Hahaclintondix wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:27 pm
Rookie fever is a thing. We all know it. Every year we chase the new shiny toys in hopes we find the next Beckham or Zeke, but we're let down more often than not. I know there are studies and articles out there about hit rates, percentages for each pick and all that jazz. What I would like to know is how it effected your league.
1) How often have you found that acquiring multiple first round picks actually works out?
2) In general, would you rather use your rookie pick to try and hit on a player, or would you rather trade it for current production knowing you might give up the next big thing?
3) How have teams in your league faired that have adopted the "rookie picks are better assets to trade then actually use" strategy?
4) How have teams in your league faired that blew it up and tried to rebuild through the draft?
Any insight is appreciated. Answer as many or few as you'd like.
1. There is no magic recipe or formula here other then more 1st round picks increases your odds but every year is completely different where some are better then others to hord picks so my advice would be to learn about the draft and understand all drafts for skill position players are not created equal. Are some drafts deep, weak, strong, what positions? Is there a sweet spot? Some years 2 late 1st beats one top 3 pick, others you'd prefer one elite pick. Some years the 2nd round is loaded.
I remember that 2014 draft class I knew that the 2nd round was a sweet spot for WRs unlike I can remember. Martavis Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, were all 2nd round picks that year in fantasy give or take. Now granted the 1st round was stacked too, but that was incredible value on 2nd round players who had immense upside. Learn info like that prior so you can turn a 1.10 pick into maybe a 2.3 and 2.6, or 1.10 into 2.6 and a future 1st. Every year rookie fever is put of control but that year offered value for potential #1 WRs at a discount. Even at the time it was clear the upside of a guy like Robinson would be a mid to late 1st any other year. Just realize 2014 is an anomaly so trading for a ton of picks every year won't render these same results.
2. Every year is different. Some years I am fine with trading it away, others I want it. It's never set in stone for a method to go with. Also what situation is your team in? That matters. Do you need a starter or can you build depth behind a 31 year old starter. My best advice is to always seek out options and don't put yourself into a box. I always look into trade ups, trade downs, trade outs for a vet, just to see because you never know until you shop around. I've seen a ton of people trade away a late 1st for a current 2nd and a 1st next year. Those type of deals if done enough really put your team ahead by being patient if you aren't in love with any options. Also, always explore young studs who haven't broken out yet but have potential to. Davante Parker is my favorite "trade a 1st for him" player. You skip right past all the developmental years of solid play that someone let him simmer for, and you have seen him on film against NFL players before. Why is John Ross a better pick because he's a rookie? Melvin Gordon last off season, he had 600 rushing yards and a 3.5ypc with a big fat zero rushing TDs. How many people would have been ready to jump ship for another first and a new shiny toy at TH? Now he's easily a top 10 RB, a feature back who had 1400 yards, 41 catches, and 12 TDs. At LEAST look into these players because not every rookie comes out like a pro bowler and you can often get discounts on guys who are just as talented as the incoming rookies.
3. Not sure because everyone is different and learning your league mates personalities will better suit you. Some guys love youth and picks, some love vets and factor proven and winning, some love to trade, some love draft picks, etc. Nobody I know uses this method 100%, but there will never be a set answer because it changes based off the draft. The guy who horses picks for WRs in 2014 cleaned up, that exact same method another year blows up. I like to balance it between both. My ideal method is try to find young starters with a window of 4 years I can start every season and be competitive and not need to replace anyone, so my picks are all bonus. If you have a 34 year old TE, or a 32 year old WR, or a 29 year old RB you really need to hit on those. I like to manage it so if I miss it doesn't matter as much and I still have my core. Obviously it doesn't always work, as I'm not trading Lesean McCoy for a 3rd just to be young but that's still my objective.
4. Again subjective based on the year they did it. I took over one team this year that I blew up and my WRs I'm starting will be Devante Parker, Josh Doctson, and Martavis Bryant. I have three 1st and three 2nds next year. I won't know if I'll use all those next year until it gets here but I'll be open to packaging them for 1 stud, moving them out to 2019, or trading for a player. I'm doing a disservice to my team being tunnel focused. Sometimes I put my pick on the clock up for trade and see what I get and who will throw me something. No way Of be locked in to pick a rookie with every pick because odds are if I took 6 rookies there 2 might end up valuable starters. When it was Julio and AJG up top I paid and packaged everything to get one. Those guys don't come alone often though.
