Are top rookies suffering more first year injuries?

[saw061600]

Just wondering if anyone has read any research. The past 3 years seem to have a lot of rookies, top picks on both sides of the ball, getting injured before or during camp. Worse, they seem to be missing more of year 1, or all of year 1, putting them further behind. If they are, how should that effect rookie drafts and the value of rookie picks?

[IBall2]

This was briefly covered in a recent topic. Link below - But I would like to hear some more thoughts on this topic.

viewtopic.php?p=1290375#p1289881

In the link I posted, Valhalla had an interesting idea. He stated that he thought it was because of the pre-combine training routine that rookies are now going through that could be causing the issues. But nobody has brought forth any data to back up any potential reasons for the injuries.

[schiewerma21]

It does make me chuckle on the "wr over rb" groupthink because people have this notion that they are safer.
The 2014 class poisoned everyone and since we have had white perrimen Parker doctson Coleman big mike and john ross is still hurt in just first round high profile WRs alone.
Plus megavusts agholor dorsett and treadwell in round 1.

Rookies are a risk. I think just like after 2014 we all thought they were great now we are back to recognizing what a gamble they are

[bruiser]

I have bought into a slowly brewing notion that ever since the current CBA was signed, we've been seeing the fallout of a rookie wage scale. The cascading effect of college players coming out as early as possible to start the clock on a four year non-negotiable term of employment is that they are too young to be ready as rookies. If there is any reason at all that a team can utilize an IR spot for these players (no salary cap ramifications AND the player doesn't have to clear waivers to be stashed on taxi squad).... you see where this idea is born.

I know that there are some very vocal fantasy football-minded people in the community that completely dismiss salary cap and roster manipulation in the NFL as reasons for redshirt seasons. You ask a fair question, and I am only passing along the sentiments of a few that I've read. Perhaps this is not as reported in the media because it is not widely understood and is being exploited by a minority of NFL franchises. Also, there are provisions for a team to toll a player's rookie contact for one extra year if certain conditions warrant it.

[pokerface40]

I have bought into a slowly brewing notion that ever since the current CBA was signed, we've been seeing the fallout of a rookie wage scale. The cascading effect of college players coming out as early as possible to start the clock on a four year non-negotiable term of employment is that they are too young to be ready as rookies. If there is any reason at all that a team can utilize an IR spot for these players (no salary cap ramifications AND the player doesn't have to clear waivers to be stashed on taxi squad).... you see where this idea is born.

I know that there are some very vocal fantasy football-minded people in the community that completely dismiss salary cap and roster manipulation in the NFL as reasons for redshirt seasons. You ask a fair question, and I am only passing along the sentiments of a few that I've read. Perhaps this is not as reported in the media because it is not widely understood and is being exploited by a minority of NFL franchises. Also, there are provisions for a team to toll a player's rookie contact for one extra year if certain conditions warrant it.

Very interesting take. It is crazy to think some of these guys are 21 years old and entering the NFL gauntlet. That said I think the recent onslaught of rookie injuries is an aberration. In fact I'm starting to think this rookie class might produce some studs from the git go. A lot of hype coming out of camps on several guys, most of whom I was high on. We are dynasty players so while fading rookie hype and capitalizing to flip for proven vets is a sound strategy, buying some of these guys may be cheaper than they will be a year from now. See: Fournette, Leonard.

[saw061600]

It does make me chuckle on the "wr over rb" groupthink because people have this notion that they are safer.
The 2014 class poisoned everyone and since we have had white perrimen Parker doctson Coleman big mike and john ross is still hurt in just first round high profile WRs alone.
Plus megavusts agholor dorsett and treadwell in round 1.

Rookies are a risk. I think just like after 2014 we all thought they were great now we are back to recognizing what a gamble they are

By the numbers, RBs are more likely to be replaced/get injured than WRs. WRs also have a longer career trajectory. However, I do agree that 2014 did make many owners believe that WRs were the unicorns and rainbows of fantasy land, slayers of the old guard during their rookie season. Truth is, top RB rookies are more likely to have an immediate impact than top WR rookies. But it's dynasty so WRs are still the better long-term play.

[HawkeyeState]

I absolutely think part of the issue is the rigorous pre-combine training and all that goes into that process, is partly contributing to more rookies being injured once they are in the NFL.

The top rookies are very typically on talented teams that play deep into the season, either in bowl games, or potentially all the way to the National Championship which this past year was on January 9th.
The Reese's Senior Bowl game was on January 27th, and that doesn't take into account practices and meetings etc that goes into that week.

Regardless of when your season ends, as a top player in the draft class, you are thrown right into rigorous training to prepare your body and mind to be in tip top shape to impress NFL scouts and executives.
The combine is literally a battle of attrition and who can get the most out of the little sleep they get.
Even after the combine, they have private workouts and meetings AND pro days with NFL teams where they don't want to appear in any way out of shape compared to their combine.

Then they have a short turn around to the NFL Draft which is a stressful event, and rookie minicamp starts not long after, short layoff again, where they need to be staying in shape and up to NFL level conditioning and strength, and then its time for training camp.

Long story short, from the time their last college season training camp starts, until after their first NFL season is over, they don't truly have a time to just rest.

Add in the CBA restrictions and pressures in today's world to earn money for your family and potentially go into the NFL before your ready, and you have a recipe for disaster quite honestly.