Sophomore fever!

[Dookmarriot]

Just finished a rookie auction draft last night, and as I am wont to do I smugly thought to myself as my leaguemates destroyed their cap situations chasing the shiny new toys: "Look at those fools - fully in the grip of Rookie Fever!"

Thing is, I have my own blind spot that keeps tripping me up - sophomore fever. That player who didn't light it up in their rookie year, but showed enough promise at the pro level that I get amped that they're going to "bust out" with hopefully a cheaper price tag.

Sound theory, but I often whiff which either calls into question the concept or my talent evaluation skills. DGB, Ladarius, Jerrick McKinnon and Chris Conley are some of my bigger swings and misses. Which probably doesn't bode well for my Derrick Henry acquisitions.

Does this horrible fantasy football disease affect anyone else? Or is it just me?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I fell for Agholor.

Chris Conley is not a swing and miss yet.

[Valhalla]

As I have said numerous times on this forum, sophomore freak athlete hype is as real and reliable as rookie hype. It's always a good idea to draft the freak athletes in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of drafts because they almost always rise in pick value heading into their 2nd year, regardless of their rookie production. Lots of hype on their athleticism for months on end before the next rookie draft spikes their value.
Guys that could be had past the 1st round their rookie years, didn't do much, but being freak athletes in some category or another pushed their value at one time to be worth a random first or more: Justin Hunter, Lockett, Moncrief (I don't like him yet), Patterson, Britt, Quick, Marquess Wilson, Reggie Williams, Benn, DHB, Jenkins, Baldwin...sort of jumped around there through history. Some of these guys were likely common late firsts, but quite often they could be had for 2nd-3rd rounders in their rookie drafts, did little to be in awe of, and then became worth a 1st or more going into year 2.

[Dookmarriot]

As I have said numerous times on this forum, sophomore freak athlete hype is as real and reliable as rookie hype. It's always a good idea to draft the freak athletes in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of drafts because they almost always rise in pick value heading into their 2nd year, regardless of their rookie production. Lots of hype on their athleticism for months on end before the next rookie draft spikes their value.
Guys that could be had past the 1st round their rookie years, didn't do much, but being freak athletes in some category or another pushed their value at one time to be worth a random first or more: Justin Hunter, Lockett, Moncrief (I don't like him yet), Patterson, Britt, Quick, Marquess Wilson, Reggie Williams, Benn, DHB, Jenkins, Baldwin...sort of jumped around there through history. Some of these guys were likely common late firsts, but quite often they could be had for 2nd-3rd rounders in their rookie drafts, did little to be in awe of, and then became worth a 1st or more going into year 2.

Nailed it. I fell for Hunter, Wilson and Moncrief too.

Conley might not be a bust, DD, but I don't like his odds given that he's a favourite of mine.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Idk, I mean hes improved each year, he's a starter with a pretty good chance to be his teams WR1 in year 3. I would have signed up for that all day when I drafted him. You were expecting more?

[dlf4lyfe]

I definitely have sophomore fever. It sometimes feels like they are prime buy-low breakout candidates. I am even targeting some right now.

Did you end up buying anyone in your rookie auction draft?

[Dookmarriot]

Idk, I mean hes improved each year, he's a starter with a pretty good chance to be his teams WR1 in year 3. I would have signed up for that all day when I drafted him. You were expecting more?

Forget I mentioned him. I certainly hope he hits because I have enough shares. But right now he's an extremely likeable Moncrief in a worse offense. I certainly like him more than Hill, though.

[Dookmarriot]

I definitely have sophomore fever. It sometimes feels like they are prime buy-low breakout candidates. I am even targeting some right now.

Did you end up buying anyone in your rookie auction draft?

I had a lot of money and a need at running back (I lost both Gurley and Ajayi in an expansion draft, leaving me with just Freeman and Shady). But the prices were nuts...we have a $200 cap and Fournette went for $50. McCaffery, Mixon, Cook and Lynch (in the pool as a free agent) all went for over $30. I did land Perine for $18 and Foreman for $13. Happy for the value...managing the cap well is essential.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Idk, I mean hes improved each year, he's a starter with a pretty good chance to be his teams WR1 in year 3. I would have signed up for that all day when I drafted him. You were expecting more?

Forget I mentioned him. I certainly hope he hits because I have enough shares. But right now he's an extremely likeable Moncrief in a worse offense. I certainly like him more than Hill, though.

mentioned who?

[skip]

I don't think there is a set time frame for this problem. Any overhyped player tends to remain overhyped when their "athleticism" or metrics meets some kind of arbitrary threshold. There is no problem with some patience but there is also a point where it's time to give up on upside.

[Tsunami]

This is a good year for sophomore fever, if you ask me. Most of last year's top rookies didn't do much year 1, and didn't hold their value. Boyd, Fuller, Doctson, Dixon, and especially Carroo and Treadwell can be had for very little. I'm not someone who gives up on "talent" so quickly. That said, the longer it takes the less likely they are going to blow up. There are far more busts than comeback stories.

[Valhalla]

This is a good year for sophomore fever, if you ask me. Most of last year's top rookies didn't do much year 1, and didn't hold their value. Boyd, Fuller, Doctson, Dixon, and especially Carroo and Treadwell can be had for very little. I'm not someone who gives up on "talent" so quickly. That said, the longer it takes the less likely they are going to blow up. There are far more busts than comeback stories.

Seems like those 1st round WRs are given the opposite of sophomore fever to me. Every one of them dropped in value after their poor performances. Coleman retained some value but still dropped.
In the past, guys like Justin Hunter were drafted in the 2nd to 3rd, did little, and then were worth a first heading into year 2.

[kamihamster]

So the moral of the story is buy 1st round WRs their sophomore year and sell 2nd/3rd WRs their sophomore year. It's like an ATM if you do it right! If only I was smart enough to listen.

[Space Cowboy]

I have a sophomore fetish of my own!

Just be careful not to overvalue......last offseason I targeted Karlos Williams and Devin Funchess. Glad I never went through with those! Although I did get Karlos via waivers lol

[dlf4lyfe]

I did land Perine for $18 and Foreman for $13. Happy for the value...managing the cap well is essential.

Nice dude. Those are the two value RBs I am eyeing myself!