2017 Running Back Report

[GridironGuerilla]

[spotxc]

so basically u have to have a certain size based speed score combined with college production it looks like, and can't fall past the 3rd rd in draft also

?? Close?

[clarion contrarion]

This is exactly why I don't provide details.

well I think much of the blow back you get after claiming an 80% hit rate is due to not having a published method and saying just trust me I have a method and it is massively better than the pro personnel people . I have mentioned a few guys and the response ... not enough college production ....too slow ....too fat or whatever.
Now bell is a hit when in past years he wasn't even at his massive college weight and production he was an outlier then he loses 25 LBS and goes off on a per game basis after looking like a bum for the most part as a rookie. Gurley was on the list and then not (explained away I know but still ?). You have david johnson street cred that goes without saying but many were saying they really liked him as his talent is apparent but what if he landed behind that dog^*^* RAMS OLINE in fisher's offense and gurley wound up in dallas how would the perception be different today ? Or bell landed with an Oline /rb coach that expected him to get to and through the hole and sat his bleep down the 1st or 2nd time he danced around and got tackled behind the line . I have been watching rbs for 45 + years and it is what I see best a lot of scouts have been doing it longer and saying you have an 80% doesn't past the sniff test to me or many others . While I admire your work I think to get the real respect you will need to monetize it and publish it for it ever to be taken real seriously by those of us that will never just buy a truck load of "trust me " sight unseen.
I get that your method is yours and yours alone and you have the right to do with it as you wish but you cannot keep it KFC recipe secret and then not expect some skepticism when 2 seemingly very similar prospects are mentioned and 1 is your guy and 1 isn't . I think rather than entertaining fanboys for free on here you should just charge for your list as the ones willing to accept the "TRUST ME ' line will gladly pay you and you will have to answer endless questions from those who do not take trust me at face value.

[ImaRounder]

^not a bad idea

[Concept Coop]

I think people are looking at this the wrong way. DD has worked a formula. Foreman landed near the top. DD didn't just put him there because he felt like it, he also didn't remove him because of his draft pedigree. He may fail in the NFL and that will alter the %of hit rate in future and not the other way round. I don't think DD is personally claiming there is a 0% chance of foreman busting, only that he landed in that zone in the formula. he has done the maths and the players landed where they landed, now we wait and see. Cmac also fell out because he doesn't fit the formula well and not because DD is a cmac hater. This isn't personal it's statistics.

Show me the statistics then. He hasn't done that. He's claiming to have bested the collective NFL by a large margin--in predicting RB success. He just said that Forman has a bust rate close to 0%. Those are his words. Why are we giving lending him any more credibility than the spam in our inboxes that claims to know when price of gold is about to explode? It's absolutely disingenuous to include the results of a training set in the results of a predictive model. I hope we're collectively more conservative with our financial portfolios.

[ImaRounder]

So don't listen to him Coop. Why is that so hard for you. There ain't nothing different from DD trying to spread the word if his report than the Jesus freaks spreading the word of God. You're an adult (using the term loosely), make a decision, and if he doesn't provide enough proof for you, don't listen. Stop ripping a guy because he feels he has found an answer. He did this because we asked, as a community. Regardless if you take his advice, at the very least the report is entertaining.

[Concept Coop]

How many of those billions do you think are being spent on developing statistical models? The NFL strikes me as being in the same situation as baseball was before the statistical revolution...

You're really betting on this guy having created an algorithm that bests the collective NFL as a market for running backs? Without him explaining anything about it? That's really more likely to you than that very same guy being mistaken or dishonest?

I had a co-worker once who claimed--as a result of a formula he created--to have a 60% rate against the spread on college basketball games. Want to know how I knew he was full of bleep? He was my co-worker.

[Concept Coop]

So don't listen to him Coop. Why is that so hard for you. There ain't nothing different from DD trying to spread the word if his report than the Jesus freaks spreading the word of God. You're an adult (using the term loosely), make a decision, and if he doesn't provide enough proof for you, don't listen. Stop ripping a guy because he feels he has found an answer. He did this because we asked, as a community. Regardless if you take his advice, at the very least the report is entertaining.

Take your own advice. You just called me a child. If my skepticism bothers you--move on.

[ImaRounder]

So don't listen to him Coop. Why is that so hard for you. There ain't nothing different from DD trying to spread the word if his report than the Jesus freaks spreading the word of God. You're an adult (using the term loosely), make a decision, and if he doesn't provide enough proof for you, don't listen. Stop ripping a guy because he feels he has found an answer. He did this because we asked, as a community. Regardless if you take his advice, at the very least the report is entertaining.

Take your own advice. You just called me a child. If my skepticism bothers you--move on.

But I am a child and have nothing better to do than pick on you

[Cameron Giles]

Show me the statistics then. He hasn't done that. He's claiming to have bested the collective NFL by a large margin--in predicting RB success. He just said that Forman has a bust rate close to 0%. Those are his words. Why are giving lending him any more credibility than the spam in our inboxes that claims to know when price of gold is about to explode? It's absolutely disingenuous to include the results of a training set in the results of a predictive model. I hope we're collectively more conservative with our financial portfolios.

I agree that it's a bold claim, but that distracts from the central idea.

Rookie drafts are crapshoots. Most dynasty owners are likely to select a player who never surpasses their rookie draft value. Mizelle's ADP does a great job of illustrating that. The best hit rate was the 2014 class, where only half of the Top 25 lost value. It's fun to talk about all these new players, but that reality gets lost in the discussion.

With that in mind, if you can find rational models that group rookies in the same area as stud fantasy performers, then it's worth a shot. I already liked Foreman way before DD's Research and Rotoviz' model, so it doesn't change anything for me. But, for those who didn't, it should at least warrant a double take on your research and scouting.

[Concept Coop]

So don't listen to him Coop. Why is that so hard for you. There ain't nothing different from DD trying to spread the word if his report than the Jesus freaks spreading the word of God. You're an adult (using the term loosely), make a decision, and if he doesn't provide enough proof for you, don't listen. Stop ripping a guy because he feels he has found an answer. He did this because we asked, as a community. Regardless if you take his advice, at the very least the report is entertaining.

Take your own advice. You just called me a child. If my skepticism bothers you--move on.

But I am a child and have nothing better to do than pick on you

I respect that.

[ImaRounder]

See, regardless of the "proof" from DD and rotoviz and UTH, I still HATE Foreman and love cook. The fun part for me is staying true to my work and letting the chips fall. It's the best part about fantasy

[Concept Coop]

Show me the statistics then. He hasn't done that. He's claiming to have bested the collective NFL by a large margin--in predicting RB success. He just said that Forman has a bust rate close to 0%. Those are his words. Why are giving lending him any more credibility than the spam in our inboxes that claims to know when price of gold is about to explode? It's absolutely disingenuous to include the results of a training set in the results of a predictive model. I hope we're collectively more conservative with our financial portfolios.

I agree that it's a bold claim, but that distracts from the central idea.

Rookie drafts are crapshoots. Most dynasty owners are likely to select a player who never surpasses their rookie draft value. Mizelle's ADP does a great job of illustrating that. The best hit rate was the 2014 class, where only half of the Top 25 lost value. It's fun to talk about all these new players, but that reality gets lost in the discussion.

With that in mind, if you can find rational models that group rookies in the same area as stud fantasy performers, then it's worth a shot. I already liked Foreman way before DD's Research and Rotoviz' model, so it doesn't change anything for me. But, for those who didn't, it should at least warrant a double take on your research and scouting.

The guy made an awesome call on David Johnson. Awesome. I don't mean to present an argument against him as a whole. By all means, listen to the guy who called his shot on David Johnson. I mean that sincerely. But don't backward engineer a system and make ridiculous claims about it as a predictive model. That's a ridiculous thing to do with a sample size of zero. Literally zero of the predictions have a change to come to fruition. Even DJ is only a third of the way to doing so.

[Concept Coop]

See, regardless of the "proof" from DD and rotoviz and UTH, I still HATE Foreman and love cook. The fun part for me is staying true to my work and letting the chips fall. It's the best part about fantasy

Sounds like neither of us are buying the 80% claim then.

[ImaRounder]

Right, but instead of bashing the man, I applaud him for his work and am happy he has found HIS "recipe for success". No different than reading any writers for DLF or any other site, they're all full of it. Nobody can predict the future. Just have fun with it.