How is Ware < Miller?

[Goddard]

Let's just say they're both a little overrated. Miller is being drafted as a low end RB1/ high end RB2. I don't think anyone would feel comfortable having him as their RB1. Same with Ware and being a RB2. In terms of who's better, Miller is probably more talented, but hasn't been able to stay 100% throughout a full season to demonstrate what he can actually do (which is why people are down on him). Ware showed last year that he can put up good fantasy numbers, but looked very average/below average in the second half of the season and will have to at least do it again before we can say he's better than Miller. Both teams drafted a RB with basically identical picks. No one can say for certain which one is better or who will be more of a threat to the starter. I think if you own either, it's probably a good idea to pick up the backup, even though I'm not a big fan of handcuffing.

[maxhyde]

3) He has a lot more investment from his team. Last year Houston gave Miller 4y/$26m with $14m guaranteed. At the same time, KC gave Ware 2y/$3.6m with $2.3m guaranteed.

Almost true, at the end of this season, the dead money on the Lamar Miller drops from $8.5m to $2m. So the teams investment is not what you think. He will be cuttable if Texans want to move on.

They will have the choice of $14m for 2 years salary which is high for a RB or they can move on for $2m and keep Foreman for cheap.

Right and you can bet Miller's agent is in his ear on that and has been since they drafted Foreman.
I think IF the HOU passing game improves at all Miller is set for a career year and then force HOU to keep him and pay him. If HOU stinks out of the gate he could be splitting time evenly with Foreman (or worse)

[Reljac]

Right and you can bet Miller's agent is in his ear on that and has been since they drafted Foreman.
I think IF the HOU passing game improves at all Miller is set for a career year and then force HOU to keep him and pay him. If HOU stinks out of the gate he could be splitting time evenly with Foreman (or worse)

Unfortunately a career year would not take much... only topped 200 carries twice... only topped 1k yards twice. but this tends to not speak well for him fitting the Texans scheme:

Although the Texans ranked fifth in the league with 2.02 yards before contact on gap scheme runs, their running backs were mostly unable to take advantage of what the offensive line created for them. In fact, Houston ball carriers averaged just 1.95 yards after contact on gap scheme runs, which ranked 29th in the league. Consequently, the Texans ranked just 16th in the league with 3.97 yards per attempt on these plays.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

3) He has a lot more investment from his team. Last year Houston gave Miller 4y/$26m with $14m guaranteed. At the same time, KC gave Ware 2y/$3.6m with $2.3m guaranteed.

Almost true, at the end of this season, the dead money on the Lamar Miller drops from $8.5m to $2m. So the teams investment is not what you think. He will be cuttable if Texans want to move on.

They will have the choice of $14m for 2 years salary which is high for a RB or they can move on for $2m and keep Foreman for cheap.

Right, most contracts have more guaranteed early than late. Miller still has more investment (money they paid him and money they are still on the hook to pay him). That would make my statement true, not "almost true" (whatever that means).

Ware costs $0 to move on from for the team that just cut their WR1 for cap reasons and will have to make similar moves next year. Who do you think is more likely to be with their current team in 2018?

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Although the Texans ranked fifth in the league with 2.02 yards before contact on gap scheme runs, their running backs were mostly unable to take advantage of what the offensive line created for them. In fact, Houston ball carriers averaged just 1.95 yards after contact on gap scheme runs, which ranked 29th in the league. Consequently, the Texans ranked just 16th in the league with 3.97 yards per attempt on these plays.

Asking because I don't know- How does PFF define yards before contact? Is it just the point the defender contacts the player?

If so, the metric could have a blind spot for players that are better at avoiding contact in the backfield. It is quite possible that Miller helped the 2.02 yards before contract that Houston produced more than guys like Ajayi and Howard did (who had high YAC and are more violent/ less elusive runners).

[_yeti]

Although the Texans ranked fifth in the league with 2.02 yards before contact on gap scheme runs, their running backs were mostly unable to take advantage of what the offensive line created for them. In fact, Houston ball carriers averaged just 1.95 yards after contact on gap scheme runs, which ranked 29th in the league. Consequently, the Texans ranked just 16th in the league with 3.97 yards per attempt on these plays.

Asking because I don't know- How does PFF define yards before contact? Is it just the point the defender contacts the player?

If so, the metric could have a blind spot for players that are better at avoiding contact in the backfield. It is quite possible that Miller helped the 2.02 yards before contract that Houston produced more than guys like Ajayi and Howard did (who had high YAC and are more violent/ less elusive runners).

If a defender gets in the backfield close enough to disrupt the play, no NFL back is going to make them miss entirely without contact. Maybe once in a season per RB can you make someone in the backfield completely come up with air in a phonebooth of space. Even if you extend the play and make them miss, there will be contact.

Some of the worst teams before contact are the ones you expect to see there, MN, LAR, DET. GB, CAR, etc.

Some of the best teams (out of order) are DAL, TEN, ATL, BUF, WAS, HOU...

It is a measure of the OLine, not the RB.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Although the Texans ranked fifth in the league with 2.02 yards before contact on gap scheme runs, their running backs were mostly unable to take advantage of what the offensive line created for them. In fact, Houston ball carriers averaged just 1.95 yards after contact on gap scheme runs, which ranked 29th in the league. Consequently, the Texans ranked just 16th in the league with 3.97 yards per attempt on these plays.

Asking because I don't know- How does PFF define yards before contact? Is it just the point the defender contacts the player?

If so, the metric could have a blind spot for players that are better at avoiding contact in the backfield. It is quite possible that Miller helped the 2.02 yards before contract that Houston produced more than guys like Ajayi and Howard did (who had high YAC and are more violent/ less elusive runners).

If a defender gets in the backfield close enough to disrupt the play, no NFL back is going to make them miss entirely without contact. Maybe once in a season per RB can you make someone in the backfield completely come up with air in a phonebooth of space. Even if you extend the play and make them miss, there will be contact.

Some of the worst teams before contact are the ones you expect to see there, MN, LAR, DET. GB, CAR, etc.

Some of the best teams (out of order) are DAL, TEN, ATL, BUF, WAS, HOU...

It is a measure of the OLine, not the RB.

I am not really talking about "in a phone booth" plays. It could be just being a little quicker to or through a hole on a consistent basis. That would certainly drive up the average yards before contact, and I don't think it is independent of RB skill. Some RBs are definitely better at avoiding contact than others going through the line.

Is Buffalo's line good? maybe McCoy's shiftiness is just driving that up too

[_yeti]

PFF line rankings for 2016:
1. TEN 2. DAL 3. PIT 4. OAK 5. GB 6. ATL 7. WAS 8. PHI 9. BAL 10. NEP 11. BUF 12. NOS 13. CIN 14. KCC 15. CHI 16. CLE 17. CAR 18. HOU 19. DET 20. NYG 21. NYJ 22. JAC 23. TBB 24. DEN 25. IND 26. ARZ 27. LAR 28. SF 29. MIN 30. MIA 31. SDC 32. SEA

Chart with yards before contact:


"(Fantasy Pros) Well, he was awfully mediocre in his first season in Houston, setting a career high in carries with 268 but career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (6.1) over 14 games . . . Pro Football Focus provides more evidence of Miller’s struggles, ranking him 50th out of 58 qualified RBs in yards after contact per attempt, and 49th out of 53 RBs in their elusive rating."

[_yeti]

Being elusive isn't really Miller's thing as I feel he often seeks contact, and Ware doesn't have a ton of wiggle either, but I think above should give anybody pause as to why Miller is as pumped up as he is. I think we all just fondly remember some nice looking chunk runs in Miami and situation made him seem tagged as a 3 down back poised to get a ton of volume (which he has). But can Ware provide the same production at a younger age and a fraction of the cost?

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Well, I don't even like Miller that much, I just question how much value should be placed on a number being spit out without any context. Don't get me wrong, PFF data has value, but I don't think you can apply it to every player without consideration for that player's style of play. Football is not baseball, and you need a ton of context to properly translate metric results.

My memory of Miller in Miami is that he had above-average burst and below-average power, so it a) doesn't surprise me that more of his yards come before contact than after, and b) wouldn't surprise me if he got more yards before contact with a given opportunity compared to a back with average burst. Admittedly, I did not watch much of Miller in Houston at all. I am a Dolphins fan living overseas, so I typically catch the Dolphins game and a few other 30 min games every week. I am not a masochist, so I didn't go out of my way to watch the Texans last year

Ware could provide the same production at less cost, but I think he is unlikely to have a starting job for long. Removing the season where both of them were buoyed by volume, the best thing going for Ware is that he looked as good as Charcandrick West after Charles went down in 2015.

Basically, I am not actively buying either guy at their price. I would rather buy Ware at his ADP than Miller at his, but straight up I would rather have Miller pretty easily.