eddie Royal each had around 50 targets). Cutler had 3600/21 in 15 games, throwing to mostly backup level players down the stretch.

I think he has a pretty good history of feeding the top couple guys when they are available. It is hard to say how he compares to Tannehill in that regard since Tannehill basically just has last year with a full array of targets, and he pretty much targetted Landry like Cutler targetted 2012 Marshall before that. Even still this seems like a bump for Parker and at least a push for Landry, compared to this season's outlook with Tannehill.