Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

[SteveVolk]

I got Corey Davis in one of my leagues, where he fail to... wait for it... the 1.05! I was ecstatic, but I do think the small school/poor competition angle is enough of a concern all on its own that I cannot possibly go ranking him alongside Amari Cooper just yet. I think he does have that kind of potential but we need to see it translate.

[ItsHandsomeDave]

I dont think he could have landed in a better situation. Improving off with an excellent running game, good young QB and he will come in day 1 as their WR1. When you throw in where he was drafted, his college record and his combine then he does feel like the safest pick in the annual lottery/draft.

First player off the board for me this year.

[sloth8u]

a

[spotxc]

Give me Mike Williams for the severely cheaper price, especially now since he's dropping more..I like davis but wouldn't pay 1.01 prices for him, rather have a guy like fournette or trade it for its insane prices.

[austing]

Is mariota and the titans offense conducive to mega wr1 production? I keep wondering about this as it pertains to Davis and his elite wr1 hype. I get the qb is young but is there more to it than that?

[onetwothree]

Just part of the fun of fantasy football. You get your guy and plan for best case scenario.

Can he be that next stud WR1? Sure. Everything is lined up between talent and situation.

Will he be? No clue. Still hasn't really worked out since the season ended so still a bit of a mystery.

Right now I'd settle for getting on the field healthy along with his QB and developing some chemistry and locking down WR1 on his own team.

[StableOfRBs]

The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.

[Valhalla]

THOSE THAT RECOGNIZE HIGH END WR PRODUCTION!!! THIS THREAD IS FOR YOU?

Damnit! Who typed a question mark on the TelePrompTer?

[Sterling Archer]

You can tell how much bluster will be in a post by the CAPS AND NUMBER OF EXCLAMATION MARKS!!!

And by the misuse of question marks.

[austing]

The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.

Thank you. It feels like you described the worries I've been having regarding him perfectly. 65 catches is not going to get it done of you are correct. :/

[Space Cowboy]

Somewhere between Dez and Andre Johnson.

[DLF3000]

I believe he's just referring the the level of studism they both share.

Level of Studism.

This should be a stat. And trademarked!

[Knox Steel Curtain]

Davis is a top 15 dynasty receiver. By year three he should be in top 10 with his situation. Mariota is a stud quarterback that is vastly underrated. I have gone back and forth on Davis, but think he has to slot right in at 2 behind Fournett in all formats.

[Spinkso]

He's Jordy Nelson 2.0

[osubuckeyeman]

Anyone else notice his stock is dropping? 12 team PPR Rookie draft start 1QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 2-3 TE. Davis fell to 5th overall.

1.1 LF

1.2 Joe Mixon

1.3 CMAC

1.4 D. Cook

1.5 C.Davis