Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

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skip
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby skip » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:00 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:50 pm Everyone acknowledges the poor O-Line play in MIN but it has not translated into any forgiveness for McKinnons lackluster performance.
From where I sit the "narrative" is that the offensive line is the problem. The issue I have with that is the evidence for that is poor RB performance. So where exactly is the problem? It isn't one or the other. It's both.

Just like with the Rams... The same narrative is being promoted that the offensive line is the problem and Gurley is getting a pass. I'd argue the same thing there. The issue is both, not one or the other.

The inverse argument is being made in Oakland, trying to make us believe that basically anyone can produce there in the backfield. So when Lynch averages 3.5 ypc, are we going to get a rewrite? Is the line not as good as advertised? Or has Lynch lost a step?
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby StableOfRBs » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 pm

Anyone that thinks Gordon got a "free pass" from his poor OL in 2015 clearly didn't own him considering he was already being written off as a massive bust because he went to the same school as Montee Ball and had a poor rookie season (and in fact there are still a huge group of people who think he's bad because last year behind the same OL he had .1 YPC less than the vaunted 4.0 everyone should have)
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:23 am

McKinnon has a nice athletic profile, but he's not an early down back. He's in the mold of a Gio Bernard, Duke Johnson type of player who can be a good COP back, and possibly on another team. So to me, the Gordon and Gurley comparisons don't enter, because they are early down RB's, and in Gordon's case he's improved his work in the receiving game to become a three-down RB.

Best case for McKinnon this year:

-Cook absolutely dogs it.
-Latavius never gets healthy.
-Vikings offensive line is actually respectable.

That clears a way for McKinnon to be relevant purely off volume.

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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby jcc6fd » Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:47 am

StableOfRBs wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 pm Anyone that thinks Gordon got a "free pass" from his poor OL in 2015 clearly didn't own him considering he was already being written off as a massive bust because he went to the same school as Montee Ball and had a poor rookie season
This is how I remember Gordon's value being last offseason.
skip wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:00 pm From where I sit the "narrative" is that the offensive line is the problem. The issue I have with that is the evidence for that is poor RB performance. So where exactly is the problem? It isn't one or the other. It's both.
Totally agree. McKinnon was not a good between the tackles runner.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby Balzac » Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:40 am

Ya it really comes down to McKinnon just not being a very good 3 down back. I've obviously watched him closely and I've never been thrilled for him to take over for AP. I see Murray and the yet to be proven Cook as much better options.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby pvillebiker » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:04 am

My narrative, from last year's offseason is about Devante Adams. The narrative then - "High potential WR just isn't good at football and is a bust." This was so wrong to me for a simple reason. Adams had a pretty good rookie year, then got injured and was never the same in his sophomore year. My simple thesis was, if his path to starting Packers WR really was derailed by injury, shouldn't he bounce back big in year 3? The Packers were saying this all along too. I kept picking up little blurbs from Rogers and the coach, seemingly with conviction, saying that he has star potential and injuries derailed his 2nd year. Anyway, that one felt good to against the grain and be so right.

To the OP, this is what dynasty is about. Find your own narratives that you believe in and buy/sell accordingly. Over time you'll be rewarded and hopefully have lots of fun.

On McKinnon, I've never owned him, but 2 major tells to me: 1. Bringing in Murray, and the more damning one, 2. Drafting Dalvin Cook. Those moves speak volumes about what the Vikings believe McKinnon's ability and potential are. Sure they could be wrong, but you gotta factor that in.

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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:19 am

pvillebiker wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:04 am My narrative, from last year's offseason is about Devante Adams. The narrative then - "High potential WR just isn't good at football and is a bust." This was so wrong to me for a simple reason. Adams had a pretty good rookie year, then got injured and was never the same in his sophomore year. My simple thesis was, if his path to starting Packers WR really was derailed by injury, shouldn't he bounce back big in year 3? The Packers were saying this all along too. I kept picking up little blurbs from Rogers and the coach, seemingly with conviction, saying that he has star potential and injuries derailed his 2nd year. Anyway, that one felt good to against the grain and be so right.

To the OP, this is what dynasty is about. Find your own narratives that you believe in and buy/sell accordingly. Over time you'll be rewarded and hopefully have lots of fun.

On McKinnon, I've never owned him, but 2 major tells to me: 1. Bringing in Murray, and the more damning one, 2. Drafting Dalvin Cook. Those moves speak volumes about what the Vikings believe McKinnon's ability and potential are. Sure they could be wrong, but you gotta factor that in.
Thanks for all the feedback from everyone. I have had some new ideas to add to my own narrative.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby akbfrosty » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:33 am

TheChicken wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:41 am I find the never draft rookie TEs early narrative and the 2014 year was an outlier year and the you need to give rookie WRs 3 years narrative somewhat of an interesting juxtaposition.

Who doesn't think Howard/Engram/Njoku will be starting TEs in 3 years? The probability is that they all will be. If you're not a serial player flipper, they look good rookie selections.
I've always found it really confusing, and the answer I always get is that they'll lose value after a year, so you can get them for cheaper next year. So many people incorporate the "sunk cost" into their players, though, so that seems super unlikely.

I personally think all those 3 1st round Tight Ends are some of the safest late 1st picks we've had.

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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby maxhyde » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:45 am

Inconsistent and skewed narratives? I mean all narratives are skewed to the bias of the writers...that is why we label them narratives and up to you to determine whether they are valid or not.
Melvin Gordon was a horrible one. So was Devante Adams. Others like McKinnon are at least partially true because of the results. He is a great athlete and MIN hasn't found a way to take full advantage OR maybe he just isn't good enough at football to translate his terrific athleticism over to any position. They kinda did the same thing with their other 'great' athlete in CPatt. I mean not all great athletes are great football players and not all great football players are great athletes. That is a narrative that is always true because it includes everyone.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby onetwothree » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:51 am

maxhyde wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:45 am Inconsistent and skewed narratives? I mean all narratives are skewed to the bias of the writers...that is why we label them narratives and up to you to determine whether they are valid or not.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby Goirish374 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:32 pm

OP, I apologize if my response was perceived as butt-hurt. I just meant to engage in a healthy discussion. Please accept my apologies if it came off in some other way.

No lube needed.

I recognize that it was a thread not specifically about the McKinnon narrative, as well.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby SteveVolk » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:45 pm

For me, Mckinnon is an argument in favor of narratives because he fits the "Vikings made their intentions clear" narrative. Truly, the analysts I followed for dynasty tended to think of him mostly as a great flip candidate--the sort of metrics player who would probably have enough success, with the opportunity presented by Peterson's absence, to see a massive value spike. They were "right," in that he saw a huge value spike. But he never did produce. I had him in one league where I took the team over as an orphan and dealt him for picks that brought me Kamalei Correa and Elijah Hood. —Best, Steve

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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:19 pm

pvillebiker wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:04 am My narrative, from last year's offseason is about Devante Adams. The narrative then - "High potential WR just isn't good at football and is a bust." This was so wrong to me for a simple reason. Adams had a pretty good rookie year, then got injured and was never the same in his sophomore year. My simple thesis was, if his path to starting Packers WR really was derailed by injury, shouldn't he bounce back big in year 3? The Packers were saying this all along too. I kept picking up little blurbs from Rogers and the coach, seemingly with conviction, saying that he has star potential and injuries derailed his 2nd year. Anyway, that one felt good to against the grain and be so right.

To the OP, this is what dynasty is about. Find your own narratives that you believe in and buy/sell accordingly. Over time you'll be rewarded and hopefully have lots of fun.

On McKinnon, I've never owned him, but 2 major tells to me: 1. Bringing in Murray, and the more damning one, 2. Drafting Dalvin Cook. Those moves speak volumes about what the Vikings believe McKinnon's ability and potential are. Sure they could be wrong, but you gotta factor that in.
The worst thing about that Adams narrative is that it is still following him around. I think it is funny to consider Adams and a guy like Michael Thomas. They are 2 months apart in age, and had pretty similar 23 year old season last year. Both have the benefit of playing with an elite QB, with a small question mark about how long that will continue (Adams' contract, and Brees' age/contract). Yet Adams 3rd/4th round startup pick while Thomas is a late 1st.

Why? The only explanation I have is that at 22 years old, Adams was underwhelming against NFL corners, while Thomas was underwhelming against Big Ten corners.
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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:28 pm

jtd1387 wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:19 pm The worst thing about that Adams narrative is that it is still following him around. I think it is funny to consider Adams and a guy like Michael Thomas. They are 2 months apart in age, and had pretty similar 23 year old season last year. Both have the benefit of playing with an elite QB, with a small question mark about how long that will continue (Adams' contract, and Brees' age/contract). Yet Adams 3rd/4th round startup pick while Thomas is a late 1st.

Why? The only explanation I have is that at 22 years old, Adams was underwhelming against NFL corners, while Thomas was underwhelming against Big Ten corners.
Thomas is valued higher because he hasn't disappointed owners yet. When he does, he'll be doubted and people will consider rookie picks over him. It's a common theme in dynasty. When your new toy gets scratched, it's time to panic and doubt. Some will be quick to remind you that Davante Adams was terrible in 2015 (even though he was playing injured in a Packers offense that completely fell apart), and that he needs to have a similar 2016 season for him to be taken seriously as a long-term asset.

Doug Baldwin is a similar narrative, though he was much more of a late bloomer at age 27. We knew the touchdowns would come down, but many wanted to see him do it again before we valued him to his production. Then in 2016, he posts a 94/1128/7 line and looks to be Wilson's go-to guy for the long haul.

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Re: Inconsistent and Skewed Narratives

Postby maxhyde » Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:12 pm

jtd1387 wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:19 pm

The worst thing about that Adams narrative is that it is still following him around. I think it is funny to consider Adams and a guy like Michael Thomas. They are 2 months apart in age, and had pretty similar 23 year old season last year. Both have the benefit of playing with an elite QB, with a small question mark about how long that will continue (Adams' contract, and Brees' age/contract). Yet Adams 3rd/4th round startup pick while Thomas is a late 1st.

Why? The only explanation I have is that at 22 years old, Adams was underwhelming against NFL corners, while Thomas was underwhelming against Big Ten corners.
Adams had a year much like James Jones in 2012...I think he is being slightly overdrafted to be honest. I mean he played much better but didn't look like a dynamic playmaker. He benefitted from a high TD to reception ratio and didn't crack 1000 yards. Should be at least a little concerning.

While Thomas hasn't had the 3 seasons Adams had it is hard to hold it against him especially when 2 of Adams seasons were not great and not even average. Thomas was pretty good as a rookie and lost his biggest competition for targets. I understand he also lost the guy that scared defenses so his coverages will look different. I usually wait for a guy to fail rather than trying to predict it. I think he will have difficulty with the transition to being the #1 target but more targets and maybe less efficient might even out.
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