Re: DeVante Parker
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:33 pm
https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/
https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/viewtopic.php?t=145085
Not saying he will get those numbers, but Parker is absolutely that type of player. He's not a slot guy who gets 7-12 yard easy catches, he's a big play guy on the outside. He has a lot of growing up to do, and that's on him, but he absolutely has the ceiling to be a poor man's DezStableOfRBs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:42 amI don't see him getting over 1000 yards if he's only gonna have 70 catches since averaging 14.5 yards per catch over a full season is very difficult to do and he'd need almost 15.5 Yds/catch for the number you listed above. The 8 TDs could happen but he'd need a lot of those targets to be RZ targets or he'd need to dramatically increase his catch rate (worst on the team last year for RZ targets with 55.6%)spotxc wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:21 am A young, highly talented first round wr who I could see putting together a line of 70/1080/8 in his third season would be worth his first round value to me.
Last year people swung too high for him, and now they're doing the opposite after not meeting their expectations. Realistically he should be a solid wr this year but ready to rise up the wr ranks fast. He seems serious and improving, which is the biggest thing for him since he holds the talent in spades
I could see 70/~930/6-7 but don't see much more than that unless he starts to overtake Landry
How is this QB any different than the one he had before, look at their career numbers, the main difference between Tannehill and Cutler is their interception rates
Cutler is waaaay different. He loves throwing it up to big receivers ala Marshall and Alshon. And he's competent with the deep ball. These should fit perfectly with Parker. Tannehill was much more conservative, which explains the interceptions. Can't just look at the numbers when comparing QBsStableOfRBs wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:37 amHow is this QB any different than the one he had before, look at their career numbers, the main difference between Tannehill and Cutler is their interception rates
Yes he's the kind of guy who runs those routes, go's, corners, posts, etc. but this is a receiver who has never had more than 55 catches in any season, college or pro level (and never had more than 885 yards in either)lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:45 pmNot saying he will get those numbers, but Parker is absolutely that type of player. He's not a slot guy who gets 7-12 yard easy catches, he's a big play guy on the outside. He has a lot of growing up to do, and that's on him, but he absolutely has the ceiling to be a poor man's DezStableOfRBs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:42 amI don't see him getting over 1000 yards if he's only gonna have 70 catches since averaging 14.5 yards per catch over a full season is very difficult to do and he'd need almost 15.5 Yds/catch for the number you listed above. The 8 TDs could happen but he'd need a lot of those targets to be RZ targets or he'd need to dramatically increase his catch rate (worst on the team last year for RZ targets with 55.6%)spotxc wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:21 am A young, highly talented first round wr who I could see putting together a line of 70/1080/8 in his third season would be worth his first round value to me.
Last year people swung too high for him, and now they're doing the opposite after not meeting their expectations. Realistically he should be a solid wr this year but ready to rise up the wr ranks fast. He seems serious and improving, which is the biggest thing for him since he holds the talent in spades
I could see 70/~930/6-7 but don't see much more than that unless he starts to overtake Landry
Amari Cooper was 5-13 in the Red Zone last year, yet nobody talks about how awful he is in the Red Zone (besides me of course who has been worried about this for two years). He was 3-7 as a rookie, so let's not pretend that Cooper is a Top-5 WR (he shouldn't be Top-10) and that Parker is JAG because of this stat, please! Cooper's career Red Zone Catch % is 40%. Parker's is 39%.StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:55 pmYou do realize that last year Parker had the worst RZ completion % of anyone on the Dolphins aside from Arian Foster who had 1 target. Parker was 5 for 9 on RZ targets last year and 2 for 9 the year before, last year Landry was 7 for 9, sure Parker is a bigger target but if he's not gonna catch it then why would they throw it to him?jtd1387 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:54 pm Good post OP. I will add some comments/ replies to the points you brought up (since I am pretty sure you were referring to my post in the camp superstar thread).
Miami ran the least amount of plays of any team last year, being under the league average by more than 100 plays. A big reason for that was their atrocious run defense last year. A big reason they went as run-heavy as they did was to keep the defense off the field. With the LB and DL additions, they should have a much better run De this year, which should result in play quantity to be closer to the league average. Based on Gase's history and comments about wanting a more balanced offense, I think that will mostly result in more pass plays. They won't be the Saints, but I am at least expecting a couple more attempts per game.
As for Landry, I think you more highlighted concerns with Landry than with Parker. He has put up numbers on a crazy amount of targets. Part of that is because he is a really good option on the safe short throws, which can help offset a poor run game. Until Ajayi broke out, Miami had a pretty poor run game during Landry's Miami tenure, so if Ajayi continues to produce, I think Miami will find themselves not needing to feed Landry as many targets. I am not sure more pass attempts by the dolphins will equal more targets for Landry by the same factor.
There is also Landry's contract situation. Miami hasn't offered him an extension and they have made a point of hyping up Parker (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt). Reading the tea leaves, I see that as the Dolphins want to see if they really need Landry before they back the truck up for him. I think a big part of that decision will how Parker plays after his first healthy offseason, so I think he will have plenty of opportunities this year.
Thomas is about the same as Sims, and they basically traded an injured LT who just retired for him. I don't see that as a huge investment or promise of use. He should still be Parker's main competition for targets in the red zone. As for Landry in the red zone, yeah he is terrible. There is no way Parker is behind him. The 23 targets in 2015 were mostly 2-yard crossing patterns from the 10 on 3rd and goal. I remember each one of them getting my heart rate up like it was yesterday...
TL/DR: I think there are a lot of different ways targets could come for Parker to have a breakout year. I am not saying any specific one will happen, but if Parker is actually refining his routes and playing up to his athleticism, available targets shouldn't be an obstacle to him having a good year and out producing his current price.
/swoon
Throw them both out, I sayflyersfan1981 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:04 am Cooper's career Red Zone Catch % is 40%. Parker's is 39%.
No you can't just look at the numbers but they certainly tell a story. First off, Tannehill and Cutler have career adjusted yards/attempt of 6.68 and 6.69 respectively and in 2015 when they both played at least 15 games they had the same air yards/attempt of 3.8 (13th in the NFL that year) so Tannehill hasn't really been more conservative than Cutler at all, they both take shots down the fieldflashgordon12 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:32 amCutler is waaaay different. He loves throwing it up to big receivers ala Marshall and Alshon. And he's competent with the deep ball. These should fit perfectly with Parker. Tannehill was much more conservative, which explains the interceptions. Can't just look at the numbers when comparing QBsStableOfRBs wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:37 amHow is this QB any different than the one he had before, look at their career numbers, the main difference between Tannehill and Cutler is their interception rates