QB-A vs QB-B Who would you take?

[pierson242]

Player A is 2 years older than Player B, yet you are excluding Player A's rookie year in some of your stats and including Player B's rookie year in all his stats. This is bad cherry picking.

I'm sorry nobody is biting on your Bortles trade bait in your leagues. I don't think this thread will help, though.

I did not come up with it. It was a past two year window argument!

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

The same stats can be used to argue both sides of any argument. I find these comparisons interesting in highlighting certain attributes or trends, but these pure stat comparisons mean very little when it comes to predictive analysis.

[Reljac]

I did not come up with it. It was a past two year window argument!

2-yr window was cherry-pick chosen because the 1yr window looks like:

Jameis Winston 567 attempts 4,090yds 28 TDs 61% completion Rating 86.1
vs.
Blake Bortles 625 Attempts 3,905yds 23 TDs 59% completion Rating 78.8



How about instead you compare Age 22 Seasons between the two:
Jameis Winston 567 attempts 4,090yds 28 TDs 61% completion Rating 86.1
vs.
Blake Bortles 475 Attempts 2,908yds 11 TDs 59% completion Rating 69.5

[pierson242]

I did not come up with it. It was a past two year window argument!

2-yr window was cherry-pick chosen because the 1yr window looks like:

Jameis Winston 567 attempts 4,090yds 28 TDs 61% completion Rating 86.1
vs.
Blake Bortles 625 Attempts 3,905yds 23 TDs 59% completion Rating 78.8



How about instead you compare Age 22 Seasons between the two:
Jameis Winston 567 attempts 4,090yds 28 TDs 61% completion Rating 86.1
vs.
Blake Bortles 475 Attempts 2,908yds 11 TDs 59% completion Rating 69.5

Again just heard it on a podcast and carried it to here for people to aee

[sugbear65]

Player A= 0 career rushing yards, 0.0 career ypc, 0 career rushing tds, 0 career recieving Yds, 0 career receptions, 0 career rec tds

Player B= 7260 career rushing yards, 5.5 career ypc, 43 career rushing tds, 2457 career recieving Yds, 285 career receptions, 20 career rec tds

And despite the overwhelming statistical advantage, call me crazy for taking Player A (L. Fournette) over player B (J. Charles)

[Sterling Archer]

Player A is 2 years older than Player B, yet you are excluding Player A's rookie year in some of your stats and including Player B's rookie year in all his stats. This is bad cherry picking.

I'm sorry nobody is biting on your Bortles trade bait in your leagues. I don't think this thread will help, though.

Jeez rough crowd I'm in way implying Bortles is better I heard it on a podcast and thought it was interesting!

Sorry, I just think a lot of people here don't really find cherry picking stats aimed at misleading to be that interesting. It's kind of like a cheap magic trick. The sleight of hand might fool you for a second, but in the end are you left impressed or interested? Just like a cheap trick, upon closer inspection the whole thing falls apart.

Was the podcast trying to imply Bortles and Winston are in any way comparable? If so, I'd ditch that podcast immediately if I was you.

[pierson242]

Looks like I will never be passing on any interesting info I heard!

[clarion contrarion]

all the hate on the thread or snark on the thread aside if you have both guys & sat on bortles at his current ADP it could pay off quite nicely if he becomes more efficient in a run based offense that isn't trailing all the time. He has been forced through some bad defense and his own shortcomings to be playing from behind a ton , the book may not be completely written yet . Many IFs apply
if he takes care of the football better
if fournette keeps an extra guy in the box and he sees single coverage on the outside guys
if his wr stay healthy
if the oline improves
for the cost and the fact he has piled up decent fantasy # much of the time he is a risk worth taking .
2 top 10 seasons is 2 top 10 seasons if you have a top 10 qb as your qb 2 I would say that is a good thing imho.
at least start him against the titans as last 3 games he has 984 yards- 9tds and no picks plus a rec TD ! and indy 1056 yards 7 tds no picks+ 2 rushing tds in last 4 tilts.

[Sterling Archer]

all the hate on the thread or snark on the thread aside if you have both guys & sat on bortles at his current ADP it could pay off quite nicely if he becomes more efficient in a run based offense that isn't trailing all the time. He has been forced through some bad defense and his own shortcomings to be playing from behind a ton , the book may not be completely written yet . Many IFs apply
if he takes care of the football better
if fournette keeps an extra guy in the box and he sees single coverage on the outside guys
if his wr stay healthy
if the oline improves
for the cost and the fact he has piled up decent fantasy # much of the time he is a risk worth taking .
2 top 10 seasons is 2 top 10 seasons if you have a top 10 qb as your qb 2 I would say that is a good thing imho.
at least start him against the titans as last 3 games he has 984 yards- 9tds and no picks plus a rec TD ! and indy 1056 yards 7 tds no picks+ 2 rushing tds in last 4 tilts.

I'm not saying Bortles is garbage. I don't think anyone is saying he can't turn things around. The point is simply that cherry picking statistics to mislead is just a cheap trick. Bortles is 2 years older than Winston, yet these stats exclude Bortles' rookie year and include Winston's rookie year. So we're comparing Winston's age 21 and 22 seasons to Bortles' age 23 and 24 seasons. That's not a good comp. Why aren't we comparing their first two years in the league? It would make more sense, but it doesn't support this obviously misleading narrative.

But back to just Bortles, I'd be content to have him as my QB2 for sure. However, I wouldn't be that excited about 2017 for him. First of all, yes, he finished around QB9 last year (different scoring systems will vary a spot or two), but he ranked 3rd in pass attempts. Winston finished around QB11 last year, and ranked 11th in pass attempts. To give credit where credit is due, Bortles did finish QB4 while ranking 6th in PA in 2015... but it took a bizarre ratio of 35 passing TDs to only 3 RB rushing TDs. Sorry, but I'll be shocked if that ever happens again. That kind of ratio is just wacky.

So looking ahead, JAX seems intent on decreasing overall passing attempts and will likely pound it at the goal line. In 2015, Bortles had 12 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs from inside the opponents' 5 yard line. Last year he had 8 and 2. To me, Bortles' realistic upside going forward is 2016 Derek Carr. If he can dedicate himself to the game and take what the defense gives him, this could be a good offense. But leaning on him for 600+ PA is not going to be a recipe for success for them, which is going to limit his upside. Thus, the drafting of Fournette.

[Reljac]

So looking ahead, JAX seems intent on decreasing overall passing attempts and will likely pound it at the goal line. In 2015, Bortles had 12 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs from inside the opponents' 5 yard line. Last year he had 8 and 2. To me, Bortles' realistic upside going forward is 2016 Derek Carr. If he can dedicate himself to the game and take what the defense gives him, this could be a good offense. But leaning on him for 600+ PA is not going to be a recipe for success for them, which is going to limit his upside. Thus, the drafting of Fournette.

Nice stats and info in your write up. Matches my perception. Bortles will need to do more with less going forward. And I agree, no one here is saying Bortles is garbage, but the hide the name stat comparison was moreso a podcast trick to have something to talk about moreso than useful information.