Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

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Cowboysfan33
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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:13 pm

osubuckeyeman wrote: Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:25 pm Anyone else notice his stock is dropping? 12 team PPR Rookie draft start 1QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 2-3 TE. Davis fell to 5th overall.

1.1 LF

1.2 Joe Mixon

1.3 CMAC

1.4 D. Cook

1.5 C.Davis

I took Davis at #5 in one of mine. 12 team PPR

1.01- Joe Mixon
1.02- Leonard Fournette
1.03- Dalvin Cook
1.04- CMC
1.05- Corey Davis

I needed RB help on that particular team but I still think Davis was too good to pass up, especially at that spot.

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby osubuckeyeman » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:34 pm

The Decker signing seems to be the big reason why. I have noticed the Smash mouth running game narrative lately, however, the only thing that has changed since May and June where Davis was going 1.1 and 1.2 is Decker. Seems to me that folks do not see him as the next Calvin or AB. I think we will see him go 1.4 or 1.5 in a larger sample size of rookie drafts from here on out.

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby IR1 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:07 am

Cowboysfan33 wrote: Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:13 pm
osubuckeyeman wrote: Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:25 pm Anyone else notice his stock is dropping? 12 team PPR Rookie draft start 1QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 2-3 TE. Davis fell to 5th overall.

1.1 LF

1.2 Joe Mixon

1.3 CMAC

1.4 D. Cook

1.5 C.Davis

I took Davis at #5 in one of mine. 12 team PPR

1.01- Joe Mixon
1.02- Leonard Fournette
1.03- Dalvin Cook
1.04- CMC
1.05- Corey Davis

I needed RB help on that particular team but I still think Davis was too good to pass up, especially at that spot.
I ended up with him on all three teams, drafted him at 4,5 and 6, agree, too good of value to pass
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby freddog97 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:03 pm

austing wrote: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:31 am
StableOfRBs wrote: Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:48 pm The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.
Thank you. It feels like you described the worries I've been having regarding him perfectly. 65 catches is not going to get it done of you are correct. :/
[/quote/]

Do we really expect Davis to put up huge numbers as a rookie? I'd love to see him catch 60-800-5 personally. I don't expect any rookie WR to initialy put up WR1 numbers. If he does great ! But it's dynasty after all so I don't mind to wait a few seasons for him to develop.
20 team(2 copy) superflex Devy PPR(.5 RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) .25PPC
QBs: Lawrence, Darnold
RBs: Swift, Walker III, Pierce, Allgeier
WRs: Lamb, Higgins, Jeudy, Wilson(NYJ), Olave, Flowers, Cooks, Davis, Doubs
TE: Engram Kincaid Kmet Schoonmaker
Devy: Marvin Harrison Jr
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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby austing » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:09 am

freddog97 wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:03 pm
austing wrote: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:31 am
StableOfRBs wrote: Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:48 pm The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.
Thank you. It feels like you described the worries I've been having regarding him perfectly. 65 catches is not going to get it done of you are correct. :/
[/quote/]

Do we really expect Davis to put up huge numbers as a rookie? I'd love to see him catch 60-800-5 personally. I don't expect any rookie WR to initialy put up WR1 numbers. If he does great ! But it's dynasty after all so I don't mind to wait a few seasons for him to develop.
I agree and expect his talent to develop as time goes on, however it is difficult to project a more rosey scenario in regards to the titans offense becoming a perennial offensive juggernaut. Just my opinion..
12 team/37 year contract cap ppr league/ Player (yrs left on team) --- Qb Rb Flex Flex Flex Flex (max 3 rbs, no req. TEs)

QB Josh Allen (1)

RB Nick Chubb (1) Miles Sanders (4) Chase Edmunds (1)

WR Kenny Golladay (2) Jerry Jeudy (4) Courtland Sutton (3) Allen Robinson (3) Marvin Jones (2) Nelson Agholor (1) Nkeal Harry (3)

K Josh Brown (1)

Dst Bears (1)

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby Mefisto » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:53 am

I agree it seems Davis has been falling, but I think that has as much to do with how every team seems to be so RB needy these days that everyone wants one of the big 4 RB. In my 10 team ppr superflex I took him at 1.05. In my 12 team non-ppr 2QB league, I think he went 1.07.

To the above comment regarding his usage and the Titans offense potential ascension to a juggernaut offense (they are well on their way), the Titans are following a tried and true blue print. Bring in a young QB. Give him a great running game to lean on his first few years while he gets his feet wet before turning into a passing attack. This has been done with Big Ben, Wilson, Rivers, just to name a few. This is dynasty, you have to think a few years down the line and it definitely seems like this is where the Titans are going. As long as injuries don't derail them, Mariota/Henry/Davis could be the next big 3.

Will Davis be a WR1 this year? Almost certainly not. I definitely agree the volume will not be there. Do I think that volume will increase as Mariota begins to find his own and this shifts into a passing attack? Most definitely.

Also, as a side note, no one thought AB would be the next Calvin/AB.
12 Team Non-PPR league. 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DL, 1LB, 1DB, 2DL/LB/DB
QB: Brady, Stafford, Mariota, Tannehill
RB: L. Miller, A. Collins, K. Drake, R. Freeman, K. Dixon, D. Foreman, D. Murray, J. Allen, Gore
WR: Hopkins, ARob, S. Diggs, D. Parker, M. Lee, J. Matthews, T. Lockett, D. Pettis, Callaway
TE: T. Kelce, E. Ebron, C. Brate
K: Bailey, Coons, Boswell
DL: D. Hunter, R. Quinn, D. Lawrence
LB: Von Miller, A. Ogletree, B. Wagner T. Edmunds
DB: H. Smith, J. Cyprien, L. Collins
2017 Superbowl Champion

10 Team PPR League. Start QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 1Superflex, 1Flex, 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 3DFlex
QB: Luck, Goff, Trubisky, Prescott, Tannehill
RB: Gurley, Mixon, Barkley, D. Foreman
WR: Kupp, Cooper, C. Davis, Parker, T. Lockett, Kupp, W. Fuller, Sutton, John Brown, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Burton
DL: D. Lawrence, Ogunjobi, Ansah, M. Davenport
LB: L. Kuechly, T. Smith, Kiko Alonso, T. Edmunds, J. Smith, R. Foster
DB: Clinton-Dix, D. James, T. Edmunds, M. Jenkins

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby srlarson » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:52 am

Not a Davis believer... actually not a believer in any of the top 3 wr from this years draft.....I think Davis can be a nice WR in the NFL...but from a fantasy perspective I think his upside is a WR2 at best.....and this year I see him as a wr 4 or 5.

Another thing hurting him is Ten is a running team and will be for the near future w Murray and henry.

I could be wrong....but time will tell.....passing on him this year in all formats...
Empire 10 team 30man rosters QB, 2rb, 3Wr, TE, 2F, K (.5ppr RB's, ppr WR/TE)
redraft coming


Empire 12 team SF 30man rosters - QB, 2rb, 2wr, te, sf, Rb/Wr/Te flex, 2Rb/Wr Flex
(rb .5ppr, wr 1ppr, TE 1.5ppr) -
QB - Prescott, Cousins, M Jones, C. Rush
RB - JT, Chubb, J Cook, Hunt, Penny, Patterson, Foreman, Davis-Price, Henderson, Patterson
WR - Diggs, M Thomas, Gallup, K Phillips, Goodwin, Hollins, C Moore, raymond, reynolds, D robinson, J Watson
TE - Ertz, Brate, McBride, Akins, Gray
1.05,2.05,3.05,4.05

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:54 pm

GridironGuerilla wrote: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:33 am I believe he's just referring the the level of studism they both share.

:clap: :lol:
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Darnold(NYJ)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021

Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby Angus Osborne » Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:18 pm

In my latest draft he went at 11. Two IDP players and two vet FA went ahead of him so you could say at 7 in another format.
I passed on him at 4, taking Mixon, RB a need on my team, and it's hard to make a trade in this league.

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:18 pm

srlarson wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:52 am

Another thing hurting him is Ten is a running team and will be for the near future w Murray and henry.
I get so tired of hearing this. They were a running team because they had a rookie/2nd year QB with average at best receivers. You shouldn't be counting on Davis until 2-3 years from now, in which time its absurd to think that what happened last year will at all be relevant.

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:56 am

Has he even played in preseason? All of the rookie RB (well, not LF) have put up a couple of splashy plays so far, which is pushing them up the draft board.

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby mratlanta » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:25 am

He's dropped because even though we play dynasty people get influenced by the promise of immediate production vs future elite production.
12-team Non-PPR QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, TE, K, DEF
QB: Mahomes, Cam, Tannehill
RB: LeVeon, Jordan Howard, Latavius, Bryce Love, Ty Johnson
WR: OBJ, Antonio Brown, Corey Davis, Robby Anderson, Anthony Miller, Arcega-Whiteside,
Diontae Johnson, Hakeem Butler, DJ Chark, Darius Slayton
TE: OJ Howard, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett
K: Zuerlein
DEF: KC

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Re: DAVIS THE NEXT CALVIN/AB???

Postby nathanq42 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:12 am

mratlanta wrote: Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:25 am He's dropped because even though we play dynasty people get influenced by the promise of immediate production vs future elite production.
If Dalvin cook is beasting it now isnt that a god indicator he will continue to put up a good amount of points? I know its pre-season but immediate production and future elite production aren't mutually exclusive.

So while all of the RBs are showing they can make big plays in the league, Davis hasn't done anything to say he can too, so how would that be an indicator of future elite production over a guy who is making big plays now?
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
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Corey Davis concerns?

Postby Crazylegs » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:06 pm

I was recently talking with a fellow Dynasty owner and lifelong Oilers/Titans fan. He made the point that Corey Davis may never reach his ceiling in Tennessee, due to their scheme. He asked me who was the last relevant WR 1 from the Oilers/Titans. As a lifelong fan, he had to go back to the Run and Shoot days of Haywood Jeffries and Derrick Mason. He made the point that they are a run centric offense and that they throw a lot to the TE. It did make me wonder if the Titans offensive system will limit Davis' ceiling. Thoughts?

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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:20 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:48 pm The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.
From a Davis thread over the summer and just like clockwork Mariota is averaging 30.6 pass attempts per game so far this year. Another thing to consider with low volume passing offenses is volatility, the lower the volume a receiver gets the more likely any small change in play from either the WR or QB will effect their fantasy totals so consistency takes a huge blow there as well.
Greek Mythology League - Heracles - 2QB/3RB/4WR/2TE/2Flex/2DT/2DE/4LB/2CB/2S/1DFlex:
https://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/13740#1

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