How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby M-Dub » Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:46 am

Vcize wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:00 am
M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:01 am
drbuttermaker wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:47 pm If your strategy is accepting such a high risk, more power to you, but the topic at hand is how to avoid first round busts. A person trying to do that does not draft Joe Mixon.
I understand the topic at hand. My point was that all first round picks have the potential to bust. I'm just more confident in Mixon not punching another girl than I am in, say, CMac bulking up to a 220 pound bellcow and Rivera suddenly incorporating his RB into the passing game.
Again, Mixon punching another girl is not his only risk. There's still a fairly sizable risk that he's not a good NFL running back, or not a workhorse NFL RB, or not a between the tackles NFL player. All of these things would have been getting more publicity if there weren't such a big dramatic story about him overshadowing it all. It's a trap to assume that his off the field issues are his only risk.
Okay, I'll bite. What are Mixon's football-related red flags? You keep vaguely referencing them, but fail to cite any specific examples like I did with Lenny, CMC and Cook. If it's just "well, he could turn out to be not good at football," that just goes back to my point that ALL rookies are unproven until they aren't and carry some degree of risk. But on paper and on tape, Mixon at least appears to be the most complete back in this class, and he also landed in one of the best possible spots in terms of rushing volume over the past several years. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be successful. My only issue was that it seems disingenuous to label him as somehow riskier than the other three top backs in this class when they all have their fair share of concerns.

maxhyde wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:44 amRight. Violence against women isn't an attitude/character trait just a one off encounter...again and again
CMac doesn't need to be 220. He wrecked college at his weight so might be best to try to be the same player at the next level
I think it's important to keep context in mind when it comes to Mixon's off-field incident. He didn't rough up his wife/girlfriend or beat his child with a tree branch. A drunken, belligerent stranger called him the n-word to his face and he snapped. That strikes me as something that's more likely to be an isolated incident rather than an indication of a pattern of abusive behavior. To paraphrase Chris Rock, I'm not saying he should've punched her... but I understand.

As far as CMac goes, there are way more undersized players who lit it up in college and couldn't hang at the NFL level than ones who succeeded. But hey, maybe he's the next Jamaal Charles. If you think that's a safer bet than a more prototypically-sized three-down back who hit a girl once, then it just comes down to a difference of opinion on how we each weigh risk vs. potential. Neither of us can be decisively right or wrong on this for another 3-4 years, so we'll just have to agree to disagree for now.
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QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer

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$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0

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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby M-Dub » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:02 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:10 am Yeah, I like Mixon but he didn't even have the most carries on his own team. That should be a giant red flag to whomever thinks he's the next DJ or Bell. I think it's easier for people to say "he's the best RB in the class if it weren't for his character concerns" because it gives them an out both ways. If he turns out great they say see I told you! And if he turns out to be not so great they can say see I told you! It's a giant cop out.
Now that's at least a valid, specific criticism. As the resident Mixon truther in this thread, I'd counter that that has more to do with Perine also being really good than Mixon being bad. Derrick Henry didn't have the most carries on his own team last year either, but most would still prefer him to Murray.

Not sure I follow the logic on your second point, though. If Mixon turns out to simply be bad at football, how would I be able to resort to an "I told you so" excuse? I expect to be eating a shitload of crow if that turns out to be the case.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties

🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer

Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0

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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:38 am

M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:02 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:10 am Yeah, I like Mixon but he didn't even have the most carries on his own team. That should be a giant red flag to whomever thinks he's the next DJ or Bell. I think it's easier for people to say "he's the best RB in the class if it weren't for his character concerns" because it gives them an out both ways. If he turns out great they say see I told you! And if he turns out to be not so great they can say see I told you! It's a giant cop out.
Now that's at least a valid, specific criticism. As the resident Mixon truther in this thread, I'd counter that that has more to do with Perine also being really good than Mixon being bad. Derrick Henry didn't have the most carries on his own team last year either, but most would still prefer him to Murray.
You can't compare 2nd or 3rd year college players to NFL rookies, so the Henry thing makes no sense. He's behind Murray who rushed for 1800 yards in a single NFL season, there's no shame in that. In college, Henry showed he could handle a large workload. He had more carries in his final collegiate season than Mixon did in his entire college career.

As for Perine, sure he too was drafted albeit 2 rounds later than Mixon. College coaches will sell their souls for wins, if they really thought Mixon was clearly more talented than Perine and could handle a larger workload they would have given it to him. They didn't, and that raises my eyebrows a little bit. I'm not saying I don't like him, I just think Mixon is going to be more like Lamar Miller than David Johnson. Mixon weighed in at 228lbs but I don't think he plays up to his weight... similar to CJ Prosise in that regard.

M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:02 am Not sure I follow the logic on your second point, though. If Mixon turns out to simply be bad at football, how would I be able to resort to an "I told you so" excuse? I expect to be eating a shitload of crow if that turns out to be the case.
I wasn't referencing you specifically. It's just the general feeling I get when I hear people say (on podcasts or this forum or wherever) that Mixon may be the most talented back in the class, but those darn character concerns! It's just setting themselves up to be right no matter what the outcome is. If he's "bad at football" they won't blame it on talent, rather character issues such as bad work ethic or whatever. That's just the thought that pops into my head when I hear people say that.

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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Kramer » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:51 am

To the point of Mixon not getting the bulk of the carries behind Perine. This has been brought up before and the explanation that was provided was about how the college didn't want the distraction of Mixon's past coming up over and over if they heavily utilized him and he was their star player who would be talked about before/during/after every game. The Bengals are more than okay with his past though and I don't see them limiting him for PR reasons.
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QB: Allen, AR, Brissett
RB: Mixon,Barkley,Rhamondre,Foreman
WR: Deebo,Adams,Jeudy, Devonta,Nuk
TE: Knox,Chig, Woods, Ferguson
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby jnappy » Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:10 pm

I'd much rather trade out of the spot or reach like crazy on a guy I like that draft a guy who already has a high percentage chance to bust and I don't like him either. Last offseason before our rookie draft, I sold realllllllly low on 1.02. I got ripped on this forum for it, and I should have gotten ripped - I know now that I sold too low. That picked turned into Treadwell though, and while the jury is still out on him, I still may have won this trade. Here is what I have now instead of Tread:

I gave: 1.02, Abdullah
I got: Maclin, Dion

This is TERRIBLE I know, don't @ me.

Then....
I gave: Maclin, DWill
I got: Ingram

I gave: Dion, Eli Rogers
I got: Tyrell

I gave: Tyrell, McKinnon
I got: MG

Also TERRIBLE, but in my favor this time.

Basically, I gave 1.02 (Tread), Abdullah, DWill, Eli Rogers, and McKinnon for Ingram and MG. Which side would you rather have?

Now I know it doesn't work out perfectly like this every time, but the odds of ending up with something closer to what I have instead of keeping 1.02 and Tread turning into a beast are wayyyyyyy higher even before his rookie season. Now this was a WR bust, but rookie picks in general just bust a lot. Trade the pick(s) for a vet that is undervalued, i.e. Ingram and MG when you can.
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Friction » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:42 pm

Kramer wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:51 am To the point of Mixon not getting the bulk of the carries behind Perine. This has been brought up before and the explanation that was provided was about how the college didn't want the distraction of Mixon's past coming up over and over if they heavily utilized him and he was their star player who would be talked about before/during/after every game. The Bengals are more than okay with his past though and I don't see them limiting him for PR reasons.
Source? I watch every OU game and follow pretty much all their major stuff online, etc. And i never saw anybody in the program say that. Not that I disagree with it, but Bob Stoops sure as hell did not care and they are all about winning there, not pleasing the masses outside of Norman. Their fanbase mostly puts football first, with morals far behind. Curious to see where you saw that, not that i doubt you.
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Kramer » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:47 pm

Friction wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:42 pm
Kramer wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:51 am To the point of Mixon not getting the bulk of the carries behind Perine. This has been brought up before and the explanation that was provided was about how the college didn't want the distraction of Mixon's past coming up over and over if they heavily utilized him and he was their star player who would be talked about before/during/after every game. The Bengals are more than okay with his past though and I don't see them limiting him for PR reasons.
Source? I watch every OU game and follow pretty much all their major stuff online, etc. And i never saw anybody in the program say that. Not that I disagree with it, but Bob Stoops sure as hell did not care and they are all about winning there, not pleasing the masses outside of Norman. Their fanbase mostly puts football first, with morals far behind. Curious to see where you saw that, not that i doubt you.
This was an explanation provided by some posters that I remembered reading before. So take it with a grain of salt. I doubt the team would admit this if that is what they were doing though.
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QB: Allen, AR, Brissett
RB: Mixon,Barkley,Rhamondre,Foreman
WR: Deebo,Adams,Jeudy, Devonta,Nuk
TE: Knox,Chig, Woods, Ferguson
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Friction » Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:09 pm

Ok.That sounds like some posters logic. But to say "we wont feature him, nothing to do with the establish starter who offers a different, unique skillset, because it will gain too much attention if he is a big star. So we will make him one of the big stars instead, hoping he will blend in, while we win the Big 12 and almost make the college playoff and still play in a major Bowl game, where we will utilize him as the central part of our game plan". Run-on sentences aside, I really cannot see any team who would keep him around after the incident thinking that way.
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Re: How to Recover or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:41 am

Vcize wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:12 am Would you rather have a 10% chance at $100 or a 15% chance at $20? Remember, Golden Tate was the CEILING in the example you're referencing here.

Are those percentages just pulled out of thin air? Sure. Just like the notion that has been perpetrated here that vets are "significantly" less likely to bust. Are they? Maybe. But no one really knows because people are only citing half of a study. Rookies bust at a high rate. Mizelle gaves us the data on that. But it's not in context. In dynasty, EVERYONE busts at a high rate. Look at past startup drafts with guys in the 4th-5th round range (that you would be able to trade these rookie picks for). It's a murderer's row of "proven" guys that became total busts.
Football is always going to be a revolving door of talent, but the odds of a proven player giving you more production than a rookie still remain noticeably higher. Sure, someone can point to Michael Floyd, but there were already flags about Floyd that would have told you not to trade 1.06 for him two years ago. Arian Foster was coming off a great season in 2014, but had a long injury history and was getting older.

Just like you need perspective to avoid rookie landmines, you need them in trading for proven talent. The difference though is that it's much easier to slide those proven players in a lineup and have less concerns because they've already done it.
If you're not trading for elite studs, there's a big risk you're getting a bust whether it's a vet or a rook. It's a trop to think these proven guys are some kind of safety net, just like the trap that's gone around these forums this offseason with that stat about Melvin Gordon's YPC with his goaline carries removed where no one thought to actually put it in context to see if he was actually abnormally affected by that stat relative to the rest of the league (hint: he wasn't).
Statistically speaking, it's not a trap. Most rookies drafted will lose value and not give you fantasy-relevant production. Not as many veterans will.
So let's not sit here and pretend like getting a middling Golden Tate is some kind of guarantee in these trades. You're far more likely to end up with Terrance Williams or Jeremy Maclin or Percy Harvin or Jordan Matthews or Reuben Randle or Hakeem Nicks. The busts are everywhere. Fantasy football is essentially a big game of pot odds in poker and ignoring that your odds are still low even when putting out a big risk to target a small pot is a great way to set yourself back in a poker game, or a fantasy football one.

The problem is you're citing things as if we're talking about a 10% chance of landing David Johnson vs. a 100% chance of landing Golden Tate. The reality is that the percentage next to Golden Tate's name is far far far less than 100%.

I'm not saying don't try and move those picks for vets, I'm just saying don't get caught in the trap of assuming those low-upside vets are some kind of safety net because you're unwilling to look back and see how vastly many of those "safe" floor guys busted just as hard as the rookies, while providing none of the upside. Pot odds.
Again, you need perspective in fantasy football overall. You have to consider likelihoods of upside and downside, as well as other metrics and scouting that will give you the best informed decision. You're right that veterans can blow up in your face too, but the process of trusting proven production over rookies does bring you a higher floor.

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Re: How to Recover or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Kcarr » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:36 pm

[/quote]
Statistically speaking, it's not a trap. Most rookies drafted will lose value and not give you fantasy-relevant production. Not as many veterans will.

[/quote]

I have started to go back and look at this. This is something people say a lot but so far I am not seeing it. To do this I broke players into 4 groups, rookies, vets 25 and under, 26 through 29, and older vets. Looking at the June adp one year and then the next to see rise and fall on average without tracking names or anything, just raw data.

So far of 47 young vets in the top 100 in 2014 2 were out of the top 262 by the next year, 8 more dropped at least 100 spots, 8 more dropped over 50, 6 more dropped over 30. That is over half dropping signifigantly.

Meanwhile 11 increased at all 2 over 30 spots. 10 of 14 rookies increased, 3 by over 30 spots while 1 dropped over 50 and 1 over 30. That means this year less than a 3rd, much less than the over half of young vets from the year before dropped way off. I know this is a small sample but I am working on the rest

I have also done the 2015 rookies and 8 of 16 increased in value while 2 dropped over 50 and 3 over 30.
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Vcize » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:41 pm

M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:46 am
Vcize wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:00 am
M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:01 am

I understand the topic at hand. My point was that all first round picks have the potential to bust. I'm just more confident in Mixon not punching another girl than I am in, say, CMac bulking up to a 220 pound bellcow and Rivera suddenly incorporating his RB into the passing game.
Again, Mixon punching another girl is not his only risk. There's still a fairly sizable risk that he's not a good NFL running back, or not a workhorse NFL RB, or not a between the tackles NFL player. All of these things would have been getting more publicity if there weren't such a big dramatic story about him overshadowing it all. It's a trap to assume that his off the field issues are his only risk.
Okay, I'll bite. What are Mixon's football-related red flags? You keep vaguely referencing them, but fail to cite any specific examples like I did with Lenny, CMC and Cook. If it's just "well, he could turn out to be not good at football," that just goes back to my point that ALL rookies are unproven until they aren't and carry some degree of risk. But on paper and on tape, Mixon at least appears to be the most complete back in this class, and he also landed in one of the best possible spots in terms of rushing volume over the past several years. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be successful. My only issue was that it seems disingenuous to label him as somehow riskier than the other three top backs in this class when they all have their fair share of concerns.
He generally ran in very favorable rushing situations on an elite college team against very weak defenses. I don't remember the exact number offhand but he only faced 8 defenders in the box on something like 6% of his runs (or some other absurd number around there).
The other top RB prospects were facing those loaded fronts literally 10x as often (Fournette was at 67%). Fournette actually faced 9 in the box 4x as often as Mixon faced merely 8 in the box.

If you watch Mixon's highlight reels you'll see a bunch of sweet moves but they typically occur way downfield in open space. His creativity and ability to find lanes around the line of scrimmage has been heavily criticized, which will be much more important in the NFL than it was running through truck sized holes at OU. Average at best vision is something that comes up a lot in scouting reports of him as a player. He also was asked to pass block very little in college (he was sent out on a route on 80% of the passing plays he was in for) so that is a huge unknown given that a lot of his value is predicated on the prediction that he will be able to stay on the field for all 3 downs.

Here are some quotes from his scouting reports.

Shows average vision and patience. Pacing can be off at times and he can be late recognizing a seam that has opened up. Will he be as successful in a non-spread offense when reads aren’t as clear?

He has room to improve his vision and patience as a runner. He was able to overcome it at times with pure athletic ability, but that likely won’t work as often in the NFL.

Inconsistent as inside runner. Can be too patient at times. Looks for wide-open points of entry before he hits the gas. Can be nonchalant approaching line of scrimmage. Dances downhill allowing running lanes to become creases. Feet lag behind when headed into congestion and will get loose with his rush track inviting tacklers a chance to get a hand on him. Lacks creativity in initial stages of his run at times. Vision is just average. Fails to see backside cuts developing on stretch plays. Hops into his downhill cuts rather than a crisp plant-and-go.

As a player, he can play all three downs but he's not going to create for himself like Fournette or Cook. --NFC North area scout

Life against weaker Big 12 defenses has created a more relaxed rushing approach for Mixon who will have to play at a faster pace as an NFL back. Mixon's vision is just average and he could struggle to create for himself in front of a subpar offensive line; -- Lance Zierlein

Looks for huge holes often before going instead of just getting up-field instantly. Dances too much at times. Average vision.
Doesn’t see the cuts and opening lanes on the backside of the play. Hops often instead of planting and going on his cuts.


The fact that it was unknown to most that he had weaknesses as a player just further emphasizes my point on how much the off the field stuff has overshadowed things and caused people to lose perspective. I mean, there were 50 pages of debate about Adrian Peterson's on the field weaknesses when he came out, yet people actually believe Joe Mixon has none?

The almost excessive comments about his lack of good vision and ability to find/hit the holes is the most concerning by far. Remember Trent Richardson had all the physical tools and all the moves, he just couldn't figure out which direction to run when there wasn't a giant hole staring him in the face as soon as he got the ball.

Again, that's not to say that any of this is going to doom him, just that the narrative that he's a perfect prospect as a player but just has some off the field issues is false. He has on the field concerns too, they've just been overshadowed.
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby akbfrosty » Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:29 am

Kcarr wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:36 pm
I have started to go back and look at this. This is something people say a lot but so far I am not seeing it. To do this I broke players into 4 groups, rookies, vets 25 and under, 26 through 29, and older vets. Looking at the June adp one year and then the next to see rise and fall on average without tracking names or anything, just raw data.

So far of 47 young vets in the top 100 in 2014 2 were out of the top 262 by the next year, 8 more dropped at least 100 spots, 8 more dropped over 50, 6 more dropped over 30. That is over half dropping signifigantly.

Meanwhile 11 increased at all 2 over 30 spots. 10 of 14 rookies increased, 3 by over 30 spots while 1 dropped over 50 and 1 over 30. That means this year less than a 3rd, much less than the over half of young vets from the year before dropped way off. I know this is a small sample but I am working on the rest

I have also done the 2015 rookies and 8 of 16 increased in value while 2 dropped over 50 and 3 over 30.
While doing this, keep in mind that a lot of the "young vets" are similar to rookies in that they haven't actually produced yet. Since they've had more time in the league to produce (also likely older than rookies), they reach a sort of tipping point. That's what makes the 3rd-4th year (yet to produce) player one of the most volatile assets in dynasty. If they don't produce again, they're labeled a bust.

The older vets are less volatile, I think, but absolutely must produce as WR2's or they're likely going to lose value. If they're old enough, they'll still lose value even with decent production. That's just the way of the market. I think you'd need to look at the production of the players in question as well as their value drop.

I think that's the real discussion. It's propped as a value argument, but it's not. A 29 year old WR won't hold his "value" in comparison to a 1st round rookie pick for at least the first 2 years. It's not likely, at least. It's an "assumed safety" within the producing vet that is being called value.

I think last year might have been an outlier year for those vets we would've deemed "safe". There's also something to be said for how WR heavy last years ADP was when you're going through it. Using June, 30 WRs taken in the first 42 picks. We don't hit 30 this year until 54. I'd have to look more closely at previous years, though.

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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby maxhyde » Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:25 pm

M-Dub wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:46 am
maxhyde wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:44 amRight. Violence against women isn't an attitude/character trait just a one off encounter...again and again
CMac doesn't need to be 220. He wrecked college at his weight so might be best to try to be the same player at the next level
I think it's important to keep context in mind when it comes to Mixon's off-field incident. He didn't rough up his wife/girlfriend or beat his child with a tree branch. A drunken, belligerent stranger called him the n-word to his face and he snapped. That strikes me as something that's more likely to be an isolated incident rather than an indication of a pattern of abusive behavior. To paraphrase Chris Rock, I'm not saying he should've punched her... but I understand.
I think understanding it is one thing but asking yourself what kind of guy hits a girl in that situation and why should we believe it is a one off situation? I have never been aggravated by guys as much (but been in plenty of altercations) as I have been aggravated by women in my life...apologies to my wife and gf's before but it is true for me. I have always been OK taking physical violence off the table in disputes with the fairer sex.

I am totally for laying a dude out for bad mouthing you or even much less and I totally get fear-based pre-emptive strikes to end confrontations as quickly as possible. I am not against men physically solving problems at all because some are still very savage at heart (see MMA/boxing/football/hockey). We have aggression as men and physical violence is accepted to a degree. However I just can't understand how an elite athlete playing in a violent physical sport sucker punches a girl/woman no matter what her manners/actions toward him are. I have no qualms walking away or running even, if I must, to avoid a physical confrontation with someone clearly not my equal in that forum.
For me it is only a matter of time before he snaps again in the wrong situation and costs you games (or more) as an owner. I might be willing to take that chance with the understanding I am exposing myself to a substantial risk while he is on my roster (aka selling as soon as I see an opportunity) but not if there is an equivalent option available give or take. Maybe he learned his lesson and it is clear sailing but the spotlight is brighter now in the NFL so I think it is prudent to understand this may not be a one off incident and more of an insight into his character/attitude.

Anyway I also question him not being the 'man' in Oklahoma if he is such a superior option as well. I think Perine is better than the fantasy community credits him for and Mixon maybe not as good as we all think. Time will tell in all aspects of this but in avoiding busts the guy with the highest chance of being suspended in the future based on past actions is probably a good choice to avoid
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby Friction » Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:05 pm

At least he did not verbally abuse her, we all know that is much worse. I guess the double-standards have me scratch my head some, as evidenced above. So, it is ok to lay out a dude for simply bad-mouthing you? I guess we should be thankful most athletes do show better restraint then. They get bad-mouthed a lot. This has been hashed out plenty though, and I too, have practiced more calmness under pressure after getting clocked in the face by a female or two, so I do comprehend how it may be hard for some to understand it. Domestic assault will always be an issue in our country, whether it be letting females off the hook entirely (in most instances, they are) and some men not being held accountable for their actions (entertainers mostly). Maybe my risk in drafting Mixon is easier due to the fact it is for my fake football team. I do not mean in the moral sense, as that means absolutely zilch in my fantasy world, but more in the amount of risk I am taking in comparison to the real NFL. What do I risk if he relapsed anyways, a couple hundred bucks or so invested? Even in Dynasty, that is just not a huge risk by any means, as draft picks bust at such a high rate regardless. That, and I am not as worried of him repeating his actions, be it a gut call or whatnot.
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Re: How to Recover From or Avoid 1st Round RB Busts?

Postby maxhyde » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:06 pm

Fair enough. You understand it and accepted it.

Apologies as my message may not be clear in that I don't think any dispute needs a physical resolution. All I meant was turning the other cheek doesn't always need to be the only option when it is a guy running his mouth or getting physical. It is at the very least accepted as a potential consequence and a very likely one depending where/how you grow up.
In my experience the male ego only allows itself to be pushed so far (some more than others) before that option is a valid option no matter how 'civilized' we believe we have become.

Anyway completely irrelevant from the RB bust perspective...my bad for de-railing the topic slightly
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams


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