Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

[StableOfRBs]

So, no.

Not this at all.

it is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

This is the bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis level of assessment, sure, but for people who know perrine this is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

It's a question of talent vs. talent.

You might think i mean SP's talent vs DF's talent. I don't.

I mean Perrine's pre ankle surgery talent vs his post ankle surgery talent.

Perrine's position, far down on most folks' boards, is the product of their assessment of mostly his final year of college play. He was slow, indecisive and stiff. He also was entirely unrecovered from ankle surgery between his sophomore and junior years.

The pre ankle injury Perrine is unquestionably more talented than DF and is stratospherically more talented than the post injury Perrine that most NFL teams and nearly all fantasy players have based their comparisons on.

The issue isn't perrine's situation--its how much of a gamble returning to form will be. There is absolutely a chance he will regain it--in which case his current ADP will be theft. There is absolutely a risk he won't heal beyond what we saw last year--in which case his worth will tumble far below even a DF who doesn't supplant Miller.

So the issue with Perrine is gambling that he (as he has reported) is finally healthy, can remain so, and that the health will translate into a return to prior form.

His lowest ADP this offseason was the 2.01 in April and it's been going up, in July rookie drafts he's been going at the 1.08, so no, he isn't far down on most folks' boards. (D'onta Foreman is going at the 2.05 and has been dropping)

Both backs went to teams that already have a starter on the roster, regardless of whether you think one is easier to supplant than the other, and both have produced previously when given a starter's workload but I'm paying a mid-2nd price for one and a mid-1st price for the other and you're telling me the more expensive of the two is the one I'm gambling on 'returning to form'? No thanks.

[Mephistopheles]

What everyone has said, situation. Perine WILL provide immediate production in 2017, probably the most of his career. He will then increase a great deal in trade value next offseason as people chase the production.

With that being said, in my (IDP) league:
Perine went 1.6
Foreman (to me, traded back in for Foreman) at 3.8

Two round disparity! Couldn't believe Foreman went that late.

Thank you for posting these results. This should kill all this talk on this forum about Foreman being overvalued or Perine being undervalued that's insane with this type of disparity. I've consistently said Foreman is one of the drafts best values if these values are consistent and have been adamant about that.

Here is 1 expert mock draft done pre draft: http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/dynasty-rook ... vid=1EffAG

Foreman is the 5th RB going 1.10, no Perine in the first.

Here is another that has him as the 6th RB right below Kamara but still before Perine and he goes at 2.03 here: http://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2017- ... nfl-draft/

Here is another with Foreman as the 6th RB behind Kamara again but goes at 1.12 here with Perine mid 2nd round again: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fantas ... draft/amp/


All these were done leading up tp the draft when nearly all information was available. I'm not saying nobody ranked Perine higher then Foreman, or that situation doesn't matter because it does, but I'm not moving guys a full 2 rounds apart due to location. For me this isn't an indictment on Perine at all, because both are very good. It's more about how far their values have shifted in a short time and not due to talent.

These were all pre-draft items, though.

I did several drafts and mocks right after (within 2-3 weeks) the draft and saw similar results.

My first draft is a devy draft where Perine was already rostered. Foreman went #3 behind C. Davis and Ross, and ahead of Hunt, Z. Jones, Ja. Williams, and Mack, all of whom are currently being drafted ahead or just behind him.

Second one, Foreman went 15, Perine went 18.

In others, Foreman went 14-17, Perine 15-19.

Then....Foreman was reported as being "out of shape" for the rookie mini camp and Perine reportedly looked a lot slimmer and quicker, with better hands than he did at OU or the combine.

Looking at my rookie draft spreadsheets, that was the tipping point where Perine shot up boards and Foreman went way down. I even moved Perine up from my #17 to my #12 rookie and Foreman down from #15 to #20 on my board after that.

[Goirish374]

so no, he isn't far down on most folks' boards

Relative to his talent, yes, he is.

and you're telling me the more expensive of the two is the one I'm gambling on 'returning to form'? No thanks.

Good! I want fewer people interested in acquiring him so that he is easier for me to acquire.

[StableOfRBs]

so no, he isn't far down on most folks' boards

Relative to his talent, yes, he is.

and you're telling me the more expensive of the two is the one I'm gambling on 'returning to form'? No thanks.

Good! I want fewer people interested in acquiring him so that he is easier for me to acquire.

So basically you think he has the talent to be the #1 overall pick, correct?

[seahawks506]

Do we have ADP's to go off of or are we just throwing around anecdotal evidence? I've seen both players go higher and lower than I'd expect in individual drafts. Personally I expected Perine to be late 1st and Foreman to be early-mid 2nd.

[StableOfRBs]

Do we have ADP's to go off of or are we just throwing around anecdotal evidence? I've seen both players go higher and lower than I'd expect in individual drafts. Personally I expected Perine to be late 1st and Foreman to be early-mid 2nd.

the 1.08 for Perine and 2.05 for Foreman I mentioned are off of the Mizelle site for rookie drafts in July, nothin anecdotal about it

[Friction]

I am a huge Ou fan and big fan of Samaje, but even I was surprised at the GroupThink on him. i like his talent and acknowledge his situation (though in PPR leagues he is going to be TD dependent and rarely are people mentioning that). Seeing him go 1.07, 1.06 is something I would have never thought possible, even immediately after the NFL draft. At that point I thought, "his situation very well could push him towards the back end of the first, maybe 1.10 range. Prior to that I feel he was more in the early to mid second range, so it is not like that is a huge jump in theory. I know once you start putting names down a big group of players could be argued from 1.07/.08 on, but I really thought it would be Foreman, Hunt, Perine, Zay, among others all over the place depending on the person. I felt the Same way with Sterling Shepard last year. I was arguing he was a late first rd talent in rookie drafts almost until mid-college season, then he suddenly is 1.05 almost consensus, albeit in a week rookie class. Situation (perceived or not)+ GroupThink are the biggest ones. Why I love seeing sleepers of mine get little love on the forums and analyst rankings.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So, no.

Not this at all.

it is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

This is the bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis level of assessment, sure, but for people who know perrine this is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

It's a question of talent vs. talent.

You might think i mean SP's talent vs DF's talent. I don't.

I mean Perrine's pre ankle surgery talent vs his post ankle surgery talent.

Perrine's position, far down on most folks' boards, is the product of their assessment of mostly his final year of college play. He was slow, indecisive and stiff. He also was entirely unrecovered from ankle surgery between his sophomore and junior years.

The pre ankle injury Perrine is unquestionably more talented than DF and is stratospherically more talented than the post injury Perrine that most NFL teams and nearly all fantasy players have based their comparisons on.

The issue isn't perrine's situation--its how much of a gamble returning to form will be. There is absolutely a chance he will regain it--in which case his current ADP will be theft. There is absolutely a risk he won't heal beyond what we saw last year--in which case his worth will tumble far below even a DF who doesn't supplant Miller.

So the issue with Perrine is gambling that he (as he has reported) is finally healthy, can remain so, and that the health will translate into a return to prior form.

Perine regressed in each of his collegiate seasons. Foreman progressed in each of his 3 seasons. Aside from the bench press, Perine is less athletic overall than Foreman. Foreman is faster, more agile, more productive. Foreman was the higher draft pick. I think Foreman's tape is better and apparently so do NFL scouts. Foreman's best college season was better (at least in terms of overall yards) than Perine's best. I remember many saying back in 2015 "but Mike Davis was soooo good in 2013." Where has that kind of logic gotten them? "If they can return to pre-injury form." A big part of being in the NFL is being able to adequately play through injuries. If you're going to turn into a turd whenever you're less than 100% (see: Rawls) then your days are numbered. There's virtually nothing you can point at to say that right now Perine is more talented than Foreman, so to proclaim the talent vs situation label as "bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis" is ridiculous. Basing your argument around returning to some past mythical talent level from 3 years ago is better than using all other available evidence?

[DinoDynasty]

My draft concluded today. I took Foreman at 2.6, he was the 11th running back off the board.

Davis
Fournette
Mixon
MCC
Cook
Perine (1.6)
M Williams
Howard
Marlon Mack (yea... idk either)
Ross
Hunt
Kamara
Joe Williams
Njoku
Engram
Jamaal Williams
Foreman (2.6)
JuJu

[seahawks506]

Do we have ADP's to go off of or are we just throwing around anecdotal evidence? I've seen both players go higher and lower than I'd expect in individual drafts. Personally I expected Perine to be late 1st and Foreman to be early-mid 2nd.

the 1.08 for Perine and 2.05 for Foreman I mentioned are off of the Mizelle site for rookie drafts in July, nothin anecdotal about it

I mean, in June it was 1.9 vs 2.3, and given the sample sizes I don't know if the 1 or 2 spot change in July is really significant. Like I said, late 1st vs early-mid 2nd- is that what we're discussing? This was a deep draft and also there's a few blue-chip TE's sandwiched in between. Also in leagues with less knowledgeable owners I wouldn't be surprised to see Perine go way ahead of Foreman due to more immediate payoff.

[Mephistopheles]

My draft concluded today. I took Foreman at 2.6, he was the 11th running back off the board.

Davis
Fournette
Mixon
MCC
Cook
Perine (1.6)
M Williams
Howard
Marlon Mack (yea... idk either)
Ross
Hunt
Kamara
Joe Williams
Njoku
Engram
Jamaal Williams
Foreman (2.6)
JuJu

Is this your sig league with 1.5 PPR for TE?

Mack and Joe Williams ahead of Njoku and Engram, plus Jamaal Williams ahead of Foreman and Juju?

[DinoDynasty]

My draft concluded today. I took Foreman at 2.6, he was the 11th running back off the board.

Davis
Fournette
Mixon
MCC
Cook
Perine (1.6)
M Williams
Howard
Marlon Mack (yea... idk either)
Ross
Hunt
Kamara
Joe Williams
Njoku
Engram
Jamaal Williams
Foreman (2.6)
JuJu

Is this your sig league with 1.5 PPR for TE?

Mack and Joe Williams ahead of Njoku and Engram, plus Jamaal Williams ahead of Foreman and Juju?

No team 1 in sig. I took Njoku, Foreman, and JuJu because BPA...

The guy who drafted Mack just took over an orphan and is rebuilding, clearly 2 years out at minimum, "but needed to address his hole at running back"
The guy who drafted Williams surprised me too given he's one of the more knowledgeable players... i thought.

[Goirish374]

Perine regressed in each of his collegiate seasons.

That's relevant if you believe SP became less talented in each of his collegiate seasons.

to proclaim the talent vs situation label as "bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis" is ridiculous.

hardly. to label the drafting of SP ahead of DF as talent vs situation is exactly that.

you seem to think i'm either possessed of the desire or under the obligation to convince you of the value or talent of SP.

neither is the case.

The OP asked the question: why are people drafting SP ahead of DF.

i'm addressing that question. people familiar with SP feel they have a shot at mid 1st value for late 1st prices. they presumably understand the risk inherent in that proposition.

im not here to convert anyone or tell them they shouldn't be dropping trou over DF. you should feel free to do so.

[themburns]

I know this forum is in love with Foreman, but damn. He was drafted some 24 picks ahead of Perine, in the late 3rd. It's not like that's a gap in tiers. Could have just as easily been a team reaching on a guy with measurables who has only one good year of production. Three times more carries last year than in his first two years combined, and it wasn't like there was someone superior at the position holding him back. Charlie Strong, in an attempt to save his job featured Foreman, and made him look good. And even then, he still only caught 7 passes in the whole year. (Which I think is very sketchy for any kind of "three down back") It's much more likely, if you ask me, that last year was the aberration.

[ninotoreS]

So, no.

Not this at all.

it is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

This is the bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis level of assessment, sure, but for people who know perrine this is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

It's a question of talent vs. talent.

You might think i mean SP's talent vs DF's talent. I don't.

I mean Perrine's pre ankle surgery talent vs his post ankle surgery talent.

Perrine's position, far down on most folks' boards, is the product of their assessment of mostly his final year of college play. He was slow, indecisive and stiff. He also was entirely unrecovered from ankle surgery between his sophomore and junior years.

The pre ankle injury Perrine is unquestionably more talented than DF and is stratospherically more talented than the post injury Perrine that most NFL teams and nearly all fantasy players have based their comparisons on.

The issue isn't perrine's situation--its how much of a gamble returning to form will be. There is absolutely a chance he will regain it--in which case his current ADP will be theft. There is absolutely a risk he won't heal beyond what we saw last year--in which case his worth will tumble far below even a DF who doesn't supplant Miller.

So the issue with Perrine is gambling that he (as he has reported) is finally healthy, can remain so, and that the health will translate into a return to prior form.

This is frustratingly half sh*t-post, half good post.

You're not wrong to point out that Perine was a visibly different player as an underclassman, and sure, that guy could reemerge (he'll need to drop some weight). It's possible. Explaining this is the good part of your post.

The garbage part of your post is your obnoxious assertion that this notion is 100% the reason Perine is (apparently?) higher in ADP relative to Foreman. No, bud, the primary reason Perine is being drafted ahead of Foreman is indeed situation/opportunity. Get real, please. As should go without saying, situation/opportunity is always a huge impact on ADP, because it's obvious to see and requires little to no research. And there is no question at all that Perine's perceived opportunity is much greater than Foreman's right now, since most people seem to believe Miller has his job cemented in Houston.