DGB: Round 3

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rubber_duck
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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby rubber_duck » Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:02 pm

The above is precisely what is meant when I say that the analysis becomes clouded with poor information as the NFL draft approaches. I like Matt Waldman's work for the comprehensive approach he has and have purchased several issues. He does not appear to have any skin in the game so there is no issue with his profile of the player.

However, almost all pre-draft information coming from a current NFL scout or front office should be ignored. They have no reason to be honest and every reason in the world to mislead. If they just happen to say something that is honest, it is impossible to tell.

As for my prior post concerning an analysis of the NFL draft, I have never done such an analysis of a draft and have no idea what the validity of the results would be. Many of those criteria I have looked at (yes, Yeti, most of us have) and used sporadically for random candidates. That list of data to analyze was an off the cuff accounting; undoubtedly there are several more to be added.

I would be very interested in the historical results if anyone has done such an analytical review of several past drafts. Yeti, if you know of a reference, it would be much appreciated.

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby smallxl » Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:09 pm

Niners....
22-man, 12-team, 1 pt-PPR; Start 1-2RB; 3-4 WR; 1-2 TE

TEAM 1
QB: Prescott, Foles
RB: Barkley, P Barber, Duke, Gio Bernard, Gus, C Thompson, Breida, Ekeler
WR: A Cooper, Cooks, Lockett, C. Davis, Crowder, Chark, Stills
TE: OJ Howard

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:01 pm

themburns wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:22 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:51 am I thought DGB was worth spending a late-1st/early-2nd on, but for educational purposes let's examine the false narratives about DGB;

- Was he really talented? No, he wasn't. He was bigger and faster than everyone else so he succeeded in college, but he never displayed any type of nuance to the position. Most if not all scouting reports confirm this notion.
This is the part of the statement I found entirely unreasonable. Because there are plenty of sources to the contrary. Matt Waldman's RSP for example.
http://imgur.com/6b97E8d
http://imgur.com/pDt6htq

Or, how about these real NFL scouts talking to Bob Mcginn before the draft?

http://archive.jsonline.com/sports/pack ... 3621.html/
What, you might ask, is all this about Green-Beckham given that he finished a lowly seventh in the voting?

"He has the outstanding athletic package," an AFC personnel man said. "He may even be better than Cooper. Extremely talented."

That's a minority viewpoint among scouts, to be sure, but the AFC man isn't alone.

"Hard to cover downfield," said an another AFC scout. "Almost impossible to cover with a little corner. Super talented. He's a No. 1 for a team if he can control his demons."

Green-Beckham didn't even play in 2014 after being thrown out of Missouri 12 months ago for what several teams said were multiple failed drug tests and a domestic violence issue...........


Green-Beckham transferred to Oklahoma, where he practiced but was denied a waiver to play immediately.

"At Oklahoma they vouch for the kid," one scout said. "They loved the kid. His pro day was at Oklahoma (March 11), which kind of tells you what they thought of him. His receivers coach (Jay Norvell) was fired, and that was a big reason he decided to come out.

"At Missouri, everybody that I talked to loves the kid. From a football standpoint, they'd bring him back 100%. But from a university standpoint he had too many issues. The drugs, the weed. Then there was the altercation with a girlfriend. From the university standpoint, they had no choice but to dismiss him."
Feels like, the consensus at the time was talented. Good on you for avoiding him I guess, but that doesn't change what people thought at the time.
Except they're seemingly using the same bizarro definition of "talent" that _yeti is using, which is big + fast = talented. I only read the parts you posted but I don't see anything about route running, ball skills, ability to separate, anything like that.

As for Waldman, don't even get me started. I can't believe people pay... hrmmmmmm, lemme just shut up now :silent:

I wasn't necessarily avoiding him, there were just several players I liked better in that range.

What people "thought" is very different from what the actual facts were.

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby cazzie33 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:54 pm

I watched the Eagles mini camp this year. In the film of WR's he was embarrassingly sloppy. Legs weren't under him a lot of the time coming out of cuts and was getting handcuffed by throws from the WR coach. Obviously didn't come to camp prepared to perform.

That being said maybe he takes this setback and dedicates himself to his craft. DGB is still young enough but he sure hasn't shown the desire at all so far. Shame cuz he could be really special if he could get it back.

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby jeffster » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:55 am

Actually I thought Waldman was pretty spot-on on DGB. From the pre-draft RSP:

"Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: The only thing that can stop Green-Beckham is his approach to life and the game. If he has truly learned his lessons from the incidents that pushed him out of Missouri and focuses on the craft of his profession, he’s capable of dominant work."

And he goes on to say that we won't be privy to the private info the teams scout out on him and will have to be left wondering the same way we were with other huge talents who have off-field question marks. And he explicitly says that these elements are purposefully not factored into his analysis.

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby _yeti » Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:12 am

jeffster wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:55 am Actually I thought Waldman was pretty spot-on on DGB. From the pre-draft RSP:

"Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: The only thing that can stop Green-Beckham is his approach to life and the game. If he has truly learned his lessons from the incidents that pushed him out of Missouri and focuses on the craft of his profession, he’s capable of dominant work."

And he goes on to say that we won't be privy to the private info the teams scout out on him and will have to be left wondering the same way we were with other huge talents who have off-field question marks. And he explicitly says that these elements are purposefully not factored into his analysis.
No. According to Delorean he was Big+Fast and that is ALL. You, me, Waldman, others on this forum, his HS ranking, the two D1 teams he played for, the other D1s who offered him scholarships, the NFL team that took him 2.2, the rest of the NFL that wasn't going to let him fall too far if they didn't, all of us simply could not see through that he had no talent. Was merely big and fast and that sir is not enough. If only we understood football in any way all of us would not have been duped by this talentless hack DGB.
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QB: J. Fields, B. Mayfield, G. Smith, M. Mariota, S. Darnold
RB: T. Etienne, T. Pollard, S. Barkley, J.Jacobs A. Jones, , A. Gibson, D. Harris, Z. Moss, E. Elliott
WR: G. Wilson, T. Higgins, T. McLaurin C. Kirk, D. Hopkins, K. Toney. K. Osborn, M. Hardman
TE: T.J. Hockenson, K. Pitts, H. Henry
DL: M. Parsons, Q. Williams, D. Buckner, R. Gary
LB: F. Oluokun, R. Smith, A. Anzalone. L. David
DB: B. Baker, J. Metellus, R. Grant

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Balzac » Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:17 am

_yeti wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:12 am
jeffster wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:55 am Actually I thought Waldman was pretty spot-on on DGB. From the pre-draft RSP:

"Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: The only thing that can stop Green-Beckham is his approach to life and the game. If he has truly learned his lessons from the incidents that pushed him out of Missouri and focuses on the craft of his profession, he’s capable of dominant work."

And he goes on to say that we won't be privy to the private info the teams scout out on him and will have to be left wondering the same way we were with other huge talents who have off-field question marks. And he explicitly says that these elements are purposefully not factored into his analysis.
No. According to Delorean he was Big+Fast and that is ALL. You, me, Waldman, others on this forum, his HS ranking, the two D1 teams he played for, the other D1s who offered him scholarships, the NFL team that took him 2.2, the rest of the NFL that wasn't going to let him fall too far if they didn't, all of us simply could not see through that he had no talent. Was merely big and fast and that sir is not enough. If only we understood football in any way all of us would not have been duped by this talentless hack DGB.
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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Goirish374 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:05 am

_yeti wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:12 am No. According to Delorean he was Big+Fast and that is ALL. You, me, Waldman, others on this forum, his HS ranking, the two D1 teams he played for, the other D1s who offered him scholarships, the NFL team that took him 2.2, the rest of the NFL that wasn't going to let him fall too far if they didn't, all of us simply could not see through that he had no talent. Was merely big and fast and that sir is not enough. If only we understood football in any way all of us would not have been duped by this talentless hack DGB.
part of the issue is that Darkness just has a thing for going after Waldman. as soon as themburns mentioned the RSP, you knew what was coming.
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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:59 am

_yeti wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:12 am
No. According to Delorean he was Big+Fast and that is ALL. You, me, Waldman, others on this forum, his HS ranking, the two D1 teams he played for, the other D1s who offered him scholarships, the NFL team that took him 2.2, the rest of the NFL that wasn't going to let him fall too far if they didn't, all of us simply could not see through that he had no talent. Was merely big and fast and that sir is not enough. If only we understood football in any way all of us would not have been duped by this talentless hack DGB.
lol what? Yes, make up things I said and then argue against them. You really got me there. I never said DGB had zero talent, all I said was that his skillset as a WR was severely limited and he was not a REALLY talented WR entering the league. What his highschool rank was and what scholarships he was offered has nothing to do with that. I also provided evidence that I thought this way before the draft so this is not a remark made in hindsight. Additionally I provided a detailed scouting report from a respected NFL scout that mirrors this sentiment.
Goirish374 wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:05 am
part of the issue is that Darkness just has a thing for going after Waldman. as soon as themburns mentioned the RSP, you knew what was coming.
eh that's not true at all. I enjoy watching his film rooms sometimes and I'm sure he knows what he's taking about in technical terms. The issue I have with Waldman is he puts in all that work and in the end the conclusion he reaches about any given player and/or where he ranks them is complete garbage in my opinion. I don't have a "thing" for going after the guy, I just can't believe he's held in such high esteem. It really baffles me.

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Goirish374 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:58 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:59 amI don't have a "thing" for going after the guy, I just can't believe he's held in such high esteem. It really baffles me.
i stand corrected?
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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:20 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:58 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:59 amI don't have a "thing" for going after the guy, I just can't believe he's held in such high esteem. It really baffles me.
i stand corrected?
OK?

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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby _yeti » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:41 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:59 am
_yeti wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:12 am
No. According to Delorean he was Big+Fast and that is ALL. You, me, Waldman, others on this forum, his HS ranking, the two D1 teams he played for, the other D1s who offered him scholarships, the NFL team that took him 2.2, the rest of the NFL that wasn't going to let him fall too far if they didn't, all of us simply could not see through that he had no talent. Was merely big and fast and that sir is not enough. If only we understood football in any way all of us would not have been duped by this talentless hack DGB.
lol what? Yes, make up things I said and then argue against them. You really got me there. I never said DGB had zero talent, all I said was that his skillset as a WR was severely limited and he was not a REALLY talented WR entering the league. What his highschool rank was and what scholarships he was offered has nothing to do with that. I also provided evidence that I thought this way before the draft so this is not a remark made in hindsight. Additionally I provided a detailed scouting report from a respected NFL scout that mirrors this sentiment.
You do realize you are now taking this in a circle right? At the risk of re-hashing our entire discussion, also I did say that you had substantive knocks against him pre-draft, what I said was, just because you believed these things it did not guarantee them to be true:

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:01 pm
Except they're seemingly using the same bizarro definition of "talent" that _yeti is using, which is big + fast = talented.

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:51 am
- Was he really talented? No, he wasn't. He was bigger and faster than everyone else so he succeeded in college, but he never displayed any type of nuance to the position. Most if not all scouting reports confirm this notion.

_yeti wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:39 pm
You have such an arbitrary definition of what is talented, in your opinion it sounds like someone who is small+slow+good agility+sharp cuts and routes is a "talented receiver."
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:01 pm
Yes, exactly. Tyler Boyd is exceptionally talented, but he doesn't seem to be a good enough athlete to be a difference maker at the NFL level. We'll see though.

_yeti wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:49 pm
Wow. Small guy bias much? The smaller guys as a population are always quicker and more agile, that's what makes players like DGB and Calvin Johnson rare. You probably only like shooting guards in bball too, huh? Height provides advantages in some areas and disadvantages in others. You seem to be writing off the advantages, maybe due to a ppr fantasy based approach to football, you are neglecting some of the real world benefit.
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Re: DGB: Round 3

Postby _yeti » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:55 pm

Delorean- I think a good analogy I would make is Danielle Hunter. This is how:
(I realize not everyone plays IDP), but Hunter was tall, fast, light for his position, EXTREMELY raw, and extremely young. He was a gamble. Now if he played a skill position I wager there would have been a very similar debate as to what he would end up being as there was with DGB. (He plays DE so there wasn't).

Point being, he came under a defensive-minded coaching staff with the tools and desire to develop him and he very much wanted to develop and took to that coaching. He didn't have the off-field issues of DGB but that doesn't mean that DGB couldn't theoretically have committed himself in the same way. Hunter was pretty much the same thing, tall and fast and flashing against college competition. In the flashes his rookie season, I still see a WR who could have been much more than he is right now. He has shown he can put up 6 catches for 113 yards against top NFL competition. You are telling me he couldn't have learned to run sharper routes or have better breaks? That he was destined to fail 100% because of a limitation that still allowed him to slip through the cracks to the 2nd round even with all of his "red flags" and his time off from football?

Now, knowing what we know, Hunter would definitely go top 5 in the first round. DGB, maybe 5th-7th round.

It wasn't a definite fact either was going to work out the way it did. You could make the same type of knocks to Hunter's college play as to DGBs and project someone who would never learn the nuance of the position to be a force in the NFL. Both were high upside athletic projects. The self-righteous hindsight is what kills me because even the best professional talent evaluators are wrong all the time on predraft assessments.
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12 Team SF, PPR, TE Prem., DT prem., IDP Start 10, QB, 1SF, 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR, 1-3 TE, 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 1 IDPflex
QB: J. Fields, B. Mayfield, G. Smith, M. Mariota, S. Darnold
RB: T. Etienne, T. Pollard, S. Barkley, J.Jacobs A. Jones, , A. Gibson, D. Harris, Z. Moss, E. Elliott
WR: G. Wilson, T. Higgins, T. McLaurin C. Kirk, D. Hopkins, K. Toney. K. Osborn, M. Hardman
TE: T.J. Hockenson, K. Pitts, H. Henry
DL: M. Parsons, Q. Williams, D. Buckner, R. Gary
LB: F. Oluokun, R. Smith, A. Anzalone. L. David
DB: B. Baker, J. Metellus, R. Grant


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