DeVante Parker

[StableOfRBs]

I've seen a lot of people are high on him because of all the recent news about him coming out of camp and his coaches talking about him earlier in the offseason but I'm not too sure what all the fuss is about.

I'm not gonna argue that he's not athletic since he definitely is, but there's just not enough volume to go around in that passing attack, Landry is the undisputed leader in targets on that team as of right now because he does good work with the target share he gets but if you look at last year, his targets took a big dip when Jay Ajayi started playing well.

Week 5 was Ajayi's first game last year with more than 7 attempts and he averaged 20 attempts per game starting from that game on. Now look at Landry's target numbers for the first 4 weeks compared to when Ajayi became the starter:

Weeks 1-4: 45 targets, 11.3 per game, 180 target 16-game pace
Weeks 5-17: 86 targets, 7.2 per game, 115 target 16-game pace
Landry's 2015 target total: 167

Last year's target spread for the Dolphins:

Landry, 131
Ajayi, 35
Dion Sims, 35
Kenny Stills, 81
Parker, 87
Damien Williams, 32

Then they went out and traded for Julius Thomas, who should be used a fair bit more than Sims. Last year Tannehill got hurt toward the end of the season but was on pace for 479 attempts, 3686 yards and 24 TDs, not exactly numbers that would inspire me to put much stock in his, at best, number 2 receiving option and his, at best, number 4 red zone option (behind Landry, Thomas and Ajayi).

I could see him as a very late round sleeper with mid-WR2 potential but it seems like people are trying to value him as the 1st round player they paid for two seasons ago and I just don't see him having that value.

[wildabeast49]

Devil's advocate here. Look at Landry's red zone numbers and explain how Parker is "at best number 4 red zone option" and mid wr2s that are 24 with even more upside if situation changed are easily worth a first rounder. Also Parker's target share did not drop when Ajayi rose to prominence.

[StableOfRBs]

Devil's advocate here. Look at Landry's red zone numbers and explain how Parker is "at best number 4 red zone option" and mid wr2s that are 24 with even more upside if situation changed are easily worth a first rounder. Also Parker's target share did not drop when Ajayi rose to prominence.

Actually his targets did drop, it's a bit of a small sample size since Parker didn't play much in 2015 and missed the first game in 2016 but in the 3 games he played in before Ajayi was the starter he averaged 7.3 targets per game and averaged 5.4 targets per game for the rest of the season.

And yes last year's RZ targets were more in Parker's favor since he and Landry both led the team with 9 a piece (which is awfully low over a full season) but if you look at 2015's numbers Landry led the team with a much more respectable 23 followed by Jordan Cameron with 16 and finally Parker with another 9. It's not a stretch to think that Landry regresses back to being the RZ target leader, Thomas ends up with 16+ this year, and Ajayi gets 10+ since he had 7 last year in 12 games as a starter (Damien Williams also had 8, so some of his targets could also go to Ajayi)

[Weeman]

I'm a Dolphins fan. I prefer Landry to Parker aswell (gaurenteed vs upside), but I don't think Ajayi is a real bellcow. Most of his production was in 3 games. Toward the end of the year Gase was forcing the run, because he realized Tannehill couldn't get the ball downfield. Real shocker... I don't see the run game hurting the passing, especially since Miami plays from behind most games.
Overall Stills was a TD or a dropped pass, Parker got deep but wasn't getting separation so Tannehills Int chances increases & he rarely throws into tight coverage. Landry was dink & dunk as we all know. But if you watch the games you'll see Parker was raw but improving, he could outleap DBs & be physical after the catch but needed more targets, especially RZ. I honestly don't think Landry is his crutch, if Landry left. I firmly believe Caroo or Ford would be the best/or most productive WR. Tannehill just hasn't had the confidence to throw the ball deep consistently. & really Parker has only flashed on plays, he needs to be dominant & assert himself. I see a WR3 type year very boom or bust. But praying as a fan I'm wrong. Lol

[spotxc]

A young, highly talented first round wr who I could see putting together a line of 70/1080/8 in his third season would be worth his first round value to me.

Last year people swung too high for him, and now they're doing the opposite after not meeting their expectations. Realistically he should be a solid wr this year but ready to rise up the wr ranks fast. He seems serious and improving, which is the biggest thing for him since he holds the talent in spades

[StableOfRBs]

A young, highly talented first round wr who I could see putting together a line of 70/1080/8 in his third season would be worth his first round value to me.

Last year people swung too high for him, and now they're doing the opposite after not meeting their expectations. Realistically he should be a solid wr this year but ready to rise up the wr ranks fast. He seems serious and improving, which is the biggest thing for him since he holds the talent in spades

I don't see him getting over 1000 yards if he's only gonna have 70 catches since averaging 14.5 yards per catch over a full season is very difficult to do and he'd need almost 15.5 Yds/catch for the number you listed above. The 8 TDs could happen but he'd need a lot of those targets to be RZ targets or he'd need to dramatically increase his catch rate (worst on the team last year for RZ targets with 55.6%)

I could see 70/~930/6-7 but don't see much more than that unless he starts to overtake Landry

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Good post OP. I will add some comments/ replies to the points you brought up (since I am pretty sure you were referring to my post in the camp superstar thread).

Miami ran the least amount of plays of any team last year, being under the league average by more than 100 plays. A big reason for that was their atrocious run defense last year. A big reason they went as run-heavy as they did was to keep the defense off the field. With the LB and DL additions, they should have a much better run De this year, which should result in play quantity to be closer to the league average. Based on Gase's history and comments about wanting a more balanced offense, I think that will mostly result in more pass plays. They won't be the Saints, but I am at least expecting a couple more attempts per game.

As for Landry, I think you more highlighted concerns with Landry than with Parker. He has put up numbers on a crazy amount of targets. Part of that is because he is a really good option on the safe short throws, which can help offset a poor run game. Until Ajayi broke out, Miami had a pretty poor run game during Landry's Miami tenure, so if Ajayi continues to produce, I think Miami will find themselves not needing to feed Landry as many targets. I am not sure more pass attempts by the dolphins will equal more targets for Landry by the same factor.

There is also Landry's contract situation. Miami hasn't offered him an extension and they have made a point of hyping up Parker (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt). Reading the tea leaves, I see that as the Dolphins want to see if they really need Landry before they back the truck up for him. I think a big part of that decision will how Parker plays after his first healthy offseason, so I think he will have plenty of opportunities this year.

Thomas is about the same as Sims, and they basically traded an injured LT who just retired for him. I don't see that as a huge investment or promise of use. He should still be Parker's main competition for targets in the red zone. As for Landry in the red zone, yeah he is terrible. There is no way Parker is behind him. The 23 targets in 2015 were mostly 2-yard crossing patterns from the 10 on 3rd and goal. I remember each one of them getting my heart rate up like it was yesterday...

TL/DR: I think there are a lot of different ways targets could come for Parker to have a breakout year. I am not saying any specific one will happen, but if Parker is actually refining his routes and playing up to his athleticism, available targets shouldn't be an obstacle to him having a good year and out producing his current price.

[StableOfRBs]

Good post OP. I will add some comments/ replies to the points you brought up (since I am pretty sure you were referring to my post in the camp superstar thread).

Miami ran the least amount of plays of any team last year, being under the league average by more than 100 plays. A big reason for that was their atrocious run defense last year. A big reason they went as run-heavy as they did was to keep the defense off the field. With the LB and DL additions, they should have a much better run De this year, which should result in play quantity to be closer to the league average. Based on Gase's history and comments about wanting a more balanced offense, I think that will mostly result in more pass plays. They won't be the Saints, but I am at least expecting a couple more attempts per game.

As for Landry, I think you more highlighted concerns with Landry than with Parker. He has put up numbers on a crazy amount of targets. Part of that is because he is a really good option on the safe short throws, which can help offset a poor run game. Until Ajayi broke out, Miami had a pretty poor run game during Landry's Miami tenure, so if Ajayi continues to produce, I think Miami will find themselves not needing to feed Landry as many targets. I am not sure more pass attempts by the dolphins will equal more targets for Landry by the same factor.

There is also Landry's contract situation. Miami hasn't offered him an extension and they have made a point of hyping up Parker (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt). Reading the tea leaves, I see that as the Dolphins want to see if they really need Landry before they back the truck up for him. I think a big part of that decision will how Parker plays after his first healthy offseason, so I think he will have plenty of opportunities this year.

Thomas is about the same as Sims, and they basically traded an injured LT who just retired for him. I don't see that as a huge investment or promise of use. He should still be Parker's main competition for targets in the red zone. As for Landry in the red zone, yeah he is terrible. There is no way Parker is behind him. The 23 targets in 2015 were mostly 2-yard crossing patterns from the 10 on 3rd and goal. I remember each one of them getting my heart rate up like it was yesterday...

TL/DR: I think there are a lot of different ways targets could come for Parker to have a breakout year. I am not saying any specific one will happen, but if Parker is actually refining his routes and playing up to his athleticism, available targets shouldn't be an obstacle to him having a good year and out producing his current price.

You do realize that last year Parker had the worst RZ completion % of anyone on the Dolphins aside from Arian Foster who had 1 target. Parker was 5 for 9 on RZ targets last year and 2 for 9 the year before, last year Landry was 7 for 9, sure Parker is a bigger target but if he's not gonna catch it then why would they throw it to him?

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Good post OP. I will add some comments/ replies to the points you brought up (since I am pretty sure you were referring to my post in the camp superstar thread).

Miami ran the least amount of plays of any team last year, being under the league average by more than 100 plays. A big reason for that was their atrocious run defense last year. A big reason they went as run-heavy as they did was to keep the defense off the field. With the LB and DL additions, they should have a much better run De this year, which should result in play quantity to be closer to the league average. Based on Gase's history and comments about wanting a more balanced offense, I think that will mostly result in more pass plays. They won't be the Saints, but I am at least expecting a couple more attempts per game.

As for Landry, I think you more highlighted concerns with Landry than with Parker. He has put up numbers on a crazy amount of targets. Part of that is because he is a really good option on the safe short throws, which can help offset a poor run game. Until Ajayi broke out, Miami had a pretty poor run game during Landry's Miami tenure, so if Ajayi continues to produce, I think Miami will find themselves not needing to feed Landry as many targets. I am not sure more pass attempts by the dolphins will equal more targets for Landry by the same factor.

There is also Landry's contract situation. Miami hasn't offered him an extension and they have made a point of hyping up Parker (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt). Reading the tea leaves, I see that as the Dolphins want to see if they really need Landry before they back the truck up for him. I think a big part of that decision will how Parker plays after his first healthy offseason, so I think he will have plenty of opportunities this year.

Thomas is about the same as Sims, and they basically traded an injured LT who just retired for him. I don't see that as a huge investment or promise of use. He should still be Parker's main competition for targets in the red zone. As for Landry in the red zone, yeah he is terrible. There is no way Parker is behind him. The 23 targets in 2015 were mostly 2-yard crossing patterns from the 10 on 3rd and goal. I remember each one of them getting my heart rate up like it was yesterday...

TL/DR: I think there are a lot of different ways targets could come for Parker to have a breakout year. I am not saying any specific one will happen, but if Parker is actually refining his routes and playing up to his athleticism, available targets shouldn't be an obstacle to him having a good year and out producing his current price.

You do realize that last year Parker had the worst RZ completion % of anyone on the Dolphins aside from Arian Foster who had 1 target. Parker was 5 for 9 on RZ targets last year and 2 for 9 the year before, last year Landry was 7 for 9, sure Parker is a bigger target but if he's not gonna catch it then why would they throw it to him?

It is a pretty small sample size for Parker, but he is getting used a lot differently in the RZ than Landry. Landry's RZ completion % is a useless stat. the targets are almost never in the endzone. Him catching a 2 yard crossing route at the 15 is not the same as Parker going for a jump ball in the endzone.

[cweds]

I think it's also important to consider that maybe Landry was getting all the RZ targets he did because they didn't have an option like Parker with prototypical RZ threat size. If he shows well in the role, I could see him taking over

[Mastershake]

I've been waiting patiently for Parker to develop because his skills are obvious. I drafted him imas a rookie in dynasty, but have never touched him in redraft.

I'm buying in this year. We can all see the talent, but the dedic a tion has been missing. I don't think these are puff pieces this year. It rings of a true change in his dedication. This man had 700 yards receiving last year and has never done a leg workout?! He is going to be a monster and monsters demand and receive targets. Plain and simple.

[jimmychoi]

This article from three days ago is an interesting read in Parker. http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost. ... pe-mounts/


This from an espn article: "Perplexed by Parker's trouble staying healthy, the sports science-conscious Dolphins began to ask the former first-round pick specific questions about how much water he was drinking every day, what kinds of strength workouts he was doing, what his sleep patterns were. To their shock, the answers to those three specific questions were: not enough, none at all, and inconsistent. It wasn't that Parker was irresponsible. It was that no one had ever taught him the importance of hydration, nutrition, proper rest. He basically needed someone to set up a program for him and check with him throughout the day to make sure it was working. To hand him a water bottle if he forgot to take enough from the cafeteria. Teach him how to do a hamstring curl."

It's amazing he made it that far purely on talent. No strength workouts at all!! Wow

[Plank]

I'm excited to see Parker this year, if the reports are accurate and he has made the adjustments to becoming a professional, .. well, I'm excited to see it.

Landry is a guy anyone should want on their football team, talk about a guy who does the dirty work, .. his blocking, tenacity, desire to win, is second to none. I love him as a football player, and that stuff is contagious .. he is the type of presence in a locker room that makes a difference ..

Ajayi's running style is brutal and is a pure joy to watch for me, sure it might not last in the long run, but I am sure as hell going to enjoy it while it's here .. Pouncey and Tunsil were really pushing people around in those games he blew up, I am hopeful that Pouncey stays healthy ..

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This article from three days ago is an interesting read in Parker. http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost. ... pe-mounts/


This from an espn article: "Perplexed by Parker's trouble staying healthy, the sports science-conscious Dolphins began to ask the former first-round pick specific questions about how much water he was drinking every day, what kinds of strength workouts he was doing, what his sleep patterns were. To their shock, the answers to those three specific questions were: not enough, none at all, and inconsistent. It wasn't that Parker was irresponsible. It was that no one had ever taught him the importance of hydration, nutrition, proper rest. He basically needed someone to set up a program for him and check with him throughout the day to make sure it was working. To hand him a water bottle if he forgot to take enough from the cafeteria. Teach him how to do a hamstring curl."

It's amazing he made it that far purely on talent. No strength workouts at all!! Wow

Jesus.

[DJB]

Anyone else been buying shares of him everywhere you can? I was buying before Cutler came in and now his price seems to have gone up.