Inconsistent Narrative: Ebron is a Bust

[jcc6fd]

So I know there's an inconsistent narrative's thread, but that got co-opted into the McKinnon discussion thread. So as one poster suggested I'm starting a thread about a single narrative: Ebron is a bust despite most people agreeing that TEs take a few years to develop. Now obviously things could have gone better, but calling Ebron a bust or anything close to it seems shortsided. He turned 24 in April and has only been in the league 3 years. I say "only" because even though 3 years is a long time for a 24 yo to have been in the league (which speaks to his talent), it's still a relatively short time considering the TEs take time to develop narrative.

Additionally, it's not like he's been bad. In 2016 he was 8th in the NFL among TEs in rec yards, and was 14th in 2015 as a sophomore. If he had even 2 more TDs in 2016 he would have been the TE 10 last year with 4 fewer points than Ertz and 5 fewer than Reed. And before we get hung up on PPG let's not forget he did miss a game last year and was consistently dealing with injuries. To return to the TD issue, I am of the opinion that TD production is an important factor and a measurable skill, so things could be better, but another wrinkle in Ebron's narrative is that most people agree that TDs are extremely variable and hard to predict. On top of that DET signed Boldin last year to be a RZ threat and he's gone now. So it's presumable that Ebron is not only DET's best RZ target now, but that even with the modest increase in RZ targets he gets from only Boldin leaving (and no personal improvement) he could score 3-5 more TDs.

The last point I'll make brings us full circle, and that is that playing 3 years and being a 24 yo TE does not mean Ebron can't improve. I'm not arguing, nor will I, that Ebron has had an ideal beginning to his career, but in the most consistent receiving metric of receiving yards he's been better than average in his early years. He can still develop and has first round pedigree and talent (though the way people are talking about the rookie TEs this year it's like Ebron is a talentless hack).

So there you have it. Feel free to pick me apart. I'd bet on Ebron having a good year, but anything short of a meteoric rise and people will still be down on him.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Nice write-up, and I generally agree with your points. I actually wasn't aware anyone was calling Ebron a fantasy bust at this point, but I don't have any shares and haven't been following him that closely. I know people rag on him in Detroit, but that has more to do with Aaron Donald and OBJ being the next 2 picks than it does with Ebron's performance.

This is the most interesting part for me:

even though 3 years is a long time for a 24 yo to have been in the league (which speaks to his talent), it's still a relatively short time considering the TEs take time to develop narrative.

Every year, we hear "TEs take longer to develop". Then when a guy isn't top 5 producer in their first 3 years, they are a bust. It is what has me hesitating to take guys like Njoku and Engram at their price, even where I need a long-term TE. I suppose I should check with the Ebron owner in those leagues to see if he is cheaper than the rookies...

[jcc6fd]

Every year, we hear "TEs take longer to develop". Then when a guy isn't top 5 producer in their first 3 years, they are a bust. It is what has me hesitating to take guys like Njoku and Engram at their price, even where I need a long-term TE. I suppose I should check with the Ebron owner in those leagues to see if he is cheaper than the rookies...

I'd definitely invest in him at a cheaper price over any of the rookie TEs if I'm looking for immediate production. Other than Howard he's on an equal playing field in terms of talent and you won't have to wait through the developing years and related downturn in value as people get impatient. He probably has more opportunity than any of them in the near future as well, with Njoku coming close here but with a much worse QB situation.

[Chris_R]

I've always thought it was weird also that people see Ebron in this light. 60/700 for a 23 year old TE is damn good. I'm not sure if people realize it or not but there were only 3 TEs in the entire league who had over 900 receiving yards last year, with Jimmy Graham barely making the cut with 923. I'm not sure if its people having unrealistic expectations for tight ends or not.

Here's another fun fact; how many seasons did it take Greg Olson, fantasy beast at TE, to have more yards then 700 in a season? His sixth season. It took 8 to top 1000 yards. And with Anquan Boldin gone it opens up a ton of production for Ebron to have in the redzone that he didnt get last year. Ive traded for him in as many places as possible from people who look at him as some sort of bust and who dont realize what he did at 23 was highly impressive.

[jaykay22]

Not an Ebron owner or truther or anything of the sort, but this was well-written.

I agree with you that Ebron and the Lions will never be able to live down Ebron being the 10th overall of that loaded 1st round when all but 1 of the 7 picks that followed Detroit's selection of Ebron turned into Pro-Bowlers, with the 3 picks immediately after him becoming elite at their respective positions (Taylor Lewan, OBJ, Donald). I think even if Ebron goes for 80/1200/10 this season OBJ going after him will always make people say "Yeah, but..." when it comes to the Lions' pick.

But Ebron is barely 24 and was raw coming out of UNC. Yet he's continued to develop every season and could finally ascend into top 5 TE territory in 2017. His catches, yards and YPR have all gone up each of the last 3 seasons. Most importantly both his targets (becoming bigger part of offense) and his catch % (becoming more efficient going from 51% to 68% to 71%) have improved steadily every season. And despite this he has yet to even crack 90 targets in a season with 2016 being his highest at 86 targets from Stafford. Playing in the current Lions' offense under JBC I think ultimately hurts him a bit as JBC has Stafford really spreading the ball. I can't imagine Stafford targeting him 120 times anytime soon, but I think if healthy for a full 16 Ebron should get 90-95 targets, and is a good bet for a 65/800/3 for his floor, and 70/850/5 for his ceiling.

FWIW I think the Lions would ultimately like Golladay to take over as both the #1 WR and the go-to red zone target of the future, but even if he does it will take him enough time for Ebron to eat some more in the red zone.

Bottom line is that he's an unspectacular but solid option in a position where if you don't have a top 3-5 guy, you always feel like you have nothing, but if there's a candidate to ascend into TE4-6 territory in 2017, it is him.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Here's another fun fact; how many seasons did it take Greg Olson, fantasy beast at TE, to have more yards then 700 in a season?

Good sign for Kyle Rudolph I remember owning Olsen back then, and people were just as unimpressed by his breakout year as they are of Rudolph's last year. Granted, I was one of those unimpressed people, as I was trying to sell him at the time, but couldn't find a buyer for more than a late 2nd!

Not to hijack the thread, but since we are on the topic of TEs breaking out late...

[Chris_R]

Here's another fun fact; how many seasons did it take Greg Olson, fantasy beast at TE, to have more yards then 700 in a season?

Good sign for Kyle Rudolph I remember owning Olsen back then, and people were just as unimpressed by his breakout year as they are of Rudolph's last year. Granted, I was one of those unimpressed people, as I was trying to sell him at the time, but couldn't find a buyer for more than a late 2nd!

Not to hijack the thread, but since we are on the topic of TEs breaking out late...

I know what you're saying, I also had Olson back in 2008 for our initial draft so you're absolutely right about Rudolph. It also took him until his 6th season to surpass 700 yards in a season.

To get on on topic I was highly impressed with Ebron this last year. And more importantly as already pointed out his numbers increased across the board every season. We are only seeing his floor right now and most people are under the assumption he has under performed. He won't hit his prime for that position for another 3 seasons or so.

This is usually why a bunch of people pass on drafting TEs and wait a few years in when people are giving up on them.

[ninotoreS]

I don't know about him being confirmed a 'bust', but he certainly hasn't yet justified being picked 10th overall by the Lions.

Please don't compare Ebron to Olsen. Even when Olsen wasn't allowed to earn stats in Chicago, fans and tape graders still knew he was one of the league's best tight-ends. Just not in fantasy. Fun fact: the Pats almost traded for Olsen instead of drafting Gronk.

Ebron is not like Olsen. Olsen is/was a true, complete tight-end. Ebron might be the softest starting tight-end in the league, in terms of play-strength; there's a reason he's always disappeared in the red-zone, even going back to his Tarheel days. Basically, Eric Ebron is a heavy, so far unexceptional wide-receiver pretending to be a tight-end.

We are only seeing his floor right now

You don't / can't know that. Just as likely that 55-yards-a-week mark last year was his ceiling, or close to it.

But hey, I'm a Stafford owner, so I'd love for you to be right. Ain't holding my breath, though.

[Chris_R]

I don't know about him being confirmed a 'bust', but he certainly hasn't yet justified being picked 10th overall by the Lions.

Please don't compare Ebron to Olsen. Even when Olsen wasn't allowed to earn stats in Chicago, fans and tape graders still knew he was one of the league's best tight-ends. Just not in fantasy. Fun fact: the Pats almost traded for Olsen instead of drafting Gronk.

Ebron is not like Olsen. Olsen is/was a true, complete tight-end. Ebron might be the softest starting tight-end in the league, in terms of play-strength; there's a reason he's always disappeared in the red-zone, even going back to his Tarheel days. Basically, Eric Ebron is a heavy, so far unexceptional wide-receiver pretending to be a tight-end.

We are only seeing his floor right now

You don't / can't know that. Just as likely that 55-yards-a-week mark last year was his ceiling, or close to it.

But hey, I'm a Stafford owner, so I'd love for you to be right. Ain't holding my breath, though.

Then why did it take him 6 seasons to do what Ebron did in his 3rd year since they are somehow incapable of being compared? And the comparison was only to show how long it takes a talented TE to produce those types of numbers, nothing more.

And I think it's safe to say that for a TE at 23 years old he didnt have his career best year. You can't name 1 other TE sho that would be the case for, can you?

[lukkynumber13]

Totally agree. He's so far from a bust.

You want a TE bust? Jace Amaro, that's a bust.

[ajmyk]

I agree that he doesn't get the respect he deserves, he's not a bust but widely underrated. Espcially when comparing his ADP to the rookies as you pointed out. But it could make sense in a PPR league as I will explain later.

Even thought let's look at the best TE and this "TE takes time to devellop" narative.
The only current TE producing at high level that took his sweet time to devellop is Olsen. We can throw in Delanie Walker too.

-- Elite TE's Gronkowski and Graham had unbelievable seasons as sophomore (1300+/17 and 1300+/11 respectively).

Sub-elite
- Kerlce broke out during his true first year
- Reed broke out as a Rookie (500/3 in 9 games)
- Eifert broke out in his true second season (As he was injuried in the first game of his second year.

- And rookie backup TE Hunter Henry did almost as good as 3rd year Ebron with half the targets. And Ebron was the only big man in a potent passing offense. (In fact the 8 TDs by Henry surpass all the career TDs by Ebron)

So, i still believe TE can take time to devellop, but then you have basically 5 players out of the top 6 in ADP who produced early, and obviously this make them better than Ebron for now.

As for rookie, it depends.
You see, the aforementioned TE (Kelce, Olsen, Eifert....) aren't truly elite except Gronk (and Graham when he was in NO).
they're generally better than the next tier of TE but not by a lot in PPR.
That's the reason that Gronk is very valuable, but the those TE ? Not so much.

So you see, Ebron can be a perrenial Olsen, that's basically his career upside, because he doesn't show the elite traits like Graham or Gronk who killed it very early.
And since Gronk is the only valuable thing, I can understand going for a rookie who hasn't played a snap and has a small chance, small but higher then Ebron, to be a Gronk-in-waiting.
I can totally understand going for lottery tickets over steady boring production, who by the way will always come cheap (If you needed a TE last year Pitta or Rudolph would have done it.

So I understand his ranking, he should be taken after all those guys, which ALSO means that he will come cheap and better to invest in him than going for Eifert who won't produce a lot more than Ebron.

Same for Ertz.

In TE-Premium league, i'd play it way safer and would take Ebron over the rookies, no questions. Ebron has far more value there.

[ericanadian]

I don't think anyone considers him a bust in the standard sense, but I'd worry about his value if he doesn't take another step forward in 2017. He gets extra attention because the guy had a similar career trajectory, though Pettigrew's problem was more pan hands than red zone ability. I also don't think Ebron will suddenly morph into a solid red-zone threat just because Boldin is gone. The team drafted both Golladay & Roberts in round 3 & 4. Golladay will take some time to develop, but I could see Roberts stepping in as an RZ specialist early.

[Reljac]

I hear the comments on TEs taking longer to develop but that narrative is only partially true. Take a look at truly ELITE TEs that are considered near the top of the top-25 TEs of all time.

Year in which they became a stud
Antonio Gates - 2nd year
Jimmy Graham - 2nd year
Rob Gronkowski - 1st year
Aaron Hernandez - 2nd year
Tony Gonzalez - 3rd year
Shannon Sharpe - 4th year
Kellen Winslow - 2nd year
Ozzie Newsome - 2nd Year
Mike Ditka - 1st year
John Mackey - 1st year
Jason Witten - 2nd year
Dave Casper - 3rd year

So we can argue whether TE's take longer to develop, some clearly do like Greg Olsen, Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis and Ben Coates, but for each of those guys their period of elite performance was much shorter than any of the guys on the above list, often peaking for only 4 or fewer years, while it took the 4 years or more to develop.

[Chris_R]

I hear the comments on TEs taking longer to develop but that narrative is only partially true. Take a look at truly ELITE TEs that are considered near the top of the top-25 TEs of all time.

Year in which they became a stud
Antonio Gates - 2nd year
Jimmy Graham - 2nd year
Rob Gronkowski - 1st year
Aaron Hernandez - 2nd year
Tony Gonzalez - 3rd year
Shannon Sharpe - 4th year
Kellen Winslow - 2nd year
Ozzie Newsome - 2nd Year
Mike Ditka - 1st year
John Mackey - 1st year
Jason Witten - 2nd year
Dave Casper - 3rd year

So we can argue whether TE's take longer to develop, some clearly do like Greg Olsen, Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis and Ben Coates, but for each of those guys their period of elite performance was much shorter than any of the guys on the above list, often peaking for only 4 or fewer years, while it took the 4 years or more to develop.

Did you seriously pull a list with hall of famers and expect that to be a trend line to follow? Really?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I agree with a few of the above statements. He's still likely to be good, but maybe not elite. He has improved each year. Are people really calling Ebron a bust though? Maybe just underwhelming for where he was drafted.