Marlon mack

[drbuttermaker]

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

I have him at WR3 too. While I do not understand why he is falling, I am happy to see it.

[SteveVolk]

I love Mack in the short term and would be shocked if he does not flash enough to increase his value and generate some buzz. I am a bit different in that I like him in the long-term, or at least hold out the possibility that he could do this thing called "improve." I think we forget sometimes these guys aren't finished products and Mack, having excelled in college, might get better at picking his holes and taking the 4 or 5 yard gains available to him when the old tricks he used in college aren't working to generate the big plays that were his specialty.
He is also playing under, so to speak, Frank Gore, who could teach him a thousand things.
That said, I was very disappointed I did not get him in my most recent rookie draft, because I see the safe play here as a pick-and-flip type scenario. —Best, Steve

[stoneghost28]

Chris Godwin. His rookie ADP has dropped since the NFL draft due to landing in TB. Desean Jackson is 30 and won't be around forever. I think long term, Godwin has high end WR2 upside. He has elite athleticism, great hands and has the physicality to play inside or outside. I believe he will be a good WR in the league and for a mid to late 2nd, even 3rd from what I'm hearing, he's a great value.

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

Kamara is another guy that I like and think his value took a hit due to his landing spot (which I don't really mind if you're willing to wait a year).

I think Godwin is a combo of a dynasty relevant argument: very little chance of being the #1 option in the offense

and a non-dynasty relevant argument that still wins over people: too low on depth chart RIGHT NOW to be relevant.

I don't think the latter argument holds water. This is dynasty, not redraft, and to some extent it's also a weak argument because Desean has an extensive history of soft tissue injuries, and TE's rarely produce early (although howard could be an exception). Jackson's deal is largely in guaranteed money so I could see them booting him by 2019 as well.

Just don't understand why Godwin not being productive early is such a stock killer. Again, aren't we playing for year(s) plural? Godwin won't be 22 till after his rookie year.

[kmbryant09]

Chris Godwin. His rookie ADP has dropped since the NFL draft due to landing in TB. Desean Jackson is 30 and won't be around forever. I think long term, Godwin has high end WR2 upside. He has elite athleticism, great hands and has the physicality to play inside or outside. I believe he will be a good WR in the league and for a mid to late 2nd, even 3rd from what I'm hearing, he's a great value.

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

Kamara is another guy that I like and think his value took a hit due to his landing spot (which I don't really mind if you're willing to wait a year).

I think Godwin is a combo of a dynasty relevant argument: very little chance of being the #1 option in the offense

and a non-dynasty relevant argument that still wins over people: too low on depth chart RIGHT NOW to be relevant.

I don't think the latter argument holds water. This is dynasty, not redraft, and to some extent it's also a weak argument because Desean has an extensive history of soft tissue injuries, and TE's rarely produce early (although howard could be an exception). Jackson's deal is largely in guaranteed money so I could see them booting him by 2019 as well.

Just don't understand why Godwin not being productive early is such a stock killer. Again, aren't we playing for year(s) plural? Godwin won't be 22 till after his rookie year.

Just to play devil's advocate - it's very difficult to roster a player for 2+ seasons who's short-term production is non-existent and long-term upside is capped as a #2 on his own team.

[Goddard]

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

Kamara is another guy that I like and think his value took a hit due to his landing spot (which I don't really mind if you're willing to wait a year).

I think Godwin is a combo of a dynasty relevant argument: very little chance of being the #1 option in the offense

and a non-dynasty relevant argument that still wins over people: too low on depth chart RIGHT NOW to be relevant.

I don't think the latter argument holds water. This is dynasty, not redraft, and to some extent it's also a weak argument because Desean has an extensive history of soft tissue injuries, and TE's rarely produce early (although howard could be an exception). Jackson's deal is largely in guaranteed money so I could see them booting him by 2019 as well.

Just don't understand why Godwin not being productive early is such a stock killer. Again, aren't we playing for year(s) plural? Godwin won't be 22 till after his rookie year.

Just to play devil's advocate - it's very difficult to roster a player for 2+ seasons who's short-term production is non-existent and long-term upside is capped as a #2 on his own team.

That depends on roster sizes. I'd rather hold a young player for 2 years and hope he produces over some middling player who's putting up 8 ppg. That's not going to help me win anything. Give me the guy who has potential to be very good. And just because he might never be the #1 option on his team (this is assuming he stays in TB or Evans stays in TB their whole career), doesn't mean they can't be productive fantasy WRs.

[James McGhee]

So, I'm in two dynasty leagues. One has 15 man rosters (excluding K/DST) and the league set up (which I won't delve into here) puts a premium on immediate production. In that league I wouldn't dream of taking Godwin. I don't have roster room to wait on a year two (or three) breakout. But, in my other league with 30 man rosters, I drafted him in the start up and will be happy to roster him for multiple years to see if he lives up to what I hink his potential is. How he's valued all depends on the league and your roster construction and philosophy.

[Goddard]

So, I'm in two dynasty leagues. One has 15 man rosters (excluding K/DST) and the league set up (which I won't delve into here) puts a premium on immediate production. In that league I wouldn't dream of taking Godwin. I don't have roster room to wait on a year two (or three) breakout. But, in my other league with 30 man rosters, I drafted him in the start up and will be happy to roster him for multiple years to see if he lives up to what I hink his potential is. How he's valued all depends on the league and your roster construction and philosophy.

Completely agree, which is why I mentioned in my post above that it depends on roster size. However, what I'm having trouble understanding is when lesser rookies by a huge margin are being taken ahead of Godwin. Roster size has nothing to do with any of that. This is intended to you James, but just something I've seen in recent drafts. Just doesn't make sense to me.

[maxhyde]

How exactly are we determining 'lesser rookies by a huge margin'?

[Weeman]

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

Kamara is another guy that I like and think his value took a hit due to his landing spot (which I don't really mind if you're willing to wait a year).

I think Godwin is a combo of a dynasty relevant argument: very little chance of being the #1 option in the offense

and a non-dynasty relevant argument that still wins over people: too low on depth chart RIGHT NOW to be relevant.

I don't think the latter argument holds water. This is dynasty, not redraft, and to some extent it's also a weak argument because Desean has an extensive history of soft tissue injuries, and TE's rarely produce early (although howard could be an exception). Jackson's deal is largely in guaranteed money so I could see them booting him by 2019 as well.

Just don't understand why Godwin not being productive early is such a stock killer. Again, aren't we playing for year(s) plural? Godwin won't be 22 till after his rookie year.

Just to play devil's advocate - it's very difficult to roster a player for 2+ seasons who's short-term production is non-existent and long-term upside is capped as a #2 on his own team.

That last comment I can greatly appreciate as a Godwin owner. I hate these clichés to many mouths to feed. It is very possible that high powered offenses support two WR1/2s range. It also depends on your depth of roster, reasonable expectations for a player of his metrics/production/skill set & your trading activity factors... If you make a ton of trades then high upside waiting in the wing type players are grossly pointless to you. You'd rather scoop up the Maclin or Garcon some idiot in the league drops because their old but basically productive upside. So maybe a guy like Ardarius Stewart. But drafting Zay Jones, Samuel guys that are instant WR2's is what you're advocating.

It's interesting, but for me I've seen people wait years for Josh Gordon & countless other prospects to pan out. If my starting line-up is set & I have depth. I'd wait for player that impressed as a top 3 WR in the combine & in games. I did a 2 rd draft & snagged him off the wire. I love that.

[Goddard]

How exactly are we determining 'lesser rookies by a huge margin'?

Guys that were drafted 2-3 rounds after him and are ranked or have ADPs way below his.

[maxhyde]

How exactly are we determining 'lesser rookies by a huge margin'?

Guys that were drafted 2-3 rounds after him and are ranked or have ADPs way below his.

So then right now Amara Darboh is the best value in fantasy...drafted in the 3rd and he is undrafted in many of my drafts.

Also Kupp drafted earlier than Godwin and has yet to be drafted ahead of him in my fantasy drafts same with Ardarius Stewart. Evey year fantasy drafters pick a few favorites and when the NFL disagrees they stick to their analysis over the NFL's...sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but doesn't make them 'lesser prospects by a huge margin'

This is not new. Comparing 3rd round WR vs 4th and 5th round RB's happens every year because fantasy requires the position and it is thin so fantasy values them more than the NFL. We (in fantasy) value QB's less than the NFL. Just a numbers game. I mean people are taking 2nd round RB's over almost every WR in the draft and there were 3 drafted in the top 10.

[Goddard]

How exactly are we determining 'lesser rookies by a huge margin'?

Guys that were drafted 2-3 rounds after him and are ranked or have ADPs way below his.

So then right now Amara Darboh is the best value in fantasy...drafted in the 3rd and he is undrafted in many of my drafts.

Also Kupp drafted earlier than Godwin and has yet to be drafted ahead of him in my fantasy drafts same with Ardarius Stewart. Evey year fantasy drafters pick a few favorites and when the NFL disagrees they stick to their analysis over the NFL's...sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but doesn't make them 'lesser prospects by a huge margin'

This is not new. Comparing 3rd round WR vs 4th and 5th round RB's happens every year because fantasy requires the position and it is thin so fantasy values them more than the NFL. We (in fantasy) value QB's less than the NFL. Just a numbers game. I mean people are taking 2nd round RB's over almost every WR in the draft and there were 3 drafted in the top 10.

I'm not only talking about guys taken after him in the draft. I've taken players plenty that were drafted after other players. But when someone has an average rookie ADP of 4-5th round and the other is an early 2nd rounder, it's weird to see the guy with the early 2nd round ADP dropping past the 4-5th round guys.

[maxhyde]

Situation changes a great many things in fantasy. Whether it should or not, is a different discussion, it does impact fantasy drafts.

I can only speak for myself but I find my ego sometimes wants to be right on my take on a guy when reason says it isn't the smart play...but I am not bound to always being smart or safe when I draft so I do what I feel I must for that team in that league.

[kmbryant09]

As the originator of this thread, I figured I'd bump it half-way through pre-season.

It was disappointing that Mack didn't play in Week 1 (pre-season), but I wanted to comment on his performance against Dallas in Week 2. In case you missed it, he rushed 5 times for 45 yards; caught 2 passes for 14 yards. He also had a ~15 yard screen pass called back because of penalty.

He looked explosive. On one play, he was met at the line-of-scrimmage in the hole by the MLB, and Mack juked him out of his shoes with a move that Shady McCoy has made a career out of. All of his carries came between the tackles, and he consistently made defenders miss and finished his run with power.

The bad news is that he played exclusively with back-ups, and even came off the field on obvious passing situations. But his natural explosiveness & athleticism really stood out in this game. If you believe in his talent, he's a definite buy-now. Even if you don't believe in his talent, there's still a window to buy him with plans to flip him later in the season or next off-season when his value will inevitably rise.

Discuss!

[Nanananananana]

I have 1 share and I'm glad he looked good. I haven't watched the game yet but I'm looking forward to now.