2017 Rookie Surprise Sleepers and Busts

[Knox Steel Curtain]

I don't get the hate for McCaffrey on here either. He so far has had best reports of all of the running backs. Go and watch the video where Luke kuechley can't stay with him. No way he is a bust. No one even mentions Mixon despite reports already out that Marvin Lewis is still planning a big role for both Gio and Hill.

[TTHTD]

I don't get the hate for McCaffrey on here either. He so far has had best reports of all of the running backs. Go and watch the video where Luke kuechley can't stay with him. No way he is a bust. No one even mentions Mixon despite reports already out that Marvin Lewis is still planning a big role for both Gio and Hill.

Near as I can tell the McCaffrey hate stems from his size and his race. People will cite a million made up reasons for not liking him but I haven't heard a single coherent argument against him that didn't fall back to "his size inherently caps his upside" or "he's white". They don't think he'll be a 3 down back and they're right. He'll be a 4 down back.

[Defender]

The amount of Dalvin Cook bust predictions is kind of astonishing considering the RAVE reviews coming from everyone from coaches, to players, to media about how explosive and smooth Cook has looked. With a revamped OLine and path cleared for the starting load, Cook's bust potential has substantially fallen in the past week

I have trouble believing in the success of a rookie who had such a bad combine. He will probably have a decent year based on volume and receptions, but I fully expect him to be a highly inefficient runner. And for everyone who thinks Mixon has too many red flags, take a look at Cook's off-field incidents.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I don't get the hate for McCaffrey on here either. He so far has had best reports of all of the running backs. Go and watch the video where Luke kuechley can't stay with him. No way he is a bust. No one even mentions Mixon despite reports already out that Marvin Lewis is still planning a big role for both Gio and Hill.

Near as I can tell the McCaffrey hate stems from his size and his race. People will cite a million made up reasons for not liking him but I haven't heard a single coherent argument against him that didn't fall back to "his size inherently caps his upside" or "he's white". They don't think he'll be a 3 down back and they're right. He'll be a 4 down back.

i keep getting flashbacks of reggie bush.

[Knox Steel Curtain]

Totally agree on Cook. You can't ignore the combine and his measurables that tell us he is an average athlete. Those things matter when you move to he NFL. I will take Mixon and Mccafrey easily over Cook in all draft formats. Cook has several red flags with his character and is not best in pass protection.
I have heard several say he will win rookie of year. I just don't see that at all with way Zimmer uses young players, and with players like Fournett and Mccafrey already having key roles in their offenses.

[tstafford]

I mean is Gio Bernard (a common 1.01 pick that year) really any less of a disappointment than Donald Brown? Sure he's hung around the league but he hasn't been particularly fantasy relevant.

This could not be less true.

PPR scoring:

2013- RB13
2014- RB16
2015- RB17
2016- RB41 (injured but averaged 12.5 PPG when he played, the same as Gurley. If he'd not been injured he'd have had another mid-RB2 season at least)

Gio has been very fantasy relevant. I don't know why he gets so much crap and I'd be happy to have him on my squad in any league I'm in. He's a serious buy low right now.

Good point. But you sort of make my point - very few people would say that Bernard is now (or really ever was) a top fantasy asset but he was the 1.01 in a lot of cases. Clearly you like him and that's great. But the value isn't there as evidenced by him being a "serious buy low".

Also I think his stats are a tad misleading - he's what Eric Harder calls an "accumulator". They grind out stats through the year, end up ranked like you show but are never terrific fantasy options. Chris Thompson is another example. But we're way off topic debating Gio.

[Knox Steel Curtain]

Gio is a great player to have that is reliable and is cheap. You can count on RB2 consistent numbers and that is big. Mixon and Gio will be a great tandem.

[TTHTD]

I mean is Gio Bernard (a common 1.01 pick that year) really any less of a disappointment than Donald Brown? Sure he's hung around the league but he hasn't been particularly fantasy relevant.

This could not be less true.

PPR scoring:

2013- RB13
2014- RB16
2015- RB17
2016- RB41 (injured but averaged 12.5 PPG when he played, the same as Gurley. If he'd not been injured he'd have had another mid-RB2 season at least)

Gio has been very fantasy relevant. I don't know why he gets so much crap and I'd be happy to have him on my squad in any league I'm in. He's a serious buy low right now.

Good point. But you sort of make my point - very few people would say that Bernard is now (or really ever was) a top fantasy asset but he was the 1.01 in a lot of cases. Clearly you like him and that's great. But the value isn't there as evidenced by him being a "serious buy low".

Also I think his stats are a tad misleading - he's what Eric Harder calls an "accumulator". They grind out stats through the year, end up ranked like you show but are never terrific fantasy options. Chris Thompson is another example. But we're way off topic debating Gio.

He's a serious buy low not because the value isn't there but because he got seriously injured and as a result didn't meet expectations which lowered his value and then the Bengals drafted Mixon who everyone has already dubbed a 3 down stud and because people are buying into that it's lowering Gio's value even more in some people's eyes. Mostly Mixon fans I've noticed. So much so that they're rewriting history and apparently believing he's not fantasy relevant... It's just a lot of recency bias. The coaches have been saying that he'll likely have the same role or larger so if that's true I'd expect him to finish RB17+ if he plays every game. You're trying to paint a talented and successful player as some kind of bust but honestly his stats really speak for themselves. He's not as productive as some people may have hoped for if they thought he'd be a RB1 but he's pretty much achieved the 2nd best possible outcome for a high draft pick. There's certainly way worst fates for 1.01 picks.

[ImaRounder]

Man I remember when the combine was a true indicator of success in the NFL, especially for RBS. If you run the fastest in a straight line, no, if you run around these cones fastest, no no only if you can lift this bar at least 15 times. None of you have any idea what makes a good football player. It darn sure isn't the numbers reported at the combine. It's absolutely not what they did in college.

If McCaffrey is good, it's not because he shook Luke kuechly, who will NEVER cover a RB coming out of the backfield. It'll be because he was utilized correctly and he has the mental fortitude to handle everything that's going on around him. The best thing (more important than his great combine, and his record breaking all-purpose yards season) is the fact that he comes from a pro athlete family. Both of his parents performed at the highest stage. He knows what is necessary to be a professional.

Dalvin cooks numbers from the combine can be thrown out. If his numbers are inefficient it's from his line and scheme. He was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage the most in college football last year and still had a good year. The jury is out if he can produce at this level. How slow is too slow. Can vision make up for the lack of agility? We will find out.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't get the hate for McCaffrey on here either. He so far has had best reports of all of the running backs. Go and watch the video where Luke kuechley can't stay with him. No way he is a bust. No one even mentions Mixon despite reports already out that Marvin Lewis is still planning a big role for both Gio and Hill.

In real NFL terms, I think McCaffrey has a huge chance of being a bust. He's not a traditional workhorse back, and history shows that drafting an RB that high who isn't one will backfire. C-Mac is more of a weapon than an RB.

I wouldn't be interested in standard formats. When Stewart is done, I think Carolina will draft an RB who can handle early down work. In PPR formats, he could excel, but I just don't see the Panthers relying on him a ton long-term.

[kmbryant09]

I don't get the hate for McCaffrey on here either. He so far has had best reports of all of the running backs. Go and watch the video where Luke kuechley can't stay with him. No way he is a bust. No one even mentions Mixon despite reports already out that Marvin Lewis is still planning a big role for both Gio and Hill.

In real NFL terms, I think McCaffrey has a huge chance of being a bust. He's not a traditional workhorse back, and history shows that drafting an RB that high who isn't one will backfire. C-Mac is more of a weapon than an RB.

I wouldn't be interested in standard formats. When Stewart is done, I think Carolina will draft an RB who can handle early down work. In PPR formats, he could excel, but I just don't see the Panthers relying on him a ton long-term.

Just curious what makes you think he's not a workhorse back?

Over the past two seasons in college, he averaged 23.6 carries per game & 3.2 catches per game - about 27 total touches per game without even considering his Kickoff & Punt return touches. I understand that players in the NFL are bigger & stronger than in college, but nothing about C-Mac's usage suggests he's limited in the amount of touches that he can handle.

Is it possible that he's BOTH a workhorse Running Back AND an offensive weapon? What suggests that he can't handle 15 - 18 carries per game and 3 - 4 catches per game, lining up occasionally as a slot receiver and fielding a few punts? Certainly, those ~20+ touches per game would give him enough opportunity to produce top5 or top10 fantasy numbers. I see a lot of Reggie Bush comparisons, but people must forget that Bush only averaged 13 carries and ~16 total touches per game during his final 2 seasons in college - far from a workhorse workload.

I don't own C-Mac (unfortunately), but I think his haters mistakenly use his versatility as a reason why he can't handle a full workload. Why isn't it possible that he can handle a full workload AND be a versatile weapon?

[spotxc]

History makes them think that..at least thats what i gather from their posts..Cant defeat history true or not

[Cameron Giles]

Just curious what makes you think he's not a workhorse back?

Over the past two seasons in college, he averaged 23.6 carries per game & 3.2 catches per game - about 27 total touches per game without even considering his Kickoff & Punt return touches. I understand that players in the NFL are bigger & stronger than in college, but nothing about C-Mac's usage suggests he's limited in the amount of touches that he can handle.

Is it possible that he's BOTH a workhorse Running Back AND an offensive weapon? What suggests that he can't handle 15 - 18 carries per game and 3 - 4 catches per game, lining up occasionally as a slot receiver and fielding a few punts? Certainly, those ~20+ touches per game would give him enough opportunity to produce top5 or top10 fantasy numbers. I see a lot of Reggie Bush comparisons, but people must forget that Bush only averaged 13 carries and ~16 total touches per game during his final 2 seasons in college - far from a workhorse workload.

I don't own C-Mac (unfortunately), but I think his haters mistakenly use his versatility as a reason why he can't handle a full workload. Why isn't it possible that he can handle a full workload AND be a versatile weapon?

He's not strong or big enough to handle the traditional workload of an early-down RB. He is basically the same size as:

-Duke Johnson (5'9, 207, BMI - 59th percentile)
-Giovani Bernard (5'8, 202, BMI - 63rd percentile)
-Theo Riddick (5'10, 201, BMI - 21st percentile)
-Danny Woodhead (5'8, 195, BMI - 38th percentile)

Would you argue that any of those players can be workhorses or early down backs?

McCaffery: 5'11, 202, BMI - 9th percentile.

His 10 reps on the bench press are a big red flag to how much he can handle. How many featured backs can only do 10 reps of 225? He just doesn't have the upper body strength to be durable. Which is why, they'll move him around the field rather than hand the ball off to him out the backfield.

I think part of why he went so high is because Carolina thinks he could be an all-time special teams player. But, I don't think they envision him as doing what Jonathan Stewart or Deangelo Williams did.

[Defender]

Just curious what makes you think he's not a workhorse back?

Over the past two seasons in college, he averaged 23.6 carries per game & 3.2 catches per game - about 27 total touches per game without even considering his Kickoff & Punt return touches. I understand that players in the NFL are bigger & stronger than in college, but nothing about C-Mac's usage suggests he's limited in the amount of touches that he can handle.

Is it possible that he's BOTH a workhorse Running Back AND an offensive weapon? What suggests that he can't handle 15 - 18 carries per game and 3 - 4 catches per game, lining up occasionally as a slot receiver and fielding a few punts? Certainly, those ~20+ touches per game would give him enough opportunity to produce top5 or top10 fantasy numbers. I see a lot of Reggie Bush comparisons, but people must forget that Bush only averaged 13 carries and ~16 total touches per game during his final 2 seasons in college - far from a workhorse workload.

I don't own C-Mac (unfortunately), but I think his haters mistakenly use his versatility as a reason why he can't handle a full workload. Why isn't it possible that he can handle a full workload AND be a versatile weapon?

He's not strong or big enough to handle the traditional workload of an early-down RB. He is basically the same size as:

-Duke Johnson (5'9, 207, BMI - 59th percentile)
-Giovani Bernard (5'8, 202, BMI - 63rd percentile)
-Theo Riddick (5'10, 201, BMI - 21st percentile)
-Danny Woodhead (5'8, 195, BMI - 38th percentile)

Would you argue that any of those players can be workhorses or early down backs?

McCaffery: 5'11, 202, BMI - 9th percentile.

I think Cook could be added to this list, as he is just 1 inch taller and 3 lbs heavier than Duke Johnson.

Dalvin Cook: 5'10, 210, (not sure where this puts his BMI, but I would estimate sub 50th percentile.)

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Dalvin Cook: 5'10, 210, (not sure where this puts his BMI, but I would estimate sub 50th percentile.)

50th according to playerprofiler.