2017 Running Back Report

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
knut45
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby knut45 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:50 am

DD is a stand up gent, as others have said, think he just tired of arguing the minutiae of his work.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Lotto4Life » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:51 am

lukkynumber13 wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:18 pm I didn't like Foreman at all based on his college tape. He looked like Jeremy Hill or Blount, even against the future gym teachers and accountants that are Big 12 defenders.
Be careful factoring this into your player evaluations. In Big 12/SEC bowl matchups, the Big 12 teams scored 8+ points more per game than their SEC opponent gave up on average (including their D2 games). The Big 12 teams held the SEC teams to 4 points less than their average (including their D2 games). The Big doesn't have terrible defenses - they have really good offenses.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby dynastyninja » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:08 am

ericanadian wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:32 am viewtopic.php?f=5&t=87927&p=748553#p748553

I believe this was the original and I think the next two versions had the updated methodology as well. I suspect it's changed a bit since, but you can get an idea of what is being looked at.
Completely forgot about this. I'm satisfied. Keep doing what you do DD

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby CK_ » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:09 am

maxhyde wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:52 am
albedo1986 wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:13 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:46 pm

It means the overwhelming majority of Rb's that have put up multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons (ideally 3+) that I have data for share a common denominator.
No methods means no one can actually understand any of these denominators, which means from the perspective of everyone else here (and the way-too-many football analysts out there) that you're just "calling it how you see it". So unless any explanation of how this was determined I'm just gonna say you have some gut feelings. There's no other way to judge this :doh:
Nobody knows Colonel Sanders secret fried chicken recipe either or the Caramilk secret but they exist and are delicious. You may be skeptical or frustrated because you don't have all the information you like but because the process has not been revealed in full to you(or me) doesn't mean it actually doesn't work.
We do actually know the secret recipe to KFC now!! Someone broke it down a couple years back. It has to do with the frying methods!! Sorry.. I couldn't resist!

We also know the methodology to DDs as well! YAY!
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Luck, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Guice, Ekeler
WR: Diggs, C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Burton, Goedert
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax, Chiefs

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:21 am

Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:51 am
lukkynumber13 wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:18 pm I didn't like Foreman at all based on his college tape. He looked like Jeremy Hill or Blount, even against the future gym teachers and accountants that are Big 12 defenders.
Be careful factoring this into your player evaluations. In Big 12/SEC bowl matchups, the Big 12 teams scored 8+ points more per game than their SEC opponent gave up on average (including their D2 games). The Big 12 teams held the SEC teams to 4 points less than their average (including their D2 games). The Big doesn't have terrible defenses - they have really good offenses.
Eh, idk about that. I'll admit, I don't follow college football to a high degree other than as a factory for producing NFL talent. But off the top of my head I'm trying to think of a single high-end defensive prospect in this year's draft, from the Big12.

Charles Walker had hype and then went undrafted. Nobody from Texas or Oklahoma or Texas Tech. Ejuan Price from TCU?

Not that future NFL draft picks mean everything, but they do show a lot.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:16 pm

The same narrative was brought up by several people of David Johnson about how he didn't face good defenses in college. It's something to take note of, sure... but it's only one piece of the puzzle and in my opinion shouldn't be a deciding factor in how you feel about a player. Level of competition does concern me if the combine doesn't match what we're seeing on the field. For example, "Good" Michael Thomas (i.e. the bad one) looked great against inferior competition, but he tested like a turd at the combine. To me that discrepancy is a big red flag. Foreman, however, tested pretty much exactly how he looked in college.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:28 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:21 am
Lotto4Life wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:51 am
lukkynumber13 wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:18 pm I didn't like Foreman at all based on his college tape. He looked like Jeremy Hill or Blount, even against the future gym teachers and accountants that are Big 12 defenders.
Be careful factoring this into your player evaluations. In Big 12/SEC bowl matchups, the Big 12 teams scored 8+ points more per game than their SEC opponent gave up on average (including their D2 games). The Big 12 teams held the SEC teams to 4 points less than their average (including their D2 games). The Big doesn't have terrible defenses - they have really good offenses.
Eh, idk about that. I'll admit, I don't follow college football to a high degree other than as a factory for producing NFL talent. But off the top of my head I'm trying to think of a single high-end defensive prospect in this year's draft, from the Big12.

Charles Walker had hype and then went undrafted. Nobody from Texas or Oklahoma or Texas Tech. Ejuan Price from TCU?

Not that future NFL draft picks mean everything, but they do show a lot.
Just fact checking myself real quick, the Big 12 had a grand total of ONE defensive player drafted in the first FIVE rounds of the 2017 NFL draft. Jordan Willis in round 3.

I am by no means trying to say that that's a be-all-end-all, but that definitely shows, to some extent, the lack of elite defensive talent in the big 12
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:29 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:16 pm The same narrative was brought up by several people of David Johnson about how he didn't face good defenses in college. It's something to take note of, sure... but it's only one piece of the puzzle and in my opinion shouldn't be a deciding factor in how you feel about a player. Level of competition does concern me if the combine doesn't match what we're seeing on the field. For example, "Good" Michael Thomas (i.e. the bad one) looked great against inferior competition, but he tested like a turd at the combine. To me that discrepancy is a big red flag. Foreman, however, tested pretty much exactly how he looked in college.
I honestly think he looked extremely pedestrian in college tho, which is why it's so weird that he tested amazingly well and is looking quite good to my eyeballs, so far in the NFL!

I own 2 shares in my 3 leagues so trust me, I hope you're right on him! ;)
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:09 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:29 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:16 pm The same narrative was brought up by several people of David Johnson about how he didn't face good defenses in college. It's something to take note of, sure... but it's only one piece of the puzzle and in my opinion shouldn't be a deciding factor in how you feel about a player. Level of competition does concern me if the combine doesn't match what we're seeing on the field. For example, "Good" Michael Thomas (i.e. the bad one) looked great against inferior competition, but he tested like a turd at the combine. To me that discrepancy is a big red flag. Foreman, however, tested pretty much exactly how he looked in college.
I honestly think he looked extremely pedestrian in college tho, which is why it's so weird that he tested amazingly well and is looking quite good to my eyeballs, so far in the NFL!

I own 2 shares in my 3 leagues so trust me, I hope you're right on him! ;)
Heh, I hope I'm right too :pray:

I'll use this dialogue as an opportunity to show one of my favorite runs of his. A couple things about this run;

1) He can carry the ball with both hands. You'd think this is a given, but guys like Tevin Coleman and Devonta Booker didn't, among many others I'm sure. You'll see why this is important later.

2) Balance, to stay upright upon contact from defender.

3) Awareness, to put his hand down to stabilize himself. This is something you see in "little" guys like Ray Rice, rarely do you see a RB 230+ lbs doing this. Now remember when I said he carries the ball in both hands. He has the ball in his left (outside) hand, so he's able to put down his right to stabilize himself. If he only carried the ball in one hand (I assume it'd be his right) he probably would have fell down at the moment of contact.

4) Burst, to regain top speed quickly after contact. Remember this is a 230+ man that essentially was stopped dead, and immediately got up to top speed and sprinted between 2 defenders.

Anyway I'm sure you could nitpick the defenders to death, but this play exemplifies why I liked Foreman as a more nuanced runner than he's been given credit for.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby James McGhee » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:12 pm

So far the box scores have shown Foreman's efficiency hasn't been great - which doesn't worry me at this point but it's definitely got room for improvement.

The stat that I am excited about though is the three straight games of point total increases. His usage is increasing and he's now been a factor in the passing game. Seems he will have a fairly safe floor and a pretty damn high ceiling once he is getting the majority of the carries.

How long til he's usurped Miller?
12 team league; 15 man roster; .5 pt PPR;
QB/RB/2 WR/TE/2 FLX/K/DEF

Tom Brady, Cam Newton
Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones
AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Keelan Cole
Rob Gronkowski
Will Lutz
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12 team league; 30-man roster; full PPR
QB/2 RB/2 WR/TE/3 FLX

Rodgers, Goff, Carr
Bell, J. Stewart, Foreman, Perine
Hopkins, K. Allen, Cooks, Hurns, Kupp, Lee, C. Samuel, Patterson, Taywan Taylor
Howard, Hooper, S. Anderson

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:34 pm

James McGhee wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:12 pm So far the box scores have shown Foreman's efficiency hasn't been great - which doesn't worry me at this point but it's definitely got room for improvement.

The stat that I am excited about though is the three straight games of point total increases. His usage is increasing and he's now been a factor in the passing game. Seems he will have a fairly safe floor and a pretty damn high ceiling once he is getting the majority of the carries.

How long til he's usurped Miller?
Another year or 2 possibly. Or maybe he never becomes a bellcow at all. It's Derrick Henry Lite
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Portsmouth Spartans » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:15 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:34 pm
James McGhee wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:12 pm So far the box scores have shown Foreman's efficiency hasn't been great - which doesn't worry me at this point but it's definitely got room for improvement.

The stat that I am excited about though is the three straight games of point total increases. His usage is increasing and he's now been a factor in the passing game. Seems he will have a fairly safe floor and a pretty damn high ceiling once he is getting the majority of the carries.

How long til he's usurped Miller?
Another year or 2 possibly. Or maybe he never becomes a bellcow at all. It's Derrick Henry Lite
I wouldn't be shocked if HOU wanted to see what they have in Foreman if they are out of the playoffs later this year.... Miller's dead cap drops significantly next year ($8.5mn to $2mn) and HOU could save $4m of cap space by cutting him.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:56 pm

It is like a Murray/Henry situation except Miller is not as good as Murray so the change may come sooner. I can't see Foreman getting much more than a 50/50 split for this year unless Miller gets injured or woefully underperforms. My guess is they probably trust Miller more in pass pro and so that's why I don't think he's going to lose his job outright but for the two reasons listed above. Give Foreman a full offseason to improve his game and I think he could win the job outright next year.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:00 pm

Even despite the low YPA, Foreman still jumps off the page to me in a big way. Reminds me of "good" Eddie Lacy. He offers so much more explosion and power than Miller without sacrificing any speed. But, like most rookies he has to improve pass protection and receiving instincts.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:49 pm

Portsmouth Spartans wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:15 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:34 pm
James McGhee wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:12 pm So far the box scores have shown Foreman's efficiency hasn't been great - which doesn't worry me at this point but it's definitely got room for improvement.

The stat that I am excited about though is the three straight games of point total increases. His usage is increasing and he's now been a factor in the passing game. Seems he will have a fairly safe floor and a pretty damn high ceiling once he is getting the majority of the carries.

How long til he's usurped Miller?
Another year or 2 possibly. Or maybe he never becomes a bellcow at all. It's Derrick Henry Lite
I wouldn't be shocked if HOU wanted to see what they have in Foreman if they are out of the playoffs later this year.... Miller's dead cap drops significantly next year ($8.5mn to $2mn) and HOU could save $4m of cap space by cutting him.
On the cap front, Houston has something like $50 million in cap space next year, with Clowney as the only big resignee (next year is the final year of his rookie contract). I kinda doubt they will cut Miller just for another 8~10% of cap space considering they run 500 times a year.
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