Sell me on Rob Kelley

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crisdecamposmd
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby crisdecamposmd » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:46 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:40 pm
crisdecamposmd wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:22 am This belief is so common it blows me away. I watch him and think what does he NOT do well? If you were to make one wish to get from a RB it would be 2-5 yards without fumbling every single time you touch the ball. He averaged 4.2 in his first year playing RB since High School... Consistently turned negative plays into 4 yard gains... and never fumbled. He's big enough to be an every down back and to be a good blocker. And if you haven't watched him he has some of the quickest feet of any 233 pound player I've ever seen. Oh, and to top that off he went from 18% to 12% body fat and from 228 lbs to 233 since last season, so he may be even quicker.
Kelley is solid at doing the bare minimum. He runs hard, he consistently gains positive yardage and he doesn't fumble. Coaches like RB's who can do that, but they are ultimately replaceable skills. Hats off to him for making the most of his opportunity, but if Kelley was a free agent, no NFL team would sign him to be their starter. He's an average talent at best, who's being boosted by situation. Maybe he can give you cheap RB2 production this season, but will he be a long-term starter anywhere? I just don't see it.

Perhaps. I guess my philosophy is to have an RB that does exactly that. I don't care much about having an RB that can take it 99 yards 4 times a year when it means not moving the ball forward on 40% of the carries. Lacy, Lynch, guys like that... They get the tough yards. I'm not sure what Lacy's career average is, but Lynch's is 4.3 ypc... 0.1 more than what Kelley did last year. I think Cousins and the passing game will really flourish if they start getting more 2nd and 7s and 3rd and 3s, where really the whole playbook is available in those situations. And I think if people really consider the fact that he didn't even play RB in college... it's almost kind of mind-blowing how well he stepped in. I hope he does even better this year with a year of experience, better conditioning, and better receiving skills... But if not, I'll sure be happy I was able to grab Perine in my draft!

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby seahawks506 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:08 pm

crisdecamposmd wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:46 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:40 pm
crisdecamposmd wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:22 am This belief is so common it blows me away. I watch him and think what does he NOT do well? If you were to make one wish to get from a RB it would be 2-5 yards without fumbling every single time you touch the ball. He averaged 4.2 in his first year playing RB since High School... Consistently turned negative plays into 4 yard gains... and never fumbled. He's big enough to be an every down back and to be a good blocker. And if you haven't watched him he has some of the quickest feet of any 233 pound player I've ever seen. Oh, and to top that off he went from 18% to 12% body fat and from 228 lbs to 233 since last season, so he may be even quicker.
Kelley is solid at doing the bare minimum. He runs hard, he consistently gains positive yardage and he doesn't fumble. Coaches like RB's who can do that, but they are ultimately replaceable skills. Hats off to him for making the most of his opportunity, but if Kelley was a free agent, no NFL team would sign him to be their starter. He's an average talent at best, who's being boosted by situation. Maybe he can give you cheap RB2 production this season, but will he be a long-term starter anywhere? I just don't see it.

I don't care much about having an RB that can take it 99 yards 4 times a year when it means not moving the ball forward on 40% of the carries.
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stat ... tage/2016/

9.5% is hardly remarkable compared to the other backs with 150+ attempts, especially when that's one of your few supposed calling cards, and a few % difference doesn't matter at all either way when you're a terrible athlete with little versatility. Being the 2005 Honda civic of NFL running backs is nothing to be gloating about...
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:44 pm

crisdecamposmd wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:46 pm Perhaps. I guess my philosophy is to have an RB that does exactly that. I don't care much about having an RB that can take it 99 yards 4 times a year when it means not moving the ball forward on 40% of the carries. Lacy, Lynch, guys like that... They get the tough yards. I'm not sure what Lacy's career average is, but Lynch's is 4.3 ypc... 0.1 more than what Kelley did last year. I think Cousins and the passing game will really flourish if they start getting more 2nd and 7s and 3rd and 3s, where really the whole playbook is available in those situations. And I think if people really consider the fact that he didn't even play RB in college... it's almost kind of mind-blowing how well he stepped in. I hope he does even better this year with a year of experience, better conditioning, and better receiving skills... But if not, I'll sure be happy I was able to grab Perine in my draft!
Using the chart in the post above, Kelley was only stuffed on 9.5% of his runs. Matt Jones, who the Redskins have basically exiled, was only .06 higher at 10.1%. Kelley is solid at getting positive yardage, but he's not some league standout at it. He's a very replaceable RB in a great situation on a team with a very good offensive line (6th in adjusted line yards last season).

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby crisdecamposmd » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:29 pm

seahawks506 wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:08 pm
crisdecamposmd wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:46 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:40 pm

Kelley is solid at doing the bare minimum. He runs hard, he consistently gains positive yardage and he doesn't fumble. Coaches like RB's who can do that, but they are ultimately replaceable skills. Hats off to him for making the most of his opportunity, but if Kelley was a free agent, no NFL team would sign him to be their starter. He's an average talent at best, who's being boosted by situation. Maybe he can give you cheap RB2 production this season, but will he be a long-term starter anywhere? I just don't see it.

I don't care much about having an RB that can take it 99 yards 4 times a year when it means not moving the ball forward on 40% of the carries.
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stat ... tage/2016/

9.5% is hardly remarkable compared to the other backs with 150+ attempts, especially when that's one of your few supposed calling cards, and a few % difference doesn't matter at all either way when you're a terrible athlete with little versatility. Being the 2005 Honda civic of NFL running backs is nothing to be gloating about...
I actually find it to be important. Thanks for posting that.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby moishetreats » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:19 pm

Thanks again for all your comments. In the end, I made a trade. I don't love it (I still believe in Kelley), but I have a loaded roster; the added benefit of opening a roster spot for a rookie/free agent compelled me to accept.

I gave: Kelley
I received: 3.08 in 2017 and a 2nd-round pick (likely mid to late) in 2018
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby crisdecamposmd » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:46 pm

moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:19 pm Thanks again for all your comments. In the end, I made a trade. I don't love it (I still believe in Kelley), but I have a loaded roster; the added benefit of opening a roster spot for a rookie/free agent compelled me to accept.

I gave: Kelley
I received: 3.08 in 2017 and a 2nd-round pick (likely mid to late) in 2018
I hope it works out! I'm holding him for at least this year to see how it unfolds. But this is a good thing that recently popped up:

Forced missed tackles by rookie running backs in 2016 --

1- Jordan Howard - 40
2- Ezekiel Elliot - 36
3- Rob Kelley - 35

The thing that stands out, however, are the number of rushing attempts they had to get to these numbers.

1- Jordan Howard - 252
2- Ezekiel Elliot - 322
3- Rob Kelley - 168. -- So, if you increase his carries by 50% to get to 252... the projection for missed tackles would be 52... Impressive. And if you gave him Elliot's workload... you're around 65 forced missed tackles. Considering how much the coaching staff raves about Rob Kelley I think getting caught up on the Perine hype train (I do own him as a handcuff) is a mistake, and Kelley can easily become what Lacy was when he was good and on a high scoring offense a few years ago. Which will be worth a top 5 pick next year.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby kadun2 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:18 pm

crisdecamposmd wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:46 pm
moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:19 pm Thanks again for all your comments. In the end, I made a trade. I don't love it (I still believe in Kelley), but I have a loaded roster; the added benefit of opening a roster spot for a rookie/free agent compelled me to accept.

I gave: Kelley
I received: 3.08 in 2017 and a 2nd-round pick (likely mid to late) in 2018
I hope it works out! I'm holding him for at least this year to see how it unfolds. But this is a good thing that recently popped up:

Forced missed tackles by rookie running backs in 2016 --

1- Jordan Howard - 40
2- Ezekiel Elliot - 36
3- Rob Kelley - 35

The thing that stands out, however, are the number of rushing attempts they had to get to these numbers.

1- Jordan Howard - 252
2- Ezekiel Elliot - 322
3- Rob Kelley - 168. -- So, if you increase his carries by 50% to get to 252... the projection for missed tackles would be 52... Impressive. And if you gave him Elliot's workload... you're around 65 forced missed tackles. Considering how much the coaching staff raves about Rob Kelley I think getting caught up on the Perine hype train (I do own him as a handcuff) is a mistake, and Kelley can easily become what Lacy was when he was good and on a high scoring offense a few years ago. Which will be worth a top 5 pick next year.
^ These are good points backed up by number facts.
I think in the end it's all up to fat Rob and it sounds like he's motivated to hold off Perine. When watching Perine tape though it's going to be tough...

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby ericanadian » Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:09 pm

Broken tackles just mean dude is getting hit a lot to me and aren't necessarily a good thing. A lot was made of TRich's broken tackles when people still wanted to believe, but it's certainly not an area where volume is undisputedly a good thing. That said, Kelley is more efficient than TRich and I would expect he has lower expectations.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby moishetreats » Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:12 pm

Yeah, I agree with you @Cris. I really don't love my trade, but I did need to make a move (and still need to make another or two) to accommodate my incoming picks. In the end, it's really the picks that I got plus the ability to drop a lesser player for a roster spot than someone that I would rather keep.

Unfortunately, as a fan of Kelley's, I want to root for him. Now, though, I have to root against him... :(
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby StableOfRBs » Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:58 pm

ericanadian wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:09 pm Broken tackles just mean dude is getting hit a lot to me and aren't necessarily a good thing. A lot was made of TRich's broken tackles when people still wanted to believe, but it's certainly not an area where volume is undisputedly a good thing. That said, Kelley is more efficient than TRich and I would expect he has lower expectations.
those aren't broken tackles, those are forced misses, means he's actively making people miss him completely
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https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/13740#1

Marvel vs. DC League - Lords of Order - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1SFlex/2Flex/1DT/2DE/3LB/1CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/58114#1

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby ericanadian » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:00 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:58 pm
ericanadian wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:09 pm Broken tackles just mean dude is getting hit a lot to me and aren't necessarily a good thing. A lot was made of TRich's broken tackles when people still wanted to believe, but it's certainly not an area where volume is undisputedly a good thing. That said, Kelley is more efficient than TRich and I would expect he has lower expectations.
those aren't broken tackles, those are forced misses, means he's actively making people miss him completely
Definition from PFF
There is a lot more to carrying the ball than just forcing missed tackles, but it is undoubtedly an important factor and can really separate the level of play among running backs. Missed tackles will come in different forms, Whether it is a juke move that avoids contact all together, breaking an arm tackle, or a ‘truck stick’ that bowls over a defender, all are considered missed tackles. The one type of player that can occasionally be at a disadvantage are pure speed backs because there just is not a number to track for beating a defender to space with speed to gain additional yardage in terms of Elusive Rating.
Maybe you read it differently than I do, but when a "truck stick" and "breaking an arm tackle" are considered a "forced miss" how do you differentiate between a broken tackle and a forced miss? I doubt Kelley is picking up much from jukes.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby _yeti » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:58 pm

crisdecamposmd wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:46 pm Considering how much the coaching staff raves about Rob Kelley I think getting caught up on the Perine hype train (I do own him as a handcuff) is a mistake, and Kelley can easily become what Lacy was when he was good and on a high scoring offense a few years ago. Which will be worth a top 5 pick next year.
Think this is the first time I have heard Perine described as a handcuff to Kelley. Kelley being worth a top 5 pick next year is the most delusional thing I have ever heard. This is what's wrong with just trying to extrapolate from stats in small samples, reminds me of when I was battling everyone who thought Rawls rookie year 5.6 YPC justified a top 10 ranking and meant he would be a 3-down back in Seattle.
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby StableOfRBs » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:53 pm

_yeti wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:58 pm
crisdecamposmd wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:46 pm Considering how much the coaching staff raves about Rob Kelley I think getting caught up on the Perine hype train (I do own him as a handcuff) is a mistake, and Kelley can easily become what Lacy was when he was good and on a high scoring offense a few years ago. Which will be worth a top 5 pick next year.
Think this is the first time I have heard Perine described as a handcuff to Kelley. Kelley being worth a top 5 pick next year is the most delusional thing I have ever heard. This is what's wrong with just trying to extrapolate from stats in small samples, reminds me of when I was battling everyone who thought Rawls rookie year 5.6 YPC justified a top 10 ranking and meant he would be a 3-down back in Seattle.
As someone who owns Kelley I've considered buying Perine as the handcuff so I could have a monopoly on the backfield but I'd have to pay starter prices, which I'm not doing, don't see Kelley worth a top 5 pick but I do see him hanging onto the starting job simply because I don't think he'll do anything to lose it, shy of some catastrophic injury
Greek Mythology League - Heracles - 2QB/3RB/4WR/2TE/2Flex/2DT/2DE/4LB/2CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/13740#1

Marvel vs. DC League - Lords of Order - 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1SFlex/2Flex/1DT/2DE/3LB/1CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/58114#1

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby tstafford » Mon Jul 03, 2017 2:59 pm

My bet is Chris Thompson outscores both Kelley and Perine for total year PPR points. Thompson will have 8 points per game +/- 2 pts each week making him utterly useless. The other two will each have a couple of weeks that are great making them terrible weekly options and possibly okay best ball options depending on ADP.

I own Kelley in one league where I picked him up off the WW. I also happened to end up with Perine in that league. I'll see what happens and likely end up cutting Kelley at some point next season. I think Kelley is worth more to the Perine owner (in this case me) than to anyone else so I don't see much likelihood of trading him.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby sloth8u » Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:08 pm

moishetreats wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:12 pm Yeah, I agree with you @Cris. I really don't love my trade, but I did need to make a move (and still need to make another or two) to accommodate my incoming picks. In the end, it's really the picks that I got plus the ability to drop a lesser player for a roster spot than someone that I would rather keep.

Unfortunately, as a fan of Kelley's, I want to root for him. Now, though, I have to root against him... :(
great post!!! this is ultimately what makes dynasty leagues great. most of my leagues have been going for a few years...owners have to cut or trade to accomodate picks... i think you sold for the going rate in most instances.


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