DeVante Parker

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Mefisto
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby Mefisto » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:25 am

Where to begin... I guess lets start with I'm a fan of Parker and am already on record saying that if Cutler signs with the Dolphins he is going to be a top 12 WR this year. So there's that.

SoRB, great analysis but there are a few things that need pointing out. First, Parker entered each of the last 2 years having had offseason surgery and not being full go to start the year. Whereas I don't think either Cooper has had the same issues and DJax, surprisingly for his size, doesn't seem to have had many in his career as well. Granted, this could be a negative against Parker as well but I'm not ready to call him injury prone yet. However, not having an offseason program and not being full speed is definitely going to negatively affect a young WR in every aspect of his game. Word is Parker has finally got his act together and he's looking great in preseason so far with Cutler.

As to Cutler, as a Bears fan I had the pain of watching him every week for a long while. He loves his big/fast guys. Loves, Loves, Loves. I would be incredibly surprised if Parker wasn't his #1 target by a long shot. Speaking of Landry, not only have the Dolphins not signed him to an extension, not only have they been shopping him around, but now there is apparently video of his domestic disturbance? It's not looking good for him right now in Miami. But lets talk about why he was so good the last 2 years. Landry is to Tannehill as Parker is to Cutler. Tannehill doesn't have a very good deep ball and instead is very good in the short game, Landry's bread and butter. It's the exact opposite with Cutler. Plus, Cutler is more likely to throw the ball up and give his receiver a chance to make a play, which Parker is very good at. Landry will be the Michael Bennett in this offense (sorry, are we really still considering Julius Thomas a threat for anything?) to Parker's Jeffery/Marshall.

Regarding Harmon's statistics... I hate statistics, without background info they don't mean crap. For example, offseason surgeries, missing practice time, having a QB whose strengths don't complement yours, having one of the worst coaching staffs his rookie year (the year these stats were compiled for). However, I'm not at all sure what these numbers are even trying to convey. And they were from his rookie year, and maybe college? We can all agree that most players don't peek at 22 and I can't seem to find any of this reception perception info on his last year so who knows, other than this Harmon cat, how he has improved on them?

Parker is a guy who has gotten better every year. He's doing exactly what you want a young raw prospect to do, improve on a yearly basis. Word is he finally has his head on straight and it's shown so far int he offseason. He now has a QB that is going to force feed him targets. 70/930/7 may have been a solid prediction with a healthy Tannehill. But now? If Parker can stay healthy I say 85/1200/8 is a floor. The question for me is what happens to him next year.

TL;DR: I'm on the opposite side of the spectrum from SoRB. Parker is going to be a stud this year.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 am

flyersfan1981 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:04 am
StableOfRBs wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:55 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:54 pm
Good post OP. I will add some comments/ replies to the points you brought up (since I am pretty sure you were referring to my post in the camp superstar thread).

Miami ran the least amount of plays of any team last year, being under the league average by more than 100 plays. A big reason for that was their atrocious run defense last year. A big reason they went as run-heavy as they did was to keep the defense off the field. With the LB and DL additions, they should have a much better run De this year, which should result in play quantity to be closer to the league average. Based on Gase's history and comments about wanting a more balanced offense, I think that will mostly result in more pass plays. They won't be the Saints, but I am at least expecting a couple more attempts per game.

As for Landry, I think you more highlighted concerns with Landry than with Parker. He has put up numbers on a crazy amount of targets. Part of that is because he is a really good option on the safe short throws, which can help offset a poor run game. Until Ajayi broke out, Miami had a pretty poor run game during Landry's Miami tenure, so if Ajayi continues to produce, I think Miami will find themselves not needing to feed Landry as many targets. I am not sure more pass attempts by the dolphins will equal more targets for Landry by the same factor.

There is also Landry's contract situation. Miami hasn't offered him an extension and they have made a point of hyping up Parker (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt). Reading the tea leaves, I see that as the Dolphins want to see if they really need Landry before they back the truck up for him. I think a big part of that decision will how Parker plays after his first healthy offseason, so I think he will have plenty of opportunities this year.

Thomas is about the same as Sims, and they basically traded an injured LT who just retired for him. I don't see that as a huge investment or promise of use. He should still be Parker's main competition for targets in the red zone. As for Landry in the red zone, yeah he is terrible. There is no way Parker is behind him. The 23 targets in 2015 were mostly 2-yard crossing patterns from the 10 on 3rd and goal. I remember each one of them getting my heart rate up like it was yesterday...

TL/DR: I think there are a lot of different ways targets could come for Parker to have a breakout year. I am not saying any specific one will happen, but if Parker is actually refining his routes and playing up to his athleticism, available targets shouldn't be an obstacle to him having a good year and out producing his current price.
You do realize that last year Parker had the worst RZ completion % of anyone on the Dolphins aside from Arian Foster who had 1 target. Parker was 5 for 9 on RZ targets last year and 2 for 9 the year before, last year Landry was 7 for 9, sure Parker is a bigger target but if he's not gonna catch it then why would they throw it to him?
Amari Cooper was 5-13 in the Red Zone last year, yet nobody talks about how awful he is in the Red Zone (besides me of course who has been worried about this for two years). He was 3-7 as a rookie, so let's not pretend that Cooper is a Top-5 WR (he shouldn't be Top-10) and that Parker is JAG because of this stat, please! Cooper's career Red Zone Catch % is 40%. Parker's is 39%.
Doesn't really matter since Cooper and Parker are on separate teams, the reason Parker's RZ catch % matters compared to Landry's is because they both play for the Dolphins and since Landry (and several other receivers in Miami) are more reliable in the RZ they'll be targeted more than Parker will. Would make since if you compared Cooper's RZ numbers to Crabtree's to highlight the fact that Crabtree is a better RZ option for the Raiders then by all means but the reason I pointed out Parker's catch % in the RZ was to show that he's got a lot of competition for targets there since he's proven he's just not great down there.

Also part of the reason Cooper is seen as a top receiver talent is his big-play ability due to his command over every route on the tree and his ability to create separation and yards after the catch, the RZ is pretty much the only area of the field he's deficient in and I don't think anyone ever said Cooper was top 5 let alone top 10. (Also plenty of people talk about this if you just listen to any podcast ever or read most articles about Cooper/the Raiders, general consensus is that he can put up solid numbers without RZ work and if he ever improved there he'd make a big leap in scoring)
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby flyersfan1981 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:45 am

Stable...sure if we want to compare him to Crabtree then we can, I don't have time to look at his numbers but my guess is they are much better.

And someone thinks Cooper is Top-5 if he is top 5 at the position in both the rankings and ADP.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:21 am

Mefisto wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:25 am
Where to begin... I guess lets start with I'm a fan of Parker and am already on record saying that if Cutler signs with the Dolphins he is going to be a top 12 WR this year. So there's that.

DJax, surprisingly for his size, doesn't seem to have had many in his career as well.

not only have they been shopping him around

Tannehill doesn't have a very good deep ball and instead is very good in the short game, Landry's bread and butter. It's the exact opposite with Cutler.

Plus, Cutler is more likely to throw the ball up and give his receiver a chance to make a play, which Parker is very good at.

Regarding Harmon's statistics... I hate statistics, without background info they don't mean crap. For example, offseason surgeries, missing practice time, having a QB whose strengths don't complement yours, having one of the worst coaching staffs his rookie year (the year these stats were compiled for).

However, I'm not at all sure what these numbers are even trying to convey. And they were from his rookie year, and maybe college? We can all agree that most players don't peek at 22 and I can't seem to find any of this reception perception info on his last year so who knows, other than this Harmon cat, how he has improved on them?

Parker is a guy who has gotten better every year. He's doing exactly what you want a young raw prospect to do, improve on a yearly basis. Word is he finally has his head on straight and it's shown so far int he offseason. He now has a QB that is going to force feed him targets. 70/930/7 may have been a solid prediction with a healthy Tannehill. But now? If Parker can stay healthy I say 85/1200/8 is a floor. The question for me is what happens to him next year.

TL;DR: I'm on the opposite side of the spectrum from SoRB. Parker is going to be a stud this year.
There's a lot in here so I'm just gonna go top to bottom

-DJax has missed 13 games over the past 5 seasons due to injury (same as Alshon) and is pretty much permanently questionable with a hamstring injury every week so I'd say he's somewhat injury prone
-Dolphins came out and told Landry to his face that they haven't been looking to trade him at all and that those are just rumors http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2729 ... or-star-wr
-Already went over the fact that not only do Cutler and Tannehill throw deep about the same amount but Cutler is also below average when doing so
-Parker has a contested catch rate of 44.4% last year, 56th in the NFL so I wouldn't say he's very good at going up and making plays
-Harmon did his RP profiles as part of the FantasyFootballers site this year and they're behind a paywall, I spent the 30 bucks for it though so I can tell you how he's improved from his rookie season: His rookie year his success rates vs. man and press coverage were both in the 3rd percentile (meaning 97% of WRs were better than he was) last year he improved on those numbers, now ranking in the 9th percentile against man coverage and the 6th percentile against press coverage and his success rate vs. zone coverage is now within the NFL average ~50th percentile (although this was one of his best positives coming out of college so I'm not surprised). Basically he struggles to get open when in man or press coverage against pretty much anybody and his ability to run routes with any sort of skill leave something to be desired.

Some players who were better vs. man and press coverage than Parker was last year:
-Chris Hogan
-Davante Adams
-Donte Moncrief
-Chris Conley
-Cam Meredith (RIP)
-Adam Thielen
-Emmanuel Sanders
-Kenny Britt

Not exactly a who's who of star players (although Sanders is probably the closest to it) and QB skill doesn't seem to be much of a factor either
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:29 am

flyersfan1981 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:45 am
Stable...sure if we want to compare him to Crabtree then we can, I don't have time to look at his numbers but my guess is they are much better.

And someone thinks Cooper is Top-5 if he is top 5 at the position in both the rankings and ADP.
in terms of dynasty? well yeah, he's 22 and has 2 1000-yard seasons under his belt with a young QB that he's already developing strong chemistry with, being a top-5 WR and being top-5 in WR ADP for dynasty are not the same thing, Jordy will probably finish ahead of Cooper in points this year but in a startup I'm taking Cooper first 100% of the time because I can get another decade of startable numbers out of him instead of 2 tops from Jordy (this is also ignoring that Cooper improved last year from his rookie season and by all accounts should improve again this year)
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby cazzie33 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:39 am

You guys are overanalyzing and trying to "prove " your theory with past statistics. Try projecting how Parker fits in the new Miami scheme. Surely Smokin' Jay's style is different than Tanneyhill. Therefore the statistics Devante racked up with Tanneyhill aren't a good basis to go off .Add to that Parker is evolving and some say Jarvis is devolving.

Barring injury around 120 targets and 75 receptions seems fairly moderate projections. Adjusting for Cutler's propensity to throw the long ball more than Tanneyhill add a bit to Parkers ypr so 14 yds per gets you just above 1000 yds for the season. Seven to eight TD's and you are @ 220 ish points range. Solidly in the WR 2 club.

Cherry picking stats breakdowns from bigger/smaller or older/newer samples not to mention differing offensive philosophies & surrounding talents don't directly apply to the coming season. Applying similar situations such as Parker's game is reminiscent of Alshon Jeffrey's gives you a basis for projecting likely outcomes. Cutler also has a long history with B. Marshall as a similar big body WR that he peppered with targets. So I feel comfortable in predicting 120 targets as a safe range.Could even be more if they click. If the injury bugaboo bites either again it could be less. Supposedly Devante is in his best shape ever.

I'm buying in at 220 ppr scoring w/upside for a little more.

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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby CK_ » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:35 am

First off stats never explain the full sorry... NEVER. They explain the past but they do not explain the future. These are people and people change year after year. Read their story and watching their workouts, food intake, and seeing what beat reporters 'Hype' explain more of a story than stats each year. Stats are a good basis for measurement but do not get wrapped into them, it just doesn't work.

They will move Parker to the right to benefit Cutler and their team.... it's crazy to not believe they wouldn't do that. Parker is their player that they obviously want to focus on and Carroo could potentially take Landrys spot. Honestly the only reason now why I could see them targeting Landry this year is trade value by the deadline. It's crazy to not think Parker will get a massive uptick this year and be destined for at the bottom line of 100 targets. HE. IS. THERE. FUTURE.....

2nd of all stop spilling out stats on other people. COME ON MAN! It's all hearsay even with stats, it's nice you are all doing your due diligence but it's all speculation at the end of the day. The stats aren't truth when it's about a person not named Parker, D.

Love you all good luck and get a potential steal in redraft with Parker in the 8-10 rounds. No risk high reward. ILL TAKE IT! Would rather go crowder in the 4th than Landry in the 3rd. That's me though.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby CK_ » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:36 am

Oh btw I'm literally one of landrys biggest fans since he entered into LSU. I love the dude he needs a new team because Parker will be the face of that franchise from a WR perspective.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby Vcize » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:02 pm

StableOfRBs wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 am
flyersfan1981 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:04 am
StableOfRBs wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:55 pm


You do realize that last year Parker had the worst RZ completion % of anyone on the Dolphins aside from Arian Foster who had 1 target. Parker was 5 for 9 on RZ targets last year and 2 for 9 the year before, last year Landry was 7 for 9, sure Parker is a bigger target but if he's not gonna catch it then why would they throw it to him?
Amari Cooper was 5-13 in the Red Zone last year, yet nobody talks about how awful he is in the Red Zone (besides me of course who has been worried about this for two years). He was 3-7 as a rookie, so let's not pretend that Cooper is a Top-5 WR (he shouldn't be Top-10) and that Parker is JAG because of this stat, please! Cooper's career Red Zone Catch % is 40%. Parker's is 39%.
Doesn't really matter since Cooper and Parker are on separate teams, the reason Parker's RZ catch % matters compared to Landry's is because they both play for the Dolphins and since Landry (and several other receivers in Miami) are more reliable in the RZ they'll be targeted more than Parker will. Would make since if you compared Cooper's RZ numbers to Crabtree's to highlight the fact that Crabtree is a better RZ option for the Raiders then by all means but the reason I pointed out Parker's catch % in the RZ was to show that he's got a lot of competition for targets there since he's proven he's just not great down there.

Also part of the reason Cooper is seen as a top receiver talent is his big-play ability due to his command over every route on the tree and his ability to create separation and yards after the catch, the RZ is pretty much the only area of the field he's deficient in and I don't think anyone ever said Cooper was top 5 let alone top 10. (Also plenty of people talk about this if you just listen to any podcast ever or read most articles about Cooper/the Raiders, general consensus is that he can put up solid numbers without RZ work and if he ever improved there he'd make a big leap in scoring)
Is 13 targets really a sample size worth considering?

I mean OBJ was 44% last year in the RZ. Fitzgerald 41%. Antonio Brown 42%. Demaryius 45%. Dez 28%.

Randall Cobb had the best RZ catch % on the Packers. Jack Doyle the highest on the Colts. Sterling Shepard the highest on the Giants. Beasely the highest on the Cowboys. Jesse James the highest on Pitt.

It doesn't really seem to be a stat that necessarily correlates well to RZ opportunities, especially on sample sizes this small.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:05 pm

I already explained to Stable last month when he started the topic why he shouldn't be citing Landry's red zone catch percentage as proof that he is a better red zone option than Parker.
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:03 pm
It is a pretty small sample size for Parker, but he is getting used a lot differently in the RZ than Landry. Landry's RZ completion % is a useless stat. the targets are almost never in the endzone. Him catching a 2 yard crossing route at the 15 is not the same as Parker going for a jump ball in the endzone.
Tannehill is check-down Charlie in the red zone, and he checks down to Landry. It is quite apparent when you watch the dolphins play, and the stats you are referencing back it up. How else would Landry have a high catch rate in the red zone on a high number of red zone targets, and subsequently have one of the lowest TD catch rates in the league?
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:21 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:05 pm
I already explained to Stable last month when he started the topic why he shouldn't be citing Landry's red zone catch percentage as proof that he is a better red zone option than Parker.
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:03 pm
It is a pretty small sample size for Parker, but he is getting used a lot differently in the RZ than Landry. Landry's RZ completion % is a useless stat. the targets are almost never in the endzone. Him catching a 2 yard crossing route at the 15 is not the same as Parker going for a jump ball in the endzone.
Tannehill is check-down Charlie in the red zone, and he checks down to Landry. It is quite apparent when you watch the dolphins play, and the stats you are referencing back it up. How else would Landry have a high catch rate in the red zone on a high number of red zone targets, and subsequently have one of the lowest TD catch rates in the league?
The 13 targets he was talking about were Coopers not Parkers, just saying, either way Parkers RZ stats are a moot point with Cutler under center, he and Tannehill play the same in general but idk about his RZ tendencies
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:24 pm

StableOfRBs wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:21 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:05 pm
I already explained to Stable last month when he started the topic why he shouldn't be citing Landry's red zone catch percentage as proof that he is a better red zone option than Parker.
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:03 pm
It is a pretty small sample size for Parker, but he is getting used a lot differently in the RZ than Landry. Landry's RZ completion % is a useless stat. the targets are almost never in the endzone. Him catching a 2 yard crossing route at the 15 is not the same as Parker going for a jump ball in the endzone.
Tannehill is check-down Charlie in the red zone, and he checks down to Landry. It is quite apparent when you watch the dolphins play, and the stats you are referencing back it up. How else would Landry have a high catch rate in the red zone on a high number of red zone targets, and subsequently have one of the lowest TD catch rates in the league?
The 13 targets he was talking about were Coopers not Parkers, just saying, either way Parkers RZ stats are a moot point with Cutler under center, he and Tannehill play the same in general but idk about his RZ tendencies
I know, you just brought up Parker and Landry's red zone efficiency again in this 2nd round (I thought, but I read through quickly, so maybe I misunderstood).
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:32 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:24 pm
StableOfRBs wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:21 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:05 pm
I already explained to Stable last month when he started the topic why he shouldn't be citing Landry's red zone catch percentage as proof that he is a better red zone option than Parker.



Tannehill is check-down Charlie in the red zone, and he checks down to Landry. It is quite apparent when you watch the dolphins play, and the stats you are referencing back it up. How else would Landry have a high catch rate in the red zone on a high number of red zone targets, and subsequently have one of the lowest TD catch rates in the league?
The 13 targets he was talking about were Coopers not Parkers, just saying, either way Parkers RZ stats are a moot point with Cutler under center, he and Tannehill play the same in general but idk about his RZ tendencies
I know, you just brought up Parker and Landry's red zone efficiency again in this 2nd round (I thought, but I read through quickly, so maybe I misunderstood).
Nope, was talking about Amari
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:46 pm

This is what I was replying to from earlier today:
StableOfRBs wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 am
The reason Parker's RZ catch % matters compared to Landry's is because they both play for the Dolphins and since Landry (and several other receivers in Miami) are more reliable in the RZ they'll be targeted more than Parker will.
I don't really want to engage you on this topic, since when I posted a long thought out response to your OP, you ignored all of it except for one line, ignored the context of that line, and responded to it in an incredulous/condescending tone. I usually like that you post a lot of interesting stats that can be useful, but I just think you are using numbers without proper context in this case.
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Re: DeVante Parker

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:54 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:46 pm
This is what I was replying to from earlier today:
StableOfRBs wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 am
The reason Parker's RZ catch % matters compared to Landry's is because they both play for the Dolphins and since Landry (and several other receivers in Miami) are more reliable in the RZ they'll be targeted more than Parker will.
I don't really want to engage you on this topic, since when I posted a long thought out response to your OP, you ignored all of it except for one line, ignored the context of that line, and responded to it in an incredulous/condescending tone. I usually like that you post a lot of interesting stats that can be useful, but I just think you are using numbers without proper context in this case.
Yeah because that was the only part of your post I disagreed with

Im curious, other than the RZ stats I posted last month what do you think hasn't had context?
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WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Ricky Seals-Jones
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Greek Mythology League - Heracles - 2QB/3RB/4WR/2TE/2Flex/2DT/2DE/4LB/2CB/2S/1DFlex:
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