2017 Running Back Report

[Space Cowboy]

This is such an excellent thread and thanks DDL for all
Of your insights. I wish I would of seen this before my draft! Do you like any of the rookie rbs that might be in free agency. Matt days, Elijah Mc, Jamal Williams.

Elijah and Jamal had golden opportunities and couldn't capitialize. Windows are short in the NFL.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is such an excellent thread and thanks DDL for all
Of your insights. I wish I would of seen this before my draft! Do you like any of the rookie rbs that might be in free agency. Matt days, Elijah Mc, Jamal Williams.

Glad you enjoyed it. I wouldn't say I "like" any of those guys, McGuire would probably be the most interesting though. I "like" Corey Clement to some extent, but as a UDFA it's admittedly a long shot.

[James McGhee]

Hey DD, is D'Onta Foreman a hold for you? I drafted him 2.01 this past offseason and I've been patiently holding on to him, understanding that he'd take some time to develop with Miller ahead of him. What I've seen from him on the field I like, and I expect him to have a breakout game sometime in the second half of the season - but am I alone in this assessment?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hey DD, is D'Onta Foreman a hold for you? I drafted him 2.01 this past offseason and I've been patiently holding on to him, understanding that he'd take some time to develop with Miller ahead of him. What I've seen from him on the field I like, and I expect him to have a breakout game sometime in the second half of the season - but am I alone in this assessment?

Obviously I believe so. It just might be a while a'la Derrick Henry. Foreman's YPC is higher than Millers. Foreman's yards created per touch and juke rate is top 16 in the league. He just needs the opportunity, and unfortunately walking out of practice (no matter how noble the cause) isn't going to benefit him in the short-term.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Figured I'd give my thoughts on some of the rookie Rb's now before I get caught up in next years rookies.

Fournette - On track to post a 1,000 yard season. The nagging injuries are not optimal but he's been putting up very good numbers in what I would deem a sub-optimal offensive situation (having said that, defense is obviously very good and allows the team to lean on the run game which is a positive). 4.0 YPC is not great but respectable given the nagging injuries and situation.

D'Onta Foreman - As a 3rd round pick behind an entrenched starter, we knew it'd be an uphill battle just like Derrick Henry in Tennessee. I liked what I saw from Foreman (4.2 YPC compared to 3.7 for Miller despite Foreman running into a base defense front at a league-leading rate) before his injury. The injury is obviously terrible. Watched it live and I think I traveled to the upside down for a while. Have to hope he can bounce back from it.

Dalvin Cook - Nobody wants to hear me nitpick so I'll just leave it at he was putting up good numbers before his injury. I know he became very valuable after a handful of starts, however I would be hesitant to buy. I am always wary of "less athletic" guys coming back from an injury. I'm not trying to compare Cook to Rawls or anything and nobody can predict this type of dramatic drop-off, but just as an example we saw how fast Rawls (who shares the same sparq score as Cook) became a turd after a significant injury.

Joe Mixon - We've seen some flashes to get excited but overall his numbers are pitiful. Offensive line supposedly stinks so it's hard to tell but even so it's never a good sign. As per the original post, I think he will put up some respectable fantasy seasons but is he as good as advertised? I continue to have my doubts.

Kareem Hunt - Amazing start which was also an amazing time to sell-high. His production and efficiency has waned significantly since his hot start. Is it due to the offense being "figured out" or could it be due to a RB who isn't very athletic (by NFL standards of course) being worn down as the season goes along. He's clearly a very good player but the odds are that he will only have 1-2 1,000 yard rushing seasons, this year likely already accounting for one of them.

Alex Collins - He was in the same grouping as Hunt and I probably should have taken more notice. He was virtually free and in hindsight I should have added him everywhere.

Aaron Jones - I like the guy and he's showed well but there's no guarantee of even a single 1,000 yard rushing season.

Christian McCaffrey - Early yet, but I feel like I nailed this one. He's more of a receiver than a running back. Right now it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes, he's doing very well for himself in PPR. We'll see how things progress down the road. I just personally just get very nervous when my running backs aren't that good at the thing that's in their job title. Actually running the football.

Alvin Kamara - You think people would have learned from Kareem Hunt not to go bonkers over-valuing these guys on a small sample size yet here we are. I get it, you need to adjust from what you see on the field. But there's adjustment and then there is over-correcting. Kamara has obviously been very productive for fantasy purposes but only once has he rushed for more than 10 times on the season. I've seen people saying he's their #1 RB in dynasty and I don't agree at all.


Overall this seems to be a very strong RB class. With that said, I believe only 2 rookies are on pace for 1,000 yards this season, Fournette and Hunt. It reminds you just how hard it is to do. Like with the 2014 WR class, not every promising RB from this class is going to continue to improve and be a stud. Some will go on to be studs, some will be solid fantasy assets for several years, and some will taper off. It won't be a one-size-fits-all situation.

Amost forgot, Le'Veon Bell has hit his 3rd 1,000 yard rushing season. I have been wary of him for the reasons previously explained so it's good to see him provide us with some confirmation.


edit: Completely forgot about Corey Clement. He profiled similarly to Alfred Morris and he's played pretty well this year on limited touches, earning his way towards fantasy relevancy. The Eagles bringing in Ajayi is a bit of a bummer though, it will be a muddled situation likely for at least another year.

[lukkynumber13]

Figured I'd give my thoughts on some of the rookie Rb's now before I get caught up in next years rookies.

Fournette - On track to post a 1,000 yard season. The nagging injuries are not optimal but he's been putting up very good numbers in what I would deem a sub-optimal offensive situation (having said that, defense is obviously very good and allows the team to lean on the run game which is a positive). 4.0 YPC is not great but respectable given the nagging injuries and situation.

D'Onta Foreman - As a 3rd round pick behind an entrenched starter, we knew it'd be an uphill battle just like Derrick Henry in Tennessee. I liked what I saw from Foreman (4.2 YPC compared to 3.7 for Miller despite Foreman running into a base defense front at a league-leading rate) before his injury. The injury is obviously terrible. Watched it live and I think I traveled to the upside down for a while. Have to hope he can bounce back from it.

Dalvin Cook - Nobody wants to hear me nitpick so I'll just leave it at he was putting up good numbers before his injury. I know he became very valuable after a handful of starts, however I would be hesitant to buy. I am always wary of "less athletic" guys coming back from an injury. I'm not trying to compare Cook to Rawls or anything and nobody can predict this type of dramatic drop-off, but just as an example we saw how fast Rawls (who shares the same sparq score as Cook) became a turd after a significant injury.

Joe Mixon - We've seen some flashes to get excited but overall his numbers are pitiful. Offensive line supposedly stinks so it's hard to tell but even so it's never a good sign. As per the original post, I think he will put up some respectable fantasy seasons but is he as good as advertised? I continue to have my doubts.

Kareem Hunt - Amazing start which was also an amazing time to sell-high. His production and efficiency has waned significantly since his hot start. Is it due to the offense being "figured out" or could it be due to a RB who isn't very athletic (by NFL standards of course) being worn down as the season goes along. He's clearly a very good player but the odds are that he will only have 1-2 1,000 yard rushing seasons, this year likely already accounting for one of them.

Alex Collins - He was in the same grouping as Hunt and I probably should have taken more notice. He was virtually free and in hindsight I should have added him everywhere.

Aaron Jones - I like the guy and he's showed well but there's no guarantee of even a single 1,000 yard rushing season.

Christian McCaffrey - Early yet, but I feel like I nailed this one. He's more of a receiver than a running back. Right now it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes, he's doing very well for himself in PPR. We'll see how things progress down the road. I just personally just get very nervous when my running backs aren't that good at the thing that's in their job title. Actually running the football.

Alvin Kamara - You think people would have learned from Kareem Hunt not to go bonkers over-valuing these guys on a small sample size yet here we are. I get it, you need to adjust from what you see on the field. But there's adjustment and then there is over-correcting. Kamara has obviously been very productive for fantasy purposes but only once has he rushed for more than 10 times on the season. I've seen people saying he's their #1 RB in dynasty and I don't agree at all.


Overall this seems to be a very strong RB class. With that said, I believe only 2 rookies are on pace for 1,000 yards this season, Fournette and Hunt. It reminds you just how hard it is to do. Like with the 2014 WR class, not every promising RB from this class is going to continue to improve and be a stud. Some will go on to be studs, some will be solid fantasy assets for several years, and some will taper off. It won't be a one-size-fits-all situation.

Amost forgot, Le'Veon Bell has hit his 3rd 1,000 yard rushing season. I have been wary of him for the reasons previously explained so it's good to see him provide us with some confirmation.

Alex Collins is a sophomore, you silly goose!

Thank you as always for your work! I appreciate the insights.

[Friction]

I actually agree with pretty much all of this, DD. Except, I think Mixon will end up being really good as long as Lewis gets canned and Cincy fixes their line.

[lukkynumber13]

I actually agree with pretty much all of this, DD. Except, I think Mixon will end up being really good as long as Lewis gets canned and Cincy fixes their line.

Yup. I get what the numbers say but I'm sorry - I don't think anyone can objectively watch him play multiple games and not believe he's a special talent.

He's for sure one of the 10-most talented RBs in the league IMO, and could crack the top 5 by midway of next year.

[Bot101]

Report is accurate as always DD thanks. Im also on the Mixon train. Especially the second half of the games hes played. Hes a very special talent.
Maybe I am in the minority, but if the Kamara owner offered him for Mixon (which he wont), I would reject it.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Alex Collins is a sophomore, you silly goose!

Ha, yeah. Le'Veon Bell isn't either . Just wanted to mention him because he and Jordan Howard looked woefully unspectacular to me on their college tape but are proving to be pretty good NFL assets and they both belong to the same group. Thought it was interesting and it's kind of an oversight in my tape-watching process it seems. Speaking of Jordan Howard, he's on pace for his 2nd 1,000 yard season this year so that will be interesting to watch going forward.

[onetwothree]

Interesting point on Dalvin Cook. I think there's going to be a buy window for him in a couple of my leagues and I had been debating going after him.

[Dynos]

just wondering i don't have perine but do you think he will be good long term?

he seems to be really high and down. Can drop pass, fumble, but can do well also.

[ravn88]

Very nice work, cant wait for the 2018 class..

I'll see if i can buy Fore man on the cheap this offseason..

[Dynasty DeLorean]

just wondering i don't have perine but do you think he will be good long term?

he seems to be really high and down. Can drop pass, fumble, but can do well also.

Yeah. It's really hard to say. I think his production will be capped as long as Chris Thompson is around. You'll kind of be hoping for a td in order for him to have a decent fantasy week.

[Space Cowboy]

Alex Collins is a sophomore, you silly goose!

Ha, yeah. Le'Veon Bell isn't either . Just wanted to mention him because he and Jordan Howard looked woefully unspectacular to me on their college tape but are proving to be pretty good NFL assets and they both belong to the same group. Thought it was interesting and it's kind of an oversight in my tape-watching process it seems. Speaking of Jordan Howard, he's on pace for his 2nd 1,000 yard season this year so that will be interesting to watch going forward.

Howard crossed 1,000 today. What an awesome talent. Love watching him.