Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

[SteveMaddensShoes]

To start with, I enjoy narratives and think they serve a purpose if used as a tool. They can enlighten us to upcoming situation and give us new ideas and perspectives. They can help us interpret stats and metrics. They can help us make sense of outliers and absurdities. But, they are often inconsistent and skewed. We use them, not to discover knowledge, but as a method of persuasion or confirmation.

I'd love to hear your opinions on current narratives or even tell a story of an old narrative that you disagreed with and why it was wrong.

My first one, and it's probably because I own the player, so therefor it's already biased, is Jerick Mckinnon. He has been demoted to 3rd down back at best and others have assigned him fodder/waiver wire material. He had his chance and busted, etc. I feel the belief is he "busted" due to his production last year. Yet, everyone agrees the Vikings line was beyond terrible. But few give McKinnon the benefit of the doubt. All the while people are excusing Gordon's ypc and Gurley's ypc on their atrocious lines they tend condemn McKinnon.

Ahh, but SD and Rams didn't bring in new talent. And that is true. And it is meaningful. But the storyline that becomes very inconsistent is the free pass that both Lat and Cook have already been given. Especially Cook. Whether people agree with Cook being talented, most everyone has given him a free pass because that line is so bad. If he goes and rushes for 3.5 ypc this season no one will be surprised or concerned. Because we already believe the line is bad. But when it comes to McKinnon, it's not the O-line's fault, it's his own.

So my narrative comes off a bit ranty. And I'm not saying McKinnon is better than Cook. But I think he is worth a stash. And McKinnon's narrative is a good illustration and lesson on how we tell stories that are not consistent and cloud our view of player values and future production.

Feel free to disagree with me on McKinnon. It's just a story. And please tell me a story. I'd love to learn where I am consistent and what players I am biased about due to my inconsistent beliefs that evolve from false narratives.

[Goirish374]

So, i just want to chime in on the McKinnon idea. In the interest of full disclosure, i am a McKinnon owner in the DLFPL where I drafted him in the startup draft 3 years ago and in an RSO league where i dropped a 3 year "cheap as f#$%" contract on him during the 2016 free agency auction.

So, I've been firmly in the camp of "Believer to be named later."

The issue i have with your counter-narrative is that the criticisms of the MIN line, as you've (correctly, i believe) laid them out, break in favor of McKinnon's usage and his game. He was not routinely used as a between the tackles runner and was routinely targeted out of the backfield--particularly as the OL injuries mounted and MIN had to transition to a super quick release passing offense.

The issues with MIN OL actually favored McKinnon. He was not heavily utilized between the tackles and was frequently targeted on 3 step drops and other quick release plays designed to work around the papier-mâché OL. He should have had even better productivity under those circumstances.

The same criticism leveled at Gurley and Gordon is quite a bit more meaningful as their role is dramatically hindered by poor OL play.

So, i as a fanboy for several years, i can't help but feel that the best narrative is "if not 2016, when?"

There're really very few universes where the additions of LM and DC help McKinnon be better.

[TheChicken]

I find the never draft rookie TEs early narrative and the 2014 year was an outlier year and the you need to give rookie WRs 3 years narrative somewhat of an interesting juxtaposition.

Who doesn't think Howard/Engram/Njoku will be starting TEs in 3 years? The probability is that they all will be. If you're not a serial player flipper, they look good rookie selections.

[ericanadian]

So, i just want to chime in on the McKinnon idea. In the interest of full disclosure, i am a McKinnon owner in the DLFPL where I drafted him in the startup draft 3 years ago and in an RSO league where i dropped a 3 year "cheap as f#$%" contract on him during the 2016 free agency auction.

So, I've been firmly in the camp of "Believer to be named later."

The issue i have with your counter-narrative is that the criticisms of the MIN line, as you've (correctly, i believe) laid them out, break in favor of McKinnon's usage and his game. He was not routinely used as a between the tackles runner and was routinely targeted out of the backfield--particularly as the OL injuries mounted and MIN had to transition to a super quick release passing offense.

The issues with MIN OL actually favored McKinnon. He was not heavily utilized between the tackles and was frequently targeted on 3 step drops and other quick release plays designed to work around the papier-mâché OL. He should have had even better productivity under those circumstances.

The same criticism leveled at Gurley and Gordon is quite a bit more meaningful as their role is dramatically hindered by poor OL play.

So, i as a fanboy for several years, i can't help but feel that the best narrative is "if not 2016, when?"

There're really very few universes where the additions of LM and DC help McKinnon be better.

While most of what you say makes sense, his actual usage is not what you think it was. 59.9% of McKinnon's runs were between the tackles last year. Gurley came in at 62.2% and Gordon at 62.4%, so while it's true that McKinnon kicked it outside more than those two, it's not a significant differentiation in my view.

[skip]

I'll chime in on McKinnon from the other side as someone who hasn't owned him and won't. Every year owners get caught up with backup players who are getting thrust into opportunity. This is how they run out and overpay, often burning 1st round picks. Names this past off season falling into this category included McKinnon, Ware and Karlos Williams.

With McKinnon it was believed it was another year away until AP was released this off season but owners were still spending that kind of capital. The justification is generally based on a small set of data extrapolated over a longer period. Generally speaking these players ultimately were best suited for their current role and are not fit for full time duty.

Moving forward, the situation is now even worse for McKinnon than it was previously because he now sits behind two players who can carry a full load in both Cook and Murray. Murray is actually someone I would have invested in this off season had it not been for the drafting of Cook because he (Murray) has demonstrated his ability as a starter.

[StableOfRBs]

To start with, I enjoy narratives and think they serve a purpose if used as a tool. They can enlighten us to upcoming situation and give us new ideas and perspectives. They can help us interpret stats and metrics. They can help us make sense of outliers and absurdities. But, they are often inconsistent and skewed. We use them, not to discover knowledge, but as a method of persuasion or confirmation.

I'd love to hear your opinions on current narratives or even tell a story of an old narrative that you disagreed with and why it was wrong.

My first one, and it's probably because I own the player, so therefor it's already biased, is Jerick Mckinnon. He has been demoted to 3rd down back at best and others have assigned him fodder/waiver wire material. He had his chance and busted, etc. I feel the belief is he "busted" due to his production last year. Yet, everyone agrees the Vikings line was beyond terrible. But few give McKinnon the benefit of the doubt. All the while people are excusing Gordon's ypc and Gurley's ypc on their atrocious lines they tend condemn McKinnon.

Ahh, but SD and Rams didn't bring in new talent. And that is true. And it is meaningful. But the storyline that becomes very inconsistent is the free pass that both Lat and Cook have already been given. Especially Cook. Whether people agree with Cook being talented, most everyone has given him a free pass because that line is so bad. If he goes and rushes for 3.5 ypc this season no one will be surprised or concerned. Because we already believe the line is bad. But when it comes to McKinnon, it's not the O-line's fault, it's his own.

So my narrative comes off a bit ranty. And I'm not saying McKinnon is better than Cook. But I think he is worth a stash. And McKinnon's narrative is a good illustration and lesson on how we tell stories that are not consistent and cloud our view of player values and future production.

Feel free to disagree with me on McKinnon. It's just a story. And please tell me a story. I'd love to learn where I am consistent and what players I am biased about due to my inconsistent beliefs that evolve from false narratives.

First off, Gurley and Gordon are locked in their roles for better or worse (and there are plenty of people out there who think both players are just bad and the OL's had nothing to do with it) and both are used consistently in GL situations and have good touchdown upside, something McKinnon never has/probably never will do given the other pieces he has around him

McKinnon was a converted QB coming into the NFL and was largely considered a decent option after AP departed because of his athletic ability and explosiveness (iirc he had a very high SPARQ score) but he's proven that he can't even be efficient in space, the idea that he would be the 3rd down back is also an unlikely narrative as well because he hasn't been great as a receiver out of the backfield either, to compare him to Gurley and Gordon again they had 43 catches (JM), 41 catches (MG) and 43 catches (TG) each last year but Gordon and Gurley had a yds/catch avg of 10.2 and 7.6 respectively and they're not even considered especially good receivers for RBs whereas McKinnon, who is touted as an athletic weapon who should do well in space only has a career yds/catch avg of 6.2

Yes, Cook and LMurray get a pass because Murray is mostly just a GL/situational bruiser who has already shown he can do well in that role (set the Raiders record for most rushing TDs in a season) and Cook was the career rushing yards leader at FSU with two seasons over 1650 rushing yards and has yet to prove that he can't do it at an NFL level and if he came in and had <4.0 YPC people would be incredibly disappointed, just as they were after 2015 with Gordon (even though the 2015 Chargers line was much worse than the 2016 Vikings OL)

The narrative isn't that McKinnon is a "bust" because he had a low YPC for one season, it's because the Vikings paid a bunch of money for a new, productive GL back and spent a high 2nd round pick on an RB that a lot of people considered the best back in the draft and now McKinnon has been relegated to AT BEST a 3rd down role (I don't see any reason Cook can't be a 3-down back) which he's proven he isn't even particularly good at

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

[StableOfRBs]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

Well for starters the idea that Cook isn't going to produce more than McKinnon until they fix their OL (which they did somewhat this offseason) is a skewed narrative to start with, haven't heard anyone say that aside from you honestly, people are drafting Cook that high regardless of the OL because he's got that much talent/pedigree and really the only reason I could see Cook not doing well this year (like 1000+ total yards and 6+ TDs) is because MIN tries to get Murray involved inside the 20s and McKinnon involved on 3rd down

If anything Cooks expectations are higher than McKinnon's ever were simply because of what he did in college, he doesn't have a future HOFer ahead of him, and the fact that he isn't a converted QB, but the fact that you started a thread on skewed narratives with a skewed narrative is kinda funny

[ericanadian]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

Maybe do a weekly thread with a new narrative each week.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

Maybe do a weekly thread with a new narrative each week.

That's an awesome idea. I nominate Skip or Yeti to start the next thread.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

Well for starters the idea that Cook isn't going to produce more than McKinnon until they fix their OL (which they did somewhat this offseason) is a skewed narrative to start with, haven't heard anyone say that aside from you honestly, people are drafting Cook that high regardless of the OL because he's got that much talent/pedigree and really the only reason I could see Cook not doing well this year (like 1000+ total yards and 6+ TDs) is because MIN tries to get Murray involved inside the 20s and McKinnon involved on 3rd down

If anything Cooks expectations are higher than McKinnon's ever were simply because of what he did in college, he doesn't have a future HOFer ahead of him, and the fact that he isn't a converted QB, but the fact that you started a thread on skewed narratives with a skewed narrative is kinda funny

I'm saying McKinnon has not been judged fairly BECAUSE he had a HOF'er in front of him, he is a converted QB and when he did get the chance the line was putrid. He has not been judged fairly on his own merit. As far as Cook being so talented, I guess time will tell.

Btw, I'm not in any way claiming McKinnon is an RB1 or anything of the sort. I just think he is worth a stash and will increase in value and be usable after this year. Its worth waiting to see where he goes next if nothing else.

[Vcize]

I didn't really mean to turn this into a McKinnon thread. I just wanted to point out what I still believe are inconsistencies regarding who is getting blame in the Vikings situation. McKinnon=all his fault. Cook= worth the 1.06+ but won't produce more than McKinnon until they fix that line. Doesn't add up. I think I didn't explain myself earlier either. I didn't think McKinnon gained value this year. I just think he is worth a stash for a future date due to misplaced blame. Hopefully he goes to a team like SD next year that will use him like he should be used.

I don't mind hearing other's opinions at all. I was trying to focus the thread on narratives that don't add up to you. Not so much a huge debate on each narrative.

Well for starters the idea that Cook isn't going to produce more than McKinnon until they fix their OL (which they did somewhat this offseason) is a skewed narrative to start with, haven't heard anyone say that aside from you honestly, people are drafting Cook that high regardless of the OL because he's got that much talent/pedigree and really the only reason I could see Cook not doing well this year (like 1000+ total yards and 6+ TDs) is because MIN tries to get Murray involved inside the 20s and McKinnon involved on 3rd down

If anything Cooks expectations are higher than McKinnon's ever were simply because of what he did in college, he doesn't have a future HOFer ahead of him, and the fact that he isn't a converted QB, but the fact that you started a thread on skewed narratives with a skewed narrative is kinda funny

I'm saying McKinnon has not been judged fairly BECAUSE he had a HOF'er in front of him, he is a converted QB and when he did get the chance the line was putrid. He has not been judged fairly on his own merit. As far as Cook being so talented, I guess time will tell.

Btw, I'm not in any way claiming McKinnon is an RB1 or anything of the sort. I just think he is worth a stash and will increase in value and be usable after this year. Its worth waiting to see where he goes next if nothing else.

It's not like he was a high pick originally. He went from an unknown with opportunity to an unknown without opportunity. Much of his value was based on his upcoming opportunity. That opportunity is now gone so he's no different than 3 dozen other guys out there who are unknowns with no immediate opportunity.

And even if we blame everything on the line, a bad season is still a negative. Gurley's value still dropped even though people assume the line to be the culprit, and that was without his team dropping him to 3rd (at best) on the depth charter like Minnesota has with McKinnon.

Lastly, we can't just ignore that each player's coaches approached their player's performances differently as well. Neither the Rams nor Chargers spent any kind of significant money or draft picks on getting RB help this offseason. Minnesota spent both, which seems to imply they think it wasn't just an O-line problem, but a RB problem as well.

[Weeman]

Mckinnon is a great example of a player with an above avg athletic profile that hasn't translated to NFL success. He is now buried beneath Murray a player they paid a hefty amount to at minimum get goal line/short yardage work & then a talented rookie Cook who could at worst be used as a change of pace back to compliment Murray. If there's a committee it's hard to imagine Mckinnon in it.

Even if Cook is a bust, Do you believe Murray would lose touches to Mckinnon? LoL Honestly I'd bet if both under produced he'd still not see much chance for playing time.

Get off your soapbox quickly, the opportunity for Mckinnon to be a #1 starting RB in Minnesota has officially passed. They drafted an RB high to run & not an OL to block. It shouldn't be a riddle who their invested in.

I view a great stash as a player who hasn't had an opportunity but has mckinnons athletic profile behind a Frank Gore situation (nearing retirement), or often injured back, or a true JAG.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Mckinnon is a great example of a player with an above avg athletic profile that hasn't translated to NFL success. He is now buried beneath Murray a player they paid a hefty amount to at minimum get goal line/short yardage work & then a talented rookie Cook who could at worst be used as a change of pace back to compliment Murray. If there's a committee it's hard to imagine Mckinnon in it.

Even if Cook is a bust, Do you believe Murray would lose touches to Mckinnon? LoL Honestly I'd bet if both under produced he'd still not see much chance for playing time.

Get off your soapbox quickly, the opportunity for Mckinnon to be a #1 starting RB in Minnesota has officially passed. They drafted an RB high to run & not an OL to block. It shouldn't be a riddle who their invested in.

I view a great stash as a player who hasn't had an opportunity but has mckinnons athletic profile behind a Frank Gore situation (nearing retirement), or often injured back, or a true JAG.

I'm surprised at the amount of butt hurt over my post. I didn't know I needed to lube up my opinions.

[jcc6fd]

To be fair to the OP I understand the main thrust of his argument. Everyone acknowledges the poor O-Line play in MIN but it has not translated into any forgiveness for McKinnons lackluster performance. You could argue that until your blue in the face and not be wrong, but the issue driving down McKinnon's value isn't the contradictory "narrative" as you've stated but rather it's simply McKinnon's draft capital playing out the way it should. It's nearly irrelevant whether he would have done better behind the DAL O-Line because he isn't and won't. He's not a transcendent talent and his biggest opportunity has probably already come and gone, and NFL teams don't have a reason to trust him as a lead back. He has neither the college performance, draft capital, nor NFL performance to justify giving him any set role. So another 3rd round player falls out of relevance but our hyped up expectations for him somehow make this a surprise to us, when it's really par for the course. C-Mike is a similar case, though admittedly McKinnon has been a bit more steady.