Eric Decker

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skip
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby skip » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:03 am

FiremanEd wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:47 am I don't understand how this could actually change anything.
Me either. Decker isn't some transcendent talent. He's a JAG who is going to do little more than take some targets away from other guys. Impact on Davis is zero. If you have an owner who loves to overreact to something like this who happens to also be the Davis owner, then I guess see if he's panicking.

Bottom line is owners need to stop expecting top end numbers from rookies. If you are then you are destined to be ever disappointed.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Sterling Archer » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:06 am

schiewerma21 wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:19 pm I don't think this can be a good thing for Davis but long term it's irrelevant. 4 viable targets for a team that doesn't pass lol.
This. And like someone else said, we're talking about dynasty but year 1 still matters, so it makes sense if this shifts SOME draft boards by 1 pick.

If you're not counting on Davis in 2017, then it shouldn't impact your draft board. If you were hoping for WR2 production right out of the gate, the odds of that just drastically decreased.

As for Matthews, I don't see how people can paint this as a good thing. Sorry, but it's not. His targets just took a minimum of a 30% hit. Maybe a lot more.

For Decker, this was far from ideal. His range of outcomes is pretty wide.

What's everyone's over/under on passing attempts for Mariota? I'd place it at 500.

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Sterling Archer » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:09 am

skip wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:03 am
FiremanEd wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:47 am I don't understand how this could actually change anything.
Me either. Decker isn't some transcendent talent. He's a JAG who is going to do little more than take some targets away from other guys. Impact on Davis is zero. If you have an owner who loves to overreact to something like this who happens to also be the Davis owner, then I guess see if he's panicking.

Bottom line is owners need to stop expecting top end numbers from rookies. If you are then you are destined to be ever disappointed.
:lol: :crazy: This kind of comment hurts credibility.

He's obviously not a JAG. But he is on a 1 year deal, so he should not greatly impact Davis' dynasty value. However, acting like year 1 doesn't matter to anyone is a bit silly. It does matter to some people, so who are we to fault them if this tweaks their perceived value of him a little bit?

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby dlf_jules » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:32 am

Sterling Archer wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:06 am What's everyone's over/under on passing attempts for Mariota? I'd place it at 500.
Does that include missing time? The Titans threw 504 times in 2016. I have a hard time predicting them any lower, considering only four teams threw less often and they added two high-profile WRs this offseason. I'd set the team o/u at 530--still bottom 20% league wide.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby FiremanEd » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:44 am

We can't fault people, as it is their own approach, but I simply don't agree. I view it that you either like Davis for the big picture or you prefer someone else. If you prefer someone else it is likely because you like someone better already anyway, you need a RB, or you are looking for Year 1 production. The latter is not a great approach for rookies regardless, so if you were expecting a WR2 or something then you are better off having this news come now than be disappointed later anyway. I just don't think Year 1 should be the difference between the career of the two guys that which play different positions and likely should have had different expectations anyway. If he's going to Treadwell then that is a different story and irrelevant of one additional piece of competition...he simply wouldn't have been ready anyway. The Titans will still be his gig after this year and he'll still have the same foundational pieces around him.

If you are thinking about value then you're thinking that A) you want to protect yourself a year from now to move him, or B) want to risk a guy you actually prefer just so you can maybe trade for him later. I assume people aren't thinking that they will pass and then get him in a startup next year cheaper because that's irrelevant. The only piece of value is what you will do with them if that value is there. May be me, but i'm not trading my guy after year one even if his value goes up, and definitely not if he didn't get great production because he lost a few targets to a 1 year contract guy.

It is likely just a difference in what is driving the value shift and to whom. He's a tier 1 player regardless. I'm not saying people won't drop him based on this news, I'm saying that I wouldn't and people thinking big picture about the player shouldn't. If you want a RB then go for it, but he's the WR1 with the same long term outlook. The long-term is what you draft rookies for, otherwise you can just trade the pick for the production. That or you're drafting to secure immediate value and then moving him.

Good news is that even with such a discussion going on, perhaps you can mine some value in your draft and move down to the 1.03-1.04 based on the news...if you want to take such a risk.

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Goddard » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:22 am

If anything, it might hurt Murray/Henry and take away a couple of TDs, but should also open up the running game more. It obliviously helps Mariotta, hurts Mathews and maybe Walker to an extent, and doesn't impact Davis for Dynasty purposes.

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby GridironGuerilla » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:31 am

I agree. As a Decker owner I'm happier with him in Tennessee than in NY, and as a Davis owner this does nothing to effect my outlook of his NFL career.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:48 am

skip wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:03 am
FiremanEd wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:47 am I don't understand how this could actually change anything.
Decker isn't some transcendent talent. He's a JAG...
Skip, stop drinking and posting ;)

In all seriousness, Decker is definitely above average. He's probably a top 20 WR on talent alone.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Novacane » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:17 am

If you are moving davis down your rankings because of the decker signing, you are doing it wrong. I think this helps his development long-term for 2 reasons: (1) he gets to learn from a great receiver and (2) it takes away the pressure of having to be a 1-2 in the first year which should help with his confidence. As a Decker owner, I am not crazy about the spot but it could have been worse.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby jcc6fd » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:24 am

Maybe saying this in any way should lower Davis in your rankings is the wrong way of wording this. I haven't seen anyone suggest he should be lower than 1.02 related to the Decker signing. However there is a fairly even split between taking him or Fournette at 1.01, so this could be the small thing that helps you make that decision. I'm totally on board with this not affecting Davis's long term value in the least, but it does affect his 2017 target share, which will lower his ADP and 2018 offseason value, while Fournette will only see his value go up if he goes on to produce as projected.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:05 pm

As a contender who drafted Davis at 2 this certainly hurts a little. Less production means less trade value. Long term, obviously this is meaningless.

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:36 pm

Sterling Archer wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:09 am
skip wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:03 am
FiremanEd wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:47 am I don't understand how this could actually change anything.
Me either. Decker isn't some transcendent talent. He's a JAG who is going to do little more than take some targets away from other guys. Impact on Davis is zero. If you have an owner who loves to overreact to something like this who happens to also be the Davis owner, then I guess see if he's panicking.

Bottom line is owners need to stop expecting top end numbers from rookies. If you are then you are destined to be ever disappointed.
:lol: :crazy: This kind of comment hurts credibility.

He's obviously not a JAG. But he is on a 1 year deal, so he should not greatly impact Davis' dynasty value. However, acting like year 1 doesn't matter to anyone is a bit silly. It does matter to some people, so who are we to fault them if this tweaks their perceived value of him a little bit?
Yeah, Decker isn't a JAG. If we DQ last season, where he only missed 3 games, then he's averaged at least 70+ catches, 1000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Mariota was already one of the most efficient redzone QB's in the league. And now, he has an awesome redzone option in Decker.

I don't think it's out of the question that Decker can lead the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns this year.

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Slevin Kelevra » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:34 am

Decker gets a $1.35 million base salary and $2.5 million signing bonus. Another $1.5 million is available via incentives.

:think:

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Re: Eric Decker

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:00 pm

Slevin Kelevra wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:34 am Decker gets a $1.35 million base salary and $2.5 million signing bonus. Another $1.5 million is available via incentives.

:think:
I think in some ways this is what you'd consider a "hometown" discount. He lives in Tennessee and has wanted to play there. He's on the back end of his career, and who knows how many more years he actually wants to play? I wouldn't consider the contract a reflection of his perceived value or worth to the Titans.
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Re: Eric Decker

Postby zuzaque » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:56 pm

What are we thinking of Decker? Will he bounce back, or are we seeing the beginning of the end?


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