Breshad Perriman Outlook

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jdomer2403
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Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby jdomer2403 » Tue May 30, 2017 4:36 pm

Looking for some 2017 stat projections on Breshad Perriman with a wide open depth chart in Baltimore. Targets available with the departure of Smith and Aiken are 152. Does Breshad take the WR #1 or does Wallace take the top spot and increase his 116 targets from last season?
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby StableOfRBs » Tue May 30, 2017 4:43 pm

jdomer2403 wrote:
Tue May 30, 2017 4:36 pm
Looking for some 2017 stat projections on Breshad Perriman with a wide open depth chart in Baltimore. Targets available with the departure of Smith and Aiken are 152. Does Breshad take the WR #1 or does Wallace take the top spot and increase his 116 targets from last season?
https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/ ... 5861919744

Mike Clay has done these for most, if not all, of the NFL teams for this coming season, half of those 152 going to Woodhead seems fair to me and Breshad doubling up on his 66 targets from last year could easily happen but with his 50% catch rate and 15 YPR from last year I don't seem him getting much more than 900 yards and like 7 TDs or so, good enough for a WR2 in most 12 team leagues but he could get pushed under WR24 in a PPR if he doesn't end up with more than 60 catches
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby Madadamus » Tue May 30, 2017 5:56 pm

I'm probably a bit biased but I think he's poised for a "breakout" year. The Ravens offense hasn't really produced fantasy stars under Flacco, especially at receiver, but the offense has certainly been more aggressive in recent years. They are up there at the top of the league as far as passing attempts, although the efficiency and total yards is pretty poor.

Last year, Smith was the safety valve and Wallace was more of the deep threat. I think Wallace might be asked to be more of a possession receiver as a veteran since they don't really have one. I guess Woodhead could be that option, and Pitta is still a chain mover as a catch and fall guy.

But I think Perriman could double his production, which would be about 65 catches for 1000 yards and 6 TD's. That would put him in low WR2 range and I think it's possible. Now, he did get 66 targets so getting 132 targets is probably a stretch, but he only caught 50% of his passes. If he gets up to 55% or so that brings the number down to 120 which is route around what Wallace got last year.

Perriman will definitely be a boom/bust option though. His route running and hands are still a work in progress, and he'll be a down the field big play guy. He will have some big weeks, but I think he'll have his fair share of struggles since he's really just entering year 2.

I don't think the Ravens were comfortable with Wallace and Perriman but the way the draft unfolded, I think they have to be now. He'll get a big opportunity this year and if he stays healthy he has the talent to make the most of it.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue May 30, 2017 10:00 pm

Never bank on a receiver with faulty hands. I think he maybe replicates his production, but doesn't produce anything fantasy viable
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby BuckeyeNation » Wed May 31, 2017 3:22 am

500ish yards in what was essentially his rookie campaign, and as the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game. A lot of his competition for targets left and BAL didn't do anything to bring in replacements. I don't see any of the in-house replacements as players who command targets. I could see his upside being that of Torrey Smith's good season when he was in BAL.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby dlf_jules » Wed May 31, 2017 7:33 am

Those vacated targets in Baltimore are misleading. The Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts in 2016. If they throw 80 fewer times, they'll still be in the top 10 in passes. Once Woodhead gets his share, there aren't many "extra" targets available to divvy up.

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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby Madadamus » Wed May 31, 2017 8:04 am

dlf_jules wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 7:33 am
Those vacated targets in Baltimore are misleading. The Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts in 2016. If they throw 80 fewer times, they'll still be in the top 10 in passes. Once Woodhead gets his share, there aren't many "extra" targets available to divvy up.
They also led the league in 2015 so I'm not too sure we can pencil in "80 fewer passes."
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby dlf_jules » Wed May 31, 2017 8:17 am

Madadamus wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 8:04 am
dlf_jules wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 7:33 am
Those vacated targets in Baltimore are misleading. The Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts in 2016. If they throw 80 fewer times, they'll still be in the top 10 in passes. Once Woodhead gets his share, there aren't many "extra" targets available to divvy up.
They also led the league in 2015 so I'm not too sure we can pencil in "80 fewer passes."
... with Trestman at OC, as he was to start 2016. Marty Mornhinweg was OC of some pass-heavy teams in the 2000s, but he's been middle of the road since. 600 attempts (79 fewer than 2016) is my median projected outcome.

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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby Madadamus » Wed May 31, 2017 8:28 am

dlf_jules wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 8:17 am
Madadamus wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 8:04 am
dlf_jules wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 7:33 am
Those vacated targets in Baltimore are misleading. The Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts in 2016. If they throw 80 fewer times, they'll still be in the top 10 in passes. Once Woodhead gets his share, there aren't many "extra" targets available to divvy up.
They also led the league in 2015 so I'm not too sure we can pencil in "80 fewer passes."
... with Trestman at OC, as he was to start 2016. Marty Mornhinweg was OC of some pass-heavy teams in the 2000s, but he's been middle of the road since. 600 attempts (79 fewer than 2016) is my median projected outcome.

I understand that but he was fired after 5 games. They still averaged over 40 passes a game under Mornhinweg.

They lack a run game and their offensive line is lacking. I think the Woodhead signing will be an extension of their run game.

I don't think they'll lead the league but I think their offense is evolving to more pass happy as the years go on.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby Goddard » Wed May 31, 2017 9:52 am

I think he can be a decent WR3.

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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby Sterling Archer » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:07 am

The fact that he was getting outsnapped by Aiken for WR3 duties speaks volumes to me. Not that I think Aiken is a bad player, but because the Ravens let Aiken walk in the offseason. So the coaching staff must not be that impressed with Perriman if they weren't trying to develop him last year at the expense of snaps to a player they weren't even going to bring back. He'll certainly be getting his shot this year, so he's got a chance to breakout and he'll probably have enough volume to produce at a WR4 level even if he sucks, but I'd say the odds of him breaking out are probably around 10%. I'm not familiar enough with the Baltimore WR depth chart, but I feel like they don't have anyone to compete with him, so his odds of getting benched are probably only around 10%, too. So I think the most likely scenario is that he has a mediocre year where he has a few big games and quite a few duds... then Baltimore drafts/signs some players to take over for him and Wallace in 2018.

Also, I think Baltimore exercised like an $8M option to bring Wallace back this year, so they were really hungry for help at WR. I could see them making a run at Jeffery next year if he stays healthy this year.

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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby sehon4 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:15 pm

I see Perriman averaging about 9 target per game = 144 over 16 games. I see his catch ratio to be around 55% = 80 catches with an average of 15 yards per catch with his deep speed = 1,200 yards with 7-9 TDs.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby MEuRaH » Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:24 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Tue May 30, 2017 10:00 pm
Never bank on a receiver with faulty hands.
Terrell Owens would like to have a word with you.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby ericanadian » Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:28 pm

Perriman hasn't done well after the catch and hasn't been very efficient on any level of the field. Sure, there's reason to be positive because Baltimore didn't put much effort into acquiring receiving talent, but Baltimore never puts much effort into acquiring receiving talent. Their MO has been to grab old proven talent that many in the league regard as washed up (Wallace, Steve Smith, Boldin) and supplement them with young late round players. Torrey Smith is the only other guy they've drafted high in the last ten years and he's largely disappointed to date.
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Re: Breshad Perriman Outlook

Postby StableOfRBs » Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:40 pm

wait til Maclin shows up
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