2017 Running Back Report

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Even despite the low YPA, Foreman still jumps off the page to me in a big way. Reminds me of "good" Eddie Lacy. He offers so much more explosion and power than Miller without sacrificing any speed. But, like most rookies he has to improve pass protection and receiving instincts.

I haven't looked at this weeks snaps, but it seemed like Foreman got a rush on the majority of his snaps before week 3. I would guess that means: A) the defense probably knows it is going to be a run when he is in, so his efficiency is limited, and B) he probably doesn't know enough of the playbook or is not trusted in pass-blocking. I think that is promising for Foreman since he has room to improve his snaps, but also it is kind of a mystery when that will change.

[onetwothree]

Even if it's just dump offs where he's been wide open, he has shown good hands and gets going upfield quickly. Showing positives when he's been out there and so far no signs of ball handling issues.

[Servo]

As I mentioned before in the preseason and it's still held true, he has the knack for finding big plays. And everything revolving about his hands has been wayyyyyyyyyyyy overblown so far. With guys like him and Fournette, I think people need to look at the college offense as a whole before making such judgments that their hands are garbage.

I feel like Miller is going to get a pass because Houston's OL is so terrible.

[Valhalla]

Just fact checking myself real quick, the Big 12 had a grand total of ONE defensive player drafted in the first FIVE rounds of the 2017 NFL draft. Jordan Willis in round 3.

I am by no means trying to say that that's a be-all-end-all, but that definitely shows, to some extent, the lack of elite defensive talent in the big 12

This may just be showing an extreme bias NFL scouts and GMs have towards certain schools, and bias against other schools. Look at how many Alabama guys get drafted high every year. Many of them get pushed into playing time because they were drafted high and much is expected, but how often do those guys actually live up to their expectations?
A better measure of NFL talent in the college ranks would be to look at how often players from a conference go on to have a productive career in the NFL. Even by this measure, the smaller conferences are at a huge disadvantage to conferences like the SEC because their guys are often going undrafted. They may make a squad but will rarely be pushed into a role. Other guys that are supposed to (drafted to) succeed are pushed ahead of them.

I honestly don't know the answer to this...but if there's a decent amount of BIG10 veterans in the NFL, that's a testament to them lasting despite the bias against them early in their careers. If there's not much for BIG10 NFL veterans, well then maybe they truly are vastly inferior.

[rubber_duck]

Just fact checking myself real quick, the Big 12 had a grand total of ONE defensive player drafted in the first FIVE rounds of the 2017 NFL draft. Jordan Willis in round 3.

I am by no means trying to say that that's a be-all-end-all, but that definitely shows, to some extent, the lack of elite defensive talent in the big 12

This may just be showing an extreme bias NFL scouts and GMs have towards certain schools, and bias against other schools. Look at how many Alabama guys get drafted high every year. Many of them get pushed into playing time because they were drafted high and much is expected, but how often do those guys actually live up to their expectations?
A better measure of NFL talent in the college ranks would be to look at how often players from a conference go on to have a productive career in the NFL. Even by this measure, the smaller conferences are at a huge disadvantage to conferences like the SEC because their guys are often going undrafted. They may make a squad but will rarely be pushed into a role. Other guys that are supposed to (drafted to) succeed are pushed ahead of them.

I honestly don't know the answer to this...but if there's a decent amount of BIG10 veterans in the NFL, that's a testament to them lasting despite the bias against them early in their careers. If there's not much for BIG10 NFL veterans, well then maybe they truly are vastly inferior.

Quick correction -- Lukky was talking about the Big 12, not the the Big 10.
A second correction -- the Big 12 had two defensive players drafted in the 3rd round. Not great, but it is twice as good as 1.

Having said that, it is a little lazy to only look at the 2017 draft class. If you look at other past NFL drafts you will likely find that the Big 12 has approximately as many defensive players drafted as offensive players.

[lukkynumber13]

Just fact checking myself real quick, the Big 12 had a grand total of ONE defensive player drafted in the first FIVE rounds of the 2017 NFL draft. Jordan Willis in round 3.

I am by no means trying to say that that's a be-all-end-all, but that definitely shows, to some extent, the lack of elite defensive talent in the big 12

This may just be showing an extreme bias NFL scouts and GMs have towards certain schools, and bias against other schools. Look at how many Alabama guys get drafted high every year. Many of them get pushed into playing time because they were drafted high and much is expected, but how often do those guys actually live up to their expectations?
A better measure of NFL talent in the college ranks would be to look at how often players from a conference go on to have a productive career in the NFL. Even by this measure, the smaller conferences are at a huge disadvantage to conferences like the SEC because their guys are often going undrafted. They may make a squad but will rarely be pushed into a role. Other guys that are supposed to (drafted to) succeed are pushed ahead of them.

I honestly don't know the answer to this...but if there's a decent amount of BIG10 veterans in the NFL, that's a testament to them lasting despite the bias against them early in their careers. If there's not much for BIG10 NFL veterans, well then maybe they truly are vastly inferior.

Quick correction -- Lukky was talking about the Big 12, not the the Big 10.
A second correction -- the Big 12 had two defensive players drafted in the 3rd round. Not great, but it is twice as good as 1.

Having said that, it is a little lazy to only look at the 2017 draft class. If you look at other past NFL drafts you will likely find that the Big 12 has approximately as many defensive players drafted as offensive players.

Totally agree that looking at a single draft class doesn't mean much. It was just a comment that came up in passing where I said something to the effect of "I don't think the Big 12 had a single high draft pick on D", and then I figured I had better fact check myself.

I think the 2nd guy you're thinking of is Daeshon Hall? Texas A&M is SEC now tho

[rubber_duck]

Nope, Rasul Douglas out of West Virginia.
Still a poor showing for a conference like the Big 12 to have only 2 picks on that side of the ball.

[lukkynumber13]

Nope, Rasul Douglas out of West Virginia.
Still a poor showing for a conference like the Big 12 to have only 2 picks on that side of the ball.

How the heck did I miss him?? Good catch, sir

[Goirish374]

This may just be showing an extreme bias NFL scouts and GMs have towards certain schools, and bias against other schools.

To say nothing of that bias in the minds of dynasty players.

The issue isn't this collegiate conference defense vs that collegiate conference defense--its simply collegiate defense.

The approach to defense is radically different from the NFL. The limited time available for training, the proportion of that time dedicated to the development of players and instruction of skills fundamental to the positions, the relative paucity of offense-specific and schematic focus...the only difference ultimately boils down to a loose, unquantifiable, and largely assumed gross raw material advantage.

[Bot101]

Hey DD, does your report have a ranking of all the RBs on just this class? I have some of the guys in this class (in sig) but I was wondering if there are some others I can target. Fournette is on a Jags fan team, Foreman owner is dense as a brick in trades so both of those players are off the board.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hey DD, does your report have a ranking of all the RBs on just this class? I have some of the guys in this class (in sig) but I was wondering if there are some others I can target. Fournette is on a Jags fan team, Foreman owner is dense as a brick in trades so both of those players are off the board.

So Fournette, Foreman, Mixon, Hunt and Aaron Jones were all detailed in the original post. You have to get these guys in the draft, after the rookie draft is over they all become too expensive. One interesting guy is Corey Clement, he profiles as an Alfred Morris type of player. The main difference between the two is Morris was drafted and Clement was not, so it's not a complete apples to apples comp but it's pretty close. He looks pretty good and was getting offseason buzz. The sample size is very small (just 1 player really) so it's no guarantee, but for his price I think he's a worthwhile acquisition.

Outside of that there's really nothing I can say. Stock up on picks for next year? lol.

[PingPwng]

Does anyone think D'Onta Foreman can take over the HOU backfield by week 8 or 9? His workload has increased every week from the previous one.

Also any thoughts on this "hipster" article?

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/stor ... ta-foreman

[lukkynumber13]

Does anyone think D'Onta Foreman can take over the HOU backfield by week 8 or 9? His workload has increased every week from the previous one.

Barring an injury to Miller, no. Maybe in a year or 2, if Miller gets cut for financial reasons, but I'm not holding my breath.

The best we can hope for unless miller gets hurt, is that DF gets the Tevin Coleman/Derrick Henry treatment where he gets 12-15 touches per game and the occasional chance to ice the game (which I'll give you, he seems like a better potential closer than Miller, but I could be wrong)

[ericanadian]

Does anyone think D'Onta Foreman can take over the HOU backfield by week 8 or 9? His workload has increased every week from the previous one.

Barring an injury to Miller, no. Maybe in a year or 2, if Miller gets cut for financial reasons, but I'm not holding my breath.

The best we can hope for unless miller gets hurt, is that DF gets the Tevin Coleman/Derrick Henry treatment where he gets 12-15 touches per game and the occasional chance to ice the game (which I'll give you, he seems like a better potential closer than Miller, but I could be wrong)

I could see Foreman take over the 1A slot this year. Miller is no Murray and I could easily see him taking a back seat (might even help him a bit as I see him as misplaced as an efficiency guy playing a volume guy's role)

[maxhyde]

Does anyone think D'Onta Foreman can take over the HOU backfield by week 8 or 9? His workload has increased every week from the previous one.

Barring an injury to Miller, no. Maybe in a year or 2, if Miller gets cut for financial reasons, but I'm not holding my breath.

The best we can hope for unless miller gets hurt, is that DF gets the Tevin Coleman/Derrick Henry treatment where he gets 12-15 touches per game and the occasional chance to ice the game (which I'll give you, he seems like a better potential closer than Miller, but I could be wrong)

I could see Foreman take over the 1A slot this year. Miller is no Murray and I could easily see him taking a back seat (might even help him a bit as I see him as misplaced as an efficiency guy playing a volume guy's role)

Miller is no Murray but Texans OLine is not TEN Oline either. Foreman is getting stuffed on runs just like Miller. He is making some ground on his catches but seems like the TExans should pay their left tackle if they want to run the ball