2017 Running Back Report

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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maxhyde
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby maxhyde » Wed May 24, 2017 10:07 am

I could care less if the method uses a magic wand...

I read it the same way I read any other article and yes I am curious and more skeptical because I can't see any correlation year to year yet. Just means I generally stick with what I think over it and where it happens to agree with my own assessment I can say it is coincidence.

I still appreciate the fact he takes the time to share his findings with others even without the methods.

Cook is going to break a ton of current RB success models if he succeeds more than Foreman busting is going to blow up any imo
Last edited by maxhyde on Wed May 24, 2017 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Balzac » Wed May 24, 2017 10:22 am

The main issue with the "anti" posters is that they are generally being plain rude. It is fine and good to ask questions and promote conversation. I'm sure many posts through the years have helped DD fine tune his process. But man are a lot of you rude as hell.

For something so random and unknown a lot of people on these forums act like their opinion is the law and any who oppose should be treated like poop.

Good work DD. As with all fantasy analysis and advice I will be skeptical but interested in your findings.
Last edited by Balzac on Wed May 24, 2017 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Weeman » Wed May 24, 2017 10:23 am

Today i learned....

Cook is Bishop Sankey...
Cmac is taiwan & not on your reliable pass catcher list??
Mixon is a fake bellcow...

And the RB Foreman who has Eddie Lacy type weight problems is going to be a stud (forget he can't pass protect? & Even when he usurps Miller isn't an ideal 50+ catching back over Miller) & that guy Fournette who was drafted #4... the first rb off the board is generally a stud... Hedging your bets.

Please tell me who is a bust in this class & you provide zero information on Kamara, Perine & Mack ect. Because of course their not top 10 backs in this class. #validity

You changed results & took rbs out, then speculated who you could add in... # reliability

Your test results lack validity & reliability. If your going to do research. Accept the good, bad & ugly. No one is right all of the time. But being right most of the time will get my attention or true to your grading scale. You ignored valid test subjects, changed outliers, let some metrics (ex.bench press) create a bias like with Cmac or overhyped players. Your bleep bloop bleep thing is fine. But the breakdowns provide more insight as to how & why. An interesting read regardless & something we should all be looking to do. Cheers!

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Weeman » Wed May 24, 2017 10:28 am

Lots of posts. I didn't read on here. Skimmed the last few & wanted to quickly say...

My general sarcastic undertone is how I get my point across. I generally appreciate the vulnerability & efforts of your work DD & want to point out a different perspective. That may help your works credibility through my scope of it.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 24, 2017 10:43 am

schiewerma21 wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 9:41 am DD has the ease of changing his model in hindsight as he goes. He had Orleans darkwa in his stud column years ago and many other players in the top columns that have been moved (gurley another one this year)
Yes, and you'll remember guys like Bishop Sankey and Tre Mason as well. Back in the old days, once I identified the key areas that predict stud Rb's I assigned point values to those metrics. Reach a certain number of points and you're set. Needless to say, it worked well but not well enough. No formula or points system will give you the accuracy that we need. I switched to a more "profile" approach which (and if you'll allow me to toot my own horn) was basically a stroke of genius and is what I'm still using today. Sankey and Mason did reach the requisite number of points, but (similarly to Le'Veon Bell) they did it in a way no other stud has aka their overall profile was different. Now I don't have data dating back 20 years so I had to use them as test cases, there was no other alternative. They flunked, obviously, and so I simply eliminate that profile as being predictive of a stud RB. Now to the average person reading this they would say "errmagawwwhd he's changing everything it's not scientific," and I will address that a little further down. As eric previously said, if i was gunning for a Nobel Peace Prize, maybe it's a flawed methodology. However all I'm trying to do is avoid busts and target studs at the RB position for fantasy football. And even though finding the solution was an arduous process that took years, it's ultimately so damn simple you would probably fall out of your chair if I told you. That's why I just laugh at these whiny passive-aggressive comments demanding I show my methodology. New flash folks. IT'S ALL HERE. If you were actually paying attention and used a modicum of critical thinking you would have figured it out by now, or at the very least know which questions to ask. Ok, that said let's revisit everyone being freaked out by changes. You shouldn't be freaked out because the changes only affect the particular set of profiles being changed. Each profile operates independently of one another even though they all lead to the same result (end result being a stud RB). Let me explain it this way. You're hiking on a trail, the trail splits into 2 separate paths to go around a big tree and then join to form 1 path again after the tree. Now the paths are different but they get you to the same place. Let's say the newer path, we'll call it the Bishop Sankey path, is now blocked by a huge boulder. You can't use that path, but the other path (let's name it the D'Onta Foreman path) has been there for ages and ages, untouched, and still gets you to your destination around the tree. What happens on one particular path has no affect on the others. So I just shake my head when people spew their uneducated nonsense about how the entire exercise is invalidated if I make any changes. They haven't the first clue as to what they're talking about.

Balzac wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:22 am It is fine and good to ask questions and promote conversation. I'm sure many posts through the years have helped DD fine tune his process.
That is true. One of the more important revelations I had was from some actual constructive criticism noting that a few of the players weights were listed incorrectly. It was a pretty time consuming process to verify each players weight.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Wed May 24, 2017 11:21 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby IBall2 » Wed May 24, 2017 11:02 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:43 am
Balzac wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:22 am It is fine and good to ask questions and promote conversation. I'm sure many posts through the years have helped DD fine tune his process.
That is true. One of the more important revelations I had was from some actual constructive criticism noting that a few of the players weights were listed incorrectly. It was a pretty time consuming process to verify each players weight.
I know this would be very time consuming but do you go back and change players weights as the seasons go on to update the model? Like how Bell dropped 10-20lbs after his first season or how Cheeseburger Lacy added on 30lbs each season?

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby AZK » Wed May 24, 2017 11:06 am

Weeman wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:23 am Today i learned....

Cook is Bishop Sankey...
Cmac is taiwan & not on your reliable pass catcher list??
Mixon is a fake bellcow...

And the RB Foreman who has Eddie Lacy type weight problems is going to be a stud (forget he can't pass protect? & Even when he usurps Miller isn't an ideal 50+ catching back over Miller) & that guy Fournette who was drafted #4... the first rb off the board is generally a stud... Hedging your bets.

Please tell me who is a bust in this class & you provide zero information on Kamara, Perine & Mack ect. Because of course their not top 10 backs in this class. #validity

You changed results & took rbs out, then speculated who you could add in... # reliability

Your test results lack validity & reliability. If your going to do research. Accept the good, bad & ugly. No one is right all of the time. But being right most of the time will get my attention or true to your grading scale. You ignored valid test subjects, changed outliers, let some metrics (ex.bench press) create a bias like with Cmac or overhyped players. Your bleep bloop bleep thing is fine. But the breakdowns provide more insight as to how & why. An interesting read regardless & something we should all be looking to do. Cheers!
Whoa dude, you seem to have some pent up aggression.
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 24, 2017 11:12 am

IBall2 wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 11:02 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:43 am
Balzac wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 10:22 am It is fine and good to ask questions and promote conversation. I'm sure many posts through the years have helped DD fine tune his process.
That is true. One of the more important revelations I had was from some actual constructive criticism noting that a few of the players weights were listed incorrectly. It was a pretty time consuming process to verify each players weight.
I know this would be very time consuming but do you go back and change players weights as the seasons go on to update the model?
Absolutely not. I need the weight of the player at the time of athletic testing (so combine weight for example). The problem I ran into was just as you described, some of the weights were updated to a players playing weight and not what their weight was at the combine or pro-day. This might seem counter-intuitive but it's actually quite important.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Weeman » Wed May 24, 2017 11:20 am

Hmmm,
I once punched a Lemur in the face...

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maxhyde
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby maxhyde » Wed May 24, 2017 11:22 am

...and it isn't boxing so it isn't like they have public weigh-ins before each game. How do we know what their college playing weight is?
The only apples to apples comparison we have is combine weigh-ins but I would imagine a pro-day weight would do if nothing else if verified by one or two of the same people?

I struggle with proday vs combine metrics too so hard for me to compare prospects when I don't have the same level of trust in numbers from one to the other.

Anyway I know I am far too lazy to do any of this type of analysis so I appreciate anyone who is willing to put the time and share any part of the result.

I will take my lumps in the draft when I use my simplistic methods to pick my favorites
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 24, 2017 11:26 am

maxhyde wrote: Wed May 24, 2017 11:22 am ...and it isn't boxing so it isn't like they have public weigh-ins before each game. How do we know what their college playing weight is?
It doesn't matter what their playing weight is.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby maxhyde » Wed May 24, 2017 11:34 am

Interesting but understood
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby GridironGuerilla » Wed May 24, 2017 11:38 am

Brutal.
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Valhalla » Wed May 24, 2017 12:04 pm

A lot of bickering...

DD, I like the work. I appreciate you posting it. I loved the call on DJ and was with you back then in thinking he was a potential stud. Keep putting your thoughts out there for us. Scrutiny will always be there, but that's just something to shrug off, which it seems you know.

I think what gets some people up in arms is bragging (for lack of a better word) about the 80% hit rate. If I understand it, you have an adapting, success-fitting model always open to tweaks as new info comes in. That's awesome. The very reason your model hit 80% over the last few years is because you adapt your model to fit the successful RBs. Correct me if I misunderstood you, but you told us that you update the model if a particular RB style that was excluded proves effective, and likewise if a previously included RB proves ineffective. This in effect pulls in successes and weeds out prior mistakes. I am not saying there is ANYTHING wrong with updating the model to be a model of what has succeeded recently in the NFL. That is actually pretty cool. Yet for an adapting, success-fitting model, 80% should be EXPECTED, not something to be in awe of.

Regardless, solid work. I haven't created any success-fitting models, and you have. I really do appreciate you sharing it, and I'm a little more intrigued to watch some more of Foreman.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby ericanadian » Wed May 24, 2017 2:51 pm

Concept Coop wrote: Tue May 23, 2017 7:55 pm
ericanadian wrote: Tue May 23, 2017 3:30 pm How many of those billions do you think are being spent on developing statistical models? The NFL strikes me as being in the same situation as baseball was before the statistical revolution...
You're really betting on this guy having created an algorithm that bests the collective NFL as a market for running backs? Without him explaining anything about it? That's really more likely to you than that very same guy being mistaken or dishonest?

I had a co-worker once who claimed--as a result of a formula he created--to have a 60% rate against the spread on college basketball games. Want to know how I knew he was full of bleep? He was my co-worker.
Am I drafting Foreman ahead of McCaffrey or Mixon? No, probably not. As I said, draft round is still the best statistical indicator. However, I'm also not going to say the information has zero value and I'll absolutely move Foreman ahead of a guy like Marlon Mack based on it.

If Foreman does hit, do you maintain your skepticism or do you continue to insist that scouts know best?
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