Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

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Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Shcritters » Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:57 am

There is a player comparison thread for Perine vs Foreman, but the last entry was from late April. What I am wondering is why Foreman is going about a round later in rookie drafts than Perine when Foreman has better metrics (late 1st vs mid/late 2nd). Is it the team (Was vs Hou)? Is it the situation (Kelly vs Miller)?

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:59 am

A) People are valuing situation over talent. They see Fat Rob as easier to beat out than Lamar Miller, and also the Washington offense should be better than the Houston offense.
B) There are a lot of people who think Foreman simply isn't that good for reasons I don't agree with.

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Reljac » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:12 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:59 am A) People are valuing situation over talent. They see Fat Rob as easier to beat out than Lamar Miller, and also the Washington offense should be better than the Houston offense.
B) There are a lot of people who think Foreman simply isn't that good for reasons I don't agree with.
Exactly this.

Lamar Miller's contract allows the Texans to get out pretty cheaply at the end of this season, so Foreman's situation could change and between this possibility and metrics he's a strong buy low at 2nd round value. If Miller is not retained by the Texans before his contract spikes next year, Foreman's value would go up a lot.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:26 am

People think Perine will end up starting over Kelley even though he was taken in the 4th and Kelley, despite being a UDFA, already beat out a prior 3rd round pick for the starting job, personally I don't think Perine is that much more talented than Kelley (if at all), at least not enough to take the job from hit outright and I doubt Kelley does anything to lose it

Foreman got drafted by a team with a fantastic defense that wants to control the ball and a guy in Miller who proved last year he can't handle a full season's workload (there was a reason he never got a full compliment of touches in Miami) and would probably serve better as CoP/complimentary back

Perine went with the 1.06 in my rookie/FA draft, I took Foreman at the 2.10
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:42 am

It's all due to situation.

That's why I do pre draft rankings. I always like to know where I see talent first and go from there. I couldn't find very many people who had Perine ranked higher then Foreman leading up to the draft. Foreman was mostly looked at as the 5th RB at least in every expert mock I saw. Then after the draft Perine is going 1.7-1.9 And Foreman is late 2nd to early 3rd, all the while people are calling Foreman "overvalued" somehow.

I don't think people realize the Texans want to lower the work of Miller. It's a great defensive team that will have a rookie QB and want to control the games. It's a good situation to be in. That said I haven't really understood why there is now this huge gap between the two and it's odd to me.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby themburns » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:51 am

It's a proper gap. Perine broke out as a freshman, with a 60+% dominator rating in his first two seasons and put up three good years of production. He bulked up his last year to fit better with his backfield mate, Joe Mixon, but he was still productive, with more rushing yards than Mixon in the majority of games they played in together. He's slimming down and should regain some of the burst that he'll need for longer runs in the NFL. Perine does the things well that will enable him to get on the field early. He's the strongest running back in the class and a fine blocker, and his coaches in Washington are already impressed with his hands. And yes, opportunity does matter, particularly if you want a return on the investment in the near future. I'm usually looking to move my running backs into more stable assets. Perine is a prime candidate for this.

I like Foreman, but not enough to spend any kind of first on him. I think he's raw and runs too upright. I don't think he'll produce in the near term. Will probably be cheaper next off season, might look to buy then. I think Lamar Miller is going to continue to be productive, and since the Texans got rid of Osweiler, they have plenty of cap room to keep Miller for another year at a reasonable price. (6.75 million in 2018) In fact, the Texans have 56 million dollars free for 2018. What's more likely is that this is a time share for the foreseeable future.

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Servo » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:29 am

QB (for now): WAS > HOU
OL: WAS > HOU
Defense: HOU > WAS
Weapons: Meh Hopkins/Fuller vs. Reed/Crowder/Pryor and maybe Doctson

Foreman is and will be one of the most contested rookies on this forum, and I can say that I've been on the train well before DD's RB Report came out.

Even though Foreman almost went a full round higher than Perine, people like the odds of an UDFA being beaten out rather than Lamar Miller....who to this day still hasn't shaken a lot of the questions about him that were brought up in Miami.

I think you also have people trying to find the next Jordan Howard (beating out JAG Jeremy Langford) and in that pursuit, they are driven up draft boards.

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby btv802 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:07 am

Opportunity/situation. Foreman the better prospect for me though.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby maxhyde » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:39 am

It is almost entirely situation as others are saying. Unlike the others I feel at RB situation matters more than talent in the short term. They are the players that can increase their value considerably if they are a factor in the rotation or takeover. Taking Perine is a bit of a gamble on situation but for my money I prefer Perine straight up to Foreman despite the size/speed advantage Foreman has. Perine kept Mixon on the bench most of college so it isn't as though he brings nothing to the table. Probably the most underrated RB in this years draft (maybe tied with Pumphrey) imo but his value is rising. Perine may not bring breakaway speed or dynamic plays but he will run you over and wear you down for 4 quarters and that has almost always worked in the NFL. Not super-exciting but effective
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:00 am

maxhyde wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:39 am It is almost entirely situation as others are saying. Unlike the others I feel at RB situation matters more than talent in the short term. They are the players that can increase their value considerably if they are a factor in the rotation or takeover. Taking Perine is a bit of a gamble on situation but for my money I prefer Perine straight up to Foreman despite the size/speed advantage Foreman has. Perine kept Mixon on the bench most of college so it isn't as though he brings nothing to the table. Probably the most underrated RB in this years draft (maybe tied with Pumphrey) imo but his value is rising. Perine may not bring breakaway speed or dynamic plays but he will run you over and wear you down for 4 quarters and that has almost always worked in the NFL. Not super-exciting but effective
idk how accurate it is to say that Perine kept Mixon on the bench considering Perine was the entrenched starter when Mixon got there and Mixon had his own issues to deal with off the field, also Perine averaged 20.1 touches per game while Mixon averaged 14.6 and, over the two years Mixon was in OK Mixon saw his workload increase and Perine's decrease

it's like telling me that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart kept each other on the bench while DWill was on the Panthers, just two guys with different skillsets who saw a good amount of work because they complimented each other well

also, I don't think you can call a guy with an ADP of 1.10 in rookie drafts underrated
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:36 am

Why? Perine's perceived opportunity, of course.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby _yeti » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:58 am

What everyone has said, situation. Perine WILL provide immediate production in 2017, probably the most of his career. He will then increase a great deal in trade value next offseason as people chase the production.

With that being said, in my (IDP) league:
Perine went 1.6
Foreman (to me, traded back in for Foreman) at 3.8

Two round disparity! Couldn't believe Foreman went that late.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Goirish374 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:07 pm

So, no.

Not this at all.

it is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

This is the bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis level of assessment, sure, but for people who know perrine this is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

It's a question of talent vs. talent.

You might think i mean SP's talent vs DF's talent. I don't.

I mean Perrine's pre ankle surgery talent vs his post ankle surgery talent.

Perrine's position, far down on most folks' boards, is the product of their assessment of mostly his final year of college play. He was slow, indecisive and stiff. He also was entirely unrecovered from ankle surgery between his sophomore and junior years.

The pre ankle injury Perrine is unquestionably more talented than DF and is stratospherically more talented than the post injury Perrine that most NFL teams and nearly all fantasy players have based their comparisons on.

The issue isn't perrine's situation--its how much of a gamble returning to form will be. There is absolutely a chance he will regain it--in which case his current ADP will be theft. There is absolutely a risk he won't heal beyond what we saw last year--in which case his worth will tumble far below even a DF who doesn't supplant Miller.

So the issue with Perrine is gambling that he (as he has reported) is finally healthy, can remain so, and that the health will translate into a return to prior form.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Mephistopheles » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:13 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:07 pm So, no.

Not this at all.

it is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

This is the bumper sticker, sportscenter level pseudo analysis level of assessment, sure, but for people who know perrine this is absolutely not a question of talent vs situation.

It's a question of talent vs. talent.

You might think i mean SP's talent vs DF's talent. I don't.

I mean Perrine's pre ankle surgery talent vs his post ankle surgery talent.

Perrine's position, far down on most folks' boards, is the product of their assessment of mostly his final year of college play. He was slow, indecisive and stiff. He also was entirely unrecovered from ankle surgery between his sophomore and junior years.

The pre ankle injury Perrine is unquestionably more talented than DF and is stratospherically more talented than the post injury Perrine that most NFL teams and nearly all fantasy players have based their comparisons on.

The issue isn't perrine's situation--its how much of a gamble returning to form will be. There is absolutely a chance he will regain it--in which case his current ADP will be theft. There is absolutely a risk he won't heal beyond what we saw last year--in which case his worth will tumble far below even a DF who doesn't supplant Miller.

So the issue with Perrine is gambling that he (as he has reported) is finally healthy, can remain so, and that the health will translate into a return to prior form.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:18 pm

_yeti wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:58 am What everyone has said, situation. Perine WILL provide immediate production in 2017, probably the most of his career. He will then increase a great deal in trade value next offseason as people chase the production.

With that being said, in my (IDP) league:
Perine went 1.6
Foreman (to me, traded back in for Foreman) at 3.8

Two round disparity! Couldn't believe Foreman went that late.
Thank you for posting these results. This should kill all this talk on this forum about Foreman being overvalued or Perine being undervalued that's insane with this type of disparity. I've consistently said Foreman is one of the drafts best values if these values are consistent and have been adamant about that.

Here is 1 expert mock draft done pre draft: http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/dynasty-rook ... vid=1EffAG

Foreman is the 5th RB going 1.10, no Perine in the first.

Here is another that has him as the 6th RB right below Kamara but still before Perine and he goes at 2.03 here: http://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2017- ... nfl-draft/

Here is another with Foreman as the 6th RB behind Kamara again but goes at 1.12 here with Perine mid 2nd round again: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fantas ... draft/amp/


All these were done leading up tp the draft when nearly all information was available. I'm not saying nobody ranked Perine higher then Foreman, or that situation doesn't matter because it does, but I'm not moving guys a full 2 rounds apart due to location. For me this isn't an indictment on Perine at all, because both are very good. It's more about how far their values have shifted in a short time and not due to talent.
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