Over-Raided?

[Tsunami]

Carr so far is a good fantasy QB, but so is Roethlisberger, Rivers, Manning, Cousins, Bortles, Prescott, Stafford, Mariota, Dalton, Palmer, Taylor, etc. Carr hasn't done anything to differentiate himself from the pack. Newton and Wilson have the potential to do it, though they didn't last year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Luck, and maybe Ryan are the only QBs significantly better than average. To say Carr is better than Luck is crazy. If Luck gets hurt just pick up one of those other dozen guys, you're still better off.

Literally everyone in this thread says Lynch is overrated. How can he be overrated if nobody likes him? He is underrated here.

disagree with they Ryan thing, he had a career year last year in a huge way

his TD rate was double what it's been the other 8 seasons he's played, his yards per attempt were 2 yards over his career average, his int total was the lowest its been since 2010, he had a career high in passing yards but the 3rd fewest attempts (about 5 attempts/game lower than his average over the previous 4 years), then he went and lost his OC after the season was over

Ryan's value is going to plummet after this season and he doesn't repeat what he did a year ago (same way Cam's dropped a ton last year), although I agree Carr isn't close to Luck's level of talent/value he's at or above Ryan's level for sure

Matt Ryan has been a top-5 QB in passing yards for the past 5 straight seasons, and he has been top-6 in passing TD for 4 out of the last 6 seasons. He has a career 64.9% completion rate, which puts him in 8th place all time, and he's 5th all time in passing yards per game. He's top-10 all time in INT percentage, and 11th all time in QB rating. If he were on a better team and had a Super Bowl win or two he would be a Hall of Famer. He still might be. 2016 wasn't a fluke, 2015 was.

[Jason3123]

Pretty fascinating how people assume Cooper can't be a top 5 WR. They probably said the same about Evans last year, DT after year 2, probably didn't think ARob could be a top 5 WR or Nuk who I remember was going late round 2/3 but hey they did it for 1 season. Julio also doesn't score touchdowns and he's had some pretty monster seasons. I bet they never saw Antonio Brown becoming a top 5 WR either or were passing on Beckham in those 2014 rookie drafts for Bishop Sankey.

So weird that people can't see forward, they can only react to what they've seen. Cooper was an elite prospect, at an elite college level, and now he's had one of the greatest starts to an NFL career ever. He's set with a pretty solid QB who also hasn't hit his peak either for the next decade, unlike Nuk or ARob. Barring some crazy injuries, he will be a round 1 pick in fantasy for years to come.

If Cooper maintains the same "slight" improvement he had in Y2, which was 15% increase in receptions, 7% in yards, his numbers jump to 95 receptions and 1242 yards. Even if he doesn't improve his touchdowns and he scores a measly 5 again, that's a 250 point season. Which would be a mid WR1.

The fact that he's already posted two WR2 seasons while and he's not even 23 is crazy. This dude isn't even close to his prime yet.

[StableOfRBs]

Carr so far is a good fantasy QB, but so is Roethlisberger, Rivers, Manning, Cousins, Bortles, Prescott, Stafford, Mariota, Dalton, Palmer, Taylor, etc. Carr hasn't done anything to differentiate himself from the pack. Newton and Wilson have the potential to do it, though they didn't last year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Luck, and maybe Ryan are the only QBs significantly better than average. To say Carr is better than Luck is crazy. If Luck gets hurt just pick up one of those other dozen guys, you're still better off.

Literally everyone in this thread says Lynch is overrated. How can he be overrated if nobody likes him? He is underrated here.

disagree with they Ryan thing, he had a career year last year in a huge way

his TD rate was double what it's been the other 8 seasons he's played, his yards per attempt were 2 yards over his career average, his int total was the lowest its been since 2010, he had a career high in passing yards but the 3rd fewest attempts (about 5 attempts/game lower than his average over the previous 4 years), then he went and lost his OC after the season was over

Ryan's value is going to plummet after this season and he doesn't repeat what he did a year ago (same way Cam's dropped a ton last year), although I agree Carr isn't close to Luck's level of talent/value he's at or above Ryan's level for sure

Matt Ryan has been a top-5 QB in passing yards for the past 5 straight seasons, and he has been top-6 in passing TD for 4 out of the last 6 seasons. He has a career 64.9% completion rate, which puts him in 8th place all time, and he's 5th all time in passing yards per game. He's top-10 all time in INT percentage, and 11th all time in QB rating. If he were on a better team and had a Super Bowl win or two he would be a Hall of Famer. He still might be. 2016 wasn't a fluke, 2015 was.

-Tied for 9th in TDs for 2013, tied for 10th in 2014, 17th in 2015
-#2 on the completion % list is Chad Pennington, #13 is Matt Schaub, #14 is Tom Brady, #54 is Andrew Luck, #40 is Tim Couch, #32 is Carr, etc. doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between career comp % and ability to be a HoFer, or even good for that matter
-3-way tie for #2 on the int % list between Kaep, Brady and Carr, Matt Ryan is tied with Jeff Garcia and Mark Brunell, #7 is Neil O'Donnell, #13 is a tie between David Garrard and Jason Campbell, again not much of a correlation between this stat and being a good QB
-Ryan is tied with Cousins for career passer rating at #11, #14 is Chad Pennington, Dan Marino is #26, Luck is #22, #20 is Daunte Culpepper, #19 is Carr, again no correlation between talent and career passer rating

Ryan's 2016 season
-534 attempts, 373 completions, 69.9% comp rating, 4944 yards, 9.3 yards/attempt, 309 yards/game, 1.3% int rate, 7.1% TD rate, 117.1 passer rating

Ryan's career averages minus 2016 season (all-time career placement where available)
-566 attempts, 364 completions, 64.3% comp rating (11th), 4095 yards, 7.2 yards/attempt (53rd), 260 yards/game (8th), 2.4% int rate (13th), 4.4 TD rate (75th), 90.7 passer rating (14th)

Derek Carr's career averages
-577 attempts, 352 completions, 60.9% comp rating, 3731 yards, 6.6 yards/attempt, 238 yards/game, 1.8% in rate, 4.7% TD rate, 87.9 passer rating

Ryan is a good QB, never said he wasn't, especially when it comes to getting passing yards, he's great at it, but 2016 is an outlier and you can't say that it isn't. 2015 was too, albeit much less so, and was really only a bad season for him in terms of TDs and Ints, although he was pretty close to average with both of those as well (in fact he was above average in 2015 in yards/attempt, comp %, passing yards and yards/game). So yeah those stats you mentioned look pretty but they're somewhat inflated by last year's numbers, Ryan isn't a HoFer now and most likely won't be unless 2016 is his new norm, which given the previous 8 years of his career, is highly unlikely.

Given the difference in age and the changes in the supporting cast Carr is more of a value at this point in dynasty (if you neglect his rookie year when he had no receivers to throw to and no run game Carr's averages are much closer, and in some cases better, than Ryan's prior to 2016)

[Tsunami]

Given the difference in age and the changes in the supporting cast Carr is more of a value at this point in dynasty (if you neglect his rookie year when he had no receivers to throw to and no run game Carr's averages are much closer, and in some cases better, than Ryan's prior to 2016)

If you neglect his rookie year Carr's averages are also his ceiling, and are average across the league also. Unless he steps up significantly he's not worth any more than the 10 other guys I listed. Ryan was a top-5 dynasty QB before 2015's drop in TDs hurt his value, which for some reason hasn't recovered despite his great 2016. He's still severely underrated. And I don't know how you can say the Raiders have a significantly better supporting cast than the Falcons, I mean Crabtree is very good but they have no WR3 and who knows how good Lynch will be.

Very few QBs ever have a fantasy season as good as Ryan was last year. In the history of the NFL it has only happened 17 times by 10 different QBs. It's not likely to happen again this year, but it's not likely Carr will ever do it either. Ryan has beaten Carr's best season 4 times in 7 years, even if you ignore 2016 he's a better QB.

[Vcize]

Given the difference in age and the changes in the supporting cast Carr is more of a value at this point in dynasty (if you neglect his rookie year when he had no receivers to throw to and no run game Carr's averages are much closer, and in some cases better, than Ryan's prior to 2016)

If you neglect his rookie year Carr's averages are also his ceiling, and are average across the league also. Unless he steps up significantly he's not worth any more than the 10 other guys I listed. Ryan was a top-5 dynasty QB before 2015's drop in TDs hurt his value, which for some reason hasn't recovered despite his great 2016. He's still severely underrated. And I don't know how you can say the Raiders have a significantly better supporting cast than the Falcons, I mean Crabtree is very good but they have no WR3 and who knows how good Lynch will be.

This hurts your point, not helps it. Ryan was a top 5 dynasty QB back then but he had never actually put up a top 5 fantasy season.

And through 3 years Carr has done a whole lot more than Ryan had done through 3 years. Carr is a highly rated fantasy QB for the same reasons that Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are. Their futures, not their past.

[StableOfRBs]

Given the difference in age and the changes in the supporting cast Carr is more of a value at this point in dynasty (if you neglect his rookie year when he had no receivers to throw to and no run game Carr's averages are much closer, and in some cases better, than Ryan's prior to 2016)

If you neglect his rookie year Carr's averages are also his ceiling, and are average across the league also. Unless he steps up significantly he's not worth any more than the 10 other guys I listed. Ryan was a top-5 dynasty QB before 2015's drop in TDs hurt his value, which for some reason hasn't recovered despite his great 2016. He's still severely underrated. And I don't know how you can say the Raiders have a significantly better supporting cast than the Falcons, I mean Crabtree is very good but they have no WR3 and who knows how good Lynch will be.

Very few QBs ever have a fantasy season as good as Ryan was last year. In the history of the NFL it has only happened 17 times by 10 different QBs. It's not likely to happen again this year, but it's not likely Carr will ever do it either. Ryan has beaten Carr's best season 4 times in 7 years, even if you ignore 2016 he's a better QB.

Never said this actually, just said that there were changes to his supporting cast.

It's a way too small of a sample size to say that Carr's second and third years are his ceiling, especially since you can easily throw out his rookie year. I expect bleep all from a rookie QB who's best WR is the 30 year old James Jones and his leading rusher has <550 yards. Between his first and second years they added Cooper and Crabtree, beefed up the OL, actually had a run game (an oft-injured DMC, rookie Latavius and old MJD do not count) and even made some decent FA additions to their defense so games weren't completely on Carr.

Matt Ryan had the benefit of throwing to Roddy White to start his career (and Michael Jenkins wasn't a bad #2) and then added Julio Jones on top of it 3 years later, not to mention that Michael Turner (while not the best back ever) was better than anyone Carr had his rookie season and yet Carr's rookie season is fairly comparable to Ryan's in terms of comp %, yards, TDs and ints.

You keep mentioning his 2015 season like it was some horrible year for him, he threw 4 fewer TDs and 3 more Ints than his career average and was better than average in yards, yards/attempt, comp % and yards/game, having 12 fumbles didn't help but people tend to tunnel a bit on QBs passing stats (hence why Tyrod always goes late even though he gets a ton of rushing production) so his value didn't tank just from that, it had more to do with the people around him playing better. You're right, in 2015 he was the 5th QB taken on average, but 6 and 7 were Bridgewater and Tannehill, both taken ahead of Brees, Winston, Mariota, Carr, Stafford, Ben and Brady so I wouldn't really use it as concrete evidence of Ryan's real value.

Also if you look at the Mizelle ADP from all drafts from February until now Matt Ryan is coming off the board as the QB8, ahead of guys like Brees, Brady, Cousins, Stafford and Dak and he's the only one aside from Rodgers and Brady in the top 10 who is over 30 years old so I find it very hard to believe that he is "severely underrated".

[Tsunami]

You're right, in 2015 he was the 5th QB taken on average, but 6 and 7 were Bridgewater and Tannehill, both taken ahead of Brees, Winston, Mariota, Carr, Stafford, Ben and Brady so I wouldn't really use it as concrete evidence of Ryan's real value.

Also if you look at the Mizelle ADP from all drafts from February until now Matt Ryan is coming off the board as the QB8, ahead of guys like Brees, Brady, Cousins, Stafford and Dak and he's the only one aside from Rodgers and Brady in the top 10 who is over 30 years old so I find it very hard to believe that he is "severely underrated".

This is what I'm saying, they're making the same mistake with Carr, Winston, and Mariota that they were making with Tannehill and Bridgewater.

Top 6 now: Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Winston, Mariota, Carr. Three of them have done nothing.
June 2016: Newton, Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, Winston, Bortles. Winston finished 16th and moved up a spot.
2015: Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Ryan, Tannehill, Bridgewater. Tannehill finished 17th.
2014: Luck, Rodgers, Newton, Brees, Stafford, Foles, Peyton, RGIII. Stafford finished 15th.
2013: Rodgers, Newton, Luck, Brees, RGIII, Kaepernick. Griffin finished 18th.
2012: Rodgers, Newton, Stafford, Brees, Brady, Eli Manning. Eli finished 15th. Stafford made it up to 10th, so of course his ADP tanked.

People do it every year, they hype up a young QB who hasn't done anything and never will. Your odds that Carr is the next Luck are very low, and to put him ahead of Luck himself is nutso.

Cousins finished 8th and 5th the last two years and is now QB10 by ADP, figure that one out. Tyrod Taylor finished 10th and 8th, and is now QB15. Prescott finished 6th his rookie year and is QB12. None of these were significantly apart from the pack, but they still don't make any sense.

[ArrylT]

Considering the contract they just gave Carr - I have a feeling the Oakland Raiders disagree with your statement about a young QB who hasn't done nothing.

[trc]

Considering the contract they just gave Carr - I have a feeling the Oakland Raiders disagree with your statement about a young QB who hasn't done nothing.

Because he is valued as a franchise QB by his franchise doesn't automatically make him top 5 QB fantasy spot and separating him from rest the huge pack of 2nd/3rd tier of QBs. There is a lot of franchise QBs in those tiers.