2017 Running Back Report

[DJB]

Awesome stuff DD!!!!

[AussieMate]

Thanks dd, always enjoy the read. For people trying to pull apart the report, remember, DD doesn't have to release this report and doesn't ask for money (all donations were suggested by others not himself). If you go back and look up previous reports you'll find all the info DD is willing to share. You are free to disagree with players and in that case alter your ranking accordingly, for example I follow his report most years but I'm a fan of Gordon ( I like his work ethic, always trys to improve on things he gets wrong ) but I'm not going to argue the point here. What I'm saying is don't expect DD to explain himself about every little bit you don't like about the report.

[AussieMate]

Didn't mean this to sound like an attack on people, but last year there was alot of aggression towards the report and DD was debating whether he would bother with it again this year.

[nathanq42]

Every year guys get upset and question the process. DD youre the man! I'm trying to trade into the back of the first to pick up foreman now!
One difference between Charles and McCaffrey is the speed, McCaffrey is 4.48/9 Charles was 4.4 flat. That means while McCaffrey has better agility drills and can make people miss (with agility based moves) Charles can punish defenders much much harder once he gets free (which he does with his speed).

For me the pattern is size and/or speed, one cut type guys.

[lukkynumber13]

Every year guys get upset and question the process. DD youre the man! I'm trying to trade into the back of the first to pick up foreman now!

No way you should have to draft him in the 1st

[nathanq42]

Every year guys get upset and question the process. DD youre the man! I'm trying to trade into the back of the first to pick up foreman now!

No way you should have to draft him in the 1st

My league really odd (fuller went top 5 last year, 3rd overall I believe) no chances I miss out on foreman. Plus they are RB whores so he very well could go that early

[bigchiefbc]

This is interesting to me. I really respect your work DD, and I've been one of the high guys on Cook, and very low on Foreman, and now you have me second-guessing my scouting. I'm going to have to go back and re-examine. And the DLF Premium League's draft is in a week or so, so I better get cracking!

[TTHTD]

Every year guys get upset and question the process.

I mean I guess you have a point. We should all just start swallowing everything any person with a 'mysterious' system capable of an astoundingly implausible 80% accuracy says without question. Otherwise we would have to think for ourselves! and thinking is hard...

[Cameron Giles]

Every year guys get upset and question the process. DD youre the man! I'm trying to trade into the back of the first to pick up foreman now!
One difference between Charles and McCaffrey is the speed, McCaffrey is 4.48/9 Charles was 4.4 flat. That means while McCaffrey has better agility drills and can make people miss (with agility based moves) Charles can punish defenders much much harder once he gets free (which he does with his speed).

For me the pattern is size and/or speed, one cut type guys.

The pattern is speed in relation to your weight and college production. For C-Mac and Cook, they're just not that fast for their height/weight. Many metrics people believe that elite speed is the biggest indictator of RB success. Rotoviz has a similar formula for their RB Prospect Lab, and coincidentally Leonard Fournette and D'Onta Foreman graded the highest.

I can see Cook still being a decent pro, but after we found out he wasn't as agile and explosive as we assumed, a lot of things went out the door.

[clarion contrarion]

so marlon mack? elijah mcguire ? deangelo henderson? just curious

[nathanq42]

Every year guys get upset and question the process.

I mean I guess you have a point. We should all just start swallowing everything any person with a 'mysterious' system capable of an astoundingly implausible 80% accuracy says without question. Otherwise we would have to think for ourselves! and thinking is hard...

Its just that DD has a system and it works (see the results) and he does not have to share. He does this out of the goodness of his heart, he gives his disclaimer as well as pros and cons for the players on the list, stud or dud. The over arching theme in the studly running backs is as Cameron said and I almost hit, the size adjusted speed. Basically the early NFL had it right, get the guy with the right size/speed combo and some skill and let him be a metric beast, and McCaffrey doesn't fit that mold. And as Mr. Delorean says, this is predictive and anything can happen, but looking at the trend of elite running backs metrics, McCaffrey doesn't fit.

Sorry for baring my teeth there, I just really appreciate that DD does this

[Cameron Giles]

Every year guys get upset and question the process.

I mean I guess you have a point. We should all just start swallowing everything any person with a 'mysterious' system capable of an astoundingly implausible 80% accuracy says without question. Otherwise we would have to think for ourselves! and thinking is hard...

It's not gospel, but something like this can be a tool that's apart of your personal scouting process if you understand the point.

A lot of things in the NFL can't be predicted solely on numbers. Numbers can't make coaches use RB's a certain way, or stop injuries, or make players want it more than others. It's simply saying these players (on paper) have the most transparent talent and college production to be difference makers.

If there's an RB you like and he's not on this list, that doesn't mean you should abandon him. If you trust your scouting and have done enough research to believe in the talent, then go for it.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Also had to take take SOMEONE at the dreaded 1.07 spot yesterday, and settled on Hunt. I hope he hits!

Holy crap! Good luck.

Just seems inconsistent. I think you're wrong about CMC,

It's not. Now i'm curious though, how many yards to you expect CMC to rush for in any given season? I was under the impression most people didn't think he would put up gaudy rushing numbers anyway, that most of his value lied in his ability to catch the ball.

Awesome awesome stuff, thank you!

Any notes you can share on Marlon Mack? I'm a fan of his tape and athleticism and trying to acquire him everywhere i can.

Thanks!

I think I watched a game or two of his months ago. I can't remember if it was Mack or McNichols, one of them seemed to be running backwards a lot but my memory is hazy on that. But anyway, didn't find anything of consequence, sorry. There's nobody on that depth chart though so anything can happen. Might have provided a little better details on Mack in an answer below as well.

I can see Cook still being a decent pro, but after we found out he wasn't as agile and explosive as we assumed, a lot of things went out the door.

Pretty much.

so marlon mack? elijah mcguire ? deangelo henderson? just curious

Elijah McGuire was actually really close to the "Dart Throw" grouping. Not quite though.

It's possible Marlon Mack could have been placed somewhere but he didn't do his agility testing so it's hard to say.

[TTHTD]

I'm all for the work that's been done by DD, but presuming to not question someone else's ranking (especially when they won't even provide their reasoning) seems a bit silly to me and I'm skeptical of anyone who claims their system is more successful than any NFL scout has ever been at picking stud RBs. A system that can supposedly predict every stud RB over a decade sounds pretty far-fetched...

The pattern is speed in relation to your weight and college production. For C-Mac and Cook, they're just not that fast for their height/weight.

Then how was Le'Veon Bell predicted as a stud?

Many metrics people believe that elite speed is the biggest indictator of RB success. Rotoviz has a similar formula for their RB Prospect Lab, and coincidentally Leonard Fournette and D'Onta Foreman graded the highest.

That's not true. CMC scored 3rd - ahead of both Mixon and Fournette and they specifically cited his elite athleticism as a reason why: http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/2017-rb-pros ... vid=3vzy42

[Dynasty DeLorean]

A system that can supposedly predict every stud RB over a decade sounds pretty far-fetched...


Then how was Le'Veon Bell predicted as a stud?

Me thinks someone has not read the entire report. I've pretty much answered both of those statements/questions already.