2017 Rookie Surprise Sleepers and Busts

[Mefisto]

History tells us it's highly likely that at least 2 of the top 4 RB's are going to bust, if not all. Remember the year of Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson? For one reason or another, I think there were only 3 or 4 top 10 RB finishes among their careers total. It's looking like the 1st round WR's aren't looking too promising either right now.

For sleepers, I think the QB's are going to surprise people. I think Watson is going to have a Prescott like 1st year. He's surrounded by some great talent in Houston. The homer in me really hopes Trubisky surprises too but I wouldn't actually put any money on that. I think Kupp is going to surprise a lot of people as he is one of the more NFL ready receivers, has extremely sure hands and will become Goff's safety net. For RB, I'll throw the dart at Pumphrey. I don't think he'll be a world breaker but he will provide value far beyond where he was drafted as there really isn't much infront of him in Philly.

[M-Dub]

Studs: Kupp, Golladay, McNichols, Perine
Busts: McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Ross

[flashgordon12]

Surprise sleeper: Tarik Cohen. Guy isn't getting any love at all but there is a clear path to relevancy for him in PPR leagues. I think it's criminal that he's pretty much going undrafted.

Surprise bust: Kamara. I don't see a path to many touches when Ingram is already good in the passing game and AD is there as well

[Stevens61310]

I read through the entire thread to see if my "studs" and "busts"were there. And yes indeed they were--but here goes

Studs--DeShaun Watson, Cook (mark my words--Rookie of the Year--and this coming from a Bears fan that hopes he busts--), I think Donnel Punphrey is going to surprise some people. And I am going to throw in Elijah McGuire. TE's historically struggle but I like Engram a lot--

Busts--Every time I see the words "Rookie draft bust" for this year I see Mixon's name in Neon Lights. And I suspect that 4 years from now we will be saying John Ross? Who? As well as Mike Who? I will throw in Mahomes--I just don't see it--

[tstafford]

History tells us it's highly likely that at least 2 of the top 4 RB's are going to bust, if not all. Remember the year of Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson?

Hang on there. You seem to be using Brown, Williams and Benson to make a "bust" claim.
- All three rushed for 1K yards at least once
- Benson rushed for 1K yards three times
- Caddy got hurt badly but still lasted 7 years, Benson was an idiot and lasted 8, Brown made it 10
- It was a whole lot easier in 2005 to be drafted in the first round as a RB (this class is special in recent years)

Maybe these guys weren't fantasy studs, but far from being NFL busts. Just ask the Colts - Donald Brown and Trent Richardson.

[Mefisto]

I was just throwing them out as an example of a year where there were 3 allegedly amazing backs coming out everyone wanted and, for one reason or another, they didn't meet their expectations. If I recall, those 3 were gone in the first 4 picks of almost every rookie draft in 2005. Quick look at fftoday shows that I was wrong. Those 3 backs in fact had a combined 0 top 10 RB seasons, even during Benson's best year in 2009. To me that qualifies a player as a bust. Especially if you are spending a top 4 rookie draft pick, much less a real 1st round NFL draft pick. Of course, what happened then is not at all an indicator of what is going to happen his year. It is entirely possible that all 4 of Fournette, Mixon, Cook and CMC become hall of famers. I'd just bet money on the opposite happening.

[Friction]

Busts- Cook, maybe a boom play or some check down points in ppr.
Surprise-Samuel. Feel he has a Tyreek impact in a sense, though he is not nearly under the radar. More overshadowed by CMC.
Indifferent-Kamara, Ross. Anytime i avoid a certain guu or two in rookie drafts they tend to at least do ok. Similar to Fuller last year.

[tstafford]

It is entirely possible that all 4 of Fournette, Mixon, Cook and CMC become hall of famers. I'd just bet money on the opposite happening.

I realize you're using emphasis for effect, but I think this highlights the issue. I don't understand why people think that a top-3 or 4 rookie pick is supposed to guarantee a fantasy stud. Past history tells us this is unrealistic but for whatever reason dynasty owners refuse to accept it and thereby are perpetually disappointed.

You're absolutely right that the likely outcome is that two of four (or worse) of these RBs turn out to be mediocre fantasy assets. I mean is Gio Bernard (a common 1.01 pick that year) really any less of a disappointment than Donald Brown? Sure he's hung around the league but he hasn't been particularly fantasy relevant. Could Cook be a lot like Gio? For sure.

The problem I see is that people use the history argument to say "well since half the rookies will bust, y'all are fools for saying that all of them can be good". That's just as wrong. If we knew which of the four would bust, we'd say that. Problem is that right now we honestly don't know which will succeed. Frankly all four have obvious issues which is interesting given their NFL draft pedigree. Side note: I think they have Zeke Elliot to thank for their NFL draft results.

The only way to mitigate the risk is to trade the pick for existing, proven talent and even that is questionable. Not too long ago we would have traded top picks for Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Jeremy Hill, (ahem Todd Gurley).

It's a crap shoot. The only thing we know is that at least half of the first round picks will disappoint, more than half for those who's expectation is that a first round rookie pick is suppose to produce a top-15 dynasty asset.

My approach - balanced mix of vets and rookies. Trade the rookie picks when possible but not unless I get better than market value. Expect half of them to bust. Be happy if I have a starter for four or five years - even if that starter is a RB2 or WR2. Example - I took both Cook and MCM in my main salary cap league. I'm fine if one busts and one is a top-15 RB. That's what I expect.

[DynastyBuilder515]

I'll go the other way on Ross and say stud (relative to fantasy drafts I am seeing). He has gone early to mid second in most places I have seen and I think he exceeds that value and is worth early to mid first by the end of the year.

[Cameron Giles]

We should at least define what a "stud" is by rookie standards. Sure, a rookie can flash enough without a high statistical finish and still look like a stud, but let's say a Top-24 finish for a rookie WR is a stud. Let's say a Top-14 finish for a rookie RB/TE is also a stud. A lot of people in this thread are naming players who don't have a path to that type of volume right away. So, by that standard, I'm not sure how many fit the criteria.

Since 2000, only 16 rookie WR's have finished in the Top 24. Michael Thomas is last year's addition to the club. If we exclude the anomaly known as the 2014 class (Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews), then only 11 rookie WR's have finished in the Top 24 since 2000. It's extremely hard to get into the Top 24, especially since WR is the deepest it's ever been. If I'm imagining a player finishing in the Top 24, he has to have some combination of high skill level and a path to volume. Of the rookie WR's, only Corey Davis easily fits that criteria right now.

Based on all that, I don't think there will be many rookie finishers, since there typically aren't.

In 2015 we had:

Top 14 RB: Todd Gurley, David Johnson
Top 24 WR: Amari Cooper
Top 14 TE: None

Last year we had:

Top 14 RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard
Top 24 WR: Michael Thomas
Top 14 TE: Hunter Henry

These aren't surprises, but I'll say:

Top 14 RB: Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook
Top-24 WR: Corey Davis
Top 14 TE: O.J. Howard

I'm still not very high on Cook, but situationally he has the volume to put up numbers if Minnesota's line improves.

[AsUdUdE430]

For rookies in particular it is all about opportunity. Last year Zeke was drafted into a GREAT opportunity and thrived. He graded out as a 93 with the next highest grade being Henry who was an 81. Henry showed glimpses of being special, but was did not have the opportunity to shine fantasy wise in 2016. Jordan Howard was not the most talented rookie, but had a tremendous opportunity and took advantage to have a great rookie year.

This year, Fournette and Cook have the talent AND great opportunities, while guys like McM (resigned Stewart, drafted another RB in top 3 rounds), Joe Mixion (two other RB's plus two top 10 WR draft picks and Good TE to compete with) or Corey Davis (Traditionally running team, Signed Decker, and drafted another WR) all have major road blocks to becoming bonefide fantasy studs. Not to say they can't/won't overcome these road blocks, but most need to temper their expectations for production year 1 for everyone outside of Cook/Fournette.

[TTHTD]

I mean is Gio Bernard (a common 1.01 pick that year) really any less of a disappointment than Donald Brown? Sure he's hung around the league but he hasn't been particularly fantasy relevant.

This could not be less true.

PPR scoring:

2013- RB13
2014- RB16
2015- RB17
2016- RB41 (injured but averaged 12.5 PPG when he played, the same as Gurley. If he'd not been injured he'd have had another mid-RB2 season at least)

Gio has been very fantasy relevant. I don't know why he gets so much crap and I'd be happy to have him on my squad in any league I'm in. He's a serious buy low right now.

[spotxc]

^ same reason why I think expectations for mixon are out of hand. Add that with hill getting carries and all the receiving weapons and he's being severely overvalued imo

[Knox Steel Curtain]

Studs: Mcnichols, Kupp, Kizer, Godwin, and Pumphrey

Busts: Fournette with his ADP so high, Ross, and Howard. Howard will be much better next year but for where he is drafted he will disappoint.

Mike Williams gets an incomplete.

[ArrylT]

I dont quite get how Kamara can be labelled a possible bust surprise or otherwise. I think it is pretty clear that everyone expects him to play behind Ingram and Peterson and the only way he'll get meaningful touches this year is if one of them gets injured or is simply ineffective - so unless he actually gets meaningful touches AND then does nothing with them can he be considered to bust (for 2017 purposes).

Same with Njoku - who doesnt know that rookie TEs rarely perform well Year I. So if he doesnt produce like a Gronk year I he is a bust?

Seems like circular thinking to me - we'll label this player - who is in a situation where he is unlikely to produce - a possible bust, and then when he doesnt produce due to circumstances out of his control, we'll have proof he is a bust. In the end this exercise may do you more harm than good since any player you list you're expecting a negative outcome, and then if the negative outcome doesnt occur you'll look for reasons why it will still occur down the road, and if the negative outcome occurs you are more apt to ignore future signs of possible production.