2017 Rookie Surprise Sleepers and Busts

[Cameron Giles]

I think Cook could be added to this list, as he is just 1 inch taller and 3 lbs heavier than Duke Johnson.

Dalvin Cook: 5'10, 210, (not sure where this puts his BMI, but I would estimate sub 50th percentile.)

50th percentile, but he hit 22 reps of 225. Cook's upper body shouldn't prevent him from being good. His agility though is another thing..

[btv802]

I dont quite get how Kamara can be labelled a possible bust surprise or otherwise. I think it is pretty clear that everyone expects him to play behind Ingram and Peterson and the only way he'll get meaningful touches this year is if one of them gets injured or is simply ineffective - so unless he actually gets meaningful touches AND then does nothing with them can he be considered to bust (for 2017 purposes).

Just not an exciting prospect for me to be going so high in rookie drafts. For me he's the quintessential, "situation over talent" pick in this rookie class. So if his situation isn't actually great for immediate production I can't get behind it at all.

[mratlanta]

He's not strong or big enough to handle the traditional workload of an early-down RB. He is basically the same size as:

-Duke Johnson (5'9, 207, BMI - 59th percentile)
-Giovani Bernard (5'8, 202, BMI - 63rd percentile)
-Theo Riddick (5'10, 201, BMI - 21st percentile)
-Danny Woodhead (5'8, 195, BMI - 38th percentile)

Would you argue that any of those players can be workhorses or early down backs?

McCaffery: 5'11, 202, BMI - 9th percentile.

His 10 reps on the bench press are a big red flag to how much he can handle. How many featured backs can only do 10 reps of 225? He just doesn't have the upper body strength to be durable. Which is why, they'll move him around the field rather than hand the ball off to him out the backfield.

I think part of why he went so high is because Carolina thinks he could be an all-time special teams player. But, I don't think they envision him as doing what Jonathan Stewart or Deangelo Williams did.

This is statistical bias at its worst. Yes, the prototypical RB may be 6'0"+ and 220+ but there are multiple backs in the size range you are referencing that are/were elite including:
Devonta Freeman - 5'8" 206
Lesean McCoy - 5'10" 198
MJD - 5'7" 210 (playing weight, not current weight lol)
Jamaal Charles - 5'11" 199 - several years of elite production before late career injuries

[ArrylT]

Just bumping this for review.

[ArrylT]

Stud: Juju. I wanted to put Godwin here, but he's going to take a year or two so he won't be a "surprise stud this year." Joe Williams was also my surprise stud before the draft, but now he's trending in the opposite direction with all the hype he's getting.

Bust: Fournette - Don't kill me, just a gut feeling. CMC, although I think he'll be good, I don't think he'll be great like a lot of people expect.

As far as I can tell you were the only person to correctly suggest Juju as a surprise Rookie Stud.

[darewood11]

Wow tons of calls for kamara to bust...that just goes to show how volatile rookies are.

[Servo]

I didn't even want to sniff Kamara this past draft, and I talked myself out of Michael Thomas last year.....just appears that Sean Payton knows what the hell he's doing when it comes to finding diamonds in the rough.

[ArrylT]

I didn't even want to sniff Kamara this past draft, and I talked myself out of Michael Thomas last year.....just appears that Sean Payton knows what the hell he's doing when it comes to finding diamonds in the rough.

I did the same re: Michael Thomas as well.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I didn't even want to sniff Kamara this past draft, and I talked myself out of Michael Thomas last year.....just appears that Sean Payton knows what the hell he's doing when it comes to finding diamonds in the rough.

Or having an innovative coach with a HOF qb makes most players look better Willie snead

[C_n_red_again]

Dd in most cases I’d agree with your statement. However after watching many saints games mike Thomas and Kamara are just plain studs in their own right. Mike Thomas in particular more than held his own against the mighty Xavier Rhodes and bested him on quite a few occasions

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Dd in most cases I’d agree with your statement. However after watching many saints games mike Thomas and Kamara are just plain studs in their own right. Mike Thomas in particular more than held his own against the mighty Xavier Rhodes and bested him on quite a few occasions

I don't disagree but at the same time I simply don't believe they'd be putting up the same numbers/efficiency elsewhere.

[UATahoe]

I would agree. Kamara is definitely a niche player that found the perfect spot. Like his talent but he is very offense dependent.

[Pac_Eddy]

Mike Thomas in particular more than held his own against the mighty Xavier Rhodes and bested him on quite a few occasions

Michael Thomas had 3 catches for 46 yards, 1 TD on 8 targets. Beyond getting a score, that's a win for Rhodes.

[Servo]

Maybe in the case of Michael Thomas, yes, having one of the best QBs of all-time....gotsta help but Kamara? I feel like Payton finds dudes off the street who end up being great assets for that team.

[btv802]

My only call here is gonna be Alvin Kamara as a bust. Considering he and Dalvin seem to go back to back in a lot of rookie drafts and he's being drafted as the "situation" guy....think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with that investment both short & long term.

Just not an exciting prospect for me to be going so high in rookie drafts. For me he's the quintessential, "situation over talent" pick in this rookie class. So if his situation isn't actually great for immediate production I can't get behind it at all.