Rookie Fever and Draft Questions

[Hahaclintondix]

Rookie fever is a thing. We all know it. Every year we chase the new shiny toys in hopes we find the next Beckham or Zeke, but we're let down more often than not. I know there are studies and articles out there about hit rates, percentages for each pick and all that jazz. What I would like to know is how it effected your league.

1) How often have you found that acquiring multiple first round picks actually works out?
2) In general, would you rather use your rookie pick to try and hit on a player, or would you rather trade it for current production knowing you might give up the next big thing?
3) How have teams in your league faired that have adopted the "rookie picks are better assets to trade then actually use" strategy?
4) How have teams in your league faired that blew it up and tried to rebuild through the draft?

Any insight is appreciated. Answer as many or few as you'd like.

[Madadamus]

Rookie fever is a thing. We all know it. Every year we chase the new shiny toys in hopes we find the next Beckham or Zeke, but we're let down more often than not. I know there are studies and articles out there about hit rates, percentages for each pick and all that jazz. What I would like to know is how it effected your league.

1) How often have you found that acquiring multiple first round picks actually works out?
2) In general, would you rather use your rookie pick to try and hit on a player, or would you rather trade it for current production knowing you might give up the next big thing?
3) How have teams in your league faired that have adopted the "rookie picks are better assets to trade then actually use" strategy?
4) How have teams in your league faired that blew it up and tried to rebuild through the draft?

Any insight is appreciated. Answer as many or few as you'd like.

Good post that should have a variety of different answers and opinions.

I'll start by saying that as an owner, you generally have your own approach when it comes to building your roster. Some guys love rookie picks, whereas some guys hate picks. Some guys like to blow it up and build through the draft, and some guys like to trade for production. I don't really think there is a right or wrong answer because I have seen both become successful.

For me personally, I build my teams from the ground up and the safest way to do that is with youth in mind because their value is insulated for a couple of years (for the most part).

1. I obviously have a small sample size, but acquiring multiple picks has worked out for me personally more often then not. However, 2014 probably played a pretty big part (started playing dynasty 6 years ago). And most of the data is still ongoing since a bigger portion of my leagues were created post 2014 and are still growing. There are some leagues where the rebuilding has taken longer because the league as a whole is pretty dead with little trade activity. Getting future picks is hard to do and it makes the rebuild harder, especially when you draft guys like Devante Parker, Kevin White, Breshard Perriman, Josh Doctson and the list goes on and on. It just goes to show you that picks do bust so when you rebuild through the draft, it can take longer then expected because of the misses that will occur.

2. I think this is really team dependent. If my team is building and growing, I'll almost always prefer the pick. However, some of my more stacked teams, I'll look to trade my picks for more proven assets. As much as I love a guy like Corey Davis, if he's my 7th WR, I'd much rather package up the pick and another piece or two and get a Zeke or Cooper type player and consolidate that way.

3. The main thing to note is that rookie picks are great assets because they are liquid. For the most part, everyone is in the market for a rookie pick. Not everyone is in the market for a guy like DT or Marshawn Lynch. I don't really think I've ever seen someone acquire picks for value to only trade them for proven assets, although it is certainly something that has crossed my mind. I think the main reason why I haven't done it is simply because it is fun building your team with the rookies. I'm in leagues where I've had 6+ 1sts and you could theoretically build a really solid team by selling those pieces, but again, I haven't seen it in action although in theory it seems like a decent strategy.

4. I've built some championship winning teams in just a couple of years that will be stacked for a while. Again some of it is due to 2014 since I have OBJ, Evans, and Cooks on a lot of my rosters. But, I have a lot of teams that are just on the cusp on competing after building through this years class.

Ultimately, the championship teams I've seen over the years the owner is generally one of the most active and makes a decent amount of trades. They also take advantage of poor owners and know the leaguemates pretty well to allow them to do it. Like I said, different approaches and strategies work, at the end of the day if you are a savvy owner you will be on the winning side more often then not regardless of how you treat rookies.

[schiewerma21]

Good question. I have been excellent in rookie drafts so I believe in rookies a lot.

I started in 2013 with two teams. One was an orphan one was a fresh startup.
My main league (sig1) was a startup with all my closest buddies who had been playing in keeper leagues forever, I have had a massive advantage out of the gate drafting leveon bell, Hopkins and Eddie lacy out of that class. Those were the only three rookies I took. Lacy was my most expensive player (did an auction) in that startup. I since have flipped him but he did extremely well his first 2 seasons for me.

With the orphan I inherited I tried loading up on the excellent 2014 class. Flipped a ton of players for picks and ended up with the following rookies. Watkins, cooks, sankey, freeman, Beckham, Adams, bridgewater and lee. Needless to say hit much more than I missed but when you have that many rookie picks you know you will miss somewhere.

In 2015 I had another startup. Team in sig 2. Didn't really like the class too much but had to have gurley and Winston. I also drafted ajayi and perrimen I believe as later fliers. Those were the four rookies I got from that group.

In 2016 I knew the class was awful. I had 0 picks in 2 leagues in the entire draft. In sig 2 I believe I had like a late second or 2. And then there was an awful rebuild I took the challenge on in sig 3.

I had to flip any win now assets I had (didn't have much and I'm talking easy flip guys this time last year like Lamar Miller) for picks this year and next. Traded Woodhead Greg Olson ryan Fitzpatrick (2qb) and miller to get some extra picks.
Ended up drafted dak Prescott at 4 overall despite being laughed at.. that worked out. Got henry at 2 Coleman and treadwell (didn't like either) but at 1.07 and 1.08 they presented too much of a value.

I obviously have loaded up on this group as it's the best since 2014. You just need to watch film and know what to look for. Also understand production. I wrote ju ju smith schuster off after a 1 catch for 9 yard game against Alabama for the first game of the year. It wasn't just his stats it's simply he isn't good enough to beat pro ready corners.
I also like to see steady production and breakout age. I hated Kevin white because here is this 23 year old beating up on 19 year olds. It wasn't going to last.

At wr the number one thing you want is crisp route running combined with seperation. Guys like Brandin cooks, Odell Beckham, amari cooper and this year corey Davis do this with ease.
aviod small guys. Dede Westbrook is never going to be a thing. The best small guy is Brandin cooks. And he was an absolute monster in every other area.
Avoid guys who aren't productive. You know why perrimen sucks? Cause that clown never had more than 50 catches and his qb was Blake bortles! He was doomed from day one. Same with Phillip Dorsett.

At rb size is key. Sankey taught me to avoid guys less than 210. If you are under 210 I don't want you. Freeman has been the only exception to this rule since I have started playing dynasty. And that's because he's extremely built in his lower half.
Also at rb look for patience and vision. Bell was a much bigger back but still had excellent vision coming out of college.
Athleticsm also takes a little more importance at rb than most positions. You need to seperate tiers into two categories .220 and under and 220 and over. I have different criterias for both sizes.

There is a ton more that goes into this but listen to my podcast between the 20s. And follow me on twitter. I promise your hit rate on rookies will go up substantially if you do. Rookies have made my dynasty teams extremely successful over the years.

[schiewerma21]

Finally I am taking the rookie over the vet almost every time if it fits into my certain tier. Always be tiering a class to how they fit in with the current stars of the NFL.

My top 3 this year of fournette Mixon and Davis those three picks are all in my top 15 players overall before they step on the field.

They will be on everyone else's this time next year as well.

[Kcarr]

Rookie fever is a thing. We all know it. Every year we chase the new shiny toys in hopes we find the next Beckham or Zeke, but we're let down more often than not. I know there are studies and articles out there about hit rates, percentages for each pick and all that jazz. What I would like to know is how it effected your league.

1) How often have you found that acquiring multiple first round picks actually works out?
Going into my 2nd year of rookie drafts so pretty short history. Last year I had acquired some extra ammo which allowed me to move up and take zeke so that worked out. I also had a later first though. I traded it before the draft figuring Thomas and treadwell, the only two other first round rookies I had desire to draft would be gone. It turned out not everyone liked Thomas as much as me and he would have fallen to me so should have waited, especially seeing how he turned out. In another league I own 4 firsts this year though along with what I feel is a good core of young talent so I will let you know in a year or two.

2) In general, would you rather use your rookie pick to try and hit on a player, or would you rather trade it for current production knowing you might give up the next big thing?
I think this depends on team situation and how I feel about the rookies available. I have found picks tend to hold the upside advantage while vets are safer but that safety shrinks quite a bit once you get to guys worth less than the 1.04 or so so if I am trading picks I want to package up for a stud or find someone I like a lot more than consensus

3) How have teams in your league faired that have adopted the "rookie picks are better assets to trade then actually use" strategy?
The only team that didn't pick in the first last year had traded it for charcandrick west and then he was replaced by ware. The west trade did lead to him signing ware though so some silver lining but still not great.

4) How have teams in your league faired that blew it up and tried to rebuild through the draft?
Well, with just last year's draft it is tough to judge. I made the most moves and went from right outside the playoffs to losing the championship because week 15 when ours is my entire team decided not to show up. Week 16 we had the top score in the league I think but 15 we did nothing

Any insight is appreciated. Answer as many or few as you'd like.

[DLF3000]

I know one team in my league is always collecting extra seconds, like they're gold, not realizing they're mostly worthless crap.

But every offseason without fail, he gives away proven players for said worthless crap. DeShaun Watson is the latest hilarious use of his new, shiny, extra 2nd. Now if I had Luck like he has, I'm pretty sure that'd be hard pass for me and 90% of the world!

So essentially... David Carr for Watson and a 3rd. It'd be more funny if it wasn't so horrible.

Maybe these GMs should not be allowed to own dynasty teams?

[DLF3000]

As for "rebuilding through the draft," lopsided trades are the fastest, easiest way I've seen in my league (and most leagues).

Why do it the hard, long way when you can fleece people - often, that one guy - over and over?

I'm attempting to rebuild through the draft now I suppose, having just given up on the "old guard" of my team for a few extra picks. So TBD there - I'd have a lot more confidence in this working if there weren't a bunch of horrible, swingy trades every year.

But like one of my leaguemates said, if you can't beat them, you almost have to join them. Or, like I added, just move on.

[KenAndTonic]

I like to use my existing picks in order to maintain a constant base of young talent for future growth, but generally I am not looking to acquire additional picks through trade and possibly sell off a mid-rounder or two as a complimentary piece of a larger trade. Rarely will I trade away my first rounder for unless it's too good of a trade to pass on.

[Servo]

Without question, rookie fever/sensation is legitimate and it's a fun time for dynasty leagues.

This past year, in my 2QB rebuild, I had 6 or 7 picks in the top 25 and instead of doing the right thing and possibly trading to my advantage....I opted to stand pat with a lot of my picks and I felt like I had a really great draft but I guess we won't know for certain until 2018 or 2019.

Entering the draft, I was severely weak at QB and RB and I think the reason I stood with my picks was to create depth within my roster. I was offered trades to acquire guys like Garrapolo and Flacco but when both Trubisky and Watson fell into the early 2nd round, I pounced. And I saw guys fall who I really liked.

The idea of injecting fresh life into your roster is the concept people most get excited about with rookies but obviously not every rookie is going to come in and play/contribute/ascend to stardom and that's the difficult thing to try and talk yourself out of.

1.03 Mixon
2.01 Ross
2.02 Trubisky
2.03 Watson
2.08 Foreman
3.03 Samuel
4.03 McNichols
4.05 Kupp
5.03 Jonnu Smith
6.03 Hansen

[DJB]

Without question, rookie fever/sensation is legitimate and it's a fun time for dynasty leagues.

This past year, in my 2QB rebuild, I had 6 or 7 picks in the top 25 and instead of doing the right thing and possibly trading to my advantage....I opted to stand pat with a lot of my picks and I felt like I had a really great draft but I guess we won't know for certain until 2018 or 2019.

Entering the draft, I was severely weak at QB and RB and I think the reason I stood with my picks was to create depth within my roster. I was offered trades to acquire guys like Garrapolo and Flacco but when both Trubisky and Watson fell into the early 2nd round, I pounced. And I saw guys fall who I really liked.

The idea of injecting fresh life into your roster is the concept people most get excited about with rookies but obviously not every rookie is going to come in and play/contribute/ascend to stardom and that's the difficult thing to try and talk yourself out of.

1.03 Mixon
2.01 Ross
2.02 Trubisky
2.03 Watson
2.08 Foreman
3.03 Samuel
4.03 McNichols
4.05 Kupp
5.03 Jonnu Smith
6.03 Hansen

Curious where Mahomes and Kizer were picked in your 2 Qb league. My 2 Qb league doesn't draft until later but i expect all 4 guys chosen by 2. 03 amd the first 3 all gone by about 1. 08.

[Vcize]

I know one team in my league is always collecting extra seconds, like they're gold, not realizing they're mostly worthless crap.

But every offseason without fail, he gives away proven players for said worthless crap. DeShaun Watson is the latest hilarious use of his new, shiny, extra 2nd. Now if I had Luck like he has, I'm pretty sure that'd be hard pass for me and 90% of the world!

So essentially... David Carr for Watson and a 3rd. It'd be more funny if it wasn't so horrible.

Maybe these GMs should not be allowed to own dynasty teams?

I'd be interesting in seeing a complete list of the guys traded away and the guys the picks were used on.

The thing that people overlook in getting caught up with all the 2nd round busts is that the majority of players that will only fetch a 2nd round pick back in trade have a really high bust rate as well.

[Servo]

Curious where Mahomes and Kizer were picked in your 2 Qb league. My 2 Qb league doesn't draft until later but i expect all 4 guys chosen by 2. 03 amd the first 3 all gone by about 1. 08.

1.08 Mahomes
3.05 Kizer

[maxhyde]

I have rebuilt in both methods and by far the more successful was buying established players or players about to be established and giving up picks to upgrade. Figure even 50% of your picks (1st/2nd) bust. Lets be honest probably higher % than that but lets say you are a spectacular drafter and beat the odds by a good margin. That means you are stuck with 2-3 good players and 2-3 guys about to clog your roster. The next year you combine those 4-6 players (who still have some value being high draft picks) with this years picks assuming you accumulated 1 or 2 extra in your continued rebuild and land McCoy/Gurley/DT/Watkins. Some will argue you acquired busts in Gurley and Watkins but they are proven players that will only not start if they are hurt. You are no longer rebuilding because you have a set of capable enough starters with assured roles as primary options for their teams. Even with a marginal option at QB/TE you should have a competitive enough team to get into the playoffs and if any one of your buy low guys (Watkins/Gurley) produce elite seasons you may win it all
I think it would be league specific but seems to me buying young guys you know can produce is a fast safe option to rebuild and don't moving your future picks so you can keep some potential youth in the pipeline. Trade the futures if the deal is too good to pass up but definitely not trading your future 1st or 2nd for the latest summer camp hype train or future no. 1 WR that breaks through from obscurity (Meredith/TyWilliams) counting on them being a locked in starter...buy established age declined DT/Jordy instead

[Tsunami]

I almost always trade away all my picks. If there's a rookie that I want I can (sometimes) pick them up later. People will pay for the premium of getting to pick their guy, but in my experience they soon tire of him, especially if they aren't playing well out of the box. I picked up OBJ mid-season when he was an injured rookie, I didn't have to draft him myself. In one league I think I ended up owning 6 of the top 15 rookies even though I didn't draft any of them myself. And you can now own some of last season's top picks very cheaply, trade your 2017 2nd for Treadwell and if you don't get excited by the prospect anymore just convince yourself it's 2016. Why doesn't Doctson or Parker (or Kevin White) have more potential than Mike Williams?

And why do people even draft TEs?

[MEuRaH]

I did a study on this several months ago. Let's define a "stud" player as a player who is worth multiple early 1sts during the primes of their careers (obj, Dez, AJG, etc).

Based on a 17 year history that I've compiled (not including the past 3 years), you have ~42% chance of drafting a stud in the 1-3 spots, ~21% chance in spots 4-6, and then into the single digits after that.

So let's say you have OBJ and not much else. Someone offers you the 1.01, 1.03, and 1.06 picks for OBJ. What do you do? OBJ is indeed a stud, so you are locked in at 1 stud player if you keep him.

You have ~26.5% chance that you don't get a single stud back in return. Breaking even is ~45.5% chance. Coming out ahead is ~28% chance.

There are also other factors, like how deep you consider the draft class to be and what the tiers are. A really good-looking draft class (2014) will help increase these odds, while a really poor draft class (2005) will decrease these odds. Most draft classes are around this 2017 class, so I consider my estimates to be roughly accurate to what you can expect in terms of compensation given the hypothetical scenario I described above.