Jay Ajayi or Todd Gurley?

[Btj0016]

Who would you draft out of Jay Ajayi or Todd Gurley? I like Gurley but i think he's limited by being on a horrible offense. Ajayi has so much upside and has been talked up all offseason as the workhorse for this year. Thoughts?

[Needalife]

I'm sticking with Gurley, but it's really close. To me, Gurley has Forte upside but could also have a year like last. Ajayi reminds me a Marion Barber, runs angry. I'm just not convinced Miami is going to give Ajayi the workload in the passing game to take him ahead of Gurley.

[Goddard]

Gurley has more value. Even if you prefer Ajayi, you should be able to get Ajayi+ if you traded Gurley.

[ninotoreS]

I'm just not convinced Miami is going to give Ajayi the workload in the passing game to take him ahead of Gurley.

Gase has always preferred the RB that starts a possession to stay on the field for all or most of the series. He likes to use no-huddle more than the league-average, and to keep substitutions during a series to a minimum. Drake will never be a good early-down RB (and so far he's struggled in pass-protection, too), so all signs point to Ajayi being a 3-down workhorse if he can be even moderately competent as a pass-catcher. He was already rarely coming off the field last year, so even a minor uptick in the coach's confidence in his receiving abilities practically guarantees 50ish receptions if Ajayi plays all 16 games.

Even if you prefer Ajayi, you should be able to get Ajayi+ if you traded Gurley.

Not sure this is true. Gurley definitely isn't going ahead of Ajayi in redraft. In dynasty, Gurley is almost two years younger than Ajayi, so that's nice, but Ajayi's '16 season is neck and neck with Gurley's '15 season, and Ajayi gets the benefit of recency-bias. And I suspect people have more confidence in Gase's Dolphins offense than they do in McVay's Rams offense, particularly in terms of past RB production.

[Opeth24]

I think Gurley is a more talented RB and better long term than Ajayi. Gurley just has a horrible line. I don't think Ajayi can keep up the production and longevity.

[Goddard]

I'm just not convinced Miami is going to give Ajayi the workload in the passing game to take him ahead of Gurley.

Gase has always preferred the RB that starts a possession to stay on the field for all or most of the series. He likes to use no-huddle more than the league-average, and to keep substitutions during a series to a minimum. Drake will never be a good early-down RB (and so far he's struggled in pass-protection, too), so all signs point to Ajayi being a 3-down workhorse if he can be even moderately competent as a pass-catcher. He was already rarely coming off the field last year, so even a minor uptick in the coach's confidence in his receiving abilities practically guarantees 50ish receptions if Ajayi plays all 16 games.

Even if you prefer Ajayi, you should be able to get Ajayi+ if you traded Gurley.

Not sure this is true. Gurley definitely isn't going ahead of Ajayi in redraft. In dynasty, Gurley is almost two years younger than Ajayi, so that's nice, but Ajayi's '16 season is neck and neck with Gurley's '15 season, and Ajayi gets the benefit of recency-bias. And I suspect people have more confidence in Gase's Dolphins offense than they do in McVay's Rams offense, particularly in terms of past RB production.

Except this isn't redraft and Gurley's ADP is currently 6 spots ahead of Ajayi's. That may not seem like much, but it is when you're going from 22 to 28. I'd say the difference is at least a 2nd.

[ninotoreS]

Gurley's ADP is currently 6 spots ahead of Ajayi's.

I assume you mean dynasty start-up drafts? Anyway, you're not getting my point. I'm suggesting we could soon see Ajayi move ahead of Gurley in start-up ADP. They're already close, as you say, and in just the last week or so there's been several up-the-hype reports regarding Ajayi's expected workload, in addition to Ajayi's debut in the NFL Top 100 (Gurley dropped out of it, iirc), and a puff-piece article on NFL.com (I think it was NFL.com... if it wasn't, it was ESPN) picking Ajayi to be Miami's best candidate to make league MVP. Yeah, I know it's not going to happen, but puffery is puffery.

And no bleep this isn't redraft. Don't be pedantic. The point is simply that it reflects people's expectations for '17. Throw in all this other hype, and this is exactly how all ADP spikes upward throughout the offseason, start-up drafts included. Oh, and I definitely do not think the value difference between #22 to #28 in start-ups equals a rookie-draft 2nd round pick. Unless it's like 2019 or something, maybe, I don't know.

I think Gurley is a more talented RB and better long term than Ajayi. Gurley just has a horrible line.

I recall reading that Miami's run-blocking was graded 27th in the league last season. Anyone happen to know how the Rams were graded in '15?

I still like Gurley, a lot, but right now the only real difference between Ajayi and Gurley is their original draft pedigree, and that doesn't matter so much anymore, entering their third year as pros. Ajayi's '16 tape is every bit as impressive as Gurley's '15 tape.

And Gurley's '16 tape had more problems than just the O-line; Gurley also just didn't play well: http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ra ... es-in-2016

[Goddard]

Gurley's ADP is currently 6 spots ahead of Ajayi's.

I assume you mean dynasty start-up drafts? Anyway, you're not getting my point. I'm suggesting we could soon see Ajayi move ahead of Gurley in start-up ADP. They're already close, as you say, and in just the last week or so there's been several up-the-hype reports regarding Ajayi's expected workload, in addition to Ajayi's debut in the NFL Top 100 (Gurley dropped out of it, iirc), and a puff-piece article on NFL.com (I think it was NFL.com... if it wasn't, it was ESPN) picking Ajayi to be Miami's best candidate to make league MVP. Yeah, I know it's not going to happen, but puffery is puffery.

And no bleep this isn't redraft. Don't be pedantic. The point is simply that it reflects people's expectations for '17. Throw in all this other hype, and this is exactly how all ADP spikes upward throughout the offseason, start-up drafts included. Oh, and I definitely do not think the value difference between #22 to #28 in start-ups equals a rookie-draft 2nd round pick. Unless it's like 2019 or something, maybe, I don't know.

I think Gurley is a more talented RB and better long term than Ajayi. Gurley just has a horrible line.

I recall reading that Miami's run-blocking was graded 27th in the league last season. Anyone happen to know how the Rams were graded in '15?

I still like Gurley, a lot, but right now the only real difference between Ajayi and Gurley is their original draft pedigree, and that doesn't matter so much anymore, entering their third year as pros. Ajayi's '16 tape is every bit as impressive as Gurley's '15 tape.

And Gurley's '16 tape had more problems than just the O-line; Gurley also just didn't play well: http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ra ... es-in-2016

I guess I just didn't understand the purpose of your redraft argument since it wasn't relevant to what I said. I think you're missing my point because I'm not arguing who's better today or who will have more value 12 months from now. All I'm saying is, right now, Gurley has more value than Ajayi and if you traded one for the other, 9 times out of 10 you'd have to add to the Ajayi side (doesn't have to be by much). I think it wound be difficult to argue that, especially if there was a poll (actually, there is one in the team advice forum).

Edit: I thought there was a poll, but maybe not. Might be a good idea for the OP to add one.

[StableOfRBs]

Gurley's ADP is currently 6 spots ahead of Ajayi's.

I assume you mean dynasty start-up drafts? Anyway, you're not getting my point. I'm suggesting we could soon see Ajayi move ahead of Gurley in start-up ADP. They're already close, as you say, and in just the last week or so there's been several up-the-hype reports regarding Ajayi's expected workload, in addition to Ajayi's debut in the NFL Top 100 (Gurley dropped out of it, iirc), and a puff-piece article on NFL.com (I think it was NFL.com... if it wasn't, it was ESPN) picking Ajayi to be Miami's best candidate to make league MVP. Yeah, I know it's not going to happen, but puffery is puffery.

And no bleep this isn't redraft. Don't be pedantic. The point is simply that it reflects people's expectations for '17. Throw in all this other hype, and this is exactly how all ADP spikes upward throughout the offseason, start-up drafts included. Oh, and I definitely do not think the value difference between #22 to #28 in start-ups equals a rookie-draft 2nd round pick. Unless it's like 2019 or something, maybe, I don't know.

I think Gurley is a more talented RB and better long term than Ajayi. Gurley just has a horrible line.

I recall reading that Miami's run-blocking was graded 27th in the league last season. Anyone happen to know how the Rams were graded in '15?

I still like Gurley, a lot, but right now the only real difference between Ajayi and Gurley is their original draft pedigree, and that doesn't matter so much anymore, entering their third year as pros. Ajayi's '16 tape is every bit as impressive as Gurley's '15 tape.

And Gurley's '16 tape had more problems than just the O-line; Gurley also just didn't play well: http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ra ... es-in-2016

That was largely due to Pouncey getting hurt, the difference in Ajayi's YPC when Pouncey is playing vs. when he isn't is huge, Pouncey played in only 5 games last year and in those 5 games Ajayi averaged 130 rush yds per game and had 5 of his 8 rushing TDs, I don't like how much Ajayi's production is to Pouncey's health but as long as he's on the field Ajayi is a high end RB1

That being said Ajayi has no cartilage in one of his knees and as much as that has been downplayed as a non-issue over the past couple years that will come back to bite him in the bleep in the future and I doubt he'll be able to handle a full workload of 280+ carries for more than a couple seasons so Gurley in dynasty is a much better option imo, also I'm curious to see how Gurley does with an actual coach calling plays for him now

[Plank]

I'd prefer Gurley long term, but I am excited for Ajayi this year...

[Mastershake]

Last year I was offered Gurley straight up for Ajayi and I accepted.

I've always like Ajayis game, which is why I drafted him in the 2nd of the rookie draft. I moved him for Gurley because I think Gurley is almost as good of a runner and a better receiver. The biggest reason for me was longevity though, I think the younger Gurley will have a significantly longer career.

[Cabana]

Around week 9 last season I traded my Ajayi + my 1st for Gurley + a 2nd.

The first ended up being 1.08 and the second became 2.06. Still no regrets.

[ninotoreS]

Yet another Ajayi up-the-hype off-season article, this time by James Walker: http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins ... -tight-end

Meanwhile, all the off-season pieces on Gurley seem to be negative, between criticism of him leaving yards on the field and speculation that he'll get less passing-game targets in McVay's offense.

Deserved or not, I'm telling you guys, this machine-gun fire of recent Ajayi-hype WILL create some ADP shift, which I'm guessing will become apparent by August. If Gurley's changes, it'll only slide slightly.

[StableOfRBs]

Yet another Ajayi up-the-hype off-season article, this time by James Walker: http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins ... -tight-end

Meanwhile, all the off-season pieces on Gurley seem to be negative, between criticism of him leaving yards on the field and speculation that he'll get less passing-game targets in McVay's offense.

Deserved or not, I'm telling you guys, this machine-gun fire of recent Ajayi-hype WILL create some ADP shift, which I'm guessing will become apparent by August. If Gurley's changes, it'll only slide slightly.

Been doing more than a few redraft mocks a week since ESPN opened them up like a month or so ago and Ajayi has been going before Gurley in both standard and PPR for several weeks now in most of the drafts I've done, usually mid-late 2nd to Gurley's late 2nd-mid 3rd, even seen him fall to late 3rd in a few of them

[dm1129]

And Gurley's '16 tape had more problems than just the O-line; Gurley also just didn't play well: http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ra ... es-in-2016

One thing that is being almost universally ignored is that Gurley was outstanding his rookie season while playing on a very poor Rams offense. I cannot emphasize this point enough when considering Gurley long term. Even by KC Joyner's own analysis, Gurley averaged 10.9 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) on 73 carries, the highest rate in the NFL. Opposing defenses learned to ignore the passing game and sell out to stop Gurley. Fisher never even attempted to adjust. So while I think it is fair to criticize Gurley in some aspects last season, I also think context is very important. Fisher ran the same plays over and over never giving opposing defenses anything to consider nor respect. Because of this, after awhile I do believe Gurley became frustrated and was pressing which did not allow plays to develop nor did he take the time to read his blocking properly because the vast majority of the time doing so would result in a loss as plays usually did not develop as they were designed. Having watched every Rams game, I think it is extremely likely that if Gurley had taken the time to allow plays to develop and take advantage of good blocking, the end result for the season would quite possibly be worse as he also would have been tackled far more times behind the LOS.

In any case, Gurley has shown he can be very productive even on a poor offense. I think McVay will make the adjustments necessary to give Gurley just a little space and Gurley's acceleration and speed will allow him to get to the second level and it's off to the races. Additionally, McVay has always been outstanding at adapting to his players' strengths. I find it almost impossible that Gurley will not be much more involved catching the ball this season regardless of reports to the contrary. With the O-line of Miami, it is quite possible Ajayi will outproduce Gurley this season, however when considering age and Ajayi's possible knee durability long term, Gurley is the easy choice for me.