Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:50 pm

SCYCPA wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:29 pm
Chris_R wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:18 pm
_yeti wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:58 am What everyone has said, situation. Perine WILL provide immediate production in 2017, probably the most of his career. He will then increase a great deal in trade value next offseason as people chase the production.

With that being said, in my (IDP) league:
Perine went 1.6
Foreman (to me, traded back in for Foreman) at 3.8

Two round disparity! Couldn't believe Foreman went that late.
Thank you for posting these results. This should kill all this talk on this forum about Foreman being overvalued or Perine being undervalued that's insane with this type of disparity. I've consistently said Foreman is one of the drafts best values if these values are consistent and have been adamant about that.

Here is 1 expert mock draft done pre draft: http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/dynasty-rook ... vid=1EffAG

Foreman is the 5th RB going 1.10, no Perine in the first.

Here is another that has him as the 6th RB right below Kamara but still before Perine and he goes at 2.03 here: http://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2017- ... nfl-draft/

Here is another with Foreman as the 6th RB behind Kamara again but goes at 1.12 here with Perine mid 2nd round again: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fantas ... draft/amp/


All these were done leading up tp the draft when nearly all information was available. I'm not saying nobody ranked Perine higher then Foreman, or that situation doesn't matter because it does, but I'm not moving guys a full 2 rounds apart due to location. For me this isn't an indictment on Perine at all, because both are very good. It's more about how far their values have shifted in a short time and not due to talent.

These were all pre-draft items, though.

I did several drafts and mocks right after (within 2-3 weeks) the draft and saw similar results.

My first draft is a devy draft where Perine was already rostered. Foreman went #3 behind C. Davis and Ross, and ahead of Hunt, Z. Jones, Ja. Williams, and Mack, all of whom are currently being drafted ahead or just behind him.

Second one, Foreman went 15, Perine went 18.

In others, Foreman went 14-17, Perine 15-19.

Then....Foreman was reported as being "out of shape" for the rookie mini camp and Perine reportedly looked a lot slimmer and quicker, with better hands than he did at OU or the combine.

Looking at my rookie draft spreadsheets, that was the tipping point where Perine shot up boards and Foreman went way down. I even moved Perine up from my #17 to my #12 rookie and Foreman down from #15 to #20 on my board after that.
I mentioned a couple times in my post they were pre draft mocks, that was the point. To see players ranked purely off talent. If anyone had Perine over Foreman pre draft they were in the minority. And now somehow situation makes Perine a mid to late 1st and Foreman mid 2nd/early 3rd in nearly every single draft. That's a huge drop for someone only based off situation and is very short sighted imo. Either way it's very easy to see who is overvalued and who is undervalued no matter what you think of them both.

As for reporting out of shape, that's a ton of rookies. Joe Mixon did, how much did he slide because of it? The reason why I do and vslue pre draft mocks, and my own rankings is get a feel for who are the most talented players and then adjust accordingly after. But to the OP's point I don't see that huge of a disparity and I'm not reaching by that much because situation in 1 year.
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RB: Jonathan Taylor/James Robinson/D'Onta Foreman/Chris Hubbard/Keontay Ingram
WR: Jamar Chase/Diontae Johnson/Amron St Brown/Courtland Sutton/Rondale Moore/Donovan Peoples-Jones/Christian Watson
TE: Dalton Schultz/Gerald Everett/Greg Dulcich/Jeremy Ruckert

DL: Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack
LB: Leighton Vander Esch/Tremaine Edmunds/Blake Martinez/Telvin Smith/Sean Lee
DB: Earl Thomas/Keanu Neal/Minkah Fitzpatrick/John Johnson


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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:52 pm

themburns wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:03 pmThree times more carries last year than in his first two years combined, and it wasn't like there was someone superior at the position holding him back. Charlie Strong, in an attempt to save his job featured Foreman, and made him look good. And even then, he still only caught 7 passes in the whole year. (Which I think is very sketchy for any kind of "three down back") It's much more likely, if you ask me, that last year was the aberration.
Maybe the reason Strong featured Foreman his final year was because the previous year he averaged over 7 yards a carry?

i.e. He effing earned it?

It's not as if Foreman was bad his first two seasons, dude. He just didn't get lots of carries because Texas absurdly had five players with 70 or more rushes in '15. And Foreman toasted the two other RBs in per-touch productivity, by the way (the other two guys were both QBs).

At some point, you have to give a guy credit for his own performance, bud. Strong didn't make Foreman average over 6 yards a carry last year with 320+ rushes. "Made him look good"? Please. Foreman obviously made himself look good. He didn't take 300+ touches and churn out pedestrian efficiency with a big stat total. He took 300+ touches and his worst game of the season was 4.5 ypc.


Oh and btw, regarding Foreman's passing-down potential (or the alleged lack thereof), people should bear in mind that Texas just didn't like throwing passes to RBs, period. Check the stats for yourselves. Foreman's seven receptions in '16 is five more receptions than the only other RB to catch any passes in that Texas offense.

Foreman's hands, hips, body-control, and quickness all suggest he should be a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield. It's his pass-protection that needs work.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Goirish374 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:04 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:39 pmit's obvious to see and requires little to no research.
well, we certainly agree on that!
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:06 pm

Point is, the impressions of the people that only do token research are always the most numerous category and thus have the most impact on ADP.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Goirish374 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:24 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:06 pm people that only do token research
at the risk of engaging in an entirely tangential discussion: that's a really interesting question.

what is the source of the data that go into the DLF ADP?

i had assumed that this ADP data came from the DLF mocks that McDowell put together, which in turn were comprised of DLF writers.

i am unable to reference or source this opinion it's just...what i always assumed.

if it's just compiled from MFL drafts or something...that certainly changes how i view that information.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby theone » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:46 pm

We could ask the same question with Hunt who is being taken near Perine with similar NFL draft capital. On the other end, we could ask why Connor is being drafted 15 spots after Foreman in rookie drafts despite holding very similar NFL draft capital. The fact is situation matters a lot in terms of opportunity for backs drafted in the middle rounds where the talent level is so close. Miller is light-years ahead of Kelley, who is likely at best a career backup, as an NFL running back which makes for a far easier path to production for Perine.

We should not dismiss the football issues about Foreman that contribute to the gap though, a few of which follows. Foreman has had conditioning issues throughout college and that continued into the NFL offseason. He also displayed poor pass protection technique at times (which many rookies do) and abysmal ball protection skills. These are correctable issues but also the type of problems that keep running backs on the bench or with limited roles if not addressed. These are not issues for Perine. Foreman is clearly the better athlete but he is not much more than an average overall athlete by NFL standards. I have the two very close together in my rankings.

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Servo » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:47 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:52 pm
themburns wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:03 pmhe still only caught 7 passes in the whole year.
Oh and btw, regarding Foreman's passing-down potential (or the alleged lack thereof), people should bear in mind that Texas just didn't like throwing passes to RBs, period. Check the stats for yourselves. Foreman's seven receptions in '16 is five more receptions than the only other RB to catch any passes in that Texas offense.
To piggy-back on Ninos post, Foreman's lacks of receptions is not an indictment of him as a player IMO as we look at Texas' RB receiving numbers over the last few years, under Charlie Strong:

2014
Malcolm Brown - 16
Johnathan Gray - 20
Foreman - 1
Daje Johnson - 0

2015
Foreman - 5
Jerrod Heard - 1
Gray - 6
Warren - 5
Daje Johnson (converted into WR)

2016
Foreman - 7
Warren - 0
Jerrod Heard (converted into WR)
Porter - 2

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Novacane » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:49 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:24 pm
ninotoreS wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:06 pm people that only do token research
at the risk of engaging in an entirely tangential discussion: that's a really interesting question.

what is the source of the data that go into the DLF ADP?

i had assumed that this ADP data came from the DLF mocks that McDowell put together, which in turn were comprised of DLF writers.

i am unable to reference or source this opinion it's just...what i always assumed.

if it's just compiled from MFL drafts or something...that certainly changes how i view that information.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Friction » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:51 pm

Honestly, both Foreman and Perine somewhat worry me for fantasy purposes. All my leagues are PPR and the big, GL backs can be tough to start sometimes. Even 100 yard games, which are great in real football, seem to always be outscored by some third down back starting against me. That's a whole other issue, but I think they are both intriguing to say the least. I will be more likely to draft Foreman at his current ADP unless Samaje drops to late first range at least.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Goirish374 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:53 pm

Novacane wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:49 pm There is no vetting whatsoever.
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby maxhyde » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:16 pm

In May in the superflex league made up of all DLF forum people Perine went 1.10 and Foreman 2.01. That has been pretty standard in my drafts but I have seen Foreman as high as 1.10 (low 2.10) and Perine as high as 1.06 (low 2.03) in non IDP drafts.

If Foreman is really late 2nd early 3rd then I would suggest those people are basing it solely on Miller >>> Kelley and not considering Perine or Foreman at all
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby A-train » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:28 pm

In my draft Perine went at 10. I moved up to draft Foreman at 14 because the team drafting 15 needed a rb.
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QB: Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota
RB: Ezekiel Elliot, Alex Collins, D'onta Foreman, Chris Carson, James White, Kenneth Dixon
WR: Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, Laquon Treadwell, Taywan Taylor, Josh Malone
TE: Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Adam Shaheen
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QB: Patrick Mahommes, Josh Rosen
RB: Royce Freeman, Nick Chubb, Phillip Lindsay, Derius Guice, Melvin Gordon
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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Valhalla » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:31 pm

The eye test tells me Perine is (or at least was at one time) a significantly better RB than Foreman. The metrics and '16 college production say otherwise, to an extent.
I prefer to trust my eyes when there's a conflict. My eyes tell me Foreman had countless huge holes to run through that really made his stellar college production as stellar as it was. He looked like a solid, not great college RB with giant holes. Big bruisers are always valuable in the NFL, so I want to own foreman, but not over perine. Like GoIrish said, Perine's early performances looked like a higher talent level (to me anyways) than Foreman's best. Perine's production went down, yes, but he was possibly running under 100% AND splitting with Mixon. Anyone's production is going down (yes even foreman's) when splitting with Mixon. I am in the camp of wanting to gamble that Perine can get back to his old ways and be a dominant back...over taking a better combine metrics (and, yes, last year's college production) guy that I just can't get excited about when I watch any film.
I haven't really dedicated a ton of time to foreman, though, so maybe what I've seen (the gaping holes) isn't a true picture of where significant yardage came from.

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:13 pm

themburns wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:03 pm I know this forum is in love with Foreman, but damn. He was drafted some 24 picks ahead of Perine, in the late 3rd. It's not like that's a gap in tiers. Could have just as easily been a team reaching on a guy with measurables who has only one good year of production. Three times more carries last year than in his first two years combined, and it wasn't like there was someone superior at the position holding him back. Charlie Strong, in an attempt to save his job featured Foreman, and made him look good. And even then, he still only caught 7 passes in the whole year. (Which I think is very sketchy for any kind of "three down back") It's much more likely, if you ask me, that last year was the aberration.

You would think that on the outside looking in and I wouldn't blame you. But Texas took over the Veer and Shoot offense, aka Art Briles/Baylor offense. The offense is structured that way to not throw to the RB, has nothing to do with his skill set. Look at the history of Briles' offense and you see the same. Shock Linwood caught 22 career passes under Briles in 4 full years of immense playing time. That offense is literally made up of extreme wide WR splits, vertical bombs, and quick hitches. It isn't complex, it doesn't throw to the TE, it doesn't throw to the RB. This is the basis of the offense and you will find the stats to be the same every year. This is why they were plug and play at QB. It's a simple cookie cutter offense that plays off wide open splits and tiring a defense out. Effective, but you can't draw parallels from the deficiencies of that offense. Everyone in attendance at his pro day marveled at how natural he was at catching the ball. Can't blame him for something the offense doesn't involve.

And as for Strong, he didn't start Foreman as an attempt to save his job. He started his entire junior year. He wasalso the best RB and one of the best players his sophomore year (game splits with Jonathan Gray clearly show he was superior) but Strong had lost the locker room and was starting seniors who didn't deserve it all over the place. J Gray was not the only senior appointed a job who didn't deserve it. It takes about 2 minutes to look at their game by game usage to see who was clearly better even if you didn't watch the games, which I did.

Again, from the outside no problem with these concerns but they are easily disputed if you dig into them. You won't find one single RB, or TE, that was featured in the passing game of an art Briles offense because it's not set up to be a pro style, get everyone involved type of offense. And you could go up and down the 2015 Longhorns to find terrible Seniors playing over more talented under classmen. That's been a balance Strong never found. Foreman averaged 7.2ypc that year it isn't like he was struggling and came out of nowhere.
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1 QB, 1 QB/RB, 1 RB, 1 WR, RB/WR, WR/TE, 1 TE, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 2 DL/LB/DB

QB: Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray
RB: Jonathan Taylor/James Robinson/D'Onta Foreman/Chris Hubbard/Keontay Ingram
WR: Jamar Chase/Diontae Johnson/Amron St Brown/Courtland Sutton/Rondale Moore/Donovan Peoples-Jones/Christian Watson
TE: Dalton Schultz/Gerald Everett/Greg Dulcich/Jeremy Ruckert

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Re: Why is Perine being taken a round before Foreman?

Postby ericanadian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:11 pm

themburns wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:51 am It's a proper gap. Perine broke out as a freshman, with a 60+% dominator rating in his first two seasons and put up three good years of production. He bulked up his last year to fit better with his backfield mate, Joe Mixon, but he was still productive, with more rushing yards than Mixon in the majority of games they played in together. He's slimming down and should regain some of the burst that he'll need for longer runs in the NFL. Perine does the things well that will enable him to get on the field early. He's the strongest running back in the class and a fine blocker, and his coaches in Washington are already impressed with his hands. And yes, opportunity does matter, particularly if you want a return on the investment in the near future. I'm usually looking to move my running backs into more stable assets. Perine is a prime candidate for this.

I like Foreman, but not enough to spend any kind of first on him. I think he's raw and runs too upright. I don't think he'll produce in the near term. Will probably be cheaper next off season, might look to buy then. I think Lamar Miller is going to continue to be productive, and since the Texans got rid of Osweiler, they have plenty of cap room to keep Miller for another year at a reasonable price. (6.75 million in 2018) In fact, the Texans have 56 million dollars free for 2018. What's more likely is that this is a time share for the foreseeable future.
Perine's been cutting weight since he started at Oklahoma. Look up the offseason reports, he came into college at 243 and dropped about five pounds each offseason.
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