How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

[DLF3000]

So what's the best way to recover from or avoid huge high-1st or mid-1st RB bust picks?

These basically go from high-promise, important pieces on your team to fringe/cuttable/out-of-league "talents" in the blink of an eye.

Are you just doomed to trade roster cloggers like Yeldon for almost nothing, or even cut him? What about this year's Mixon or Cook or even Hunt lately in that mid-1st area?

I wish I had a contingency plan if Yeldon turned out to be a collossal bust at 1.06 when I took him. Tried trading out first, but couldn't, so here we are: Yeldon, 1st Round RB to Roster Clogger Just Like That.

I've busted d a metric ton of RBs in Round 1 over the years in dynasty (like a quite a few of us, I'm sure) so I'm pretty desperate for some solid advice - that position slays me, so clearly, I'm missing something!

[Cameron Giles]

The best way to maximize any rookie pick is usually to trade them for proven players. Mizzelle's ADP showed a history of the past five draft classes and the majority of players taken in the Top 25 never saw their value become higher than it was when they were selected. Otherwise, you're going to end up selling for less very soon. Yeldon had a Top-5 round ADP, so everyone should definitely think of the possibility that a player they're selecting is peaking in value on draft day.

It's easier said than done, because each first round pick won't equal the trade value of a quality veteran or a young player who's already flashed. But, if you can't swap them straight up, you should package them.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=141349

Not only can you avoid 1st round RB busts but you can yell at me too. It's a win-win for the user.

[DLF3000]

The best way to maximize any rookie pick is usually to trade them for proven players.

It's easier said than done, because each first round pick won't equal the trade value of a quality veteran or a young player who's already flashed. But, if you can't swap them straight up, you should package them.

Ironically, only the 2nd time I ever traded my 1st was last year's, for Matt Forte. He was awesome for me last year... for the first two games. Thought I had a 'ship run in me last year, and it didn't happen.

The other time I ever traded a 1st was for Victor Cruz during his last good year. The first game I had him on my team, he went OFF!! After that though, that injury of his pretty much destroyed his career.

So maybe this is why we'll happily take those mid-1st rookie RBs anyway - because maybe the reality is you can trade for strong vets you can trust... and still lose!

[Servo]

Taking an RB is just risky business in general, especially with how easy they can be replaced/come down with injury.

This past year I went with Kevin Cole's and Rotoviz's analysis on the RB position and because of it, I have been adding as many of these guys as possible. I don't scout RBs and their work has proven beneficial in the past and I opted to just go with it

Going by their analysis they would have told you to think twice about guys like Yeldon, Abdullah, etc.:

RB.jpg (95.81 KiB) Viewed 1091 times

[Cameron Giles]

The best way to maximize any rookie pick is usually to trade them for proven players.

It's easier said than done, because each first round pick won't equal the trade value of a quality veteran or a young player who's already flashed. But, if you can't swap them straight up, you should package them.

Ironically, only the 2nd time I ever traded my 1st was last year's, for Matt Forte. He was awesome for me last year... for the first two games. Thought I had a 'ship run in me last year, and it didn't happen.

The other time I ever traded a 1st was for Victor Cruz during his last good year. The first game I had him on my team, he went OFF!! After that though, that injury of his pretty much destroyed his career.

So maybe this is why we'll happily take those mid-1st rookie RBs anyway - because maybe the reality is you can trade for strong vets you can trust... and still lose!

It's bad luck, but history will continue to show that you're better off trading picks for players who've already done it (or are about to) rather than not. Sure, someone will bring up the 2014 class, but that class is the exception and not the rule for draft success.

At some point, somebody could've got something really good for any combination of Dorial Green-Beckham, T.J. Yeldon and Nelson Agholor. Today? Well..

[Cameron Giles]

Taking an RB is just risky business in general, especially with how easy they can be replaced/come down with injury.

This past year I went with Kevin Cole's and Rotoviz's analysis on the RB position and because of it, I have been adding as many of these guys as possible. I don't scout RBs and their work has proven beneficial in the past and I opted to just go with it

Going by their analysis they would have told you to think twice about guys like Yeldon, Abdullah, etc.:

RB.jpg

Every website has their own RB model now. They're all interesting, and if there's a link between each formula, it's especially useful. However, an individual one still won't give you great results. Going strictly by this model, most people would have avoided Jordan Howard (.04 prediction).

[sms]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=141349

Not only can you avoid 1st round RB busts but you can yell at me too. It's a win-win for the user.

I read your theory. Thanks for all the work and sharing it.

[drbuttermaker]

The only sure-fire way to avoid drafting a RB bust is to not draft a RB.

Short of that, all you can do is minimize the risk as best you can by avoiding players with red flags (e.g. Mixon).

[Servo]

Every website has their own RB model now. They're all interesting, and if there's a link between each formula, it's especially useful. However, an individual one still won't give you great results. Going strictly by this model, most people would have avoided Jordan Howard (.04 prediction).

True, Rotoviz's was my favorite that I have seen as it adds a few more components than Kevin Cole's (couldn't get it to save and post as a picture ).

I used Cole's more as a cross-reference, maybe I should have stated that initially.

[DLF3000]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=141349

Not only can you avoid 1st round RB busts but you can yell at me too. It's a win-win for the user.

I read your theory. Thanks for all the work and sharing it.

Yep, me too - love it! Had seen it earlier this month, helped me decide to draft Foreman at 2.08.

That and I still favor big backs, even though they seem to blow more often than not these days while those annoying "pure PPR" backs make me want to hurl. Ooo, big deal, you caught a bunch of wide open passes 3 yards from the QB behind the line, wow!

Happy I'm not alone on the pain and suffering of constantly busting on 'backs!

[DLF3000]

The only sure-fire way to avoid drafting a RB bust is to not draft a RB.

You know, that's not a bad idea... I think I'll try that!

Zero RB 2.0 it is.

[KenAndTonic]

I agree with trying to trade the pick, especially if you are in rebuilding mode and need that established player in the middle of your lineup to build around. I think most people would find that counter intuitive, but as you say, putting too much hope in any draft pick is risky business. I'd rather have the known quantity and focus the rest of my draft/team building efforts on other positions.

If you do have a reasonably competitive team, my best advice is to go into the draft focusing on only 1 or 2 key positions at most and really hitting those positions hard. If you're looking for that future RB1 or 2, don't be afraid to go RB with your first 3 or 4 picks and hope one of them pans out. If 2 of my draft picks are still on my roster at the beginning of next season and I feel reasonably good about them, I consider that a successful draft.

[BuckeyeNation]

The only sure-fire way to avoid drafting a RB bust is to not draft a RB.

Short of that, all you can do is minimize the risk as best you can by avoiding players with red flags (e.g. Mixon).

Yeah, just not drafting them is the only way to avoid them. Short of that, sell them after their rookie season. Yeah there are some rookies here and there that lose a ton of value after year one, but for the most part the allure of their upside maintains their value for at least 2 seasons.

Another way to avoid busts is to shy away from players who's rookie draft position skyrocketed on situation alone. If a player was viewed as a rookie in the 15-25 range and all of a sudden be becomes a top 6-8 pick based solely on where he landed, he's more than likely someone to avoid. Don't get me wrong, situation matters, but I'll gamble on "situation" players with later rookie picks instead of early ones.

[Weeman]

I'd say know when to sell. An owner in my league sold Matt Jones right around the time blurps were coming up his role was diminished. He packaged him but it was a smart decision.

If your team needs a high rookie pick to be special out of the gate. Then trade for a veteran, someone will alway be acquired for cheap. The expectations for rookies has gone through the roof.

If you as an owner would rather a safe prospect at RB. Then take that rookie pick & go after the ppr backs. Riddick, Duke, CThompson, Woodhead type backs shouldn't be too difficult to acquire.

Talent over situation. Mack & Perine are fantastic players & each offer upside. But Kamara was firmly ranked higher by many. Kamara could be a special 3-down back or valuable ppr back. But many people see path to playing time more valuable. This decision to me depends on your roster depth & team needs.

There is no reason to ever be left holding a pile of dirt. You have to be active & aware of these things.