The Mike Williams Thread: Finally turned the corner?

[James McGhee]

I don't know who is giving 1st's for Marshall or Ingram but I would say that is probably ill-advised. Not saying they can't be useful but they certainly shouldn't carry that kind of trade value at this point in their respective career. Maybe mid-season if they are producing a contender could trade a 1st to go for the ship but right now? No way.

I would eagerly pay an early-mid 2nd for Marshall, and Ingram is worth a mid-late 1st (1.07-1.12) for sure.

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

[hornybulls]

I would consider Fleener a bust. His ADP was around 80 overall his rookie season (rookie 1.08). Every year since then his average ADP has been 150 or higher.

If you consider Fleener a bust, then below are the bust rates per position for fantasy 1st round draft choices from 2007-2014 (bust subjectively defined by me as I did not have time to create a mathematical formula and gather stats):

QB: 33% (1/3)
RB: 58% (28/48)
WR: 45% (18/40)
TE: 50% (2/4)

[ImaRounder]

I would consider Fleener a bust. His ADP was around 80 overall his rookie season (rookie 1.08). Every year since then his average ADP has been 150 or higher.

If you consider Fleener a bust, then below are the bust rates per position for fantasy 1st round draft choices from 2007-2014 (bust subjectively defined by me as I did not have time to create a mathematical formula and gather stats):

QB: 33% (1/3)
RB: 58% (28/48)
WR: 45% (18/40)
TE: 50% (2/4)

I mean I don't think that ebron is considered a bust yet, but boy is it getting close. He was targeted in the RZ six times last year. Those type of numbers scare me.

[abecksta]

Fair I'm not arguing for Mixon, just that a first for Ingram probably isn't wise. I don't think he has a great year. RB2 at best. I don't see his value going up unless he finds the perfect situation. It just seems he isn't treated right in New Orleans and until he leaves there his ceiling is capped pretty significantly and by time he leaves he might be less of player.

And this being a Mike Williams thread and all all I will address that. I take him at 1.05 or maybe even sooner than that. I think he is elite at catching the ball and will make contested plays that earn his QB's trust and will be a consistent producer in the NFL longterm. Maybe a Devante Parker like career trajectory? I traded Greg Olsen, Will Fuller, and Tyrell Williams for him a few weeks ago. I don't love the trade but it freed up some valuable roster spaces and Fuller and Williams were like my WRs 6 and 7 so I went for it.

His value will only go up from here. All these RB's values are already built in and not all of them are going to be elite options, at least one of those top 4 guys will be a severe disappointment and I don't like to invest a ton in the RB position because injuries are so prevalent. I traded Dez Bryant for Doug Martin in 2014 and a 2016 first for Marshawn in 2015. Obviously regret those moves but I learned not to invest too much into that position chasing points. Especially when you can find value just by being patient and watching the league closely. Last year I got Blount in the 4th round of the rookie draft. This year I got Turbin and Dunbar in the 4th and 5th.

PS- Go get Turbin and Dunbar while they are still free.

[Chris_R]

I would eagerly pay an early-mid 2nd for Marshall, and Ingram is worth a mid-late 1st (1.07-1.12) for sure.

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

What point are you trying to make? Ingram is not a 21 year old elite RB. My point is I would love to play with anyone who is giving up 1st rounders for Ingram and Marshall. I consider those players scraps. Will they have some use? Absolutely. But in a year to two Mixon has a great chance of being a top 5-10 RB and the others? Marshall will be retired after a couple of 800 yard seasons and Ingram will be 29. He barely had 1000 rushing yards last year and now they brought in Peterson and Kamara during his last few years in his prime.

So your quote is confusing because I never said what you are implying.

[James McGhee]

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

What point are you trying to make? Ingram is not a 21 year old elite RB. My point is I would love to play with anyone who is giving up 1st rounders for Ingram and Marshall. I consider those players scraps. Will they have some use? Absolutely. But in a year to two Mixon has a great chance of being a top 5-10 RB and the others? Marshall will be retired after a couple of 800 yard seasons and Ingram will be 29. He barely had 1000 rushing yards last year and now they brought in Peterson and Kamara during his last few years in his prime.

So your quote is confusing because I never said what you are implying.

Your statement that you'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB. Only range of picks discussed giving away these scraps for are late 1sts and early 2nds...where 21 year old elite RB prospects definitely do not reside.

[Vcize]

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

What point are you trying to make? Ingram is not a 21 year old elite RB. My point is I would love to play with anyone who is giving up 1st rounders for Ingram and Marshall. I consider those players scraps. Will they have some use? Absolutely. But in a year to two Mixon has a great chance of being a top 5-10 RB and the others? Marshall will be retired after a couple of 800 yard seasons and Ingram will be 29. He barely had 1000 rushing yards last year and now they brought in Peterson and Kamara during his last few years in his prime.

So your quote is confusing because I never said what you are implying.

Your statement that you'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB. Only range of picks discussed giving away these scraps for are late 1sts and early 2nds...where 21 year old elite RB prospects definitely do not reside.

Definitely do not reside? Jordan Howard didn't reside there? Jay Ajayi didn't reside there? Devonta Freeman didn't reside there? David Johnson didn't reside there? OK so David Johnson wasn't 21, but you get the point.

Sure we're talking about dart throws in a sense here, but we're also talking about more than half of the top 15 dynasty RBs (and several in the top 5) that were available in the late 1st round of rookie drafts in the last few years.

[Vcize]

I would eagerly pay an early-mid 2nd for Marshall, and Ingram is worth a mid-late 1st (1.07-1.12) for sure.

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

As I said, I would prefer Mixon versus the other side.

Now, in regards to your comment about being in the same league together, I would love to have a trade partner such as yourself who thinks that a 26/27 year old starting RB playing as Drew Brees' caddy is scraps. And an older WR who will probably be a WR2 for the next 2-3 years, is also scraps?

That's a pretty hefty mischaracterization of the players being described here. A guy whose team who brought in a reasonably high priced free agent RB and drafted another RB on day two of the draft is no one's caddy.

As to Marshall, whether or not he'll ever be a WR2 a single time again is a toss-up at best, much less for the next 3 years.

[Vcize]

I would consider Fleener a bust. His ADP was around 80 overall his rookie season (rookie 1.08). Every year since then his average ADP has been 150 or higher.

If you consider Fleener a bust, then below are the bust rates per position for fantasy 1st round draft choices from 2007-2014 (bust subjectively defined by me as I did not have time to create a mathematical formula and gather stats):

QB: 33% (1/3)
RB: 58% (28/48)
WR: 45% (18/40)
TE: 50% (2/4)

Fleener is a bust because he's a TE and most people only start 1 TE. He's a replacement level, not top 12 player at a position where only 12 players start and there are no shortage of easy guys to find who can be plugged in and match Fleener for production. He was TE23 in ppg last year at a position where most leagues are only starting 12 players.

Ebron is at best an unknown at this point. TE14 as his career best season so far, IE not even a starting caliber TE in most fantasy leagues, or the equivalent of a WR who's best season was WR38 in a league that starts 3 WRs.

I'd be more willing to call that list a 25% hit rate than a 25% bust rate.

[Chris_R]

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

What point are you trying to make? Ingram is not a 21 year old elite RB. My point is I would love to play with anyone who is giving up 1st rounders for Ingram and Marshall. I consider those players scraps. Will they have some use? Absolutely. But in a year to two Mixon has a great chance of being a top 5-10 RB and the others? Marshall will be retired after a couple of 800 yard seasons and Ingram will be 29. He barely had 1000 rushing yards last year and now they brought in Peterson and Kamara during his last few years in his prime.

So your quote is confusing because I never said what you are implying.

Your statement that you'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB. Only range of picks discussed giving away these scraps for are late 1sts and early 2nds...where 21 year old elite RB prospects definitely do not reside.

Did you even read the post I responded to? Here it is again:


We have some sharks, but also some bait. I also traded Ingram, Marshall, 2.2 and 2018 2nd for Mixon + 2.11 (I heart Mixon) and then picked up foreman at 2.5.


Where in this post does it reference anywhere about getting Mixon for a late 1st, or after 1.6?

[Chris_R]

I would eagerly pay an early-mid 2nd for Marshall, and Ingram is worth a mid-late 1st (1.07-1.12) for sure.

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

As I said, I would prefer Mixon versus the other side.

Now, in regards to your comment about being in the same league together, I would love to have a trade partner such as yourself who thinks that a 26/27 year old starting RB playing as Drew Brees' caddy is scraps. And an older WR who will probably be a WR2 for the next 2-3 years, is also scraps?

You can characterize it however you would like. I would be laughing to the bank to get 1.07 for Ingram or a late 1st, early 2nd for Marshall. Yes they are scraps to me. Guys who are in muddied situations with no clear defined roles and no way to project what they might do. You conveniently left out how the Saints signed Peterson and took Kamara. Ingram barely got 1000 rushing yards last year without either, so tell me with confidence how many he will have with those two there? Marshall has been open about retirement soon, is 33, and paying that price for him to be second or third fiddle is not my cup of tea. Not blasting anyone for doing it, just wish I had someone in my league who felt he was worth that cost. You could pay less to get Enuwa to get the same stats on younger payer who has less hype.

All that for a back who while he has questions, has the upside of being a top 5 dynasty back. What's the upside of Ingram and Marshall? He called the person he made that deal with "bait" for a good reason.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

TE's taken in the top 12 picks in fantasy rookie drafts in the last 10 years:
Eric Ebron
Tyler Eifert
Coby Fleener
Lance Kendricks

I am curious where you are getting your ADP data. I remember ASJ, Amaro, Gresham, Pettigrew, and Keller going in the first in at least some of my leagues in the past 10ish years.

[ninotoreS]

I really don't see your point. You started with rookies are a crapshoot. Then brought up rookie value in start-up ADP and then used OBJ and Hill to prove something I'm not sure of. So consider me confused on your point.

I'm confused as to how you're confused. You don't see how 'crapshoot' is a valid descriptor for examples of radical value shifts for players from before their rookie year to after it? You know 'craps' is a word for playing dice, right?

OBJ and the 2014 draft would seem to prove the point of drafting limited RBs over WRs that were drafted highly.

Remember when (real life) 4th-round drafted Devonta Freeman was a mid 2nd round pick in that 2014 rookie-draft? Redo that rookie-draft today, and he'd go 1.3 now, right after Beckham and Evans... and ahead of WR Sammy Watkins, the real NFL draft 1.4 that year. Bet you thought at the time that Devonta was 'limited', too.

[hornybulls]

TE's taken in the top 12 picks in fantasy rookie drafts in the last 10 years:
Eric Ebron
Tyler Eifert
Coby Fleener
Lance Kendricks

I am curious where you are getting your ADP data. I remember ASJ, Amaro, Gresham, Pettigrew, and Keller going in the first in at least some of my leagues in the past 10ish years.

All ADP data is from Mizelle: http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/

The players you mentioned are showing as going in the 2nd round on average.

[James McGhee]

It's unfortunate we don't play in any leagues together. I'd love to give away scraps for a potential elite 21 year old RB 10 times out of 10. I would have also happily given you both players at these prices. 1.07 for Ingram? Lol.

Because elite 21 year old RBs grow on trees at the 1.07 to 1.12 range. Lol. I'd love to play in YOUR leagues.

What point are you trying to make? Ingram is not a 21 year old elite RB. My point is I would love to play with anyone who is giving up 1st rounders for Ingram and Marshall. I consider those players scraps. Will they have some use? Absolutely. But in a year to two Mixon has a great chance of being a top 5-10 RB and the others? Marshall will be retired after a couple of 800 yard seasons and Ingram will be 29. He barely had 1000 rushing yards last year and now they brought in Peterson and Kamara during his last few years in his prime.

So your quote is confusing because I never said what you are implying.

No, this is what you were responding to. He said he'd give up a late 1st for Ingram. 2nd for Marshall. You said I'd gladly give up scraps for an elite 21 year old RB. I have been corrected...there are shots at elite backs in the back half of rookie drafts but the chances of hitting on them is rare. So you're statement implied that with those picks Lukky would gladly trade away for one of them you could get an elite back. Sure, you could, but it's doubtful.