BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby onetwothree » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:19 pm

Keep in mind if you trade down that you don't have to get equal value (or win the trade). Get enough that you stay within the tier of players you're comfortable but can still extract an extra pick somewhere. No need to be greedy and try to get an extra 1st.

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby TTHTD » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:26 am

Valhalla wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:05 pm
2. Are you really sure he won't be there at 2.07? I'd still be passing on him at that point. If you really want him and believe, I bet he falls to 2.07 no problem.
Been in 3 drafts, I've never seen him drop below the 17th pick. His most common spot in rookie drafts seems to be an early 2nd. He went 1.12 in one of my leagues. There's always someone more willing to bet on a prove player over a rookie. Not everyone values youth over vets.

Personally I'd take a chance on him around 2.02-2.04ish.

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:18 am

Pretty funny for everyone saying Lynch is worth a 3rd. I've rarely seen him fall past 2.05-2.06 in rookie drafts. I think that if you believe he returns to form and is an RB1 this season (not that far-fetched given a RB of his caliber of talent playing with a top-5 offensive line and unit), 1.07 is not too early. You'll never sell him for anything, but assuming he stays healthy and produces, Lynch is 100% worth the 1.07 to a contending team. That said, I have two suggestions:

1. If you really want Lynch, try to gauge the other owners in your league. If you don't believe anyone will draft him in the 1st, try to trade down a few spots and grab him at 1.12 or 2.01.
2. Given your RB depth already, I'd instead try to trade the 1.07 to upgrade at QB or TE.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby skip » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:13 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:18 am Pretty funny for everyone saying Lynch is worth a 3rd. I've rarely seen him fall past 2.05-2.06 in rookie drafts. I think that if you believe he returns to form and is an RB1 this season (not that far-fetched given a RB of his caliber of talent playing with a top-5 offensive line and unit), 1.07 is not too early. You'll never sell him for anything
You're a bit all over the place here... You say it's funny we think he's worth a 3rd, your observation is he's going at or before 2.05/2.06, to a contender he's worth 1.07, but you can't trade him for anything.

So that tells me that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. He's worth a 3rd if you are in the camp (like myself) who believes that it is very unlikely we see a return to form or an RB1 season.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:34 pm

skip wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:13 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:18 am Pretty funny for everyone saying Lynch is worth a 3rd. I've rarely seen him fall past 2.05-2.06 in rookie drafts. I think that if you believe he returns to form and is an RB1 this season (not that far-fetched given a RB of his caliber of talent playing with a top-5 offensive line and unit), 1.07 is not too early. You'll never sell him for anything
You're a bit all over the place here... You say it's funny we think he's worth a 3rd, your observation is he's going at or before 2.05/2.06, to a contender he's worth 1.07, but you can't trade him for anything.

So that tells me that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. He's worth a 3rd if you are in the camp (like myself) who believes that it is very unlikely we see a return to form or an RB1 season.
Sorry, I didn't phrase my post very well. Hazards of typing quickly while at work lol. Allow me to elaborate:

A lot of online Twitter and DLF forum polls/posts would suggest that Lynch's value is a 3rd round rookie pick. However, in rookies drafts for my leagues and that of friends, Lynch has generally not fallen past the early or mid 2nd round. I agree that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. However, while Lynch's value is likely to fall even if he produces this year, he is worth the 1.07 to a contending team regardless of his guaranteed decline in trade value if you believe that he still has the talent to be a fantasy RB1 in the short term.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby _yeti » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:35 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:34 pm A lot of online Twitter and DLF forum polls/posts would suggest that Lynch's value is a 3rd round rookie pick. However, in rookies drafts for my leagues and that of friends, Lynch has generally not fallen past the early or mid 2nd round.
This is easily explained. His value to the majority of owners is 3rd. The minority value him higher so they draft him higher. If 9 out of 10 value him at a 3rd but one guy takes him in the 1st or 2nd the consensus of what most ppl would pay is still 3rd though you may need to pay more to be the guy to take him
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby Goddard » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:37 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:34 pm
Sorry, I didn't phrase my post very well. Hazards of typing quickly while at work lol. Allow me to elaborate:

A lot of online Twitter and DLF forum polls/posts would suggest that Lynch's value is a 3rd round rookie pick. However, in rookies drafts for my leagues and that of friends, Lynch has generally not fallen past the early or mid 2nd round. I agree that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. However, while Lynch's value is likely to fall even if he produces this year, he is worth the 1.07 to a contending team regardless of his guaranteed decline in trade value if you believe that he still has the talent to be a fantasy RB1 in the short term.
[/quote]

It only takes one owner to take him early in a draft, but it doesn't mean he's worth it. And yes, I'd gladly pay a 1st or 2nd round pick for him if I believed he was going to put up RB1 numbers. I just don't see that happening and would prefer to take my chances with a rookie.

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby jcc6fd » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:20 pm

So the argument now is that every league has only one owner who likes him enough to draft him late first/early second but is simply unaware of how the rest of his league values Lynch? Come on guys. He's worth an early 2nd.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby MichaelScarn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:33 pm

He's going to be in my draft as well. The owner of 1.07 in my league is hoping to land him, the way some of the guys in my league view RBs he might even go at 5. I wouldn't take him over Howard, but I can understand a contender taking him.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby dlf4lyfe » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:53 pm

He'll go in the 1st round in my draft as well and ours is a combined draft of rookies & vets (10 teams/10 keepers). Definitely can understand a contender taking him instead of waiting on a rookie all year. Too risky imo, plus he'll probably just go back into retirement at years end, although he does have some nice incentives for year 2 in that contract.

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby Seventy5 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:01 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:34 pm
skip wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:13 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:18 am Pretty funny for everyone saying Lynch is worth a 3rd. I've rarely seen him fall past 2.05-2.06 in rookie drafts. I think that if you believe he returns to form and is an RB1 this season (not that far-fetched given a RB of his caliber of talent playing with a top-5 offensive line and unit), 1.07 is not too early. You'll never sell him for anything
You're a bit all over the place here... You say it's funny we think he's worth a 3rd, your observation is he's going at or before 2.05/2.06, to a contender he's worth 1.07, but you can't trade him for anything.

So that tells me that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. He's worth a 3rd if you are in the camp (like myself) who believes that it is very unlikely we see a return to form or an RB1 season.
Sorry, I didn't phrase my post very well. Hazards of typing quickly while at work lol. Allow me to elaborate:

A lot of online Twitter and DLF forum polls/posts would suggest that Lynch's value is a 3rd round rookie pick. However, in rookies drafts for my leagues and that of friends, Lynch has generally not fallen past the early or mid 2nd round. I agree that his value is highly volatile from owner to owner. However, while Lynch's value is likely to fall even if he produces this year, he is worth the 1.07 to a contending team regardless of his guaranteed decline in trade value if you believe that he still has the talent to be a fantasy RB1 in the short term.
I think this can be summed up by saying Lynch's potential production value might be worth a mid-late 1st (to contenders only), but his roster/trade value is currently in the mid 2nd-early 3rd range.

I think Lynch is essentially a riskier Jordy Nelson-like asset right now; if he hits, he'll give you top 10-15 positional production for a year or two at a discounted cost (relative to other top 10 dynasty assets at their respective positions). If he provides that (which is not crazy to think), then he is 'worth' a mid-late 1st to a contender who is looking win. He is unlikely, however, to be worth a mid-late 1st in terms of market value - especially to rebuilders or those who're more concerned with roster construction/value or exit costs. Lynch isn't a dynasty asset who is likely to gain a ton of value, but that doesn't mean he can't provide value (production value, increased chances of winning a champion$hip). It just comes down what you value more: roster/market value, or potential production value.

Me personally, there are 11-14 rookies I would draft ahead of Lynch regardless of my roster right now. Once we get into Zay/Samuel/Foreman/etc range, I think Lynch is fair game. I think the odds of Lynch providing production value for 1-2 years are higher than the odds of some of Mack/Godwin/Williams/Henderson/Gallman/ArDarius/etc developing and ever offering consistent (year to year) production value.

*My biggest concern is whether this is just Oakland spending a few million to appease its hometown fans for two years before moving to Vegas or not. Or rather how much of it is that, and how much of it has to do with Lynch still being an effective starter (which we will find out soon). With that said, Lynch at 70-80% would still be a useful fantasy asset in this offense.
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby Goddard » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:10 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:20 pm So the argument now is that every league has only one owner who likes him enough to draft him late first/early second but is simply unaware of how the rest of his league values Lynch? Come on guys. He's worth an early 2nd.
No, I said it only takes one. So now he's worth an early 2nd instead of the 1.07? Every player is obviously worth whatever an owner thinks he's worth. Not sure why I can't say he's worth a 3rd at best.

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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby Jimi Hendrix » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:37 pm

:doh: Lynch went with the 4.01 in DLF Charter so definitely not impossible to get Lynch in the 3rd...........just saying
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby jcc6fd » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:44 pm

Goddard wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:10 pm
jcc6fd wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:20 pm So the argument now is that every league has only one owner who likes him enough to draft him late first/early second but is simply unaware of how the rest of his league values Lynch? Come on guys. He's worth an early 2nd.
No, I said it only takes one. So now he's worth an early 2nd instead of the 1.07? Every player is obviously worth whatever an owner thinks he's worth. Not sure why I can't say he's worth a 3rd at best.
I've always said he was worth an early second in the consensus. You can say that you'd spend no more than a 3rd on him, but that's not helping someone who is trying to land him.

Don't pretend you and yeti weren't implying that the majority of people think he's worth a third. Yeti specifically said so. My point is that the majority actually disagree with you
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Re: BEASTMODE at 1.07?!

Postby Goddard » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:48 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:44 pm
Goddard wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:10 pm
jcc6fd wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:20 pm So the argument now is that every league has only one owner who likes him enough to draft him late first/early second but is simply unaware of how the rest of his league values Lynch? Come on guys. He's worth an early 2nd.
No, I said it only takes one. So now he's worth an early 2nd instead of the 1.07? Every player is obviously worth whatever an owner thinks he's worth. Not sure why I can't say he's worth a 3rd at best.
I've always said he was worth an early second in the consensus. You can say that you'd spend no more than a 3rd on him, but that's not helping someone who is trying to land him.

Don't pretend you and yeti weren't implying that the majority of people think he's worth a third. Yeti specifically said so. My point is that the majority actually disagree with you
I don't really know what the majority think and don't really care. I was responding to, I think Ditka, who posted that the majority of twitter and DLF polls suggest that he's worth a 3rd, and yet he's going much earlier. So I'm saying that it only takes one owner in a league to take him early, even if the majority think he's not worth that.


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